GT5 vs Forza3 big time release?

[the_fatadder]

Does anyone have any info on typical trends for how games sell? I'm thinking there would be a very big spike at launch which would trail off. My point here is would that initial spike be trailing off by the time Forza is released (and would Forza affect GTPSP sales)

My point of all this rambling is, that if the initial sales spike is trailing off (and as such the launch of GT5 will not be a significant impact on sales). In that case I can see a lot of logic saying the best thing to do is beat Forza to the shops.

(Leaving the topic slightly, this sounds a much more interesting subject to research than the Finance coursework I'm half way through at the moment!)

 

[dancardesigner]

I don't really think the two affect each other directly, more so through console sales. I'd imagine most people who own both consoles will buy both, and the unlucky few that can't afford to probably buy GT, nothing really can stand up to the hype of GT when it comes to driving games.

 

[Scoop2004]

I forsee a late november early december release.

as for the MS vs SONY,GT vs FM argument i think it has some weight to it.

Ill be playing FM on a friends 360 when it comes out and if its better than prologue ill have my PS3 sold and buy a 360 before GT5 comes out so i can own forza instead of GT..Because, Im a massive GT fanboy ill admit that, but that is only because GTs physics combined with the playstation have been the best among car games for years. However if FM3 has better physics then ill switch to that as thats what i care about. Its already clear FM has better AI (they dont blindly follow the line)

 

[Jay]

How can you know if FM3 will have better physics than GT5 if by the time FM3 comes out you wouldn't have played GT5 yet?

Put it this way, GT4P didn't have the same physics as GT4, they were improved in GT4.

 

[Scoop2004]

I can see GT5 having VERY VERY similar physics to GT5P.And dont get me wrong i love the physics of prologue,however the AI will be terrible,they wont change that. the damage is disapointing.

So long as FM has physics that match the great physics of prologue then i think it will be an all round better game for me (i say for me,not for everyone, some people may think the 1080P makes it better for them,but i dont mind a lower resolution and less cars in the game if it means better physics,AI,damage,livery editor,online.

 

[Reckoner]

to each their priorities

 

[WolfRacer543]

however the AI will be terrible,they wont change that. the damage is disapointing.

AI already looks different in the newest videos we're seeing, and the only info about damage we have is a few short videos where it doesn't look too bad (not as good as GRID, but then Forza 2 isn't as good as GRID either). You wont know what those things are like until we have more info on both games, or even better, PLAY both games.

 

[Rand al Thor]

I forsee a late november early december release.

as for the MS vs SONY,GT vs FM argument i think it has some weight to it.

Ill be playing FM on a friends 360 when it comes out and if its better than prologue ill have my PS3 sold and buy a 360 before GT5 comes out so i can own forza instead of GT..Because, Im a massive GT fanboy ill admit that, but that is only because GTs physics combined with the playstation have been the best among car games for years. However if FM3 has better physics then ill switch to that as thats what i care about. Its already clear FM has better AI (they dont blindly follow the line)

the crappy AI of gt has long been done and dusted. try and keep with the latest GT news

 

[the_fatadder]

I don't really think the two affect each other directly, more so through console sales. I'd imagine most people who own both consoles will buy both, and the unlucky few that can't afford to probably buy GT, nothing really can stand up to the hype of GT when it comes to driving games.

While I believe that would be true for the sort of people who are posting on a forum like this (or for that matter the equivalent sort of forum for Forza), I think for the vast majority of the market (ie the 'average' gamer) they will buy one or the other (maybe buying the other game later on once they have beaten the first purchase.)

In this case how many of these people would go and buy Forza because its released first (and looks like its going to get pretty good reviews.) Especially if we dont have a finalised release date come October).

Of course when it comes to console sales GT5 will certainly be very important to the sales for the new slim, but I suspect that in terms of console sales the Forza release will be of slightly less importance (relative to the need to get GT5/slim bundles on the shelves before Christmas)

 

[Famine]

Its already clear FM has better AI (they dont blindly follow the line)

The FM2 AI is dreadful. I did some kind of supercar race at their New York track and... left my braking to a very optimistic point on turn 1, smashing into an XJ220. Next lap the XJ220 was still nose in to the apex (probably stuck there with the grabby walls of death) and all the remaining AI cars had a giant pileup into it, despite the fact you could see the Jag stuck there from the start/finish line.


On-topic, I fail to see why FM3 or GT5 will impinge on each others' sales...
Each game has hardcore fanboys - they will buy one and not the other on principle.
Each game is on a different console - most people have one or the other and so both games are not available.

At best you can say that the games may shift consoles individually and people may look to acquire a new console on the basis of the one game. I'd opine that in most cases, this will be a PS3 since it was too damned expensive to justify them buying one before...

 

[TeamStig]

Retailers and Sony wouldn't have any time to build buzz for the game in only two months. December is even looking unlikely if PD doesn't announce a release date soon.

 

[Enciah]

Retailers and Sony wouldn't have any time to build buzz for the game in only two months. December is even looking unlikely if PD doesn't announce a release date soon.

Finnaly, i'm about to think that pd and sony really don't care about buzz and hype about GT5.
Just after the release, whenever they release it, all gt5 fan will buy it with or without advertissement (fan don't need anymore information about GT5 to buy it)...
And then after release they have enought time before christmas for other custommers.

"GT5 is out" is the only thing we are waiting for to go buy it, i think there is only few custommers waiting for tests, demo, videos, screenshot...to decide if they will buy or not.

 

[killanite]

Retailers and Sony wouldn't have any time to build buzz for the game in only two months. December is even looking unlikely if PD doesn't announce a release date soon.

I'm pretty sure even without a release date sony has been hyping GT5 up since E3 with that trailer.. You don't need a release date fixated to start telling people your game is coming soon.

 

[Coiler]

IMO thers only xx.12.2009 or xx.03.2010

 

[Dijital Majik]

GT5 buzz is being created by GTPSP. Even though that's what Sony is pushing at the moment, everyone (including gaming journalists) wants to know about GT5.

 

[MagpieRacer]

I can see it being released very close to FM3. Its a theory I have had since the FM3 release date was announced. I dont know how much info there was on FM3 before e3 but FM3 and GT5 had trailers at e3, the only real difference is FM3 has had more info since, in large weekly lumps. PD are probably just holding back ready to unleash it a at TGS and overpower FM3 before it even arrives. How do we know all the promotional stuff hasnt already been shipped or will be shipped before TGS ready to go during the week of TGS.

Mind you its only theories but it would be nice if it happened.

 

[M5_dude]

The FM2 AI is dreadful. I did some kind of supercar race at their New York track and... left my braking to a very optimistic point on turn 1, smashing into an XJ220. Next lap the XJ220 was still nose in to the apex (probably stuck there with the grabby walls of death) and all the remaining AI cars had a giant pileup into it, despite the fact you could see the Jag stuck there from the start/finish line.


On-topic, I fail to see why FM3 or GT5 will impinge on each others' sales...
Each game has hardcore fanboys - they will buy one and not the other on principle.
Each game is on a different console - most people have one or the other and so both games are not available.

At best you can say that the games may shift consoles individually and people may look to acquire a new console on the basis of the one game. I'd opine that in most cases, this will be a PS3 since it was too damned expensive to justify them buying one before...

Here, here! Not only will Oct. not happen, I'm starting to doubt a December release date. They are really pushing this GT PSP thing and they need to boost sales of Sony's latest piece of hardware, they need to milk every ounce they can get out of GT PSP, then, and only then will GT5 take the spot light once more. I'm sorry but I really do blame the GT PSP project for taking up time and resources that could have been put towards the console version we all know and love. Either way I don't mind if they wait until the spring because I know they will have worked out every possible kink and give us the best game possible which is what I would expect for a 5 year wait. Why ruin it by having it come out 4 months early in December?

 

[MagpieRacer]

Who says December is 4 months early?

 

[TeamStig]

I'm pretty sure even without a release date sony has been hyping GT5 up since E3 with that trailer.. You don't need a release date fixated to start telling people your game is coming soon.

Unless you are a dedicated fan of the series (like us) or a hardcore gamer, you've heard next to nothing about GT5. I haven't seen one ad on television, online or in print. Come to think of it, I saw none of that for Prologue either when it released.

They hyped GT5 with one trailer and most recently a very early build of the game. That's simply not enough of a marketing push for one of Sony's best selling franchises.

 

[Ariel Atom Bomb]

If they're smart...they'll release it as close to FM3 as possible, but before.

"OH LOOK! GT5!!! What's a forza?" - media

 

[Darkpitiless]

4 million of GT5 Prologue sold. Anyone still thinks that GT5 needs any kind Adverts?
I mean They already Advertised GT5 at Gamescom by showing the hole world a new car with damage, Like GT5 was all over the internet at the time they showed it @ Gamescom.

 

[M5_dude]

Who says December is 4 months early?

4 months before the beginning of spring at least, what I'm trying to say is that if they truly need this extra time (which they very well might) there's no sense in giving us even a slightly inferior product when they could have taken just a little bit extra time. I know Kaz said "we can release it whenever we want" some time ago but that does not signify completion. After waiting as long as we have we deserve the best they can possibly give us.

 

[TeamStig]

4 million of GT5 Prologue sold. Anyone still thinks that GT5 needs any kind Adverts?

Yes. Think of the sales Sony could achieve if they gave a tenth of Uncharted and God of War's marketing power to Gran Turismo.

 

[Lucas]

If they're smart...they'll release it as close to FM3 as possible, but before.

"OH LOOK! GT5!!! What's a forza?" - media

That comment kinda contradicts you sig, friend.
Unless it was a joke, that is.

But you have a point in there. Sales will not be affected because of people, but rather because of the attention the games will get because of the media.

Games --> Media --> People

That's how I see it.

 

[RacingFreak2k3]

Here, here! Not only will Oct. not happen, I'm starting to doubt a December release date. They are really pushing this GT PSP thing and they need to boost sales of Sony's latest piece of hardware, they need to milk every ounce they can get out of GT PSP, then, and only then will GT5 take the spot light once more. I'm sorry but I really do blame the GT PSP project for taking up time and resources that could have been put towards the console version we all know and love. Either way I don't mind if they wait until the spring because I know they will have worked out every possible kink and give us the best game possible which is what I would expect for a 5 year wait. Why ruin it by having it come out 4 months early in December?

They may be pushing GT PSP, but since TGS is next month, which is still before GT PSP is released early October, I'm assuming there will be a GT5 blowout at TGS, which is still going to take away some of the hype for GT PSP anyways.

If GT5 doesn't show up at TGS for some ungodly reason, then there are no other game shows this year that I know of that it could be revealed at. Though all the signs point to a full reveal at TGS, with a release sometime between October and December of 2009. Either way, I think they're just pushing GT PSP as much as possible right now because I think Sony and PD know that once TGS comes around, it's all going to be about GT5, with some GT PSP reminders.

 

[M5_dude]

https://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-5s-q4-2009-release-date-confirmed/#comments

1.) Open mouth
2.) Insert foot

 

[Jay]

Games --> Media --> People

That's how I see it.

Hmm maybe, looking at a big game media site Gamespot they even show the Forza 3 booth at Gamescom but have nothing on Gt5 at all, not even the booth.

 

[II IVORBIGUN II]

Hmm maybe, looking at a big game media site Gamespot they even show the Forza 3 booth at Gamescom but have nothing on Gt5 at all, not even the booth.

That doesn't surprise me.

Over the years I have found Gamespot and Gametrailers to be biased towards the Xbox 360 especially Gametrailers.

Excellent news on the GT homepage. So the official date could be anounced at TGS and then Sony can finally advertise GT5 ready for xmas. I know Q4 could mean Oct, Nov, Dec but my money is on for Dec release.

 

[dbarrade]

I expect there will be some kind of Top Gear tie in promo... race the Stig around the Top Gear track... just take a moment to think about how much publicity that will generate among car fans and the general public...

 

[snowgt]

[...]

From announcing the gaems release date they need to advertise that date, they need to get the product distributed and they need to make sure than the gmae is full translated and bug tested.

[...]

While I agree with the rest of your post, I have to contradict you here. Don't think for a moment that GT5 is not complete at this very moment. If it wasn't, we would not see it out this year. They may be fixing some minor things up until the last minute (which are no showstoppers), they may be incorporating additional cars or tracks still, but the game is ready to be released. All they need to decide is when to make the release build to send it to production.

So...the only limiting factor would be to produce and distribute enough copies for launch. E.g. Apple has shown that surprise releases with practically no prior information can work, but, of course, the video game industry works a bit different, with pre-orders, etc...