February 2024 Update Prediction

[jonoholland29]

Exactly what reason would PD have to care about a PC title when they don't even acknowledge Turn 10 or anyone else for that matter? I get that people aren't happy about the last update but this just feels abit forced just for the sake of justifying a update prediction thread of all things.

Do not understand this idea about PD "Responding" to what others do when they hardly have for the past 26 years.

It’s not my opinion, but I just threw it out there like a social grenade.

 

[cristiangiomm]

New VGT Cars

1. Louis Vuitton VGT
2. Lotus Evil VGT
3. Koenigsegg VGT
4. Lockheed Martin VGT
5. Maserati VGT
6. Nike Two VGT
7. Jordan MJ VGT
8. Chevrolet CorVeeGeeTee VGT
9. Citroën VGT
10. Ford GT2040 VGT
11. Pagani VGT
12. Demio VGT
13. Lacoste VGT
14. Boeing VGT

Absent two VGT Cars

1. Fittipaldi EF7 VGT
2. Mercedes-Benz AMG VGT LH Edition

 

[TumeK5]

Holy crap, a 14 car update? Can't wait!

 

[bigmull]

Same old stuff that I will buy and never use,no real endurance races. I would be happy if they reassessed the AI cars in the wet as they overdid it in the last update having cars with NO wet tyres driving off into the distance when the track is awash with water,but I am not holding out much hope that they will.

 

[Famine]

If we're all quite done with being stupid, some actual predictions (guesses, based on evidence) would be nice.

 

[TumeK5]

some actual predictions (guesses, based on evidence) would be nice.

Evidence? What evidence?

 

[Famine]

Evidence? What evidence?

Aside from the datamined car list (which you posted a thread about), we have what's come before. Past behaviour predicts future actions:

From January:

Predictions don't need to be right to be predictions, they only need to be based on evidence.

We have evidence of what PD has done in the past, what cars are in the game files, where it's been and what it's scanned. This can all be used to predict future updates.

A wishlist is based on no evidence and is just hopecasting.

As the universe loves irony, there is some evidence that PD uses the GTPlanet Suggestions forums (and given the history of that it should be no surprise) to guide its choices, so any "wishes" should go in there for member voting.

Also from January:

If anyone's interested:

Mean car count per update: 3.8
Median/mode car count per update: 3

Mean car type per update:
Road: 2.6
Race: 0.9
Tuned: 0.2

Mean car origin per update:
Asia: 1.6
Europe: 1.5
Americas: 0.6

Mean car age per update:
New: 2.2
Legends: 0.9
Used: 0.6

Mean car GT history per update:
All-new: 2.8
Returning: 1.0


That suggests an expected update of 3-4 cars, one of which is a returning vehicle, one of which is a Legends car, one of which is a race car, half of which each are from Europe and Asia, and the majority of which are all-new road cars slotting into Brand Central.

Note there that "returning" also includes cars which are new in that specification but broadly the same platform as and replacing a car from a previous game that isn't in the current one - like the '68 Charger.

From June:

Yet we can use evidence to guide us.

For example, the average (mean) content update contains 3.6 cars - but that's skewed by a couple of five-car updates (one of which could be classed as a four - 1.29); eight of the 13 updates have been three-car updates, so three is more likely.

Cars are overwhelmingly more likely to be European and Japanese - at 47% and 42% respectively. In fact only five updates have even contained American cars, and we've only ever had two in a row once. As the last update had an American car, this makes it more likely to be a two European/one Japanese update.

Updates are twice as likely to contain road cars as race and professional tuned cars (both of which were SEMA cars) combined. That makes it more likely be two race cars/one road car.

Cars in Brand Central are slighly more likely than cars not in Brand Central (55:45), and notably we've never had a mix of Used/Legends; it's always been either/or. Legends are more likely, coming in seven updates to Used's five, but both times we've not had a Legends car we've subsequently had another update without Legends cars and we didn't have a Legends car last time out (although the two cars in the update were listed as Legends in the patch notes but appeared as Used). This means two BC and one used is most probable, but it's a toss-up.

All-new cars swamp returning cars by 3:1 (with a couple of debatables in there; one of the S14 Ks is technically all-new but it's a struggle to claim that with an entirely straight face. One might also say something similar about the recent Giulia), but entirely new lineups are rare. Interestingly, returning cars have never outnumbered all-new ones; we can thus imagine it will be two all-new and one returnee.


That means we can anticipate a three-car update that consists of two European, two road, two Brand Central, two all-new, one Asian, one race, one Used, and one returning car - but of course that doesn't necessarily means two all-new, 2001+, European road cars and one returning, pre-01, Asian race car; they could be any mix.

The "leaked" list is not a terrible guide for cars which have been worked on for inclusion in GT7 (though you have to keep in mind that - particularly the ones from previous GT games - they are not a confirmation of anything).

Someone pulling three cars from there that match up the above criteria is doing a decent job of predicting. For example if one were to predict:

Lexus LFA (Asia, BC, returning, road car)
Bugatti Type 35 (Europe, Legends, all-new, race car)
Audi R8 V10 Plus '16 (Europe, BC, all-new, road car)

They're using evidence well to make those predictions.


However we should also be aware of a handful of cars likely to come to the game at some point: the Phil Robles Civic, the Pebble Beach Ferrari 512 and Autobianchi Bertone (probably too soon for either), and the Dai Yoshihara Tesla Model 3 PP.

I actually didn't recall that two (and a half) of the cars in those six that I plucked at random did subsequently come inside the next three updates

The stats haven't changed much since January, obviously:

Mean car count per update: 3.7
Median/mode car count per update: 3

Mean car type per update:
Road: 2.7
Race: 0.8
Tuned: 0.2

Mean car origin per update:
Asia: 1.7
Europe: 1.5
Americas: 0.6

Mean car age per update:
New: 2.2
Legends: 0.9
Used: 0.6

Mean car GT history per update:
All-new: 2.8
Returning: 0.9


Additionally we have a bunch of cars we know are coming at some point still - the Pebble Beach Ferrari 512, Autobianchi Bertone, and Alfa Romeo 6C (probably too soon still), the PB AAR Eagle (I think more than five years' wait is enough...), and the Afeela could come at virtually any time.

 

[tankuroded]

Any time I hear a sardonic VGT post here, the Mazda3 Gr.4 gets buffed even more in the next BoP update, period.

 

[TumeK5]

Any time I hear a sardonic VGT post here, the Mazda3 Gr.4 gets buffed even more in the next BoP update, period.

In that case, Famine should be happy seeing VGT predictions.

 

[MrHorsepower]

My vague predictions are going to look a lot like last month's, just minus the Genesis VGT, because a lot of the logic still holds:

• I still think a second R34 GT-R variant is likely, so we have an alternate version of it to go with the R32 Nismo, 400R (R33), and R35 Nismo.

I believe that we'll get the R34 Z Tune at some point. Adding Nismo as an independent manufacturer fueled my hopes.
Apart from the R34 Nismo variant, I believe we'll get two other cars:

• Audi R8 V10 2016
• BMW 2002 Turbo

Of course we'll also get a handful or extra menus, races and scapes.

 

[rmac923]

2000 #16 Castrol Honda NSX GT500 (Gr.3)
2019 Ferrari 812 Superfast
2002 Renault Avantine
1998 #32 Nissan R390 GT1 (Gr.2)
BVULGARI VGT for us poors

Plus more WTC 900 races, scapes and stuff

 

[PlanetJanet]

Cars:

Tesla VGT
Louis Vuitton VGT (exclusive for buyers of the GT7 duffle bag)
Citroen Berlingo Van 2019

Track:
Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya Rallycross Layout - Reverse

I know this is a joke post but I would love a Berlingo lol

 

[Yard_Sale]

Ferrari F430 07’
Buick GNX
Castrol GT500 00’ - hopefully GR.3

• Further Sophy implementation
• Endurance League - law of averages suggests I’ll hit on this one sooner or later
• GR.3 and GR.4 BOP update
• Obligatory Scapes - I honestly love them
• New Music Rally stage - wishful thinking is on an actual rally stage, Sardegna windmills

No new track

 

[GTvsForza]

Well, obviously the Bvlgari is in the next update for all to get. What else I think may be added:

Cars

• Ferrari 296 GT3
• Ford RS200 Evolution
• Light Car Company Rocket

Tracks (Not expecting any new tracks, but I'm being hopeful)

• Autumn Ring

World Circuits

• Rocket Trophy
• New tracks for WTC600 and WTC800/Gr. 3 Cup

 

[Arkseven]

Ferrari F430 07’
Buick GNX
Castrol GT500 00’ - hopefully GR.3

• Further Sophy implementation
• Endurance League - law of averages suggests I’ll hit on this one sooner or later
• GR.3 and GR.4 BOP update
• Obligatory Scapes - I honestly love them
• New Music Rally stage - wishful thinking is on an actual rally stage, Sardegna windmills

No new track

Is there a big difference between the F430 06' and the 07'?

 

[Yard_Sale]

Is there a big difference between the F430 06' and the 07'?

07’ was a special edition, the Scuderia. Little lighter, little more powerful, little faster.

 

[Sir Crashalot]

View attachment 1324924


If we're all quite done with being stupid, some actual predictions (guesses, based on evidence) would be nice.

A Yves Rocher VGT?

 

[RobertHammer]

I know people want the latest GT3s , especially 296 GT3 but that's way too early for Gran Turismo

at best we will get the 488 of any kind before that

 

[MineralBlurb7]

Great thread.

 

[DapperDan07]

I know people want the latest GT3s , especially 296 GT3 but that's way too early for Gran Turismo

at best we will get the 488 of any kind before that

I’d be happy enough with the 488, it’s criminal it’s not in the game already. The 458 is over 10 years old. Same goes for the vantage

 

[MroczMR]

I know people want the latest GT3s , especially 296 GT3 but that's way too early for Gran Turismo

at best we will get the 488 of any kind before that

Is it? 296 GT3 is 2022 car same as... Porsche 911 GT3 RS 992 gen.

I know this is probably too much to ask especially we didn't get 488 yet, but it isn't to early for Gran Turismo. It actually have similar chances to be there as 488

 

[Tired Tyres]

You'll get your Bvlgari and be happy about it.

 

[MroczMR]

You'll get your Bvlgari and be happy about it.

Yeah it looks cool, can't wait

 

[smoothbore12]

My prediction is .......... that we won't have any update at February .
Next update will be at March to " celebrate" the 2 years from release of the game .
February will be a " dry " month .

Perhaps late February we will get the Bulgari VGT but i still doubt and about that.

 

[RobertHammer]

Is it? 296 GT3 is 2022 car same as... Porsche 911 GT3 RS 992 gen.

I know this is probably too much to ask especially we didn't get 488 yet, but it isn't to early for Gran Turismo. It actually have similar chances to be there as 488

Imho 296 GT3 started racing in 2023 and i doubt PD had the access to the needed files ahead of the time (not to mention getting the car from the racing teams is a pita), which other cars like that Porsche must gave them the files ahead and the car too

on the other hand 488 GT3/GTE been racing since 2016 , i am pretty sure they had plenty of examples since then

not saying it will come next month but it should come out eventually like the Nissan GTR GT3 '18 or the AMG Evo '20 did

 

[jonoholland29]

The Bvlgari is already in the game - it will not be in the Feb update

 

[SupaflyIRL]

The Bvlgari is already in the game - it will not be in the Feb update

its not showing up in brand central for me, weird

 

[nickf1gr]

Next update will be at March to " celebrate" the 2 years from release of the game .

I am afraid for this!!!!! and for the "celebrations"!!!!!
🤡

 

[Famine]

its not showing up in brand central for me, weird

That's because it's not in Brand Central.

It is, however, in the game. You can in fact race against it in the Vision Gran Turismo event. Like this:

 

[Keef]

Ferrari F430 07’

I can't tell if you want this or if you're just joking about how PD includes dumb cars in the game.