COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Touring Mars]

Sad to learn of the tragic death of Van Morrison's reputation. His career was also critically injured.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57443478

 

[Nexus]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05...a-s-covid-vaccine-rollout-timetable/100156720

This is an absolute joke... while we initially handled the pandemic reasonably well (and only because of our state governments taking over the federal government's responsibility of pretty much everything - quarantining returning travellers etc. is in the Australian Constitution, Scotty from Marketing just didn't want to do anything), here we are still having to go into lockdowns because the federal government has once again dumped their responsibility of something (the vaccine rollout, in this case) onto our individual state governments.

I genuinely feel that by the time the rest of the world has returned to "normal", we're going to keep experiencing these cycles of:
eased restrictions -> lockdown because of new cases -> high restrictions -> eased retrictions
for another year at least.

(No I don't question the effectiveness of lockdowns, I'm just mad that we keep being forced to do them because of the incompetence of the federal government)

 

[Joey D]

Judge tosses lawsuit against Houston hospital over staff vaccine mandate



Serves these people right. Imagine being a highly trained medical professional and refusing a life-saving vaccine that's not only go to protect you, but also your patients. These people who are against the vaccine because they don't want to be guinea pigs are a special kind of stupid. While we haven't made mass vaccines with mRNA technology before, it's not like it's a new idea. Research began back in 1985 on mRNA and vaccines have been in various stages of development since 2005. If mRNA had started being researched in 2018 or something, I would say sure, these people have a case, but something that's been in process for over 30 years? Give me a break.

I know I've mentioned this before, but I'll say it again. Virtually every healthcare system in the US requires you to be current on your vaccinations as a condition of employment. It's something you know up front and before you sign your papers to be officially hired on. Sometimes there are ways around it, for example where I work now if you don't want an influenza vaccine you must wear full PPE for the duration of flu season. However, I'm not really sure what you could do for COVID. I guess you could be required to wear a full biohazard suit or something like that. Or I suppose you could refuse the vaccine, but if you get COVID you must take two weeks off without pay and if any of the patients you've cared for get hospital-acquired infection of COVID, then you face disciplinary action and could be subjected to malpractice lawsuits.

Also, I'm positive Texas isn't a right-to-work state. This means that a company can terminate you for pretty much whatever reason they want.

In short, people are the goddamn worst.

 

[Touring Mars]

Given how precarious healthcare can be in the US for the uninsured, how does refusing to be vaccinated jive with health insurers? I bet it doesn't go down very well at all.

Meanwhile, here in the UK, "Freedom Day" () is set to be delayed by four weeks in a totally unexpected and not-completely-predictable-at-all turn of events.

 

[Joey D]

Given how precarious healthcare can be in the US for the uninsured, how does refusing to be vaccinated jive with health insurers? I bet it doesn't go down very well at all.

We haven't seen anything yet regarding health insurance, but I'm guessing that could be a thing. Policies typically change either in July or with the start of a new calendar year so I suspect we will start seeing something soon if it's going to happen. I can't see anything happening this year though, but by next year it could be a real possibility. What's likely to happen is that you'll receive a discount on your premiums if you're vaccinated.

Some life insurance companies are telling members that they could lose coverage, have increased premiums, or have their family flat out denied if they don't get the vaccine and die as a result of COVID or a COVID-related illness.

 

[Blitz24]

We haven't seen anything yet regarding health insurance, but I'm guessing that could be a thing. Policies typically change either in July or with the start of a new calendar year so I suspect we will start seeing something soon if it's going to happen. I can't see anything happening this year though, but by next year it could be a real possibility. What's likely to happen is that you'll receive a discount on your premiums if you're vaccinated.

Some life insurance companies are telling members that they could lose coverage, have increased premiums, or have their family flat out denied if they don't get the vaccine and die as a result of COVID or a COVID-related illness.

The last part seems kind of harsh. If everyone but one person in my family gets the vaccine and the lone anti-vaxxer succumbs, the entire family gets punished. I guess the proactive part is to drop them from the plan altogether.

 

[Outspacer]

Meanwhile, here in the UK, "Freedom Day" () is set to be delayed by four weeks in a totally unexpected and not-completely-predictable-at-all turn of events.

It's four weeks... but it could be two weeks

Don't recall Boris mentioning weddings in the announcement, but in response to a question he said that the restriction of 30 attendees would be lifted on the 21st

In the response to a question about getting two doses done for university students there was no mention of any speed-up of giving second doses once all first-doses have been done

All in all, given how much of a complete surprise this delay was, I'll forgive the lack of preparation

 

[TexRex]

Also, I'm positive Texas isn't a right-to-work state. This means that a company can terminate you for pretty much whatever reason they want.

It actually is--shocking as that may be. It has been for nearly three decades.

But whether an employer in the state may terminate an individual under its charge for failing to vaccinate remains to be determined.

The Texas executive and legislature are solidly Republican and the GOP is ****ing insane, so SB968, a legislative measure seeking to prohibit vaccination as a condition for employment under threat of revocation of state contracts or state-issued permits, was rammed through Congress and signed into law by Abbott. It's hard to not look at this as a product of the Republican party grabbing ankle for its bronzer daddy, likely still believing COVID was drummed up to make him look bad.

It'll be interesting to see where things go. A supposed Houston Methodist v. Texas may be just the case through which a decision is made.

Edit: By the way, I posted on this over in the America thread. Not trying to call "first" or anything petty like that, but that may be the more appropriate place to discuss it since it's not explicitly concerning COVID.

 

[DG_Silva]

I had my second dose this lunchtime, absolutely fine apart from being able to read my text messages without looking at my phone...

Joking aside, no ill effects at all, not even a sore arm.

 

[Danoff]

I had my second dose this lunchtime, absolutely fine apart from being able to read my text messages without looking at my phone...

Joking aside, no ill effects at all, not even a sore arm.

For Pfizer, I've seen plenty of examples that took up to about 18 hours before chills set in.

 

[Touring Mars]

It's four weeks... but it could be two weeks

Don't recall Boris mentioning weddings in the announcement, but in response to a question he said that the restriction of 30 attendees would be lifted on the 21st

In the response to a question about getting two doses done for university students there was no mention of any speed-up of giving second doses once all first-doses have been done

All in all, given how much of a complete surprise this delay was, I'll forgive the lack of preparation

Johnson was clearly rattled today - he made two massive blunders in his main speech - saying 'company' instead of 'country' (oops) and July 29th instead of 19th (oops) at least once, and he stumbled his way through those answers.

What is worse is that he must know that there is little to no chance of bringing July 19th forward, and a strong chance of having to push it back even further.

I read a story about the Speaker being furious about being misled in Parliament this afternoon too, a very serious allegation and it is seemingly about the way the Government has decided on its current course of action.

It's been a mare of a week for Boris - the G7 summit was a damp squib, the NI protocol is becoming more and more of a problem, and 'Freedom Day' is cancelled. And the trouble is, none of it is going away any time soon. He's painted himself into a very tight corner here.

 

[TexRex]

'company' instead of 'country' (oops)

Awkward. Isn't that a nickname for the royal family?

 

[UKMikey]

Awkward. Isn't that a nickname for the royal family?

I believe they refer to themselves internally as "The Firm".

 

[Stotty]

Johnson was clearly rattled today - he made two massive blunders in his main speech - saying 'company' instead of 'country' (oops) and July 29th instead of 19th (oops) at least once, and he stumbled his way through those answers.

What is worse is that he must know that there is little to no chance of bringing July 19th forward, and a strong chance of having to push it back even further.

I read a story about the Speaker being furious about being misled in Parliament this afternoon too, a very serious allegation and it is seemingly about the way the Government has decided on its current course of action.

It's been a mare of a week for Boris - the G7 summit was a damp squib, the NI protocol is becoming more and more of a problem, and 'Freedom Day' is cancelled. And the trouble is, none of it is going away any time soon. He's painted himself into a very tight corner here.

Probably still drunk from partying at the weekend with the great and good.

He’s run roughshod over democracy throughout the whole COVID **** up, and somehow thought he was going to get away with an the exit agreement even a blind man could see would cause issues with Ireland (both Belfast and Dublin).

He’s an embarrassment. Unfortunately it’s a trait that seems to be shared throughout the current crop of senior politicians across all parties.

 

[TexRex]

I believe they refer to themselves internally as "The Firm".

That's the one. I misremembered.

 

[Outspacer]

Johnson was clearly rattled today - he made two massive blunders in his main speech - saying 'company' instead of 'country' (oops) and July 29th instead of 19th (oops) at least once, and he stumbled his way through those answers.

What is worse is that he must know that there is little to no chance of bringing July 19th forward, and a strong chance of having to push it back even further.

I read a story about the Speaker being furious about being misled in Parliament this afternoon too, a very serious allegation and it is seemingly about the way the Government has decided on its current course of action.

It's been a mare of a week for Boris - the G7 summit was a damp squib, the NI protocol is becoming more and more of a problem, and 'Freedom Day' is cancelled. And the trouble is, none of it is going away any time soon. He's painted himself into a very tight corner here.

I noticed the blunders but wasn't sure if they were his mistakes or typos in the script. The later stumbling hints that they were indeed his mistakes, and 'company' is such an odd one.

The speaker appears to have good reason to be cross! Four week delay has been reported as fact since yesterday, and apparently there was an embargo... on some details? Don't seem to be many further details reported on BBC now aside from the restriction of 30 at weddings and wakes being lifted.

It's exactly as I predicted over two weeks ago, weddings and all. Not claiming to be special as I certainly wasn't the only one! I suppose Boris had to wait until hospital admissions had already gone up to make his decision, in blind hope that things would still go swimmingly, but that needn't have precluded a 'what if' discussion in the house. (Who will now have to vote on essentially a fait accompli).

The data presented seemed to be rather selective - biased towards supporting the implication that this will be the last delay - and in one case I'd say actually deceptive: the stats on the protective effect of vaccines were, IMO, knowingly over-stated, representing a distinctly 'best-case' view. (Per previous posts on the mix of vaccines and their effectiveness, I don't think what was said can be supported).

This lack of transparency is bad, of course, but also pointless. Those who have been paying attention have probably already modified their behaviour to some extent, and those who haven't probably wouldn't anyway. I'm assuming such lack is an attempt to get people out to the shops, etc, etc for economic reasons, but doubt it will have the intended effect.

 

[Stotty]

Wouldn’t be claiming to be a clairvoyant or anything - pretty much everyone knew what was going to happen.

Today was exactly the same as every other Boris bad news press conference over the past year - start leaking snippets to the governments official COVID propaganda machine (the BBC) around a week out, then give them everything in detail the day before.

Only difference this time was the presser was on a Monday so everything was leaked to the BBC on Friday... leaving Boris free to go and have a lovely ‘covid secure’ party with some chums for a couple of days.

Then as usual, Boris rocks up to the press conference, completely unprepared, mumbles a series of ‘alases’ and lets that ****wit Whitty present some data he’s made up to scare the general public.

It would be hilarious if it was another countries PM doing it. Less amusing when it’s your own.

 

[Touring Mars]

I'd agree with most of that except the bit about Chris Whitty fabricating data... that's a provably false claim and it's very unfair.

I agree with @Outspacer that, if anything, Whitty was downplaying the data.

 

[Outspacer]

Maybe I gave the wrong impression - despite all my criticism, I think the four week delay is appropriate. I would've gone further, mandating or at least recommending masks in schools. And I don't think weddings are a great idea either, with a majority involved being unvaccinated or only single dosed.

Whitty's data certainly wasn't "made up", and rather than aiming to scare the public was there to support the implication that this would be the last delay. Even there I may have been too harsh in my criticism, since apparently some new data was published today that supports what he said (however this wouldn't have been known when the press briefings went out, so couldn't have been basis for any decision).

 

[McLaren]

Judge tosses lawsuit against Houston hospital over staff vaccine mandate



Serves these people right. Imagine being a highly trained medical professional and refusing a life-saving vaccine that's not only go to protect you, but also your patients. These people who are against the vaccine because they don't want to be guinea pigs are a special kind of stupid. While we haven't made mass vaccines with mRNA technology before, it's not like it's a new idea. Research began back in 1985 on mRNA and vaccines have been in various stages of development since 2005. If mRNA had started being researched in 2018 or something, I would say sure, these people have a case, but something that's been in process for over 30 years? Give me a break.

I know I've mentioned this before, but I'll say it again. Virtually every healthcare system in the US requires you to be current on your vaccinations as a condition of employment. It's something you know up front and before you sign your papers to be officially hired on. Sometimes there are ways around it, for example where I work now if you don't want an influenza vaccine you must wear full PPE for the duration of flu season. However, I'm not really sure what you could do for COVID. I guess you could be required to wear a full biohazard suit or something like that. Or I suppose you could refuse the vaccine, but if you get COVID you must take two weeks off without pay and if any of the patients you've cared for get hospital-acquired infection of COVID, then you face disciplinary action and could be subjected to malpractice lawsuits.

Also, I'm positive Texas isn't a right-to-work state. This means that a company can terminate you for pretty much whatever reason they want.

In short, people are the goddamn worst.

My understanding of this issue is that these folks were given an "out", I think by allowing a religious claim to be exempt and they turned it down. Thankfully, I also saw they were a tiny fraction of the overall staff.

You are right about Texas as well, tmk. I just saw the other day, a man asking if his job had the right to require him to get vaccinated or be terminated and ultimately (despite the small amounts of hilariously bad advice like "HIPPA"), he was told the job could fire him for whatever they want as a result of Texas' work policies.

 

[MatskiMonk]

It would be hilarious if it was another countries PM doing it.

Gotta say, that's not a great attitude.

 

[Stotty]

Let’s have a quick look at the data Chris Whitty (SAGE) presented to back up the decision to postpone ‘freedom day’ (that term makes my skin crawl).

The model Whitty presented had 100k cases/day... by the 21st June. That’s 1 week away. We currently have 7k/day, so cases would need to double every 36 hours or so for the next week.

The model then goes on to forecast a range of 150k-350k cases by 3rd week in July.

ONS own data says peak cases in the Uk was c.107k/day in December.

So we’re somehow going to get 2-3x the number of cases... In summer... With 60% of the population vaccinated.

WTAF?

I’m no expert on viruses, but I can see that this data is junk. Complete and utter junk. Just like the 4,000 deaths a day he presented back in the autumn.

We are supposed to be able to trust these people, but how can we if the data they present is so obviously garbage?

I’m massively sceptical of the transmissibility claims... alpha was claimed to be 60% more transmissible than the original Covid. Then Delta comes along and that’s another 60% transmissible.... so Delta is supposed to be >150% more transmissible than the original Covid virus?

Surely they can’t have just worked this assumption in to their model? They can’t be that stupid can they?

edit...

Not only is the case data junk, but the hospitalisation and fatality numbers for delta they have buried in the full data pack in no way support the messaging...

CFR
Alpha 1.1%
Delta 0.1%

Hospital visits (A&E)
Alpha 5.3%
Delta 2.6%

Requiring admission
Alpha 1.8%
Delta 1.2%

 

[Stotty]

Mods; tried to edit previous post, but couldn’t manage a multi quote within an edit.. hence double post.

Maybe I gave the wrong impression.

No, you didn’t. Your previous posts make it abundantly clear you’re a ‘zero COVID’ type.

Equally as bonkers as virus deniers and anti- Vaxers.

Gotta say, that's not a great attitude.

Get a life.

Everyone laughed at Trump for the last 4 years (and America for voting for him).

it’s always funnier when the idiot is running someone else’s country.

 

[Outspacer]

Let’s have a quick look at the data Chris Whitty (SAGE) presented to back up the decision to postpone ‘freedom day’ (that term makes my skin crawl).

OK. Here's the slides that were shown in today's briefing and the briefing itself.

The model Whitty presented had 100k cases/day... by the 21st June. That’s 1 week away. We currently have 7k/day, so cases would need to double every 36 hours or so for the next week.

The model then goes on to forecast a range of 150k-350k cases by 3rd week in July.

ONS own data says peak cases in the Uk was c.107k/day in December.

So we’re somehow going to get 2-3x the number of cases... In summer... With 60% of the population vaccinated.

WTAF?

I can't see where Whitty presented 100k cases/day by 21st June or anything remotely like it - can you point it out?


By my reckoning...

Cases have been doubling about every 10 days, under the current restrictions, with the weather we've been having, and despite the amount of vaccination so far.

IF that continues then: 7.5k cases today, 15k next Thursday, 30k..., 60k..., 120K by 25th July. With no restrictions the increase would happen faster. Clearly it's modelling rather than knowing the future, but that's not a good reason to dismiss it out of hand.

I’m massively sceptical of the transmissibility claims... alpha was claimed to be 60% more transmissible than the original Covid. Then Delta comes along and that’s another 60% transmissible.... so Delta is supposed to be >150% more transmissible than the original Covid virus?

Surely they can’t have just worked this assumption in to their model? They can’t be that stupid can they?

You're sceptical - on what grounds? You just don't want it to be true?

Bad news: it does appear to be true, give or take a bit. They aren't that stupid.

No, you didn’t. Your previous posts make it abundantly clear you’re a ‘zero COVID’ type.

Equally as bonkers as virus deniers and anti- Vaxers.

Define "‘zero COVID’ type". My previous posts are pretty clear that 'some COVID' is not my worry. Significant numbers going to hospital from it is another matter.

Meanwhile, in your previous posts you've been consistently anti-restrictions, pretty much no matter what. You made multiple baseless claims that things were being overblown in the Autumn, up to Nov 13th. Then quiet as a mouse all the way through to April, while the **** storm passed over.

Now we have vaccines and a new variant "in a race" (another obnoxious patronising term but, eh, close enough). Why would you expect us to find your predictions any more insightful than before?

 

[RacingGrandpa]

After having Covid 6 weeks ago I had my first shot yesterday. Pfizer. No side effects apart from a slight burning feel for a few minutes.
Next jab in 7 weeks.

 

[Touring Mars]

@Outspacer I believe the data @Stotty is referring to is not what Whitty presented yesterday, but what was reported by SAGE here (see page 10)

https://assets.publishing.service.g...3510/S1287_SPI-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_step_4.pdf

@Stotty A few things to note here: this is the modelling for all infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic)... the problem here is that the keynote figure that is in the news every day is the number of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the last 24 hours (daily new cases), but a much smaller percentage of asymptomatic infections are ever detected.

As for the "60% vaccinated" number, that is the number of people who have received at least one dose. The actual percentage of people who have had both shots and had sufficient time to build a full immune response (ca. two weeks post 2nd shot) is much lower. Even taking into consideration immunity from prior infection and innate immunity, that is nowhere near enough to stop a huge 3rd wave.

In some ways, we have been extraordinarily unlucky - the Delta variant is more transmissible than the Alpha variant, and vaccines are less likely to be as effective against it - and, just like the alpha variant, it arrived just in time to scupper plans to lift lockdown restrictions. That said, pretty much everyone in the UK doesn't believe that it is mere 'bad luck' this time around. Johnson and the UK Government could have done much more to minimize the chances of a Delta variant outbreak here. I personally happen to agree with Whitty, however, in assuming that the Delta variant would have arrived in the UK eventually anyway, but the difference is in the timing of it relative to our vaccine rollout, and that is where Johnson has screwed up, big time.

-

The numbers as they stand right now are worrying - but, they could be a lot worse. The likelihood is that we are close, but not close enough, to being able to lift restrictions more fully soon, but Johnson's inept handling of the situation has made his (foolhardy) promise of 'Freedom Day' on June 21st impossible.

That said, provided the vaccine rollout is accelerated and uptake remains very high, then there's a good chance that the 3rd wave can be dented sufficiently to prevent it being a(nother) public health disaster, but I reckon we are looking at a couple more months of restrictions and that the new date of July 19th is unlikely to be 'Freedom Day' either.

 

[Blitz24]

Curious, I know that multiple states in the US have over 70% vaccination for their population. Have any subdivisions in the UK (either Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, England or any administrative districts within) reached that same level?

 

[Touring Mars]

Curious, I know that multiple states in the US have over 70% vaccination for their population. Have any subdivisions in the UK (either Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, England or any administrative districts within) reached that same level?

Depends on the metric you are talking about.

Much like the US, the UK has vaccinated by age group and hence the % vaccinated depends on whether you count all ages or just those invited to be given a vaccine, and whether you are counting 'full vaccination' or partial vaccination.

The US currently stands at ca. 44% 'full vaccination' for the whole population, and the UK is pretty much exactly the same (45%).

Those numbers rise if one only considers the 'adult population' (18+) as per the UK Government official statistics to 57% fully vaccinated, and 54% for the US (18+).

US: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
UK: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today
UK Gov: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

[Outspacer]

@Outspacer I believe the data @Stotty is referring to is not what Whitty presented yesterday, but what was reported by SAGE here (see page 10)

https://assets.publishing.service.g...3510/S1287_SPI-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_step_4.pdf

@Stotty A few things to note here: this is the modelling for all infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic)... the problem here is that the keynote figure that is in the news every day is the number of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the last 24 hours (daily new cases), but a much smaller percentage of asymptomatic infections are ever detected.

Thanks. I suspected that the figure would be somewhere, but in truth nothing like as ridiculous as @Stotty would like to think it is.

The SPI-M-O summary was published on the 9th, and for their own estimates they are clear that although data up to the 6th was used some estimates are lagging (particularly the R estimate). It is not so clear what lag exists for the data used to produce the model results shown on page 10, but if based on ONS survey results then it's approx two to three weeks (for anything based on the change from one report to the next).

Based on that limited outdated data, a model suggesting ~100k by 21st June was not ridiculous. It has clearly been shown by more recent data to be incorrect however, which is a good reason for it not being part of Whitty's presentation. That said, we are likely to be seeing ~12k/day confirmed cases by 21st and perhaps the same again in undetected asymptomatic cases, which is not wildly different to the LSHTM model.

Curious, I know that multiple states in the US have over 70% vaccination for their population. Have any subdivisions in the UK (either Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, England or any administrative districts within) reached that same level?

Not as far as I know. The overall figures stand at about 80% of adults have had one dose and 60% two doses. I think Wales might be slightly ahead and Scotland slightly behind, but not enough to make that difference. Since we're going strictly by age we track it like that - today 23 and 24 year olds are starting to be offered their first dose (in England).

 

[Touring Mars]

It seems my own prediction last month of 10k cases/day of the Delta variant by June 21st was pretty close.

The rate of increase hasn't come down since the Delta variant was first identified, but now we are back into the (all too familiar) combination of there being a high enough background of cases coupled with a high enough R rate to present a significant risk to the NHS within weeks unless something is done about it.

Somewhat worryingly, the UK Government's 'response' is to merely postpone the lifting of most of the remaining restrictions, while actually lifting a few anyway. Instead of taking action to reduce the spread of the Delta variant now, they've actually made it even worse, hence my guess that July 19th will also likely be a mirage.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that lifting all remaining restrictions is a step that one should not be taking while less than half of the country has been fully vaccinated and while infections are increasingly rapidly again.