COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

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Good. My work was sticking with "if the CDC says so" about masks, so hoping they will back down a bit. I've already stopped wearing mine while sitting at my desk.
I'm not so willing to just throw it out the window just yet, or in the foreseeable future. I know a ton of people at work who still dont have either Vaccine, so all we'd be doing is putting each other at risk, them more so. It really doesn't make sense for us to just up and relax all of a sudden.
 
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I’m going to keep wearing it for now, at least until Michigan gets more people vaccinated. Still, maybe this will help get some of the hesitant people to go ahead and vaccinate.

Yeah I'm going to keep wearing mine whenever I go out shopping etc. for the foreseeable future.

When I saw this news yesterday, for a split second I thought this might be a sly trick by the CDC to get anti-maskers to actually wear one. You know, "the gubment can't tell me not to wear a mask, that's agin my freeduuuuummmmm". But then I remembered it said people who acutally have been vaccinated which leaves them out.
 
This really surprises me... not that anti-maskers are throwing tantrums (that is entirely as expected), but the hypocrisy that these people are almost certainly in the same camp as those who believe that government has no business dictating what private business owners can and can't do... shouldn't they be in favour of letting business owners decide their own policies?

I get that anti-maskers have a problem with government mask mandates (even though they shouldn't have), but continuing to have a problem with businesses that voluntarily adopt their own mask rules...? That makes no sense whatsoever - but, again, I suppose it isn't really all that surprising given that the majority of these people are thick as pig feces in the neck of a bottle to begin with.
Freedom for me but not for thee.



One of the comments made me grin: "$2000 bond to own the libs."

I'm not sure when I'll go grocery shopping, or other kinds of shopping, without a mask again... but probably not this year. Regardless of what the stores require. And not just because of covid.
I'm right there with you. Even once we're through this (I mean...I'm expecting us to be looking back on it at some point), I expect I'll continue to mask up when I'm in moderately to heavily populated areas and in close quarters (some of those aspiration studies made the corners of my mouth curl), at bare minimum during cold and flu seasons. It's a hilariously minor inconvenience.

I've got my first in-person meeting at work (work-from-home is still broadly implemented) next Thursday and we've already been advised masks are going to be required in the building.
 
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Yeh, me too. I want to get value for money from my McLaren FP3 mask for a kick off...

... but seriously, there is reason to be worried about the impact of other viruses that have been all but wiped out thanks to COVID restrictions, but that will return with a vengeance once restrictions are lifted... but this time without the 'normal' levels of immunity.

-

Party season here in the UK (i.e. when pubs are supposed to reopen in most places starting Monday) may well be a lot shorter than a lot of people - including Boris Johnson - were hoping for.

It all depends on how many cases that result in hospitalizations, illnesses and deaths with the vaccines compares to how many would have happened without them. This differential (though quite hard to measure) will be critical, not just for the coming summer months, but possibly for a very long while beyond (if not permanently).

The timing of lifting of restrictions and the emergence of a dangerous new variant is almost a case of deja vu - the last time the UK did this, the B.1.1.7 variant was just taking off, and led to an enormous second wave of cases. Now, the B.1617.2 variant (one of three currently rampaging through India) is taking hold, just as the UK comes out of another 4+ month-long lockdown. It is not a question of whether cases might start shooting up again - they will... but it remains to be seen whether this 'third wave' may be stopped in its tracks by a combination of natural and induced immunity, hence it could be a (much) smaller 'wave' - on the other hand, it might not be any less bad than the second wave, or (heaven forbid) even worse.
 
Gov. Cox is really living up to his namesake by just saying: "You know what? The CDC said vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks, but I think they really meant no one needs to wear masks. So let's just get this gosh dolly darn party going!"

Of course, we have only about 40% of the state vaccinated so nowhere near a number that's meaningful. And, of course, we have a mind-numbingly large number of really stupid people who think that private businesses don't have the right to tell people they have to wear masks. I had to pop off to Target this afternoon and the young kid working the front of the store was having none of it. I've never seen a Target employee act that forceful about anything, and he was about 6'3" and 250lbs so he wasn't exactly someone you'd get in the face of.

My faith in humanity continues to falter by the day. But hey at least 12+ can get vaccinated today starting today at my place of work...or they could if the state government wasn't hoarding Pfizer vaccines since our governor embraces his namesake. We have some, but the state is trying to force Moderna on us and we're not having it, especially me since that means roughly 60-80 hours worth of work on my end to make that happen.

Ok, rant over.

In other news, I'm getting an award for my work on COVID testing and vaccine scheduling/access for patients. I'm sure it's a generic corporate award but at least someone thinks I'm doing an OK job. I think I get $250 Amazon dollars too which I'm never going to look down on.
 
Congrats on your award and well done @Joey D.

That Target front of store kid sounds like he's also doing a fine job. At least mask scepticism isn't a universal delusion in Mormon country. Loving these constant Cox jokes as well.
 
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I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like this removal of mask requirements will backfire. Maybe if they completely closed the borders for “hot spot” countries, including US citizens flying in from there, it could kind of work, but we still don’t have good data on the vaccine efficacy against the new variants. Even then, we are still at a relatively low overall number of vaccinations to go back to normal, which is what this latest mask lift kind of is. Since nobody will be checking whether you are really vaccinated or not, I’m sure many unvaccinated people will not wear a mask. I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’ll be back to masks required in a few months time.
 
In terms of behind closed doors or incomplete reporting, absolutely. Clicking through from the first article you linked (which mentions Daszak being involved with it and quoted defending the work), to the 2013 paper (Zhengli-Li Shi again) and then through to the 22 May 2020 correction, you'll see that the sequence for the chimera was not registered with the gene bank until 2 May 2020. It's reasonable to assume the registration was done in response to those making a point out of its unregistered state in their theories.

The most useful form of gain-of-function studies would presumably mimic possibilities found in nature. Coronaviruses are apparently prone to recombination and purifying selection, with that article focusing on how a bat CoV might have combined with a pangolin CoV (inside a pangolin). It's dense and I don't claim to understand the details, but it is possible to get the gist of how recombination can be analyzed and what it can do. Were that process engineered in a lab, I doubt it would be possible to identify.

But since the 2013 experiment confirmed that they could indeed create an infectious and harmful virus as predicted from theory, would that not reduce the need to produce more examples? There isn't any real hint of evidence that they continued that line of study (apart from by simulation, I mean).

Overall I don't think there's good reason to focus on it being a lab leak of a virus that was created or blended in the lab - while possible, it's difficult to make that link there without knowing (or having solid candidates for) the viral ancestors and without finding that other connections between them are not more plausible.

It's also possible - but pure speculation - that the lab somehow inadvertently leaked an otherwise relatively harmless virus which went on to blend in some market animals. Pangolin-related theories seem to come in and out of favour, but it's known that they carry a CoV that readily infects via ACE2. As that paper about recombination showed, the right mix of ancestors may have produced covid. The problem, it seems to me, is adequately explaining how (for example) a bat virus from Tuanguan could come to infect a Malayan Pangolin carrying a Pan-CoV that had the possibility of being a covid ancestor.

There's reasonable confidence that the OG SARS developed in palm civets, first cases were at a market handling them, etc. I don't know if / how confidently ancestor virus candidates have been identified for it. There was, in April 2004, a small cluster that was identified as starting with a post-grad student and a researcher in a Chinese CDC lab, so lab leaks certainly can happen even when people know they are working with a dangerous virus.

Well that's probably enough crazy talk from me... there needs to be more pieces of the puzzle on the table before anything is more than speculation. I can agree with abandoning any investigation at the lab (there's surely nothing left to find there after more than a year, if there ever was anything) but not with ruling it out.

While it was inevitable that some pandemic would come along, any particular pandemic requires it's own sequence of - probably each extremely unlikely - unique events to unfold just right.




As if nothing had been learnt froms SARS (and MERS)? And this wasn't speeding from the beginning? OK.
Perhaps a little bit more for you on that research.
 
Gov. Cox is really living up to his namesake by just saying: "You know what? The CDC said vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks, but I think they really meant no one needs to wear masks. So let's just get this gosh dolly darn party going!"

Of course, we have only about 40% of the state vaccinated so nowhere near a number that's meaningful. And, of course, we have a mind-numbingly large number of really stupid people who think that private businesses don't have the right to tell people they have to wear masks. I had to pop off to Target this afternoon and the young kid working the front of the store was having none of it. I've never seen a Target employee act that forceful about anything, and he was about 6'3" and 250lbs so he wasn't exactly someone you'd get in the face of.

My faith in humanity continues to falter by the day. But hey at least 12+ can get vaccinated today starting today at my place of work...or they could if the state government wasn't hoarding Pfizer vaccines since our governor embraces his namesake. We have some, but the state is trying to force Moderna on us and we're not having it, especially me since that means roughly 60-80 hours worth of work on my end to make that happen.

Ok, rant over.

In other news, I'm getting an award for my work on COVID testing and vaccine scheduling/access for patients. I'm sure it's a generic corporate award but at least someone thinks I'm doing an OK job. I think I get $250 Amazon dollars too which I'm never going to look down on.

You could buy a lot of Jelly of the month certificates with that $250
 
The bubble has been officially burst in Taiwan, 333 confirmed cases today, in reality I would say it's at least 10 times more cases as their citizens simply flat out refuses to do a proper test, and has been this way since the pandemic started.
 
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Today marks the official start of Phase 2 vaccine rollout here in South Africa, where over 60s and people with comorbidities can register online to get jabs. So, I went online last night to get my parents registered...

...Only to walk away with one my biggest worries fully confirmed.

A few months ago, I said something about how the undocumented migrants, the so-called illegal aliens, would get vaccinated. Well, in South Africa, they won't get vaccinated, at least from what I gathered from the online registration form.

You need either a South African identification document (which the undocumented migrants don't have, hence the 'undocumented' part), or passports from their countries of origin (which they would also probably don't have, hence them being here "illegally") or SA gov-issued refugee status form (which is as hard as plucking stars from the night sky) in order to register. No other avenues.

I don't know for sure just how many undocumented migrants are living in SA, but I can tell you for certain they all stay in densely-populated urban centres which happened to be extremely poor neighbourhoods, as well. Any outbreak of COVID-19 in those areas...

My government just can't stop dropping the ball, it seems. Their capacity to disappoint me never ceases to amaze me.
 
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Well, just had Jab 1. My local Boots did it and it was a well organised affair. Hats off to them for helping out. Astra Zeneca now in the arm and working its way into the system.

Hoping for a mild reaction, however from what I’ve heard it’s like mild flu/cold symptoms with a aching arm.

A work colleague had his last week and it hit him like a train. So who knows.
 
Perhaps a little bit more for you on that research.


The article by Nicholas Wade certainly seems to pull together a lot of the available information and is well written. It would appear that every point made could be verified (should one have the time). What I can't really judge is whether there are possiblities on the natural emergence side of the conjecture that have been omitted as they are not yet known, or whether claims about what natural evolution would be highly unlikely to do are over-stated.

Anyway, while it looks all the more plausible, we're still unlikely to get any actual proof. TBH that's fine - it only needs to be accepted as a possibility for there to be a chance that lessons can be learned.

Proponents of gain-of-function research like to point out that such viruses could occur in the wild, and that research is done under the most secure conditions. That argument has some merit, particularly if work is also done to develop treatments and/or vaccines simultaneously. But it already has a debatable risk/reward profile, so if any part of what the proponents claim is untrue I think such research has no merit. Knowing the likely changes needed to make a virus highly infectious to humans is one thing, artificially engineering one in ways highly unlikely to occur in nature seems pointless at best.
 
Hoping for a mild reaction, however from what I’ve heard it’s like mild flu/cold symptoms with a aching arm.

A work colleague had his last week and it hit him like a train. So who knows.
Everyone has been hit differently by the vaccines. Good luck but even if it does hit hard, the symptoms don't last very long. 👍
 
A work colleague had his last week and it hit him like a train. So who knows.
I'm not a virologist but I suspect the difference is down to the number of antibodies already present in your bloodstream. Maybe hereditary and congentinal factors count too though? *shrugs*
 
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TB
Everyone has been hit differently by the vaccines. Good luck but even if it does hit hard, the symptoms don't last very long. 👍


I'm not a virologist but I suspect the difference is down to the number of antibodies already present in your bloodstream. Maybe hereditary and congentinal factors count too though? *shrugs*


Yeh it seems to be a lottery of how people react. My partner had hers in March and had little reaction. Just a heavy sore arm and a headache for a day or so.

5 hours in and nothing to report my side.
 
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Party season here in the UK (i.e. when pubs are supposed to reopen in most places starting Monday) may well be a lot shorter than a lot of people - including Boris Johnson - were hoping for.

It all depends on how many cases that result in hospitalizations, illnesses and deaths with the vaccines compares to how many would have happened without them. This differential (though quite hard to measure) will be critical, not just for the coming summer months, but possibly for a very long while beyond (if not permanently).

The timing of lifting of restrictions and the emergence of a dangerous new variant is almost a case of deja vu - the last time the UK did this, the B.1.1.7 variant was just taking off, and led to an enormous second wave of cases. Now, the B.1617.2 variant (one of three currently rampaging through India) is taking hold, just as the UK comes out of another 4+ month-long lockdown. It is not a question of whether cases might start shooting up again - they will... but it remains to be seen whether this 'third wave' may be stopped in its tracks by a combination of natural and induced immunity, hence it could be a (much) smaller 'wave' - on the other hand, it might not be any less bad than the second wave, or (heaven forbid) even worse.

It's looking like the B.1.617.2 wave won't be anything like as bad as the B.1.1.7 wave thanks to vaccination, and estimates of how much more infectious it is seem to be dropping. I don't think we'll see a large increase in hospitalisations directly because of it.

In which case, we're back to the original risks of a vaccine-evading variant emerging (perhaps made more likely by there now being two starting points, but almost inevitable anyway) and the South African or Brazilian variants becoming widespread here.

Vaccinations... on one hand they appear to be more effective than anticipated and take-up has been mostly very good, on the other we're now well behind on first doses thanks to the various supply issues. How much behind? Back of envelope calc says over 10 million doses so far, if they had hoped to continue at the same rate of first doses.

I'm nervous about what happens with cases etc over the next few weeks, but at this point almost as nervous of any knee-jerk reaction to them rising! (beyond delaying and/or modifying the next relaxation, that seems almost certain if we haven't first-dosed all adults by then).
 
Vaccinations... on one hand they appear to be more effective than anticipated and take-up has been mostly very good, on the other we're now well behind on first doses thanks to the various supply issues. How much behind? Back of envelope calc says over 10 million doses so far, if they had hoped to continue at the same rate of first doses.

Well the US is rolling off. If that helps. US-wide data is way down from the peak, Colorado in particular looks like it peaked in terms of vaccine administration mid-April. I don't think it's due to supply either, we have a decent portion of the eligible population vaccinated.
 
Here in Alabama a lot of the businesses are dropping the mask mandate. Sam's Club, Costco, Walmart, Publix have all dropped it.
 
I don't think they're identical approaches.
I don't think they're targeting the same outcome from they're particular treatments either. Similar, but not the same. The Pfizer one seems more like a morning after pill whereas the joint Brisbane/US developed one is not only targeting people already with the virus but also ''those who may perhaps be in danger of being exposed to the virus, such as those in hotel quarantine.''
 
Well the US is rolling off. If that helps. US-wide data is way down from the peak, Colorado in particular looks like it peaked in terms of vaccine administration mid-April. I don't think it's due to supply either, we have a decent portion of the eligible population vaccinated.

I don't know if it helps, I'm still nervous :) It will certainly be interesting to see what happens in various states - particularly with the differing take-up rates and whether that inversely correlates with hospitalisation rates.

As far as UK supply goes, it seems stable, just much slower than hoped for... 10+ million doses would cover almost all remaning first doses for adults, I think. That will be a notable milestone when we get to it, but at current rates we're looking at 2 to 3 months (we've just started doing 35+ year olds, so 12 to 16 million first doses to go, but only ~125k first doses per day).

It's not that I'm concerned about serious illness in the 18 to 35 age group particularly, just that it's an obvious group for transmission in pubs (now) and nightclubs (maybe on 21st June). (There's one key difference between UK supply issue vs US 'reluctance'; the demographics). The potential problem would be emergence of new variant(s) from that transmission.
 
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