The good news is Johnson and Johnson should have approval for its vaccine by next month, which would introduce a third contender into the mix. I have no idea how much of the vaccine it's manufactured though. If they only have a few million doses that's not really going to do much. I'm also not sure what it takes to actually formulate the vaccine either. Some vacs can be manufactured relatively quickly while others take a really long time.
At any rate, given what our numbers are today in America we've administered 12,279,180 first doses to people over the course of 32 days. That works out to be 384,000 doses per day. Given that rate, we're looking at 583 days to vaccinate 70% of the country with the first dose. Things were speeding up, but now that the stockpile has dwindled, that daily administered number is likely to fall. Depending on how long the lull is, 2022 might even be a stretch and it'll be more than likely 2023 before we reach the level of 70% vaccinated. This also assumes that the vaccines we have continue to be effective, which they might not. It would be really disheartening to get 30% of the population vaccinated only for the process to begin again from square one.
It's looking more and more that we will achieve heard immunity before vaccination immunity, which means the hospitals are going to continue to be overwhelmed and people are going to continue to die.