COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Danoff]

Isn't that the main reason for the lock down?

Why yes.

Why April 20th? What if we haven't flattened the curve by then? Just go ahead anyway? What if the experts recommend another week? I hope some can return to work by then but if we're attempting to flatten the curve surely we can't pick an arbitrary date and stick to it without question.

No particular reason, other than that it is not so near term as to discard what we have paid so dearly for, and yet not so long term that we cannot enable businesses to plan a recovery. Would you prefer April 13th or 27th? Either might be defensible.

Yes, I think we should stick to it. We've already paid our price for flattening the curve, now we need to pay another price, a different price, for mitigating economic damage.

 

[RUI]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-man-after-trump-touts-chloroquine-phosphate

 

[Biggles]

I really think what is happening in Italy is the best guide as to what to do/what will happen. And following that the other European countries that are further into the infection/lockdown process. In Italy the lockdown started 15 days ago & the infections/deaths have continued to increase throughout that period. The numbers for today may be very telling as to the efficacy of the lockdown. My concern with the US is that the implementation there is very piecemeal, so the process of suppressing transmission may be very inefficient & drawn out.

 

[ryzno]

Yay! I go back to work Thursday! Not doing water heaters though... That job is halted till further notice. I'm so glad I spent a few on plumbing tools
We'll be installing 80ish parking column things.
I'm just glad I know I have something to do now, I was literally starting to go crazy or drink myself to death from bordem.

 

[Woodybobs]

Why yes.

Then we should stick to achieving that, if it's possible.

No particular reason, other than that it is not so near term as to discard what we have paid so dearly for, and yet not so long term that we cannot enable businesses to plan a recovery. Would you prefer April 13th or 27th? Either might be defensible.

Yes, I think we should stick to it. We've already paid our price for flattening the curve, now we need to pay another price, a different price, for mitigating economic damage.

We don't need a date to stick to. We need to achieve our objectives. If the current plan is wrong then we should return to normal tomorrow. If it's right then we stay the course. We should be flexible enough to change the plan if we think we should, but giving it a month is not the way to do it. If in a few weeks time a decision is made to return to our normal lives, we only need a day or two to mobilise ourselves.

 

[MUSC4EVER]

The lockdown shouldn't affect me too much as I work at the supermarket, it might affect how I get to and from work as I don't drive and am reliant on public transport and lifts from relatives. It will be interesting to see if my place of work will be affected during the lockdown.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Well, we've sent home everyone that can work from home, anybody high risk, anyone who lives with anyone high risk, or anyone who otherwise doesn't think they should be at work. There are two of us left.

... and then I see on the Beeb... 'But he added that "where people absolutely cannot work from home they can go still go to work, indeed it's important that they do to keep the country running".'

 

[Touring Mars]

I really think what is happening in Italy is the best guide as to what to do/what will happen. And following that the other European countries that are further into the infection/lockdown process. In Italy the lockdown started 15 days ago & the infections/deaths have continued to increase throughout that period. The numbers for today may be very telling as to the efficacy of the lockdown. My concern with the US is that the implementation there is very piecemeal, so the process of suppressing transmission may be very inefficient & drawn out.

Yes, but the growth rate of new cases is dropping significantly, which is great news.

New cases increased by less than 10% for the first time since the outbreak began in Italy, and that follows several days of sustained lower rates - the lockdown is working.

(Prelockdown, Italy's new case growth rate was ca. 25%, which means a doubling of cases every 3 days. Now, they are looking at a doubling of cases every 9 days...)

What happens in Hubei will also be very instructive - as China starts to relax lockdown measures (which are far more severe than any seen elsewhere), they are running the risk of starting off a second wave.

That said, China in general is being far tougher than most other countries are prepared to be. No-one gets in to China without quarantine at the moment. The irony is that China could well be the fastest to recover, but only if they continue to be super-stringent about monitoring every single person coming into the country for the foreseeable future.

 

[Joey D]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-man-after-trump-touts-chloroquine-phosphate

That's a bit misleading, the couple took a fish tank cleaner that has the same chemical compound, chloroquine, in it. The big difference is that the formulation of the medication and the fish tank cleaner is vastly different. This is pretty common too, there are things in some medications that would straight up kill you if you took them one way and save your life if you took them another.

Sounds like this is a case of stupid people being stupid.

 

[huskeR32]

Yes, I think we should stick to it. We've already paid our price for flattening the curve, now we need to pay another price, a different price, for mitigating economic damage.

I think you missed the point of his question, which is pretty important: what if the curve hasn't flattened by April 20th? Wouldn't going back to normal at that point then "discard what we've have paid so dearly for," as you put it?

EDIT: Subsequent posts have filled in the blanks for me.

 

[Biggles]

Yes, but the growth rate of new cases is dropping significantly, which is great news.

New cases increased by less than 10% for the first time since the outbreak began in Italy, and that follows several days of sustained lower rates - the lockdown is working.

(Prelockdown, Italy's new case growth rate was ca. 25%, which means a doubling of cases every 3 days. Now, they are looking at a doubling of cases every 9 days...)

What happens in Hubei will also be very instructive - as China starts to relax lockdown measures (which are far more severe than any seen elsewhere), they are running the risk of starting off a second wave.

That said, China in general is being far tougher than most other countries are prepared to be. No-one gets in to China without quarantine at the moment. The irony is that China could well be the fastest to recover, but only if they continue to be super-stringent about monitoring every single person coming into the country for the foreseeable future.

The new figures for Italy have just been released & it looks like the 4th day of decrease in new cases. That's very promising as it would appear the lockdown is starting to show concrete benefits. It suggests that what's required is two weeks MINIMUM of severe lock down before any improvement is apparent. Perhaps a further 3 weeks to get on top of the spread. The US isn't close to having imposed a lockdown as comprehensive as what took place in Italy, which I suspect will mean that it is going to be much further away from achieving diminishing infection rates.

 

[Touring Mars]

I think this comes at extreme cost.

Undoubtedly.

But not locking down properly could come at a catastrophic cost.

I'm not totally believing China's success in containing the virus, but they have basically hermitically sealed the country and have had a crippling, total lockdown for several weeks... and now they have no new cases of the virus. They've had to endure 3 months of severe disruption, and quarantining/screening/testing every single person coming into the country for the foreseeable future is a Herculean (and some may say impossible) task, but it is at the very least possible that they may have eradicated the virus from the general populace.

Unfortunately, other countries such as ours are unlikely to follow this model - and thus we either go for the prolonged shutdown idea ('flattening the curve') or we don't... the latter option could be called biting the bullet, or allowing the virus to do maximum damage now with the view of 'getting it over and done with'. This option is absolutely horrible, and will result in the maximum possible death toll (and not just people with the virus either)... I can't see any government going down this route intentionally, not least because the problem it would be intended to address (how not to kill the economy) would probably not be achieved, as the economy would grind to a halt for a different reason i.e. millions of dead, millions seriously and permanently injured, and the rest bereaved and broke.

The new figures for Italy have just been released & it looks like the 4th day of decrease in new cases. That's very promising as it would appear the lockdown is starting to show concrete benefits. It suggests that what's required is two weeks MINIMUM of severe lock down before any improvement is apparent. Perhaps a further 3 weeks to get on top of the spread. The US isn't close to having imposed a lockdown as comprehensive as what took place in Italy, which I suspect will mean that it is going to be much further away from achieving diminishing infection rates.

Yeh... it will take a minimum of two weeks for any noticable effect, presuming people actually do what is being asked of them. Beyond that it will take weeks more to reduce the transmission rate back to a trickle... but then what? The danger is that we merely postpone the peak. A total shutdown for a few months coupled with an indefinite period of international travel restrictions (or mandatory quarantining of all international arrivals for 14-21 days) is the only way to eradicate the virus from a country barring a vaccine or effective drug treatment(s). The other option is the herd immunity strategy and to maintain a high level of social distancing measures that keeps transmission rates as low as possible but keeps a steady trickle of people becoming infected. Unfortunately, one of these options has to happen... it's a question of which one.

 

[zzz_pt]

Italy reports that for the second day in a row the number of deaths have gone down. 👍

793 on Saturday, 651 on Sunday and 601 today.
New cases have gone down too.
6647>5560>4789.

That's something to be mildly positive about.

It went up again to 5249 / 743.

Not sure how many of those are from the most precarious area with the toughest lockdown or from southern regions where people were still going out as normal until recently (despite being told otherwise).

 

[sirjim73]

Sorry for the broken English.
As a French person, all I can say is stay at home. My big brother is hospitalised because of this virus, my little brother has now headaches, fever and can't leave his bed. My parents cough and fever too.
Nothing special a week ago, now everything has changed. If you think going out for running is more important than your health, it's up to you. This week will be probably very complicated for me, symptoms will be stronger. The virus is already there, in your neighbourhood. Don't wait official statements like here in France, they're symply too late and too little given the awful virus. Washing your hands or "social distancing" won't help you. We know lockdown will be stricter as long as the virus keeps spreading, don' wait. And no need to rush in supermarkets like so many stupid people in France, the risk is too high. Just wait a couple of days and you will be able to buy foods in almost empty shops.
I can't control the situation anymore but you can still control yours.

Noone else has said this yet, so I will.

I'm sure we all wish you and your family well and hope you all make a full recovery as soon as possible.

 

[baldgye]

Yeh... it will take a minimum of two weeks for any noticable effect, presuming people actually do what is being asked of them. Beyond that it will take weeks more to reduce the transmission rate back to a trickle... but then what? The danger is that we merely postpone the peak. A total shutdown for a few months coupled with an indefinite period of international travel restrictions (or mandatory quarantining of all international arrivals for 14-21 days) is the only way to eradicate the virus from a country barring a vaccine or effective drug treatment(s). The other option is the herd immunity strategy and to maintain a high level of social distancing measures that keeps transmission rates as low as possible but keeps a steady trickle of people becoming infected. Unfortunately, one of these options has to happen... it's a question of which one.

Can't we 'un-lockdown' the country by region? so that there are lots of small peaks rather than giant one?

 

[Touring Mars]

Can't we 'un-lockdown' the country by region? so that there are lots of small peaks rather than giant one?

Yeh, that is one option - to ban intercity travel etc... but again, China may be able to do that, but I can't see it happening in the UK.

 

[RUI]

That's a bit misleading, the couple took a fish tank cleaner that has the same chemical compound, chloroquine, in it. The big difference is that the formulation of the medication and the fish tank cleaner is vastly different. This is pretty common too, there are things in some medications that would straight up kill you if you took them one way and save your life if you took them another.

Sounds like this is a case of stupid people being stupid.

True, but it still shows the risk of saying stuff like that.

 

[queleuleu]

@sirjim73 Thank you. Take care of yourself.

I do appreciate your reply, but I think maintaining physical activity is probably just as important as staying away from people. I can't imagine staying sedentary for two months is good for your immune system, respiratory system, and mental health.



I'm very much in favor of this. However, I'm getting confused about what exactly people think is elderly. I went to the grocery store Sunday morning right when they opened a 7 am so I could avoid large crowds and actually find things to buy. They wouldn't let me in because I was under 50 and they were having "senior hours" until 11 am. Nevermind how completely asinine it is to have senior hours on a Sunday and not in the middle of the week, but really 50 years old? I could see limiting hours to ages 70 and up, but 50? That's not even close to being elderly.



And here I am driving to them and having them load cases into my trunk like a peasant.



Every time Trump gives an update or makes a speech, I'm like, "ya he's getting it now and it starting to make sense." Then he says something stupid or focuses his energy on the wrong thing and I'm back to losing even more faith in the government. I totally agree though, we should pick a date and stick to it. Trump is right too, the US is not made to handle a long term shut down.

As for 4/20 for a return to work date? Well, the weed shops will certainly be happy about that.

Sure, I agree with you on that point. Everything is a matter of common sense and many here in France don't know that concept. Instead of running around their neighbourhood, they go very far, take so many risks. For example, I think it's better to run at evening, around 10:00 pm when streets are empty.
Edit : pictures posted aren't from today.

 

[baldgye]

Yeh, that is one option - to ban intercity travel etc... but again, China may be able to do that, but I can't see it happening in the UK.

I mean, if we can lockdown a country I don't see why we can't un-lockdown some areas?

I meant more, ok so Manchester City Centre is now ok to go back to business, but you can't travel to or from it unless you are part of an essential service... then Brighton... etc areas far apart and then work round the country to mitigate the spike

 

[Famine]

True, but it still shows the risk of saying stuff like that.

It shows the risk of saying anything.

The guy drank/ate a chemical for a fish pond because it had a similar letter sequence to a drug that someone said worked. And the drug has actually had some positive effects, in its pure form and at therapeutic doses as prescribed by a doctor, not when gulped out of a jar of fish tank cleaner by an absolute ****wit.

We're talking about a level of stupidity that's impossible to even imagine yourself down to, like if someone important said iron suppositories helped, this guy would have died trying to shove a Tefal Ultraglide up his arse while it was plugged in and still turned on.

 

[VBR]

Viral aerosol and surface survival for COVID-19


Three hours in the air after someone has been breathing/coughing etc, & up to 72 hours on surfaces depending on the material. The video is a must watch IMO. Stay safe!




I searched the video title & didn't see it in this thread...

 

[DG_Silva]

It shows the risk of saying anything.

The guy drank/ate a chemical for a fish pond because it had a similar letter sequence to a drug that someone said worked. And the drug has actually had some positive effects, in its pure form and at therapeutic doses as prescribed by a doctor, not when gulped out of a jar of fish tank cleaner by an absolute ****wit.

We're talking about a level of stupidity that's impossible to even imagine yourself down to, like if someone important said iron suppositories helped, this guy would have died trying to shove a Tefal Ultraglide up his arse while it was plugged in and still turned on.

Something tells me we're going to see a lot more nominations for the Darwin Awards this year...

 

[Dennisch]

Something tells me we're going to see a lot more nominations for the Darwin Awards this year...

Install tiktok to stay up to date with the bored youth.

Latest challenge is huffing gas and lighting it.

 

[Danoff]

Then we should stick to achieving that, if it's possible.

We don't need a date to stick to. We need to achieve our objectives.

One of those objectives being to survive economically. A date to stick to enables us to do that.

If the current plan is wrong then we should return to normal tomorrow.

Nope. Not sure how you arrive there.

If it's right then we stay the course.

..and what course is that? We have no plan. Just... wait and see. It's causing an economic disaster that can be far greater than the virus.

Undoubtedly.

But not locking down properly could come at a catastrophic cost.

I'm not totally believing China's success in containing the virus, but they have basically hermitically sealed the country and have had a crippling, total lockdown for several weeks... and now they have no new cases of the virus. They've had to endure 3 months of severe disruption, and quarantining/screening/testing every single person coming into the country for the foreseeable future is a Herculean (and some may say impossible) task, but it is at the very least possible that they may have eradicated the virus from the general populace.

Unfortunately, other countries such as ours are unlikely to follow this model - and thus we either go for the prolonged shutdown idea ('flattening the curve') or we don't... the latter option could be called biting the bullet, or allowing the virus to do maximum damage now with the view of 'getting it over and done with'. This option is absolutely horrible, and will result in the maximum possible death toll (and not just people with the virus either)... I can't see any government going down this route intentionally, not least because the problem it would be intended to address (how not to kill the economy) would probably not be achieved, as the economy would grind to a halt for a different reason i.e. millions of dead, millions seriously and permanently injured, and the rest bereaved and broke.

I don't believe those are the only two options. And the US has definitely not "bit the bullet" (unless it's the economic rather than human bullet). I think we need a clear date, regardless of whether it is perfect, in order to enable some planning and reduced panic. Lack of planning, or extreme measures to hunker unsustainable time periods, has led to panic and economic misallocation. We need to stop that, and we can do it now with a clear road map.

Again, it might not end up being the perfect time to scale back lockdowns, and that time might need to be adjusted locally according to when they went into lockdown and when the virus showed up, but businesses need a roadmap, even an imperfect one.

The danger is that we merely postpone the peak. A total shutdown for a few months coupled with an indefinite period of international travel restrictions (or mandatory quarantining of all international arrivals for 14-21 days) is the only way to eradicate the virus from a country barring a vaccine or effective drug treatment(s). The other option is the herd immunity strategy and to maintain a high level of social distancing measures that keeps transmission rates as low as possible but keeps a steady trickle of people becoming infected. Unfortunately, one of these options has to happen... it's a question of which one.

We're smearing the peak out right now. And I think we can continue to do that by easing off restrictions starting on a pre-set timeline, especially for low risk groups.

 

[Woodybobs]

A date to stick to enables us to do that.

Why is sticking to it so important? If we get to that date and it's deemed that the best course of action is to extend that date, why would we stick to it? We can aim to get back to normal by a certain date without being bound to it.

Nope. Not sure how you arrive there.

If the plan is wrong, change the plan. It's hardly a novel concept. For all we know this arbitrary date will be no better a time to return to normal than tomorrow.

..and what course is that?

Flattening the curve.

 

[kilesa4568]

I'm in the most vulnerable group (UK) and got my letter today (my parents too) about 12 weeks isolation from outside and to semi isolate from the other 3 people in the house. Not sure how we do the last bit... Do I need to put traffic lights in the doorways?

That will be 15 weeks I'll be stuck in the house. Cabin fever is kicking in already so I'll be Napoleon by the time I'm allowed back out...

 

[Danoff]

Why is sticking to it so important. If we get to that date and it's deemed that the best course of action is to extend that date, why would we stick to it? We can aim to get back to normal by a certain date without being bound to it.

Clearly it would be an option to adjust it at that time. But doing so would once again result in economic strife, and a loss of misallocated resources. Yes, it's not off the table to miss the target date, but it would be paid for heavily. Probably still not as heavily as we're paying for just not having an end in sight. People are hearing August (the president said that). Some people are saying 12 months, others are saying 18 months. Restaurant owners (and other business owners) are not just going to bleed money for a year. They'll close up. They'll find out that they could have stayed open if they'd just held on a little longer, but entirely too late.

We can't keep people in the dark forever.

If the plan is wrong, change the plan. It's hardly a novel concept. For all we know this arbitrary date will be no better a time to return to normal than tomorrow.

I think we know that's not true. We've paid a heavy price to get here, we should at least get some of the benefit. You're making no sense.

Flattening the curve.

And when do we ease back on restrictions?

 

[Blitz24]

It shows the risk of saying anything.

The guy drank/ate a chemical for a fish pond because it had a similar letter sequence to a drug that someone said worked. And the drug has actually had some positive effects, in its pure form and at therapeutic doses as prescribed by a doctor, not when gulped out of a jar of fish tank cleaner by an absolute ****wit.

We're talking about a level of stupidity that's impossible to even imagine yourself down to, like if someone important said iron suppositories helped, this guy would have died trying to shove a Tefal Ultraglide up his arse while it was plugged in and still turned on.

To be fair, this was Florida man......

 

[super_gt]

what do you think ? Has this virus mutated or is it a biological weapon ?

I saw this Coronavirus patent today, is it the same virus?

 

[Barra333]

That patent was first filed in 2014 by people at a virology institute in England and just mentions a coronavirus. The common cold is a coronavirus too.