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Yes, the example I use is the jet engine which was considered novelty compared to piston engines in aviation. However, these things don't necessary prove that the future is hard to predict, but that humans are bad at making predictions. Or maybe they're just short sighted. The original jets were novelties, but the later generations would not be.There once was a market trend that said that a horseless carriage would never catch on. They built one anyway.
The Facebook bot example was simply in regards to data collection. Trendsetting requires personalty or insight into group preferences and behavior, which is why I mentioned the personification of an AI entity. It would be an attempt to mimic as closely as possible the behavior of trend setting people.Market trends and what people say about an idea before trying it are untrustworthy indicators of what can be teh next big thing. That is why they focus group products first.
One example is clothing trends. No trendsetting fashion designer (that would be one that creates the first of a new trendy fashion) looks for a trend on Facebook of people saying, "I wish they made shoes that look like X. They'd look so cute on me." Nope, multiple fashion shows happen every year. A handful create the style everyone will wear next year, and those people won't know they want it until they see it.
It all comes down to thinking the human brain is a biological machine or not. If it's not, and it just works, you can't model it or model something after it. If it is a machine, you can probably emulate it on different hardware. I couldn't tell you the timelines for such things, but I don't see why it's not possible.Same with food. Taco Bell breakfast sounded insane. To this day I know people that don't know White Castle makes breakfast and have a weird reaction when they find out. But both do well enough to make a profit. What machine would create Hot Dog pizza crust? I personally wonder what sane person would, but it happened.
Human element to me is just biochemistry that we don't yet understand.Hundreds of new ideas come out of each industry every year. They get focus group tested and maybe three to five make it to market, and then maybe only one will actually be a success. Too much human element is involved on determining success to automate the process.
Maybe the better term then is non-human-directed.That isn't to say that an emotion-chipped, bio-interfaced AI could do it. But can that be called automated anymore than having humans do it?