Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Johnnypenso]

Why am I not surprised to see Scott Adams misrepresent climatology?

You know it's a comic right? Dilbert isn't real.

 

[Imari]

Why am I not surprised to see Scott Adams misrepresent climatology?

There's this thing we have. It's called humour.

 

[Dotini]

This link consists mainly of annotated charts documenting the current and previous solar cycle. I clip just three. The sun cycle is headed in the direction of a new Maunder Minimum, they suggest.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06...17-the-sun-is-slumping-and-headed-even-lower/




Figure 2: F10.7 Flux of Solar Cycles 19 to 24 aligned on month of minimum

Solar Cycle 24 is sitting at the lower bound of activity for solar cycles back to 1964, the start of Solar Cycle 19. From here to minimum though, it looks like Solar Cycle 24 will have much lower volatility than the solar cycles that preceded it.



Figure 3: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2017

According to Svensmark’s theory, the neutron flux, with its effect on cloud cover and thus the Earth’s albedo, is one of the bigger climate drivers. For Solar Cycle 24, the neutron flux duly turned around and starting rising again in 2015, one year after solar maximum. It is a safe bet that the neutron flux is heading for a record high at solar minimum (+ one year) relative to the instrumental record.



Figure 6: Ap Index 1932 – 2017

Figure 6 shows that what changed in 2004 was the magnetic output of the Sun, shown in this instance by the Ap Index. Prior to that, there seemed to be a floor of activity at solar minima, just as the floor of activity for the F10.7 flux is 64. Three years to minimum and the Sun is now back to that level.

 

[UKMikey]

This story is a week old but France has ceased all new oil and gas exploration.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...on-hulot-renewable-energy-drive-a7806161.html

 

[Johnnypenso]

This story is a week old but France has ceased all new oil and gas exploration.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...on-hulot-renewable-energy-drive-a7806161.html

Don't worry, everything is under control. They are going to cut the dirty carbon emissions from nuclear plants by 1/3 and they've got good advice from America:

He and Mr Hulot discussed renewable energy schemes and global warming with Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor and former Governor of California, as part of his trip to France on Friday. Mr Schwarzenegger said he was honoured to speak to Mr Macron and ministers about “how we can work together for a clean energy future” and was seen posing with a T-shirt reading “Make Our Planet Great Again” with Mr Hulot.

 

[Dotini]

It appears some changes are underway with our Sun. Significant changes.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/solar-minimum-sun-getting-quieter-231002138.html

An eruption of solar material from the sun, also known as a coronal mass ejection. NASA

...the team say it appears there are periods where activity on the sun is “altered significantly,” and that this unusual behavior could be a “radical transition suggested by data on other stars,” indicating “a change in cycle behavior.”

 

[Danoff]

Some actual acknowledgement of the state of climate science in a news article... rare these days.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...es-in-climate-science/?utm_term=.d7e58cbd8acc

They're still teasing out fidelity from various models, adding layers of complexity which have a major impact on how severe warming is going forward.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Who has those massive resources of electricity in their lobbyist back pocket?
Whenever government touches resources the price will rise.
Especially if the world decides to shift away from fossil fuels, you think uncle sam is just going to let all that tax revenue on fuel disappear like a fart in the wind?

Negative.

They will find a way to increase the price of power and attach some crafty name to their new tax.
And none of that even includes the effect of supply and demand because suddenly we all need alot more juice to plug in our Teslas.

I've taken this to the climate thread where it should be, and we'll let the other get back to a potential ban on ICE in France. I actually pay bills so I know what I get charged between a gas burning plant and one that is delivered through hydro electric power. Depending on how well I manage my electrical use especially in the summer, I've yet to see a significant difference in money spent.

So what evidence do you have that proves that if Fossil fuels over a duration of time being phased out, like currently, would spell a spike in energy prices?

 

[Northstar]

I wouldn't be surprised if costs rise a little simply because of the demand of providing pretty much every vehicle on the road with power along with the current uses. However one big plus with electricity is you can make your own through various methods, the primary one being solar panels. I think in the not-to-distant future they will be a standard item on any new residential or commercial building. The nice thing too is that you can sell your surplus energy, which would lessen both cost and the strain on more traditional methods of generating electricity.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

I wouldn't be surprised if costs rise a little simply because of the demand of providing pretty much every vehicle on the road with power along with the current uses. However one big plus with electricity is you can make your own through various methods, the primary one being solar panels. I think in the not-to-distant future they will be a standard item on any new residential or commercial building. The nice thing too is that you can sell your surplus energy, which would lessen both cost and the strain on more traditional methods of generating electricity.

Well you get a sizable tax write off for converting your home to solar power, which in the end between money saved through the year in energy bills and the write off means you come out ahead. However, to do the conversion isn't cheap which is why it tends to be something you see upper middle class home owners do. Yet it makes sense in places where it's quite sunny all year around, plus I remember you use to be able to sell back your saved energy to the power company.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Renewable energy will kill people (apparently):

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...g-people-this-winter,-liberal-mp-says/8703836

 

[polysmut]

Renewable energy will kill people (apparently):

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...g-people-this-winter,-liberal-mp-says/8703836

How cold does it get in Australian winter? I know it's huge & it must vary by region?

 

[PeterJB]

Hovers somewhere around our Spring temperatures.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

How cold does it get in Australian winter?

Cold. Less than 10°C.

But there's some context that needs to be taken into account: our government is dysfunctional. The party in government is divided along factional lines - the centrists (led by the current Prime Minister) are setting the agenda, but the conservatives (who support the ousted former Prime Minister) are rebelling. Power prices are a pretty big domestic issue at the moment and the centists like renewables while the conservatives like coal. They really like coal; they're one of the few political parties in the West that still cling to it as the future, and they're still climate change sceptics.

This guy claiming that renewables kill is very much from the latter camp.

 

[Imari]

How cold does it get in Australian winter? I know it's huge & it must vary by region?

We get frosts and sometimes a sprinkling of snow in Melbourne. I had to scrape ice off my car to go to work the other day. It's generally not super cold in the places people live because the major population centres are coastal, but it can get cold enough in a lot of places that it would be mighty uncomfortable without any heating.

 

[mustafur]

Our Capital Canberra is probably the biggest city that has regular(ish) snow in winter.

 

[Barra333]

Our Capital Canberra is probably the biggest city that has regular(ish) snow in winter.

And by regular, you mean twice in the 25 years I lived there? Though there is often snow within half an hour or so from town.

 

[mustafur]

And by regular, you mean twice in the 25 years I lived there? Though there is often snow within half an hour or so from town.

well yeah I mean near it.

 

[Barra333]

well yeah I mean near it.

Katoomba is near Sydney and it snows more often there.
Canberra is the coldest city, but when it gets cold the air is too dry for snow.

 

[polysmut]

Generally Oz doesn't get that cold then? I don't mean to belittle the fact that the weather sometimes causes deaths. I just wondered what kind of scale might be involved.

 

[Barra333]

On a global scale, no. I think the record is about -23C, at the top of a mountain. People were complaining at -4 this week (@Small_Fryz on facebook).
Extreme heat is what Australia does well.

 

[mustafur]

Generally Oz doesn't get that cold then? I don't mean to belittle the fact that the weather sometimes causes deaths. I just wondered what kind of scale might be involved.

Unless its a mountain range of some sort chances of snow are basically nil.

And north of Brisbane It barely gets under 20 degrees in Winter.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Extreme heat is what Australia does well.

It always amuses me when there's a sporting event - like a Grand Prix - and it's 20°C outside and the commentators talk about how hot it is.

 

[Barra333]

It always amuses me when there's a sporting event - like a Grand Prix - and it's 20°C outside and the commentators talk about how hot it is.

Like the 25°C heatwaves at Wimbledon?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Like the 25°C heatwaves at Wimbledon?

Yes (although I don't watch tennis).

 

[Dotini]

For the last million or so years, the Earth has been in about 10 consecutive climate cycles of roughly 80% ice age and 20% warming. I don't think anyone knows for sure what causes this. Do you? If this pattern holds true, a new ice age is not to be expected for a few thousand years (?). All is well then, but for man's affect, which is measurable.

 

[mustafur]

My guess is something in the atmosphere changes like a super volcano blocking the sun with ash or something which makes the earth cool, but I have no idea what I'm talking about so there is that..

 

[Dotini]

My guess is something in the atmosphere changes like a super volcano blocking the sun with ash or something which makes the earth cool, but I have no idea what I'm talking about so there is that..

A cloud of ash enveloping earth for a number of years could cause a profound effect, I'm sure. But how about a cloud of clouds, ordinary clouds, but with significantly greater global coverage?

 

[Dotini]

204 years ago the river Thames froze and the English held a "Frost Fair". What are the odds that'll happen again any time soon?



The Frost Fair of 1814 on the River Thames in London. Painting by Luke Clenell, entitled The Fair on the Thames, February 4th 1814

 

[Rallywagon]

A frost fair? Given bureaucratic nonsense, probably pretty slim. The river Thames freezing over? Given that climate changes cause more extreme weather patterns, that is certainly probable.