- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
- Thread starter Touring Mars
- 6,868 comments
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- 29,078
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
Or back to the 1970's...
(though judging from my music taste, I might actually quite enjoy that...)
- 27,387
- Toronto
- NewAesthetic
- SlipZtrEm
Quite. Watching it from afar, it really does seem like the whole thing could end up upsetting all sides. The Irish Times article @Hun200kmh posted last page was a very interesting read, if not particularly hopeful.
It reminds me of the bullet Canada dodged when we had a referendum about Quebec separating in the mid '90s. I was nine, so I didn't really understand it at the time, but the margin between "Yes" and "No" was 49.42% to 50.58%. Had it happened (and the federal government wouldn't have blocked it), I can't imagine what a mess it would've made of the economy, both within Quebec and across the country.
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
Ahh you beat me to it with the second part
. I quite enjoyed the 70's.I suspect much of the rest of Canada west of Quebec might not have shed a tear given the $hundreds of billions that have flowed into Quebec in the form of Equalization payments over the years. Personally I think we would have been fine and they'd have been begging to come back within a half decade or so, once the realization set in that the government welfare was cut off.
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- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
dp
With respect, that isn’t even a possibility in this instance.
Things either get worse, get a lot worse, or just stay bad, with the hope of slow recovery.
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
Are you new to this thread?
I’ve filled it already with links and statistics to the falling value of the £, the fact that the average household is £900 a year worse off and that last year this was at £400 per house hold.
Companies based in the U.K. are already moving to mainland Europe.
And that a ‘no-deal’ leaves us with ZERO trade deals...
If we leave we have no positives, if we remain, what we’ve lost can theoretically be clawed back...
Damn! Turns out if we had Trump things would have turned out great!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/video/news...sive-interview/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
I was looking to the future not the past. But speaking of the past and the falling value of the £, isn't it true that the £ was in decline before Brexit, basically since 2014 and during the time after that when everyone was predicting there would be no Brexit? And since the post Brexit correction ended in early July 2016, the £ has kept pace in value with the Euro and $US or maybe even improved slightly has it not?
If I remember correctly, when I asked you about statistics, I was told to google it... but because I’m such a nice guy
If your asking why I say that our future is grim and want proof you only have to go through my posts here that contain links.
International companies are leaving, already. EU migration has stalled, meaning we have less nurses and doctors. Our economy is becoming worse and worse off, this will only continue unless we can have economic stability.
If no deal happens (which is what Trump indicated he would do) we would be left with zero trade deals, we currently have over 700.
- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
It means that sometimes people/groups/communities/countries make bad decisions and end up worse than they started. "Progress" is not an unending upwards trend, it is a series of ups and downs that generally go up over a long enough period.
Sometimes a country hasn't learned the lessons of the past well enough, and so they have to go back and do it all over again. The UK will eventually learn that relationships with other countries, particularly their immediate neighbours, are more important than just about everything.
You can tell a child not to touch the stove, but sometimes you just have to let them do it once so that they really learn. This isn't going to destroy the UK, and potentially the lessons that are learned from it's (hopefully somewhat brief) period in isolation will lead to better and stronger relationships with the rest of the world.
- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
If the country is worse off, then the country will eventually act to make itself not worse off. It will do so for reasons related to it being worse off, and hopefully it will remember what those reasons were and why they were compelling for next time.
If the country is not worse off, then congratulations on your new better country.
I see that you're still pretty pessimistic on the potential for people to actually use their own brains.
I’m pessimistic that such things like that are even meaningful.
So in practice, what does that mean?
Does that mean (assuming no deal) we join the euro zone and loose the pound? Does that mean rejoining the Eu and praying they give us back the power we have now? Does that mean deregulating so companies come back (though ofc this then hurts the general rights of individuals)?
Non of these things, would make us better off than we were before the vote.
The only way to undo the damage is for Brexit to be stopped all together, and for government security and stability. Something we are a good way from having.
- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
Where's the rule that you have to be better off than you were before the vote? Like Dotini said, things don't always move forward.
At this point, I doubt that there's anything you can do to undo the damage of Brexit. Even if the UK is allowed back into the EU, you're going to take a hit and are unlikely to be a trustworthy and leading member. It's more of a question of how bad the damage will be. And how long it will last.
So instead of trying to somehow avoid the inevitable, what could you instead do to shorten the period until the UK as a country realises that it's better off either with the EU or with strong mutual obligations to the EU?
So why vote at all then?
Because that was the point of the vote! To make the country stronger and better!!
Like has been widely covered already. For political gain by the political class. Farage wanted to have more power than he did, Cameron wanted to cement his position of power as PM and to crush Euro-skeptics, Boris and Gove wanted to make a run for PM/Tory leader etc etc
Leave never had a clue, never had a plan because the plan wasn’t to leave, it was personal enrichment.
Leaving the EU isn’t inevitable, it can be prevented and this is what I think would be the best option to getting to the U.K. back to where it was.
The EU does benefit from our membership and, if the ‘will of the people’ changed since knowing the facts and reality (which polling has suggested it has), then why would the EU force us to continue? Brexit has been a public humiliation of the United Kingdom, what better message can the EU make to other economically weaker nations?
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- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
Was it? That's not what you seem to be suggesting below.
As so if the point of voting is for political gain by the political class, why are you voting?
Leaving the EU isn't inevitable, but being worse off largely is. If you are allowed to stay in the EU it will almost certainly be with some penalty, because the EU isn't silly.
They also need to make the message that they won't just allow members to yank them around by the Articles. The EU will almost certainly want to make sure that the UK doesn't come back into the EU with no penalty. The last thing they want is to encourage the perception that a country can threaten withdrawal and if it doesn't work simply come back with no cost. Threatening withdrawal shouldn't be no risk, all reward.
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
Yeah, that's not a statistic, that's a data point. I gave you the longer term trends, you gave me a single day. You realize markets go up and down in reaction to events all the time. It's the longer term trends that matter. Now these are statistics:If I remember correctly, when I asked you about statistics, I was told to google it... but because I’m such a nice guy
If your asking why I say that our future is grim and want proof you only have to go through my posts here that contain links.
International companies are leaving, already. EU migration has stalled, meaning we have less nurses and doctors. Our economy is becoming worse and worse off, this will only continue unless we can have economic stability.
If no deal happens (which is what Trump indicated he would do) we would be left with zero trade deals, we currently have over 700.
See that temporary market correction from your cherrypicked data point? See what's happened since? Doesn't look so bad when you don't cherrypick a single data point does it? As I also said, note how the currency was in general decline before Brexit, during the time when it was presumed you wouldn't be going anywhere according to polls. In fact, it almost looks like Brexit was the correction the currency needed and it's stabilized ever since. Can you explain this?
The reason presented to the public for the vote was because Leave/UKIP campaigned claiming we would be better and stronger outside the EU.
The actual reason the vote happened when it did and how it did was for political gain.
Both are pretty well documented.
I agree with the second part, but any penalty the EU could realistically impose (assuming they do), would be better than leaving with no deal.
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- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
It's like politicians are lying to you.
You're still not answering the question though.
Seriously. If you think that voters are unable to form a cogent opinion about their country, and you think that politicians are rigging democracy in their favour to the extent that it wouldn't matter anyway, why vote? It's not like your opinion would make a blind bit of difference among the drooling morons and rampant fraud. All you do is legitimise a system that you believe to be broken.
More to the point, why are you calling for a repeat referendum? That seems insane, given what you've said in the last few posts about voters and the political system.
Yep. Still, there's every chance that your government deadlocks itself into no deal anyway. And any penalty is at least as much of a toss up as a hard Brexit.
- 17,030
- United Kingdom
Pretty much every business deal or arrangement (edit: meant to add, done over the last decade) involving trade with the EU by British companies has been done with the pound in a stronger position.
The currency was at its peak around the summer of 2015, that general decline you mention pretty much coincides with the proposal of the EU referendum bill
I effectively buy Euros every month, whether it's paying for tonnes of materials each month that are sourced for European countries which we use for manufacturing, or for paying the rent on my girlfriends flats in Romania, Italy, Spain or Ireland... and I can promise you there is a very real effect on peoples businesses and lives thanks to these currency 'adjustments'. I'd like to say that the kicking the currency has taken has promoted export but we've not seen it, and speaking to people in our industry, they haven't seen it either - the reason is because with no visibility on future relationships, nobodies committing to anything.
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Personally I think that people believe and buy into easy answers to complex problems they cannot solve.
In the case of Brexit, that problem was immigration. Immigration was THE problem leaving would solve. It was the easy solution to a complex problem. While I don’t have a high opinion of people in general (reality tv’s popularity), I don’t think the vast majority had access to the facts. This, is the key failing of Remain.
That said, every level lied to these people.
It’s easy to be snarky “ohh politicians lying, how novel!” But people believe either the establishment that they like, the anti-establishment they think will fix things or the press (including the totally non-bias BBC).
I also don’t think the politicial-class are rigging anything, if they were Remain would have won, Boris would be leader of the tories with UKIP getting some seats in the Commons.
Brexit was a **** up, a total **** up. You only have to see Farage and BOJO after the results came in that night/morning.
The reason I want another vote is because the reality of what is involved has now reached more people than it had during the campaign. People are loosing jobs and poorer because of it.
Prior to the vote, the EU was this nebulous entity that gave us a shorter line at airport gates and told us how straight our bananas could be (yes that was a thing). People I spoke to prior to the vote who voted Leave, couldn’t see how it would either change anything, or affect them in any real way.
- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
To be fair, it still solves that problem. It gives the UK the ability to control it's own borders, provided that it leaves the EU.
If that's what people wanted, that seems like success.
Yes, it is easy to be snarky with stuff that's such common knowledge that it's a stereotype. I see you're still on board with the "people are too dumb to know anything but what they're told" thing.
So you think that people would vote differently now because they've seen a difference, but if the UK were to actually leave the EU and things were to get worse you're pessimistic that people would actually get any information from that experience?
What?
Can you just marshal yourself for a second and attempt to apply a little rationality to your broad generalisations of the common voter? Either they can learn or they can't. Either they can make rational decisions or they can't.
You don't get to say "well, they'd change their minds for a revote now but if we left the EU I doubt anyone would learn anything".
Only in the most vague and obscure way. I see you're not beyond twisting a few facts to suit your purposes yourself. Grading produce according to quality is not exactly a sign of bureaucracy gone mad, particularly when they're only doing so with wholesale produce, not retail. It's pretty standard practice in every developed country, and it's something that the UK will put in place themselves if they leave the EU.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_Regulation_(EC)_No._2257/94
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromyth#Straight_bananas
If you want to be taken seriously, try not emulating the exact behaviour of the Leave campaign that you claim to dislike so much. You're going to now claim that it's not a lie, and you're right, but think about how that same logic can be applied to claims by the Leave campaign. They didn't lie (for the most part), but a lot of what they said was profoundly misleading in the exact same way as claiming that the EU regulates the straightness of your bananas.
How?
We already have control of our boarders.
My opinion, is that now there it’s clear that Leaving would make people worse off. If we simply left, then all that would do is cause anger and discontent, which can make people’s reactions harder to predict. I apologise if I’m not making myself clear.
I think it’s worth pointing out that, my opinions of the general/common/whatever voter are probably not all that accurate, given how I was convinced that Remain would win as there seemed no clear benefits for leaving. I, like many others was wrong.
I’m trying, to figure out the best way this country can proceed, and from what I understand and have gathered, the only course that could lead us to any sort of success as a nation, would be to remain. Prior to this last week, the only way that seemed likely was another referendum, which, given the fraudulent nature of the last one, seems fair enough.
That fact I brought up about bananas was used to attack the EU by euro-skeptics. It’s why I mentioned it. It was used by Boris Johnson to exemplify ‘bureaucracy gone mad’.
- 13,838
- Adelaide
- Neomone
My bad. My understanding was that being part of the EU meant allowing free movement of EU citizens within the EU. What I didn't know was that the UK (and a handful of other countries) had refused to take part in that. Which is interesting in itself. Today I learned.
As such, yes, you're right. Although this does raise the question...how on earth did they sell anyone over the age of five on border control being a reason to leave? I'd have to imagine that UK citizens would be amply aware that they're not in the Schengen Area. Does the EU have some other policies that the UK was forced to partake of?
I don't get it.
And so your position on this is what? I mean, you didn't have to add in the "yes, that was a thing" if you were just poking fun at BJ. Did you feel the need to remind me and others that it was a thing so that we'd know it wasn't really a thing? I feel like I'm entering referential humour inception here.
I'm on the other side of the world and Boris has to say something really stupid to overcome the Trump tweets in the news here, so I'm afraid it's tough for me to keep up. I'm unlikely to twig to anything that is a UK in-joke without at least a bit of a hint.
The bit you don’t get, is why I also find it hard to understand the average voter with any real precision.
I was merely pointing out the absurd ‘truths’ that where preported prior to Brexit about the EU. Newspapers ran front pages articles about that kind of stuff. Even if people dismiss it, the EU becomes associated with that kind of nonsense, and over time, people believe it. Resentment is built over time.
- 6,047
- Simcoeace
What the numbers clearly show is a massive drop in the value of Sterling immediately follow the Brexit vote. Subsequently, there have been movements up & down against the Euro & US dollar (I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the CDN dollar, which has its own issues), possibly corresponding to optimism on the part of some that Brexit would not, in fact, go ahead, but the Pound at this point remains very significantly lower against the Euro & US dollar than before the Brexit vote.
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
Already acknowledged but you missed the part where the Pound was in decline before the Brexit vote when everyone was thinking and polls were agreeing, that there would be no Brexit. The market went through a brief correction immediately following Brexit and has since stabilized. So this puts a whole new spin on the "value of the pound falling" claim because it isn't falling and hasn't fallen for 2 years, in spite of the massive uncertainty concerning the future of Brexit. A falling currency is good for exports among other things so it isn't necessarily all bad either.
Tired Tyres
Premium
- 12,510
- West Yorkshire
- Tired_Tyres
- Tired Tyres
Interesting economical analysis
