COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

  • Thread starter baldgye
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Liquid
Should I stay at home? I would very much appreciate some counsel.
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I would stay away from people as much as possible - but I also think that it is only a matter of time until you'd be advised to do this anyway, irrespective of your specific circumstances.
 
Dennisch
Terrible. I have Corona.

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And it's a mutated Extra version.
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STONKS!
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I personally am not fan of CNN, nor its Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta. I don't think they've played any sort of leading role in the developing coronavirus story. But now they've stepped apart from WHO and CDC in taking it upon themselves to declare a global pandemic. Gupta has also made statements somewhat relative to strenuous controversy in this thread over whether or not hospital facilities are at risk of being overwhelmed.

While the World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have refrained from calling the new coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, CNN started referring to it as such on Monday. And although that should not "cause panic," it does mean the U.S. needs to shore up its medical resources before things get worse, CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta explained in a Monday article.

So far around the world we've seen 100,000 cases and 3,000 deaths from COVID-19, and in Gupta's opinion, that fits the CDC's definition of pandemic as "an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people." And while the government isn't using that word yet, it is admitting that coronavirus spread is a question of not if, but when.

Looking at how COVID-19 affected China can provide a preview of what it'll look like in the U.S. In China, "around 80 percent of those infected with the coronavirus had symptoms of a bad cold and are expected to recover. Another 14 percent became severely ill, and 5 percent became critically ill," Gupta writes. So according to estimates from the Department of Health and Human Services, that translates to about 200,000 people needing intensive care in the case of a moderate outbreak. That could be a big problem, seeing as the U.S. has less than 100,000 ICU beds.

An estimated 64,000 people will also need ventilators in a moderate outbreak, CNN reports, but the U.S. only has about 62,000 of those machines ready to go. It has another 8,900 in its national stockpile, but "given that this is flu season, many of those are already in use," Gupta writes. Read more about the preparedness problem at CNN. Kathryn Krawczyk
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https://theweek.com/speedreads/9008...ators-deal-even-moderate-coronavirus-outbreak
 
I live in a hot spot in the Netherlands (Den Bosch, Noord Brabant) and what I sense most from the people around me, is awareness, not panic. The supermarkets are still well stocked with everything (except for my favorite beer, Hertog Jan, but that is 2 for 1 at the moment....). We are advised/urged though, to stay at home with even the slightest of symptoms of flu (raised temperature) or the common cold. And that does have an impact: e.g. teachers stay at home, forcing students to do likewise and their parents (in case of the young). And there are the company imposed travel restrictions and hand washing instructions. I must admit to be somewhat concerned, not so much for myself, but more for my elderly parents, who are well in their eighties and have an amazing social life.
 
One reason I am getting more and more concerned about this is because of the lag between the point of infection and cases being confirmed. The WHO special envoy on coronavirus just said in an interview on the BBC that this 'lag' is about 7-14 days.

The growth rate of infections in Italy has stabilised into an almost perfect exponential growth curve with 25% new confirmed cases every day... that corresponds to a doubling every 3 and a bit days. That means for a lag of 7-14 days, we're looking at a true infection number of 4-16 times the currently confirmed case numbers. An average of 10 days gives enough time for 3 doublings, or 8 times the numbers.

Put these two things together and you get a different picture of what is happening in Italy right now... 7300 confirmed cases today means that there is likely more like 25000-100000 actual infections (50000 for the 10-day lag average) . If we are also to assume that, say, only 1 in 3 cases is detected, then the number of actual infections in Italy right now could be more like 75000-300000 (150000 for the 10-day lag average) - and it's doubling every 3 days*.

America's "600 cases" could well be more like 7000-28000 (average 14000) right now... or almost 1.8 million by the end of the month. If no containment measures are put in place, that would make reaching 80% infection of the entire country possible by April 21st.

But 600 cases is not worth worrying about...


* The lockdown of 25% of the country should at least start to slow down this doubling rate.

Even if my logic above is incorrect and there really is only 600 cases in the US right now, then assuming the same growth rate of the virus in Italy (ca. 23% each day, or a 4-fold increase each week) applies to the US, it will take just over 2 months (ca. 66 days, May 14th) to infect 80% of the population without containment.

That said, I very much doubt it will reach anything like 80% though, as people self-isolate and the infection peaks well before that. I sincerely hope it does - even simple measures and precautions can massively reduce the numbers.
 
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Biggles
America's "600 cases" could well be more like 7000-28000 (average 14000) right now... or almost 1.8 million by the end of the month. If no containment measures are put in place, that would make reaching 80% infection of the entire country possible by April 21st.
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...at which point we'd know about and report like 2000 cases... and not be aware of it. :D
 
I have tickets to a concert in Brooklyn on March 28th that I really don't want to see cancelled or have things get to the point where I'm in fear of going. It's a 20th anniversary tour and they're playing songs from their first album that they never play anymore. As in going back and re-learning songs from scratch. To hear them live and with this modern incarnation of the band is something I really look forward to. Hopefully it's not too bad by then
 
My office (in SF) is planning contingencies, including allowing everyone to work remotely. This is the first time this has ever even been discussed, as far as I know. With that cruise ship currently offloading across the bay...doesn't seem like a bad idea.
 
Touring Mars
I would stay away from people as much as possible - but I also think that it is only a matter of time until you'd be advised to do this anyway, irrespective of your specific circumstances.
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What I'm wondering is: how much worse will this get ... & how long until it gets better? Is it better to wait it out - in areas where the outbreak is currently not bad - or do what you have to do before it gets worse? My daughter is supposed to be visiting schools in the Netherlands to decide where to attend in September. If she doesn't go, it's hard for her to figure out where she wants go before the deadlines for a decision. Flying to Europe & traveling in Holland is problematic now, but perhaps not that bad. If she waits a few weeks it may get much worse. By the time it (hopefully) gets better, it will be too late for her to gather the information to make an informed decision.
 
DesertPenguin
I have tickets to a concert in Brooklyn on March 28th that I really don't want to see cancelled or have things get to the point where I'm in fear of going. It's a 20th anniversary tour and they're playing songs from their first album that they never play anymore. As in going back and re-learning songs from scratch. To hear them live and with this modern incarnation of the band is something I really look forward to. Hopefully it's not too bad by then
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Yeah I've got three concerts coming up also. One this month, one next month, and one in June. But they're all here locally at smaller venues of roughly around 2000 max capacity so hopefully they will go ahead as scheduled.

A bigger concern to me is the week before Memorial Day I have vacation scheduled in Miami Beach but I'm driving down there and not flying. And I can cancel my hotel as late as 72 hours before arrival so worse case scenario I won't be out anything. But I'm hoping that by late May this thing will be more controlled.
 
Biggles
What I'm wondering is: how much worse will this get ... & how long until it gets better? Is it better to wait it out - in areas where the outbreak is currently not bad - or do what you have to do before it gets worse?
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It entirely depends on how well countries can contain their various outbreaks, and in turn how countries can adapt to the fact that other countries may not be doing as well as others.

There will be a peak of infections, and things will start to get better beyond that... but it is likely to be some time off yet. My guess is that the global peak could be around May unless there is significant quarantining worldwide, but disruption could last for months beyond that unfortunately.

Biggles
My daughter is supposed to be visiting schools in the Netherlands to decide where to attend in September. If she doesn't go, it's hard for her to figure out where she wants go before the deadlines for a decision. Flying to Europe & traveling in Holland is problematic now, but perhaps not that bad. If she waits a few weeks it may get much worse. By the time it (hopefully) gets better, it will be too late for her to gather the information to make an informed decision.
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I guess you will have to play that by ear. With some luck, containment will work well enough to keep the numbers manageable, but even in that scenario I'd prepare for disruption. If containment doesn't work, then all bets are off... the potential for major disruption would be very high.
 
So I work for a Supermarket here, in terms of panic buying it was all relatively quiet on that front...until today.

We had five full pallets of 18-pack toilet rolls that we all gone by 10am.
We had no pasta in stock when I left.
We had no hand soap/wash in stock when I left.
It was a lot busier than it normally is on a Monday.
We have a massive delivery tomorrow.
 
MUSC4EVER
Where has this toilet paper thing come from?!

Did someone say we need to stock up?!
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I heard at least one person suggest that it was widespread misunderstanding that since coronavirus is "like flu" and since the flu is "the stomach flu" (meaning norovirus, not influenza) that we'd all have diarrhea.

I thought it was just because people were worried about being quarantined long enough to run out.
 
My Dad's mate who he is on holiday in Benidorm with in is hospital tonight, apparently with heart problems. They are due home on Friday, but obviously this has turned things upside down a bit. If his mate is OK, he may get out of hospital after tests and observations tomorrow... but I'm tempted to text him and ask him to consider getting the hell out of there ASAP.

Since my Dad arrived in Spain a week ago today, the number of cases is now 14 times higher. Last night saw an 81% increase in cases.

I'm not sure what will happen if his mate has to stay in hospital - his wife will probably have to fly out to Spain, but my Dad is scheduled to fly home on Friday no matter what.

Luckily, time is probably on his side... but only just - thank 🤬 he is leaving on Friday and not next week - by Monday, Spain could well be in the same situation as Italy.

MUSC4EVER
JESUS!!!
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:( Seconded...
 
As someone with Italian family in law, it’s quite worrying. My parents in law are both doctors and over 60, which puts them very much in the firing line...
 
Dennisch
@Touring Mars

My parents are flying to Torremolinos next month, but seeing your post, and now seeing the actual numbers, I am going to urge my parents to skip this vacation.
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Sadly, I think this will not be a choice very shortly.

I was worried about my Dad's trip days before he left, and even when he arrived there was 'only' 84 cases of coronavirus in the entire country... there is now over 1200. By Wednesday next week, it will probably be nearer 10000 - and that's the point where Italy has been locked down entirely.

I must admit, I'm in two minds talking about this - I'm partly relieved to have such great people to talk to, but I'm also so worried I'm almost in tears already.
 
Biggles
My wife attends (religiously) a local Anglican church. The majority of the parishioners are in their 70's, '80's & '90's - many of them quite frail. This past Sunday the vicar was still conducting communion, distributing wine to scores of communicants from a single chalice. :ill:
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Such a blessed object surely can't be a point of transmission.
 
Consumer goods - currently
Touring Mars
Sadly, I think this will not be a choice very shortly.

I was worried about my Dad's trip days before he left, and even when he arrived there was 'only' 84 cases of coronavirus in the entire country... there is now over 1200. By Wednesday next week, it will probably be nearer 10000 - and that's the point where Italy has been locked down entirely.

I must admit, I'm in two minds talking about this - I'm partly relieved to have such great people to talk to, but I'm also so worried I'm almost in tears already.
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Here's the thing I still don't really understand: there have clearly been major "hotspots" for the virus, notably China & then Northern Italy, & Iran, but the virus is spreading gradually worldwide. Spain had only a handful of cases a couple of weeks ago, same with the US, Canada & many other countries. Is being in Spain any more problematic than being in the UK ... except, of course, for the actually traveling part, which almost certainly puts you in contact with a great many additional people? Are places that don't have many cases of Civid-19 simple behind the curve by a few weeks?
 
Biggles
Are places that don't have many cases of Civid-19 simple behind the curve by a few weeks?
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From what we know about viruses in general, some of them don't spread well in certain conditions. They're affected by local humidity and temperature. Check out this animation of flu progression in the US.


THIS IS FOR FLU, NOT COVID-19, JUST IN CASE YOU'RE SCROLLING QUICKLY AND PANICKING
5a57b6cfa75e201f008b4ff8


Here's another for H1N1 Flu



You can see that it starts in areas of high moisture and population. I'm not sure why it likes the south so much.
 

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