Comet Elenin

[Dotini]

Meet comet Elenin.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2010 X1
http://secchi.nrl.navy.mil/STEREOorbit/C2010_X1.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

It will be here late summer/fall of this year. As it's orbit is better resolved, it's looking increasingly likely to miss Earth, but only by a slim margin - as little as 0.15AU by the latest reckoning. But this could change. We may be bathed in it's debris or X-ray trail. Due to its 38,000 year period, Elenin could have picked up a vastly different electrical charge than what obtains in our solar system. This could imply a very bright, expanded comet. The recent Comet Holmes briefly expanded to a size larger than the Sun. http://www2.ess.ucla.edu/~jewitt/holmes.html
Earth could be subject to electrical discharges affecting electrical equipment and satellites.

Respectfully submitted,
Dotini

 

[Famine]

could ... could ... could ... could ... could ... could

[Hyneman] There's your problem [/Hyneman]

 

[Dotini]

Let's actively hope nothing too bad happens.

But in any case, this will likely be the most spectacular astronomy event in living human memory.

 

[Sureboss]

Consider the curious name Elenin (for discoverer Leonid Elenin, a Russian astronomer). Think E-l-e: Extinction level event. Think E-l-e / n-i-n: Eleven/nine, or 11/9/11, and it is very scary.

Seeking wisdom and correction,
Dotini

Oh give over.

 

[Famine]

Just so you know, 0.15AU is about 60 times the radius of the Moon's orbit. Or 20 times the size of the Sun.

If that distance is above or below the ecliptic, no dice. If it intersects the Earth's orbit it's either fifteen days' Earth's orbit ahead of or behind us. It's 20 Suns away from us.

As for the living memory part? Depends on your age. IRAS-Araki-Alcock made it to within 0.03 AU in 1983, Sugano-Saigusa-Fujikawa to within 0.06 AU also in 1983, Schwassmann-Wachmann to within 0.08 AU in 2006 and Hyakutake to within 0.1 AU in 1996, all within my lifetime. This doesn't even make the all-time top 20.

Rest easy. Hope is not required tonight.

 

[Dotini]

Oh give over.

I specialize in tales told after dark, around the campfire. Do you suppose it's too late for a career in horror fiction?

 

[GT5Junkie]

Google Comet Elenin.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2010 X1
http://secchi.nrl.navy.mil/STEREOorbit/C2010_X1.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

It will be here late summer/fall of this year. As it's orbit is better resolved, it's looking increasingly likely to miss Earth only by the barest of margins - as little as 0.15AU by the latest reckoning.

Looks to me like the latest reckoning is larger than that, and even .15 is 22 million kilometers. When things are projected to pass close to 2 or 3 times the distance between the earth and the moon (~385,000 km) I start getting worried. .23 AU is a small distance on the scale of the universe but a pretty comfortable margin for something like this.

But this could change - even to an impact!

EXTREMELY unlikely. Virtually impossible. If you're worried about something like this then the thought of getting struck by lightning must preclude you from leaving the house ever, because it's a lot more likely.

Recall how Shoemaker-Levy 9 broke up as it approached Jupiter a few years ago?

Yes. I don't think any of those fragments deviated from their trajectory by 22 million km.

Earth could be bathed in gigantic electrical discharges burning up every piece of unprotected electrical wiring on the planet.

Source?

This could imply a very bright, expanded comet. The recent Comet Holmes briefly expanded to a size larger than the Sun! http://www2.ess.ucla.edu/~jewitt/holmes.html

That link is describing a "tenuous dust cloud." I don't think we need to worry about civilization on earth being destroyed by that.

Think E-l-e: Extinction level event. Think E-l-e / n-i-n: Eleven/nine, or 11/9/11, and it is very scary.

Seeking wisdom and correction,
Dotini

What's 11/9/11? It's supposed to be closest on 10/16?

 

[Christhedude]

👍

 

[wfooshee]

Gee-whiz darn shucks, my active hope is all allocated elsewhere, with things that might actually affect my day-to-day life.

Ya know, the Earth passes through comet debris all the time. Some of it is even heavy enough to be noticeable and predictable as meteor showers. I have yet to be knocked on the head, nor has my TV set melted.

Oh, wait, wait, wait!! I got it! This is a space-alien delivery method for chemtrail material, right? OMG!!!11!!!

 

[DQuaN]

Hopefully we'll get some amazing meteor showers from it. 👍

 

[Dotini]

That link is describing a "tenuous dust cloud." I don't think we need to worry about civilization on earth being destroyed by that.

What's 11/9/11? It's supposed to be closest on 10/16?

When astronomer's say "dust cloud", it means plasma, or charged particles.

The closest approach is not the problem - that will fun, and the occasion of parties and celebration. It's what comes afterward that is the issue, the "debris trail" which will also be charged particles, and may involve objects of presently unknown size and character. I think we are on a schedule to enter the debris trail in November.

Since Elenin is still so far away, and will undergo perturbations as it enters the solar system, it is difficult for astronomers to precisely calculate its eventual orbital path.

Respectfully submitted,
Dotini

 

[GT5Junkie]

When astronomer's say "dust cloud", it means plasma, or charged particles.

The closest approach is not the problem

You just said it could hit earth. That's not a problem? Or were you wrong when you said that?

It's what comes afterward that is the issue, the "debris trail" which will also be charged particles, and may involve objects of presently unknown size and character. I think we are on a schedule to enter the debris trail in November.

And why has this never been an issue for the numerous comets that have passed far closer than this one in the last, say, 100 years?

Since Elenin is still so far away, and will undergo perturbations as it enters the solar system, it is difficult for astronomers to precisely calculate its eventual orbital path.

Not really. Potential error is included in the JPLs calculations.

I'm sorry, but your post is ignorant fear mongering, period.

 

[wfooshee]

When astronomer's say "dust cloud", it means plasma, or charged particles.

No, it doesn't. If they meant plasma they would say "plasma." If they meant charged particles they would say "charged particles."

When they say "dust cloud" they mean dust cloud.

The "larger-than-the-sun" measurement is a cloud so not-dense as to be indistinguishable from vacuum for all intents and purposes. Something volatile in its core built up some pressure, and spewed out into space. The spew filled a large volume. Take a rock, grind it up, and fill a hole the size of the sun with that dust. It's a big hole, but seriously, how much rock is in it??!?!?!

To make that a meaningful comparison to the sun, one would have to include solar matter of the same density and concentration, not just the recognized "surface" of the sun, and I'm sure that would span the orbits of several planets.

Your sig says retired Boeing engineer. Airbus is looking better and better . . . . Jus' sayin'.

 

[blaaah]

Elenin
Ears Lungs Eyes Nose Irreversibly Nuked

Inside the comet is a big bomb it's a dead give-away.

 

[Famine]

The closest approach is not the problem - that will fun, and the occasion of parties and celebration. It's what comes afterward that is the issue, the "debris trail" which will also be charged particles, and may involve objects of presently unknown size and character. I think we are on a schedule to enter the debris trail in November.

There's only a debris trail to go through if it passes through Earth's orbit ahead of Earth - and if it does, when we pass the same spot, the nucleus will be another 30,000,000 kilometres (20 Suns) away.

For reference, we pass through a comet debris trail every July (Perseids) and November (Leonids).

Since Elenin is still so far away, and will undergo perturbations as it enters the solar system, it is difficult for astronomers to precisely calculate its eventual orbital path.

It's on a 33,000 year orbit. I'm not exactly convulsing in fright.

 

[GT5Junkie]

your sig says retired boeing engineer. Airbus is looking better and better . . . . Jus' sayin'.

qft.

 

[Dotini]

You just said it could hit earth. That's not a problem? Or were you wrong when you said that?

And why has this never been an issue for the numerous comets that have passed far closer than this one in the last, say, 100 years?

Not really. Potential error is included in the JPLs calculations.

I'm sorry, but your post is ignorant fear mongering, period.

Initial calculations showed that it would miss Earth by .88AU. Now that has dropped to as little as .15AU, and is subject to change from further observations and finer calculations. If it expands to the size of the Sun, like Holmes, then we will be threatened by its corona. We could be hit by the glowing corona of a comet - which are rocky bodies, by the way, and not "dirty snowballs". Since the orbital period of Elenin is so long - 38,000 years - far, far longer than other recent comets, it has spent a considerable amount of time in interstellar space which is of different electrical charge to that of the solar system. Objects of different charge will want to discharge when brought in close proximity.

I'm sincerely sorry if I frightened you. But I do resent the charge "ignorant fear-mongering" as unnecessarily abusive and insulting. I'll answer all your questions to the best of my ability, but I'll ask for patience and some minimal respect, if you please.

Regards,
Dotini

 

[wfooshee]

I refer you again to my analogy of grinding a rock and filling a hole the size of the sun. There is no new rock, the comet didn't magically get bigger. It got very very very un-dense. Our planet has no problem at all passing through vacuum and clouds near enough to vacuum as to make no difference. The solar wind we face all day every day is denser than any gas cloud from a comet.

And it doesn't "glow." Neither does my balding pate. It's lit by the sun.

"Threatend by its corona???!" Puh-lease!!!!!!

Again, it really doesn't matter how big this cloud is, if there's nothing there!!!!! How thick a cloud can you make from a small rock????!!

I really have to agree with GT%Junkie's last sentence.

 

[Dotini]

Time will tell.

I didn't invent any of this - I'm only telling an entertaining and plausible story based on the best sources available to me. It was inevitable that this story broke into the open. I took it upon myself to broach the subject and bear the scorn of the "offended". There is no requirement for you to believe me and my campfire stories from after dark. Do your own research! Ask the highest authorities you can find. Famine isn't worried, so why should you?

 

[Famine]

I'm no metric. I'm never worried.

 

[blaaah]

Famine isn't worried, so why should you?

Yeah but Famine is one of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. The end of the world is the be all and end all.

 

[Dotini]

Yeah but Famine is one of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. The end of the world is the be all and end all.

Blaaah, dear lad, are you on a schedule of medication?

 

[wfooshee]

Time will tell.

I didn't invent any of this - I'm only telling an entertaining and plausible story based on the best sources available to me. It was inevitable that this story broke into the open. I took it upon myself to broach the subject and bear the scorn of the "offended". There is no requirement for you to believe me and my campfire stories from after dark. Do your own research! Ask the highest authorities you can find. Famine isn't worried, so why should you?

It's not all that entertaining, it's not even remotely plausible, it's not a story that "broke," it's a freaking comet, no different than any of the thousands that have been part of our observations for centuries.

How a comet discovery becomes the end of the world and a possible extinction event for a reputedly educated individual is simply beyond my understanding.

 

[Duke]

I didn't invent any of this - I'm only telling an entertaining and plausible story based on the best sources available to me.

I think you need to stop consulting this guy.

 

[Alex p.]

Dangerous or not, I'm looking forward to this, as I never saw a comet come close.

 

[Azuremen]

Dangerous or not, I'm looking forward to this, as I never saw a comet come close.

It won't be visible to the naked eye. What I am reading is it will brightest in September and October at 8th magnitude. 5th is about what the naked eye can see when in the country side, 4th for suburbs, and 2nd for large cities.

And Dotini, for a man that claims to have been an engineer for Boeing, you sure as hell love irrational, out there theories.

 

[Alex p.]

Shame, really wanted to see it.

 

[DKLion3s]

^... Just get yourself a good telescope, they're going cheaply these days.

 

[Azuremen]

^... Just get yourself a good telescope, they're going cheaply these days.

A pair of decent binoculars should suffice, provided the ambient light pollution at his location isn't too bad.

 

[GT5Junkie]

Initial calculations showed that it would miss Earth by .88AU. Now that has dropped to as little as .15AU

Source for both of those numbers?

and is subject to change from further observations and finer calculations.

To go from .23 AU to zero AU? No.

If it expands to the size of the Sun, like Holmes, then we will be threatened by its corona.

No. You say .15 AU (I'm seeing .23 AU). The sun is less than 1/10th of an AU, so even .15 we wouldn't be hit by it. And what you're talking about being hit by is dust, something the earth is hit by constantly.

We could be hit by the glowing corona of a comet - which are rocky bodies, by the way, and not "dirty snowballs".

Dirty snowball is actually a more accurate descriptor than "rocky body" from what I've seen. Mostly ice and dust/small particles.

Since the orbital period of Elenin is so long - 38,000 years - far, far longer than other recent comets

Really? What was the period of the comet in 1760 that came within .07 AU?

it has spent a considerable amount of time in interstellar space which is of different electrical charge to that of the solar system. Objects of different charge will want to discharge when brought in close proximity.

Still waiting for a source that this could result in "Earth could be bathed in gigantic electrical discharges burning up every piece of unprotected electrical wiring on the planet."

I'm sincerely sorry if I frightened you.

Lol, you didn't, trust me.

But I do resent the charge "ignorant fear-mongering" as unnecessarily abusive and insulting.

If the shoe fits...

I'll answer all your questions to the best of my ability,

Doesn't seem like you're doing that to me, seems like you're ignoring half of them.