- 229
- Buenos Aires
- We_Are_Alfisti
Really good job man thanks.
List with cars from birthday and level tickets
- Thread starter GSD
- 345 comments
- 158,788 views
- 973
- Canada
- flybynighter187
- 1,909
- Sherbrooke, QC
- GTP_AspecBob
There was no way to associate this car with a level before, since apparently no one has ever seen it in the UCD. It seems that it was only available as a prize car (or through gifting, of course). But with the arrival of the level 15 ticket, it looks like you (and others, too, no doubt) have finally found out the level of this car.
GSD will probably test this for himself and add the car to the list.
GSD will probably test this for himself and add the car to the list.
- 3,024
- Top Valley, NG5
Please add this car to level 15 ticket, Ive just seen it.
2004 HPA Motorsports Stage II R32
Edit:Im not too sure these new lists are that correct as above isnt in the list, And ive been cycling the 15 level ticket for 2 hours now for the Zonda 7.3 for my second acc I need a 0.0.0. Its not showing although there are only a handfull of cars listed fot this ticket.
I will advise the outcombe.
Double Edit:4 hours cycling this ticket over 100 timesbelow are my findings.
Level 15 (13 cars)
Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 (C6) '09 seen 8 times
Dodge Viper SRT10 ACR '08 seen 5 times
Ferrari Enzo Ferrari '02 seen 9 times
Ford Ford GT (No Stripe) '05 seen 15 times
Ford RS200 Rally Car '85 seen 5 times
Grand Touring Garage 1970 Ford Mustang Trans-Cammer seen 7 times
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren '03 seen 10 times
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren (19inch Wheel Option) '09 seen 12 times
Nissan GT-R N24 Schulze Motor Sports '11 seen 31 times
Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09 seen 1 time
Pagani Zonda C12S 7.3 '02 Now confirmed
Tommykaira ZZII '00 seen 7 times
Vauxhall Calibra Super Touring Car '94 seen 1 time
New to list
2004 HPA Motorsports Stage II R32 seen 4 times
Will try again later.
Another 2 hours and bingo its here.
2004 HPA Motorsports Stage II R32
Edit:Im not too sure these new lists are that correct as above isnt in the list, And ive been cycling the 15 level ticket for 2 hours now for the Zonda 7.3 for my second acc I need a 0.0.0. Its not showing although there are only a handfull of cars listed fot this ticket.
I will advise the outcombe.
Double Edit:4 hours cycling this ticket over 100 timesbelow are my findings.
Level 15 (13 cars)
Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 (C6) '09 seen 8 times
Dodge Viper SRT10 ACR '08 seen 5 times
Ferrari Enzo Ferrari '02 seen 9 times
Ford Ford GT (No Stripe) '05 seen 15 times
Ford RS200 Rally Car '85 seen 5 times
Grand Touring Garage 1970 Ford Mustang Trans-Cammer seen 7 times
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren '03 seen 10 times
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren (19inch Wheel Option) '09 seen 12 times
Nissan GT-R N24 Schulze Motor Sports '11 seen 31 times
Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09 seen 1 time
Pagani Zonda C12S 7.3 '02 Now confirmed
Tommykaira ZZII '00 seen 7 times
Vauxhall Calibra Super Touring Car '94 seen 1 time
New to list
2004 HPA Motorsports Stage II R32 seen 4 times
Will try again later.
Another 2 hours and bingo its here.
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- 51
- StrikerTek
FINALLY got the Zonda 7.3 from the level 15 ticket. I've wanted this car since I got the game and it never shows up in the UCD and the 2002 ticket had too many cars on it. Sooo excited!
Level 15 ticket is money...Zonda 7.3, ZZII, No Stripe, RS200 Rally Car, GT-R Academy...awesome ticket.
Also, I got the HPA Stage II R32 several times while refreshing this ticket as well. It definitely needs to be added to the list.
Level 15 ticket is money...Zonda 7.3, ZZII, No Stripe, RS200 Rally Car, GT-R Academy...awesome ticket.
Also, I got the HPA Stage II R32 several times while refreshing this ticket as well. It definitely needs to be added to the list.
- 37
- New Zealand
Has anyone had any luck getting the Chaparral 2D with the Level 21 ticket? I've been cycling it over 100 times so far and nothing.
- 37
- New Zealand
Thanks for that, managed to get it (first time using the Birthday Exploit as well). I was getting so sick of repeatedly getting those NASCARs.
- 37
- New Zealand
- 1,155
- gtp_iLex
Based on my own experience and the data given by Mark above I'd say the Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09 is a 'rare drop' from the level 15 ticket.
I've opened somewhere between 50 and 70 level 15 tickets and I've seen every car on the list pretty much in equal numbers. The only car I have yet to find is the Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09.
Looking at Mark's list I see he also only saw the car once in over 100 openings.
The only difference between his experience and mine is that I saw the Zonda around 5-6 times already.
Thanks for the list btw, it's a great help.
I've opened somewhere between 50 and 70 level 15 tickets and I've seen every car on the list pretty much in equal numbers. The only car I have yet to find is the Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09.
Looking at Mark's list I see he also only saw the car once in over 100 openings.
The only difference between his experience and mine is that I saw the Zonda around 5-6 times already.
Thanks for the list btw, it's a great help.
- 1,909
- Sherbrooke, QC
- GTP_AspecBob
@GSD: You probably have a lot of experience spamming tickets from what I can see. What are your thoughts on the matter of some cars being not as common as others from one given ticket? Does it look like they are picked from a uniform probability distribution, or do you have the impression that some are made more rare than others?
Also, same question about colours. For a given car model, does it look like all its possible colours have the same chance of appearing?
Thanks in advance, and keep up the good work 👍
Also, same question about colours. For a given car model, does it look like all its possible colours have the same chance of appearing?
Thanks in advance, and keep up the good work 👍
- 1,155
- gtp_iLex
Although this question is not directed at me I can tell you that either I am very very very very unlucky (which is possible) or the probability of getting the GT-R GT Academy version out of a level 15 ticket is smaller than getting any of the other cars.
I must have seen every other car in the list over 10 times, but still no sign of the GT-R.
If the cars have an equal chance of appearing, each opening of a ticket one would have a chance of 7,14% (1/14) of getting the GT-R.
That would mean that there is a chance of 99,991% ( 1-(13/14)^125=0,99991 ) for the car to show up in 125 openings. I've opened more tickets than that and haven't seen the GT-R.
However, we would need a lot of data to support any claim that one car is more rare than any other. Furthermore, we would need data for each ticket seperately.
The assumption that the GTR is rare is based on the report by Mark and my own experience. However, based only on Mark's report one would think the Zonda is also rare, which is not supported by my experience. The fact that the GTR didn't show up for me, and only showed up once for mark could still just be bad luck and could have nothing to do with lower probability.
I haven't done maths in a long time, so I have to figure out again how to calculate the significance of data (and how to spell it). I wouldn't mind setting up a little experiment though to figure this out for a level 15 ticket for example. It's better to have not too many possible outcomes and also have at least one outcome deemed 'rare'. If there is any ticket that would serve better I am also up for it.
From now on I'm going to keep track of what comes out of my tickets.
- 4,181
- Finland
- GTP_MadMax
Based on the list by Mark and the car Catalogue by Duck I've come up with these odds / % for each car:
Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 (C6) '09 - 7 colors 15,217 %
Dodge Viper SRT10 ACR '08 - 5 colors 10,87 %
Ferrari Enzo Ferrari '02 - 8 colors 17,391 %
Ford Ford GT (No Stripe) '05 - 6 colors 13,043 %
Ford RS200 Rally Car '85 - 1 color 2,174 %
Grand Touring Garage 1970 Ford Mustang Trans-Cammer - 1 color 2,174 %
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren '03 - 3 colors 6,522%
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren (19inch Wheel Option) '09 - 2 colors 4,348 %
Nissan GT-R N24 Schulze Motor Sports '11 - 1 color 2,174 %
Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09 - 5 colors 10,87 %
Pagani Zonda C12S 7.3 '02 - 1 color 2,174 %
Tommykaira ZZII '00 - 4 colors 8,696 %
Vauxhall Calibra Super Touring Car '94 - 1 color 2,174 %
2004 HPA Motorsports Stage II R32 - 1 color 2,174 %
I also checked Famine's GT5 car database for any missing ones , no missing lvl 15 cars found.
Total 46 cars/color variations that can be obtained from a lvl 15 ticket.
For getting a specific car , the chances are 1/46 or 2,174 %
Even if the car you get is random , opening / hatching 100 tickets should bring you atleast once the car you've been looking for.
MadMax
Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 (C6) '09 - 7 colors 15,217 %
Dodge Viper SRT10 ACR '08 - 5 colors 10,87 %
Ferrari Enzo Ferrari '02 - 8 colors 17,391 %
Ford Ford GT (No Stripe) '05 - 6 colors 13,043 %
Ford RS200 Rally Car '85 - 1 color 2,174 %
Grand Touring Garage 1970 Ford Mustang Trans-Cammer - 1 color 2,174 %
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren '03 - 3 colors 6,522%
Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren (19inch Wheel Option) '09 - 2 colors 4,348 %
Nissan GT-R N24 Schulze Motor Sports '11 - 1 color 2,174 %
Nissan GT-R SpecV (GT Academy Version) '09 - 5 colors 10,87 %
Pagani Zonda C12S 7.3 '02 - 1 color 2,174 %
Tommykaira ZZII '00 - 4 colors 8,696 %
Vauxhall Calibra Super Touring Car '94 - 1 color 2,174 %
2004 HPA Motorsports Stage II R32 - 1 color 2,174 %
I also checked Famine's GT5 car database for any missing ones , no missing lvl 15 cars found.
Total 46 cars/color variations that can be obtained from a lvl 15 ticket.
For getting a specific car , the chances are 1/46 or 2,174 %
Even if the car you get is random , opening / hatching 100 tickets should bring you atleast once the car you've been looking for.
MadMax
- 1,155
- gtp_iLex
I'm sorry, but this is just a guess right? I can't find any data to support your 1/46 chance. Mark's list even contradicts this on several points.
Currently I see no reason at all to believe that the more colours a car can have the higher the chance of that car 'dropping'.
And the assumption you make about opening 100 tickets is also false. The chance you have to get a car with a 1 in 46 chance of dropping in 100 openings is 88,896%. That's a good 11% that it won't drop in 100 openings. Even then there is no guarantee that you'll get the car even after 10,000,000 openings (although you are pretty unlucky then).
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- 1,909
- Sherbrooke, QC
- GTP_AspecBob
iLex: you're quite right in saying that a lot of data would be needed for us to approximate from observation what the actual probabilities are for a particular ticket. I'd be willing to participate in such a collective effort.
MadMax: the probabilities you computed assume that each car/colour combination is equally likely. That is indeed a possibility. Another possibility would be that the car model is first picked randomly (thus each one having a 1/14 = 7.14% probability) and then, in a second step, the colour is randomly chosen among the possible choices for that particular car. A third possibility is that the probabilities have been weighted by PD, meaning they would purposely make a car less common than another.
The way to make sure which possibility is the correct one would be to collect a lot of data, as iLex was saying.
MadMax: the probabilities you computed assume that each car/colour combination is equally likely. That is indeed a possibility. Another possibility would be that the car model is first picked randomly (thus each one having a 1/14 = 7.14% probability) and then, in a second step, the colour is randomly chosen among the possible choices for that particular car. A third possibility is that the probabilities have been weighted by PD, meaning they would purposely make a car less common than another.
The way to make sure which possibility is the correct one would be to collect a lot of data, as iLex was saying.
- 4,181
- Finland
- GTP_MadMax
Duck's thread and the list/catalogue.
Yes , it was an assumption that 100 times would result as success.
As long as we don't know the possible algorithm used for ticket "hatching" we can only assume the car and it's color/livery is selected randomly.
EDIT:
This indeed would require a lot of work and tickets.
The tickets that give least cars would be most usefull for testing this.
Say a ticket gives you 5 different cars at maximum.
Other ticket gives you 6 different cars , the next 7 and so on.
Comparing the results could reveal some patterns that work for all tickets.
Or not.
MadMax
Yes , it was an assumption that 100 times would result as success.
As long as we don't know the possible algorithm used for ticket "hatching" we can only assume the car and it's color/livery is selected randomly.
EDIT:
This indeed would require a lot of work and tickets.
The tickets that give least cars would be most usefull for testing this.
Say a ticket gives you 5 different cars at maximum.
Other ticket gives you 6 different cars , the next 7 and so on.
Comparing the results could reveal some patterns that work for all tickets.
Or not.
MadMax
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- 1,413
- Netherlands
I'll make a seperate thread for this, but here are the results of my mini experiment so far:
Either I'm very unlucky or the GT Academy GT-R is rare...
Its funny to see, but either you are playing with luck factor, or have a better chance to ask the creator of the game themself, to ask what the chances of opening that specific ticket are.
Testing on probability is risky and you can't put a direct answer to your question, just speculations...
- 1,155
- gtp_iLex
I am not trying to figure out the exact percentages as that is indeed quite impossible, at least with the low number of openings I'll be getting. I am glad you are enjoying it though.
What I am trying to figure out is whether or not there is a smaller chance of getting the GT-R GT Academy Version compared to the other cars. I am pretty convinced considering the information we generally get from PD that figuring out myself will give me a better chance of obtaining this info than mailing the developer.
Correct me if I'm wrong:
I have opened the ticket 270 times now. If the chance of getting the car really is 1/14 than the chance of getting the car in 270 openings is 1-(13/14)^270 = 99.9999998%. In other words: The chance of what just happened to me is 0.0000002%. That is either very unlucky (see above
) or the chance of getting the car is less than 1/14. I'd put my money on the latter.However, I don't have a big scientific background, so any constructive critisism is welcome.
- 51
- velociremter
I am really glad to hear that others are having as much difficulty getting a GTR Academy car to come up. I have an account that has 5 level 15 tickets and I have probably opened up this ticket a couple hundred times and still haven't received one. I never had this trouble with the 370Z Academy.
I have enjoyed getting the TK ZZ-II in additional colors but damn, I want some more GTR's.
I have enjoyed getting the TK ZZ-II in additional colors but damn, I want some more GTR's.
- 1,413
- Netherlands
Your above calculation is right, but as I stated: Of opening a lvl 15 ticket, you cannot give a percentage to the change that is getting the GTR Academy (which is one of the 14 cars). We would have thought the chance is 1/14, but we are assuming now that is not the chance...
By short; by seeing your calculations, the chance of getting the GTR academy of a lvl 15 ticket is not 1 out of 14. But the exact chance cannot be calculated. Its testing (and seeing that the chance is very much lower than 1 out of 14, but never a real calculation!
