Europe - The Official Thread
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Keef
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Uh, I don't think we should laugh because that actually sounds really plausible. Never thought about it. World War 3 anybody? Europe and Asia all over again? This is Germany's chance to finally secure the Eastern front!One day East and West will invade Russia to fight over the last scraps of gas, coal and oil.
And then they will all freeze to death and Russia expands its borders again.
Merkel in the back room:
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Tsipras has formed a coalition with the right-wing party ANEL, whose name gives us a clue as to where they think the 'troika' can shove their bailout conditions.
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- mustafur
I would say this is not new, in Australia we have Chinese investers who are very much linked to the Government buying Up Australian Farms here for national purposes.
Our Government has severely restricted it now, but the damage is done.
Not Sure if you think this is similar but I wouldn't put this past the Russians.
Dotini
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Probably what's going to happen is that the Greek debt will be renegotiated, avoiding outright default. But then Italy, Spain and the others will want the same treatment. Of course, taxpaying Europeans will have to take up the slack.
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- Dennisch
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'Negotiate' is an interesting choice of word that is being debated a fair bit in relation to this topic... some people are pointing out, perhaps correctly, that Greece are not really in a position to be negotiating anything. The question is more like whether or not Greece decides to venture further up the creek with or without a paddle. Syriza appear to be banking on (if you pardon the pun) the idea that the 'troika' (basically the EU) will write down their debt i.e. write off at least half of their debt, among other things. I'm not sure what they intend to offer in return, or what they are planning to put up as their side of the bargain - free tickets to Demis Roussos concerts maybe?
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Dotini
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Oddly enough, extreme right-wing parties across Europe are hailing the success of the radical left victory in Greece. Even in Greece, a majority government was achieved by an alliance between extreme right and extreme left.
This ought to be a major clue to the center that they're not doing something right.
Guess what the deal is? The EU will get to barely survive with its life only by concessions such as rolling back the "austerity" policy which has reduced GDP of debtor states instead of increasing it.
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- Jersey V.1.0
- axletramp
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Not dragging the whole Eurozone down with them, i imagine.
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If they stay in the Eurozone. Chances are if they want to play it tough they may be forced to leave. Debts will still be due though.
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Greece aren't a million miles away from not having anything more to give. They're not far from having nothing to loose. They have massive unemployment and little scope for improving their economy under the current levels of austerity pressed on them. You can only squeeze so much out of a sponge before having to give it time to recover.
Either could do the trick depending on how it's handled.
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Expect some fun and games in Greece over the weekend as Syriza have effectively caved in and done exactly the opposite to what they said they were going to do.... their supporters will not be happy. I don't see them lasting long anyway - what they have promised the Greek people and what they are saying they will do just isn't possible in their situation. They are entirely dependent on outside help, but they have been attempting to say that they will only accept that help if the lenders back off and stop telling them what to do in return for help. That was never going to work, and it would appear that Syriza are capitulating in the face of the hard reality that they cannot do what they said they would.
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What happens if a country decides not to pay back its creditors. It's not like they can get a court order and the bailiffs turn up and take their car. I presume they would be thrown out of the Eurozone and blacklisted in some way.
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They would find it pretty hard to borrow any money from anyone if they default.
Apparently Germany has already rejected Greece's latest request for a bailout extension. Given that the Eurozone have imposed a deadline of tomorrow to reach an agreement (and the existing bailout package expires next Friday), it could well be game over for Greece very shortly.
Greece are screwed. If they extend the bailout, the Greek people will riot and accuse Syriza of reneging on their promises. If Syriza stick to their guns, and the bailout is not extended, the Eurozone will be left with little choice but to deny further financial aid and Greece will default and its economy and banks will collapse.
Apparently Germany has already rejected Greece's latest request for a bailout extension. Given that the Eurozone have imposed a deadline of tomorrow to reach an agreement (and the existing bailout package expires next Friday), it could well be game over for Greece very shortly.
Greece are screwed. If they extend the bailout, the Greek people will riot and accuse Syriza of reneging on their promises. If Syriza stick to their guns, and the bailout is not extended, the Eurozone will be left with little choice but to deny further financial aid and Greece will default and its economy and banks will collapse.
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I'm not defending Greek fiscal policy but whose bright idea was it to let them join the EEC back in 1981 in the first place? The EEC knew they were like this and had a track record for it.
Give an addict some heroin and don't be surprised that he uses it. Give a heavily spending country a credit line and don't be surprised that they max it.
Give an addict some heroin and don't be surprised that he uses it. Give a heavily spending country a credit line and don't be surprised that they max it.
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I can't see that letting them default is any kind of option. They owe so much of their debt to French and German banks, it will just have such an impact on those economies too.
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One could argue that Greece is already defaulting by requiring the Eurozone to lend them cash to pay the interest on the debts they already have etc.. The only realistic way Greece can get out of this situation without defaulting is to impose the kind of radical reforms that the Eurozone are demanding of it in exchange for further financial aid - the Greek people have made it pretty clear what they think of that idea. So the Eurozone have a choice - either they capitulate to the demands of Syriza, keep the debt taps turned on forever and allow Greece to do whatever it likes (and thus presumably expose Eurozone banks to a bottomless pit of Greek debt, while simultaneously embolding socialist parties across the continent) or they can say enough is enough, limit the exposure of Eurozone banks to Greek debt, take the hit and leave Greece to its own devices.
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The Greek government have responded to Germany's rejection of their latest proposal by saying that this is essentially their final offer and that the Eurozone either must accept it as it is, or reject it. Good luck with that. 👍
It seems Syriza are intent on making a drachma out of a crisis after all.
It seems Syriza are intent on making a drachma out of a crisis after all.
