Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Dotini]

How can I break apart your quote to reply in discrete parts?

 

[livemusic]

Just separate each part with the quote tags.

 

[Dotini]

Because helium isotopes decay by beta emission/capture into Helium 4. There's only two stable helium isotopes - helium 4 (99.99986%) and helium 3 (0.0001%).

Why does the ratio change over time?



There's nothing "putative" about the Sun's fusion reactions. Its magnetic field is caused by the motion of plasma within its body - not the corona. The corona increases temperature with altitude as the helium plasma is ionised, reducing the cooling effect of plasma.
[/QUOTE]

Of course the Sun's fusion is putative until it's proven. Until then it's only a model. It's not observable, only inferred from neutrino flux which is suspiciously inadequate. The standard model of the Sun calls for slow moving convection columns moving heat to the surface. No way this can explain how neutrino flux changes rapidly with sunspots, or the glowing (plasma) corona, which are visibly electrical phenomena. No way a fusion reaction can explain observed field reversals, which is also an electrical phenomenon. Soon, the paradigm of the Sun will change! Be the first on your block to understand it.

I don't understand the question. You cannot separate electricity and magnetism - hence the term "electromagnetism". I don't see how this pertains to the Sun, geology or power sources.



Please do not misrepresent people in this manner. Mars has clearly stated several times that the Sun does influence the Earth's temperature (it's our primary source of energy - of course it does), but he does not ascribe to the theory that it is the sole influence on the Earth's temperature.

You know this as well as I do and to state otherwise is unfair and unacceptable.
[/QUOTE]

Of course. My apologies.



Who said it isn't?
[/QUOTE]
You said Earth's core was not rotating. How do you get a dynamo without rotation?


I didn't say everything about lightning is known. I asked what is not known.
[/QUOTE]

Lot's to work with here!
Three samples:
1) Where does lightning originate? In the troposphere, stratosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, or higher?
2) Sprites, jets, elves. Exactly how do these work and relate to lightning?
3) Explain ball lightning?




I am unfamiliar with this phenomenon, particular as plate tectonics play no role in atmospheric conditions or the Earth's magnetosphere (which causes aurorae).[/QUOTE]

Rub two crystals rapidly together in the dark. You will produce flashes of light. Movement and pressure in the crust, much of which is crystalline, is thought to produce piezoelectric effects which generate electrical phenomena.

 

[Famine]

Why does the ratio change over time?

Because Helium isotopes decay by beta emission/capture. Like what what I just done gone said.

Of course the Sun's fusion is putative until it's proven. Until then it's only a model. It's not observable, only inferred from neutrino flux which is suspiciously inadequate. The standard model of the Sun calls for slow moving convection columns moving heat to the surface. No way this can explain how neutrino flux changes rapidly with sunspots, or the glowing (plasma) corona, which are visibly electrical phenomena. No way a fusion reaction can explain observed field reversals, which is also an electrical phenomenon. Soon, the paradigm of the Sun will change! Be the first on your block to understand it.

*Bluff*

You said Earth's core was not rotating. How do you get a dynamo without rotation?

No, I said that "rotating" as a term misunderstands and misrepresents what's going on. Wheels rotate. Giant liquid shells of molten nickel/iron around a giant solid ball of nickel/iron don't.

It moves. A lot. The liquid layer moves within itself also - and in fact it's these eddy currents that generate the Earth's magnetic field, rather than an en masse "rotation" of the core.

1) Where does lightning originate? In the troposphere, stratosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, or higher?

Currently, the answer is "yes".

2) Sprites, jets, elves. Exactly how do these work and relate to lightning?

Sprites, Elves and Jets are well understood.

3) Explain ball lightning?

Ball lightning is right up there with vampires and UFOs.

Rub two crystals rapidly together in the dark. You will produce flashes of light. Movement and pressure in the crust, much of which is crystalline, is thought to produce piezoelectric effects which generate electrical phenomena.

Right. That's not lightning. That's static discharge - which had a brief scientific fad in the early 70s, because people reporting seeing lightning before big earthquakes and it was latched onto as a prediction mechanism. Sadly, it's not a particularly reliable prediction mechanism because it's not particularly specific to earthquakes, it's not common to any particular size/type/location of earthquake and, if it happens at all, it doesn't generate much by way of warning. About the same as the tide going out quite a long way 40 seconds before the tsunami hits.

It's also not aurorae or ball lightning.

 

[Dotini]

*Bluff*

Famine is putting his fingers in his ears and singing La-la-la-la! Very poor performance, and unbecoming a man of science or even-handed moderator. He's losing credibility rapidly.

Sprites, Elves and Jets are well understood.
[/QUOTE]
*Bluff*

Ball lightning is right up there with vampires and UFOs.
[/QUOTE]
Hiding ignorance with disrespectful trash talk, right after lecturing about unfairness and unacceptability is the epitome of hypocrisy. Famine fouls his own nest.

It's also not aurorae or ball lightning.[/color][/b]

The aurora is an electric current from the Sun which flows into the Earth's upper atmosphere.

Obviously Famine has no idea of what ball lightning is, as he is pleased to equate it with vampires. Ball lightning is a form of lightning (plasma), which is about as much as we know.

 

[Famine]

Famine is putting his fingers in his ears and singing La-la-la-la! Very poor performance, and unbecoming a man of science or even-handed moderator. He's losing credibility rapidly.

So, wait... You make bold, outlandish claims - the Earth's core rotates, we don't understand lightning, magnetism is sometimes related to electricity - which are easily debunked with a minor amount of knowledge, I answer your questions fully and factually while you ignore those asked of you and any answer which doesn't fit into your preconceived notions of "how things are" and I'm "losing credibility"?

Pick one. They're all got bells on.

Hiding ignorance with disrespectful trash talk, right after lecturing about unfairness and unacceptability is the epitome of hypocrisy. Famine fouls his own nest.

Obviously Famine has no idea of what ball lightning is, as he is pleased to equate it with vampires. Ball lightning is a form of lightning (plasma), which is about as much as we know.

No-one has any idea what ball lightning is, because it is very rarely observed and unreproduceable. That puts it in exactly the same category as UFOs. All the insults in the universe won't change this.

The aurora is an electric current from the Sun which flows into the Earth's upper atmosphere.

No, it's not. Do you have any idea what the magnitude of an electrical current capable of flowing through 93 million miles of vacuum and causing a chromoluminescent reaction at the other end would be?

Seriously, if you're going to ask these kind of questions, don't make up your own answers on the basis of fantasy and insult me when I answer.

 

[Dotini]

So, wait... You make bold, outlandish claims - the Earth's core rotates, we don't understand lightning, magnetism is sometimes related to electricity - which are easily debunked with a minor amount of knowledge, I answer your questions fully and factually while you ignore those asked of you and any answer which doesn't fit into your preconceived notions of "how things are" and I'm "losing credibility"?

Pick one. They're all got bells on.



No-one has any idea what ball lightning is, because it is very rarely observed and unreproduceable. That puts it in exactly the same category as UFOs. All the insults in the universe won't change this.



No, it's not. Do you have any idea what the magnitude of an electrical current capable of flowing through 93 million miles of vacuum and causing a chromoluminescent reaction at the other end would be?

Seriously, if you're going to ask these kind of questions, don't make up your own answers on the basis of fantasy and insult me when I answer.

Now now, dear Famine, no need to get your nipples in a wringer. I never claimed that Earth's core rotates (reread more closely) and absolutely none of the ideas expressed above are mine, only those of scientists and electrical engineers in a different and competing camp from yours.

Before this electrical fire in Lilliput gets any bigger, I'll retire for a few days to allow you to study the facts more carefully. For instance, there is no vacuum between the Sun and the Earth. It is choked with plasma, magnetic fields, electrical currents and particles accelerating away from the Sun. You're only about 100 years behind the current debate.

Ball lightning has been reproduced in laboratories in Japan, the USA and elsewhere.

Does any of this really matter, except for allocating of Earthly budgets?

Over and out for a few days,
Dotini

 

[Famine]

I never claimed that Earth's core rotates (reread more closely)

No, you fire-and-forgetted yet another gem:

What is at the center of the Earth? Some folks say there is a solid or molten iron ball at the core which is rotating at a differential velocity to the rest of the Earth, possibly thus creating a dynamo and causing Earth's powerful magnetic fields.

And when I pointed out that "rotating" was a misnomer?

You said Earth's core was not rotating. How do you get a dynamo without rotation?

Now, I did my best to upgrade your knowledge, by telling you how the magnetic field is produced and why it's not strictly true to say the Earth's core rotates.

So why am I being accused of ignorance, hypocrisy and conduct unbecoming of a scientist?

and absolutely none of the ideas expressed above are mine, only those of scientists and electrical engineers in a different and competing camp from yours.

Remind me of my camp again?

Before this electrical fire in Lilliput gets any bigger, I'll retire for a few days to allow you to study the facts more carefully.

Physician, heal thyself.

For instance, there is no vacuum between the Sun and the Earth. It is choked with plasma, magnetic fields, electrical currents and particles accelerating away from the Sun. You're only about 100 years behind the current debate.

And what's the approximate pressure of the space between the Earth and the Sun?

The space between the Earth and the Sun is a vacuum. It is a vacuum that has things in it - like, for example, the Earth and the Sun - but it is a vacuum nevertheless. If you're equating "vacuum" to "absence of anything", you're the one who needs a quick data realignment. Even interstellar space is absent of absence, containing about 10 atoms per cubic metre of hydrogen. And the odd Voyager probe.

Ball lightning has been reproduced in laboratories in Japan, the USA and elsewhere.

No. Laboratory approximations of what is thought to be a close analogue of ball lightning have been created in a laboratory - and elsewhere. I can create something pretty close using a matchstick and a microwave.

But since ball lightning is incredibly rare and has never been observed in acceptable scientific conditions, we have not been able to measure, quantify or reproduce it - only something similar.

Claims that we have reproduced ball lightning in a lab are true in the same way that "lightning predicts earthquakes" is.

Now now, dear Famine, no need to get your nipples in a wringer.

I've already warned you once about characterising other people. Do not test my patience. These:

Famine is putting his fingers in his ears and singing La-la-la-la! Very poor performance, and unbecoming a man of science or even-handed moderator. He's losing credibility rapidly.

Hiding ignorance with disrespectful trash talk, right after lecturing about unfairness and unacceptability is the epitome of hypocrisy. Famine fouls his own nest.

Are every bit as unacceptable as:

Don't tell Touring Mars! He doesn't want to believe the Sun's variable activity influences Earth. It's all about the politics of global warming and policy/funding of the Earthly science establishment.

Was. Take some time while you're away to consider your attitude and conduct towards other members.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article7100906.ece

Scientists warn that the Iceland volcano may only be a hint of what's in store.

'the eruption may be only a taste of the future if climate change causes ice sheets to melt further. As the last ice age ended, volcanic activity in Iceland increased 30-fold because of reduced pressure on the earth’s mantle.

“Since the 19th century the ice caps in Iceland have been shrinking yet further,” said Hooper. “This will lead to additional magma generation, so we should expect more frequent voluminous eruptions in the future.” '

Lightning display in ash column: http://www.swisseduc.ch/stromboli/perm/iceland/eyafallajokull_20100416-en.html?id=3

 

[Danoff]

This just in...

Global warming also responsible for pimples, paper cuts, annoying co-workers, crying babies, and, in a recent discovery, the Loch Ness monster.

 

[Sam48]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article7100906.ece

Scientists warn that the Iceland volcano may only be a hint of what's in store.

'the eruption may be only a taste of the future if climate change causes ice sheets to melt further. As the last ice age ended, volcanic activity in Iceland increased 30-fold because of reduced pressure on the earth’s mantle.

“Since the 19th century the ice caps in Iceland have been shrinking yet further,” said Hooper. “This will lead to additional magma generation, so we should expect more frequent voluminous eruptions in the future.” '

Lightning display in ash column: http://www.swisseduc.ch/stromboli/perm/iceland/eyafallajokull_20100416-en.html?id=3

Honestly Dotini, do you really believe this? Or are you just reporting what the media is preaching?

 

[Dotini]

Honestly Dotini, do you really believe this? Or are you just reporting what the media is preaching?

Thanks for that question, Sam. Firstly, I am reporting what an apparently respectable corner of the media is currently reporting about a current event dealing with global warming. So I think I'm on solid footing when it comes to relevance to this thread, and its entertainment and educational value.

When it comes to my belief in the content, I can say two things. One, I believe in the science; that is to say I believe in the scientific process and method, and the use of observations and measurements, in a systematic search for the truth. Two, I have my reservations about certain assumptions and premises which may underlie this and other recent scientific reports. Any conclusions are to be regarded with scepticism.

I hope you were able to view the photo of the lightning bolt in the ash column, because now the link is forbidden for unknown reasons.

Respectfully yours,
Dotini

Edit: http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/photographing-icelands-fiery-volcano/?th&emc=th

Another link showing massive lightning at the center of the column. Mind blowing photography.

 

[niky]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article7100906.ece

Scientists warn that the Iceland volcano may only be a hint of what's in store.

'the eruption may be only a taste of the future if climate change causes ice sheets to melt further. As the last ice age ended, volcanic activity in Iceland increased 30-fold because of reduced pressure on the earth’s mantle.

“Since the 19th century the ice caps in Iceland have been shrinking yet further,” said Hooper. “This will lead to additional magma generation, so we should expect more frequent voluminous eruptions in the future.” '

Lightning display in ash column: http://www.swisseduc.ch/stromboli/perm/iceland/eyafallajokull_20100416-en.html?id=3

Good! Because increased volcanic activity will cool the Earth.

 

[Sam48]

Good! Because increased volcanic activity will cool the Earth.

Are you being sarcastic or did I miss something? Sarcasm is a bit harder to notice on the net sometimes.

 

[Famine]

No, he wasn't being sarcastic. The eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 reduced the global mean temperature by 0.5 degrees for a full year.

 

[Sam48]

No, he wasn't being sarcastic. The eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 reduced the global mean temperature by 0.5 degrees for a full year.

How did scientist tie a volcanic eruption to a drop in global temperature? I would guess the ash from the volcano would block sunlight, but only in a specific region and only for a short period of time. I can't imagine it would cause the mean global temperature to drop .5*. There must be other factors.

The last thing I want is a drop in temperature. It's April 19th here in upstate New York, and it snowed yesterday, and the day before that.

 

[Famine]

How did scientist tie a volcanic eruption to a drop in global temperature? I would guess the ash from the volcano would block sunlight, but only in a specific region and only for a short period of time.

Pinatubo was a very big eruption.

It's worthy of note that, if Eyjafjalljokull leads to another eruption from neighbouring Katla - and Katla eruptions are always preceded by Eyjafjalljokull eruptions - it'll make Pinatubo look like a sunbed. Katla is a beast.

 

[Sam48]

Pinatubo was a very big eruption.

It's worthy of note that, if Eyjafjalljokull leads to another eruption from neighbouring Katla - and Katla eruptions are always preceded by Eyjafjalljokull eruptions - it'll make Pinatubo look like a sunbed. Katla is a beast.

How close together will the eruptions occur?

 

[Famine]

Not only am I not a vulcanologist, I'm not a prophet either. In fact even vulcanologists aren't prophets. But Eyjafjallajokull eruptions precede Katla eruptions, and Katla has been a bit grumpy since 1999...

 

[Mark T]

So let's assume the worst. What kind of affect are we talking about on the earth or at least the European region?

 

[Danoff]

Not only am I not a vulcanologist, I'm not a prophet either. In fact even vulcanologists aren't prophets.

Hmmm... vulcanologist prophet....

 

[Sam48]

All flights in Europe will probably be cancelled for a while (Like now). It could be dark in Europe for days or maybe even weeks.

 

[Famine]

All bets are off, frankly.

 

[FoolKiller]

So let's assume the worst. What kind of affect are we talking about on the earth or at least the European region?

If dogs and cats aren't living together I will be very upset.

 

[DK]

It could be dark in Europe for days or maybe even weeks.

I live in Europe and yet I can see clear blue skies outside my window. But seeing as my country is on the very edge of the cloud's affected area, maybe the situation is different in other countries.

Not only am I not a vulcanologist, I'm not a prophet either. In fact even vulcanologists aren't prophets. But Eyjafjallajokull eruptions precede Katla eruptions, and Katla has been a bit grumpy since 1999...

That's it, I'm calling the Australian Embassy. Let's see if they have any spare visas for me.

 

[Dotini]

So let's assume the worst. What kind of affect are we talking about on the earth or at least the European region?

Assuming the worst (not unreasonable), and Katla erupts, 2010 will go down as one of those years without summer in Europe and parts of North America. Agriculture as well as the trade and travel industries will be heavily impacted. Added economic stress on already endangered European economies might cause serial sovereign default, with Germany abandoning the Euro. Political and religious zealots will predictably call it "the Judgment of God on a vain and fallen humanity". Some current regimes will not survive. Sporting events will be impacted, and whole populations will become restive and angry. Liquor sales will soar, as will petty crime. Darfur, Haiti and other distressed regions will be forgotten for a time. A weakened Western civilization will yield further ground to the East. Distress may give way to madness and war in the Middle East. The southern hemisphere will become the preferred refuge for the elite.

 

[FoolKiller]

Assuming the worst (not unreasonable), and Katla erupts, 2010 will go down as one of those years without summer in Europe and parts of North America. Agriculture as well as the trade and travel industries will be heavily impacted. Added economic stress on already endangered European economies might cause serial sovereign default, with Germany abandoning the Euro. Political and religious zealots will predictably call it "the Judgment of God on a vain and fallen humanity". Some current regimes will not survive. Sporting events will be impacted, and whole populations will become restive and angry. Liquor sales will soar, as will petty crime. Darfur, Haiti and other distressed regions will be forgotten for a time. A weakened Western civilization will yield further ground to the East. Distress may give way to madness and war in the Middle East. The southern hemisphere will become the preferred refuge for the elite.

And I won't have to mow as often.


"Always look on the bright side of life."

 

[Joel]

And I won't have to mow as often.


"Always look on the bright side of life."

Hockey season will be longer too, always a plus.

 

[Keef]

And I won't have to mow as often.


"Always look on the bright side of life."

Ah, now you're onto something! The ash pollution will be offset by fewer lawn mower emissions across the country. Don't you love going green?

 

[niky]

We actually got sleet and hail from Pinatubo... which was fun... and ash clogging up all the air filters and airconditioners and whatnot, which wasn't.

I would guess the ash from the volcano would block sunlight, but only in a specific region and only for a short period of time.

Most small eruptions result in ash covering only a small area... but as we've seen from Pinatubo, you get an ash cloud high enough, and you've got tiny tiny little ash particles floating in the upper atmosphere for days... weeks... months...

Even this Icelandic volcano is spewing ash far and wide... much further than the areas directly affected by the eruption.

-

Bring it on. It's incredibly hot here right now, and we could use a bit of cold weather. Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get a mini-Ice Age and people will stop telling us to stop burning oil.