This thread hasn't been getting a lot of attention despite a lot of things going on. I don't blame any of you - it's a pretty scary situation. The newest development is indicative of a protential problem.
the USAF's NGAD program has question marks overhead. Just a couple days ago, an AF chief did not provide the answers anybody expected when asked about program progress. The deadline for contract awards is basically right now, but he said they're still deliberating and dealing with "difficult decisions". The problem here isn't necessarily the program itself, it is
other programs, and the reasons those programs exist, as outlined in this video.
Biggest problem? The China situation is escalating so quickly, and necessary US infrastructure is so far behind them in development, that the military is having to sacrifice next-gen programs to divert money toward things they needed yesterday, like four entirely new bases in the Phillipines. This could indicate that the US expects these bases and other immediate programs to be needed very soon, i.e. they expect conflict to break out sooner than later and infrastructure needs to take top priority. I'm just a dude in a chair but at this point I think and all-out multi-national war could break out in the SCS within five years. The Air Force is shifting gears right now to favor drone swarms and loyal wingmen attached to current platforms which means they need numerical advantage as quickly as possible. This shift toward numerical advantage is worrisome because it means the US military understands just how
dominant China's industrial capacity is and their mezmerizing ability to create numerical advantage. All of our Pacific allies combined coudln't out-produce China.
There have been several serious things that have happened in the SCS recently, notably that the
Chinese Coast Guard has had a physical row with the Phillipines Navy and Coast Guard several days ago. The situation isn't quite as large-scale as most news agencies made it seem - turns out, the confrontation took place in inflatable skiffs as the Filipino soldiers were attempting to deliver supplies inside the Second Thomas Shoal to their beached ship which is constantly manned. Chinese sciffed rammed the Phillipines boats, seized all the supplies, and one Filipino soldier lost a finger. There is a photo of a Chinese soldier aiming an axe toward the Filipino soldiers.
The Chinese also damaged the Phillipine vessels.
This is becoming commonplace and it's ridiculous because the Second Thomas Shoal is within the Phillipines 200nm EEZ. The only parts of any island groups inside the SCS which are in China's EEZ are the northern half othe Paracel islands, while the vast majority of the other islands, including the Spratly Islands, are split between the Phillipines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam. While all these countries have submitted various claims to the UN for arbitration, China simply ignores all these UN rules altogether. It's create a mad rush where all the other countries have had to adopt China's tactics to compete with the lowest bidder.
In other news, China is literally occupying sovereign territory of Bhutan which obviously implicates India.
China's salami tactics are going to lead to a world war. I give it ten years. It'll start in the SCS and eventually involve all countries along the Pacific, including a war between the Koreas, and bring India against China, which will give Russia an opportunity to attack NATO as the US's forces will be split, and Iran and their proxies will go wild, Israel in Lebanon which may implicate Cyprus now as well. Venezuela will be effectively untouchable in Guyana unless the Brits can do something about that. I ain't no fun.
www.cnn.com
