Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum


Results are only viewable after voting.
The immediate personal consequences of Brexit for me? I just put in my application for Hungarian citizenship for myself & my two daughters. Crazy really, but that's how it is. :indiff:
Given the absolute shambles at the border that is already starting to happen, you probably won't be the only one going Hungary in the near future...

getmecoat.gif
 
Biden will insist on an open Irish border. Otherwise, for whatever it matters, there will be no trade deal with the US.
 
Honda UK can't get parts. But Brexit's going okay, of course.

It's going swimmingly! Especially for the car industry!

Oh.. wait...

UK's richest man ... Sir Jim " “Never forget that we have a decent set of cards, Mercedes is not going to stop selling cars in the UK" Ratcliffe, a prominent Brexiteer, decides to buy ex-Mercedes factory in France instead of building in the UK, and also moves to Monaco to avoid paying around 4 billion in taxes to the UK.

Imagine that... a petrochemical billionaire campaigning to leave Union who's environmental regulations he doesn't want to comply with, turns out to be a bit a liar.

...Goddamn this gives me a sovereignty boner! Can ya feel the taking back control!
 
It's going swimmingly! Especially for the car industry!

Oh.. wait...

UK's richest man ... Sir Jim " “Never forget that we have a decent set of cards, Mercedes is not going to stop selling cars in the UK" Ratcliffe, a prominent Brexiteer, decides to buy ex-Mercedes factory in France instead of building in the UK, and also moves to Monaco to avoid paying around 4 billion in taxes to the UK.

Imagine that... a petrochemical billionaire campaigning to leave Union who's environmental regulations he doesn't want to comply with, turns out to be a bit a liar.

...Goddamn this gives me a sovereignty boner! Can ya feel the taking back control!
Of course, when the penny (or should I say the pound) finally drops with ardent supporters of Brexit that they've been sold a pup, guess who will be the ones complaining the loudest.

And it isn't just the Ratcliffes who are fleeing the sinking ship...

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From today's Guardina,

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...bad-keeping-hungary-and-poland-could-be-worse

It will be five years at least, and probably 10, before we see a clear outline of the new relationship between the offshore islands and the continent. By then the EU may be a very different community, and the UK may not exist. In a further referendum that is likely to happen in the next few years, the Scots will decide whether they want to leave the 300-year-old union with England and rejoin the European one. If they vote for independence, despite the attendant economic difficulties, then the UK will effectively cease to be. Any British politician who wants the Scots to stick with the English must soon present a different, federal model of the British union as the alternative to independence. So the choice will be the end of the UK or a new Federal Kingdom of Britain. (Federal United Kingdom produces an unfortunate acronym.)
 
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Remoaners full on toys out of pram this morning, particularly the teary Guardianistas. It was always likely to be no deal and even after "knowing all the facts" in 2019 we still voted in the largest conservative government in over 30 years to action it. Better not to be beholden to the EU and it's regulations with a bad deal for all of eternity.
 
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At this moment, FTSE is down about 0.77% while DAX (Germany) is down about 1.5%. Other EU markets are also mostly down more than UK, Spain by more than 2%. It means very little of course, but I wouldn't bank on it being 'no deal' just yet.

On the other hand, I wasn't for leaving but this attitude and the blatant asymmetry gets right up my nose, and I don't see any way past it:

Mrs von der Leyen said the UK would not be required to "follow" every new rule or product standard imposed by the EU after 31 December.

But if the UK decided to go its own way on some rules, there would be a price to pay with possible tariffs, she added.

"We have repeatedly made clear to our UK partners that the principle of fair competition is a pre-condition to privileged access to the EU market," she said.

"It is the largest single market in the world and it is only fair that competitors to our own enterprises face the same conditions on our own market.

"This is not to say that we would require the UK to follow us every time we decide to raise our level of ambition, for example in the environmental field.

"They would remain free - sovereign, if you wish - to decide what they want to do. We would simply adapt access the conditions for access to our market accordingly, the decision of the UK, and this would apply vice versa."

(BBC)

Would apply vice versa? So if we raised our standards either the EU would follow suit or we could impose tariffs? Yep, I'm sure that would go down well! :lol:

There's no point having a 'deal' if it sets us up for an almost inevitable trade war and provides no stability.
 
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Would apply vice versa? So if we raised our standards either the EU would follow suit or we could impose tariffs? Yep, I'm sure that would go down well! :lol:

There's no point having a 'deal' if it sets us up for an almost inevitable trade war and provides no stability.

A deal would prevent tit-for-tat tariff changes, even if the tariffs were less favourable.

In either case, UK and EU standards are likely to be fairly well aligned, I sincerely hope that we don't get a whole bunch of new GB standards for the sake of it.
 
Remoaners full on toys out of pram this morning, particularly the teary Guardianistas.
Last I checked it was the PM and Leave supporters who were crowing about how easy a deal was going to be and how trouble-free trade with the EU was going to be as an independent state.

Better not to be beholden to the EU and it's regulations with a bad deal for all of eternity.
The trouble is that Boris and the ERG want to have it both ways... they want to be "free" of EU regulations so that the UK can do whatever it wants, while also maintaining full access to the single market which requires exactly the opposite. Frankly, it doesn't take a genius to spot the problem.

The (necessary) choice between the two options is where the ERG and the rest of the party (and indeed the rest of Parliament) split. The ERG would sooner be freed from EU regulations even if it costs us tariff-free and quota-free access to the single market (something the Government have been promising all along)*, while the rest of Parliament understands the need for a deal, which is precisely why the government struggled to get anywhere in Parliament with the Withdrawal Agreement.

What is now likely is either No Deal by design i.e. the PM and the Conservative majority reject the deal being offered by the EU outright, or a No Deal by accident i.e. the ERG reject the deal because it is too 'Soft', Labour because it is too 'Hard', and we've gone past the point of no return when it was possible to extend the transition period.

So No Deal it is, and with it will come a mass exodus of companies, investment and jobs at a time when we can least afford such massive disruption.

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* Indeed, a No Deal Brexit will not be bad for everyone... just the majority/working/middle class. Can you guess who might benefit the most from a No Deal Brexit?
 
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Last I checked it was the PM and Leave supporters who were crowing about how easy a deal was going to be and how trouble-free trade with the EU was going to be as an independent state.

Ah yes, those were the days...

.. It will be so easy to negotiate a trade deal, and of course, it's in the European Union's interest, just as it is in ours... A trade deal with the EU could be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of coffee... You can be sure there will be a deal... There is no plan for no deal because we are going to get a great deal... The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history... we'd hold all the cards


... I mean, it's not like we'll ever hold the people that spouted these lies just to get elected accountable.
 
I sincerely hope that we don't get a whole bunch of new GB standards for the sake of it.
If we do I would be willing to put good money on them not being higher standards than the EU's.

Can you guess who might benefit the most from a No Deal Brexit?
Well that's rather easy, every member of the ERG and all those that have backed and funded its work.

In related, motor industry news, the Ineos Grenadier will now not be built in Wales, but rather France. Which is odd because the brexit backing owner (who now also lives in Europe) had gone to great pains to point out how it will defiantly be built in the UK regardless of brexit.

The argument being that Merc has a factory and workforce (up for sale) ready to built it in France, oddly enough when I asked the question about the same being true right here in Swindon and why they had not gone to Honda they didn't bother answering.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/12/ineos-confirms-grenadier-4x4-will-be-built-in-france-not-wales/#:~:text=Ineos Automotive has announced that,in Wales as previously planned.
 
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A deal would prevent tit-for-tat tariff changes, even if the tariffs were less favourable.

It would require a deal of some sort for any tariffs to be other than those set by the WTO.

In either case, UK and EU standards are likely to be fairly well aligned, I sincerely hope that we don't get a whole bunch of new GB standards for the sake of it.

Indeed they are, and I suspect very likely to remain so whatever happens. The EU claims to be concerned around business aid giving unfair advantage, however as members we seemed to have a reasonable amount of freedom in that regard anyway so I don't buy that being the main sticking point either. More relevant seems to be requirement to follow changes in EU rules. For example, if the EU introduced minimum wage legislation of some kind in the future, then UK could be said to have an economic advantage if we didn't effectively match it. (Not saying that's an example of something bad in itself, it just demonstrates the principle). Another example might be a green agenda requirement.

But, hey, if it's termed as a % of GDP then we won't have much to worry about since business has already left! :ill:
 
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Last I checked it was the PM and Leave supporters who were crowing about how easy a deal was going to be and how trouble-free trade with the EU was going to be as an independent state.

It was plainly obvious a deal was very unlikely as far back as when Theresa May was handling this. She said no deal is better than a bad deal and the EU said there can never be a deal that is better than membership so stalemate, and here we are years on and nothing has changed. Don't know who's been crowing about a deal since then, certainly not the leave voting public, the only crowing has been to get on with it and get us out, not to get a deal.

Any postering from the government that there would be a deal let alone a good one was frankly to give remainers something to cling to, politicians saying sweet words to placate people, fancy that. Leavers didn't expect one, it wasn't even on the ballot. However, didn't hurt to think positively and who knew, maybe the EU would cave but they didn't and hopefully in the next few days neither do we.

At this point I would be more worried about that, us ending up where we legally can never excel in anything above the EU's baseline in standards in everything which is frankly preposterous to tell a sovereign nation to adhere to, especially one that has just broken away for that very reason. If people want to see that as "no deal by design" then it's a bloody good idea.
 
standards in everything which is frankly preposterous to tell a sovereign nation to adhere to, especially one that has just broken away for that very reason.

Sovereign nation? Who? Wales? Scotland? Northern Ireland? England? Or are you talking about the confected "United Kingdom" under a hereditary family who you'll never know?

That's what's preposterous. A couple of weeks since the Bloody Sunday centenary passed largely without mention of the civil war in the UK press and we're still going on about UK being sovereign without any irony at all, without any acknowledgment that the the behaviour of that United Kingdom is abhorrent to a continent that strove for peace and unity after a hundred years of astonishing bloodshed. Just remember that we're crashing out largely on the basis of peace agreements that aimed to fix our slaughter.

England should have zero right to tell other countries what to do, and yet we've forcibly imposed that on other countries, even our neighbours. Very forcibly indeed. If other countries stand together against further efforts of our made up Kingdom to throw its weight about for its own benefit then good for them. This time it seems the UK is only able to hurt its own residents, not that it's been above doing that in the past.

There's so much that's preposterous about this but I don't see the EU doing anything other than was always written down in the agreements. Why is there still surprise from people that this King's archaic domain doesn't make Johnny Foreigner instinctively salute the gunboats?
 
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It was plainly obvious a deal was very unlikely as far back as when Theresa May was handling this. She said no deal is better than a bad deal and the EU said there can never be a deal that is better than membership so stalemate, and here we are years on and nothing has changed. Don't know who's been crowing about a deal since then, certainly not the leave voting public, the only crowing has been to get on with it and get us out, not to get a deal.

Any postering from the government that there would be a deal let alone a good one was frankly to give remainers something to cling to, politicians saying sweet words to placate people, fancy that. Leavers didn't expect one, it wasn't even on the ballot. However, didn't hurt to think positively and who knew, maybe the EU would cave but they didn't and hopefully in the next few days neither do we.

At this point I would be more worried about that, us ending up where we legally can never excel in anything above the EU's baseline in standards in everything which is frankly preposterous to tell a sovereign nation to adhere to, especially one that has just broken away for that very reason. If people want to see that as "no deal by design" then it's a bloody good idea.
You do understand that common standards are an integral part of every trade deal ever struck by every country ever?

If the UK wants to sell to any trade body or country on the planet, then that they will set a standard that those goods or services must meet. That’s what’s being required, not that the UK itself needs to adhere to them internally (that just ends up being an end result often). A good example of this is American food stuffs sold in Europe must meet a higher standard than is in most cases required for the American market.

It has exactly zero to do with sovereignty and certainly doesn't stop the UK from producing goods to or having higher standards than a baseline EU standard. Such a claim is laughably absurd and inaccurate.
 
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It was plainly obvious a deal was very unlikely as far back as when Theresa May was handling this. She said no deal is better than a bad deal and the EU said there can never be a deal that is better than membership so stalemate, and here we are years on and nothing has changed. Don't know who's been crowing about a deal since then, certainly not the leave voting public, the only crowing has been to get on with it and get us out, not to get a deal.
Boris Johnson himself said a deal was 'oven ready' (i.e. ready to go), but neglected to point out the contradiction noted above - that the EU will not accept a deal with the UK that involves the UK diverging from the 'level playing field', which of course is the entire point of Brexit as understood by those who voted to leave...

Any postering from the government that there would be a deal let alone a good one was frankly to give remainers something to cling to, politicians saying sweet words to placate people, fancy that. Leavers didn't expect one, it wasn't even on the ballot. However, didn't hurt to think positively and who knew, maybe the EU would cave but they didn't and hopefully in the next few days neither do we.
The only bit I agree with is the idea that most Leave supporters don't care about getting a deal and in fact many specifically do not want a deal.

But the truth is that No Deal was always a misnomer. Legally there has to be agreement on a whole slew of things, and much of this is already covered in international law by the Withdrawal Agreement (which, you may have noticed, the UK Government are already on the verge of breaking via the Internal Market Bill...). But there are aspects of the WA that require a further deal i.e. a trade deal to be struck in order to avoid bad consequences, like shattering the Good Friday Agreement, and like keeping businesses who depend on frictionless trade with EU states from leaving the UK etc.

What I think many/most Leave voters are failing to appreciate is that failure to strike a deal now only makes it much more likely that we need to strike a trade deal later... and as things get progressively worse in the UK, the less likely it becomes that the EU agrees to a 'good' deal. In other words, there will be a trade deal with the EU eventually, but the longer we hold out for something better than what is on the table now, the more likely it is that we get something worse. Indeed, it may well follow that the UK ends up rejoining the EU without any of the concessions that we previously had.

And, as @TenEightyOne noted above, this doesn't even take into account the likely, if not evitable, constitutional crisis in the UK that Brexit may bring.
 
It was plainly obvious a deal was very unlikely as far back as when Theresa May was handling this. She said no deal is better than a bad deal and the EU said there can never be a deal that is better than membership so stalemate, and here we are years on and nothing has changed. Don't know who's been crowing about a deal since then, certainly not the leave voting public, the only crowing has been to get on with it and get us out, not to get a deal.

Any postering from the government that there would be a deal let alone a good one was frankly to give remainers something to cling to, politicians saying sweet words to placate people, fancy that. Leavers didn't expect one, it wasn't even on the ballot. However, didn't hurt to think positively and who knew, maybe the EU would cave but they didn't and hopefully in the next few days neither do we.

At this point I would be more worried about that, us ending up where we legally can never excel in anything above the EU's baseline in standards in everything which is frankly preposterous to tell a sovereign nation to adhere to, especially one that has just broken away for that very reason. If people want to see that as "no deal by design" then it's a bloody good idea.
Easiest deal in history.
 
Saw this on Reddit, don't know how genuine it is but if it's made up it's very plausible. My favourite bit is that the French system is called "SI BREXIT". I have no other favourite bits, and I'm sure hauliers don't either.

Original article, probably NSFW language,

 
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