MH17 Crash In Ukraine. Known info in OP.

[Dennisch]

View attachment 188139

From CNN liveblog.

Death toll update
Malaysia Airlines says three infants were on board Flight 17 making the death toll 298 people.
Authorities are still trying to confirm the nationalities of 41 passengers.
Malaysia Airlines statement said:
154 passengers were Dutch
45 people on the flight were Malaysian (including 15 crew)
27 aboard were Australian
12 were Indonesian
9 were British
4 were German
4 were Belgian
3 were Filipino
1 was Canadian
That adds up to 300 so CNN is checking with the airlines on the figures they gave out.

I know about the post-incident diversions, I'm interested in which carriers diverted pre-incident, can't find any in there.

All American Airlines and Air France.

 

[Sanji Himura]

I heard something on CNN saying that Flight 17 was about 200 miles north of its usual route due to thunderstorms over the usual flight path. Is there any possible way that someone could verify this?

According to Weather.com, there was rain along the eastern edge of the border with Russia at 12:14 PM EST, but I don't think that the storms would have affected the flight path. I'll post the map in question for anyone to view to tell me otherwise:

 

[TenEightyOne]

From CNN liveblog.

Death toll update
Malaysia Airlines says three infants were on board Flight 17 making the death toll 298 people.
Authorities are still trying to confirm the nationalities of 41 passengers.
Malaysia Airlines statement said:
154 passengers were Dutch
45 people on the flight were Malaysian (including 15 crew)
27 aboard were Australian
12 were Indonesian
9 were British
4 were German
4 were Belgian
3 were Filipino
1 was Canadian
That adds up to 300 so CNN is checking with the airlines on the figures they gave out.



All American Airlines and Air France.

Hadn't seen those diversions, I'll check them out.

Fortunate that the plane wasn't full, it can take about 420 passengers in all.

That figure also includes crew, I see, so the plane was effectively two-thirds full.

 

[SniperRed3]

https://vk.com/strelkov_info Can someone translate this?
http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...witter.com/dnrpress/status/483248037629018112 This is DNR claiming they had Buks

And here is a list of flights that flew straight over Ukraine. The top one is the last one. I don't think it did divert looking at the flight data

 

[TenEightyOne]

@SniperRed3, what's significant, that the plane hadn't flown the route before?

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

I'd like to think that a military with nuclear capabilities wouldn't be that incompetent.

They have been in the past and so has our nation.

I saw some stuff on it a while ago on television but here is an article covering a few of the bigger ones.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/...y-of-civilian-planes-that-have-been-shot-down

Also I feel bad for Malaysia Airlines two times in one year. You have probably the worst incidents of air travel accidents unfold. One Plane still missing and no where to be found and now another one that may very well spark war. It's quite sad.

 

[SniperRed3]

Sorry about the double post couldn't edit

IT didn't divert

@SniperRed3, what's significant, that the plane hadn't flown the route before?

Every single time it flew was different that last flight was the first time it went over that particular area. It would always turn in ukraine so it left from the northern border

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I'm thinking the Russians have the black boxes, data recorders. I'm hoping not but it seems likely as the area is rebel controlled.

Reports suggest the separatists have it. They were the first on the scene.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Every single time it flew was different that last flight was the first time it went over that particular area. It would always turn in ukraine so it left from the northern border

No worries, but try using the "thumbnail" button so mis-posts aren't so big

Your table doesn't show that every flight was different, it just showed that different planes were used and that the arrival times were different.

If you overlay your "previous" route with the route of this flight you can see that they're the same except for a small offset. Looking at the HA junctions there are no parallel routes there so the offset is normal for winds aloft.



EDIT: Messed it up. Here's a proper overlay, the flight paths were identical.



EDIT EDIT:

An Aviation "Expert" on the Beeb said "he understood recent MH17 flights had not flown as far into northern Ukraine as the flight which crashed on Thursday.

"The flight today tracked very, very much further north into the Ukraine than the other previous flights... there were MH17 versions that were 300 miles south of where this one was."
he understood recent MH17 flights had not flown as far into northern Ukraine as the flight which crashed on Thursday."

Maybe so, with any number of reasons. His understanding goes against the available flight tracks though...

 

[Exorcet]

I'd like to think that a military with nuclear capabilities wouldn't be that incompetent.

The US has essentially done this, as has the USSR. Ukraine too.

 

[Dennisch]

The normal flight corridor for this flight takes it over the Crimea, 200 miles to the south. Due to thunderstorms the flight flew further north.

 

[JMoney]

I'm really starting to think that whoever shot down the plane did so because they thought it was military. There is no purpose in shooting down a civilian aircraft. It was probably the militia, who are less professional and more likely to make a mistake.

There are actually several idiot reporters on FOX suggesting that the Russians shot down the plane.

 

[ukfan758]

I'm really starting to think that whoever shot down the plane did so because they thought it was military. There is no purpose in shooting down a civilian aircraft. It was probably the militia, who are less professional and more likely to make a mistake.

There are actually several idiot reporters on FOX suggesting that the Russians shot down the plane.

And I thought FOX supported the Russians invading Ukraine? Man they change their sides so quickly...

 

[prisonermonkeys]

And I thought FOX supported the Russians invading Ukraine? Man they change their sides so quickly...

Makes for a better story - Russian aggression, and the old enemy reawakening.

I will, however, see your irresponsible media organisation, and raise your an irresponsible world leader - our Prime Minister has basically accused Russia of being responsible.

 

[AnthonyD1993]

CNN is saying that there are still 41 passengers whose nationality has not been confirmed yet.

 

[Sanji Himura]

I'm really starting to think that whoever shot down the plane did so because they thought it was military. There is no purpose in shooting down a civilian aircraft. It was probably the militia, who are less professional and more likely to make a mistake.

There are actually several idiot reporters on FOX suggesting that the Russians shot down the plane.

Mind telling me who the idiot reporters are? I watched FOX for most of the afternoon, and they certainly didn't put the blame on Russia. All of their reporting has been consistent with the line that a Russian made [since that is what the BUK missile is] SAM shot down the plane. It was actually Democratic Senator Carl Levin (who hardly never appears on FOX) who first blamed the Russians, a sentiment that was echoed by Rep. Peter King (one of the more outspoken representatives who has appeared on FOX programming). No FOX personality has personally blamed the Russians, and is not going to until all of the facts are in.

 

[MisterWhiskers]

I saw on CNN that someone picked up a passport with a double headed eagle on a purple background. After looking it up, it isn't Russian or Ukrainian. It could be Albanian. I'm saying this because none of those nationalities, I think, use it as a symbol. Also, I think that the separatists were responsible for shooting down the plane. CNN also said that the separatists were mostly made up of people who had military experience, but do not know how to operate SAM systems. I personally don't think it was the Russian military itself. It could have been Ukraine, since a lot of their military is Soviet equipment, but they do not control eastern Ukraine.

 

[Crash]

I still think there's a statistical significance that can't be ignored yet; two jets of the same issue, serviced by the same company, each crashing shortly after attaining cruise.

Highly unlikely, but still possible. I mean, that's the whole point of probability, right?

--

This is certain a tragedy, and at first glance looks like it was shot down by the separatists by accident, thinking that it was a military plane. Not sure if the black box recorder would tell much other than what has already been reported.

Looking at the pictures, it's hard to guess where the plane disintegrated. The vertical fin, horizontal stabilizer structure, along with a large section of the empennage fuselage remained mostly intact. But then, parts of the forward fuselage survived as well...

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The Prime Moron speaks:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-...ite-over-people-killed-in-downed-mh17/5607138

In it, he accuses Russia of having been complicit in the attack. The government has summoned the Russian ambassador to Canberra to "seek assurances that Russia will co-operate with the investigation", which is double-speak for "we think you did it".

 

[Keef]

Has anybody mentioned how the rebel groups claimed they shot down an AN-26 at around the same time as this crash? They claimed they hit the aircraft only 10 miles away from where MH17 came down.

 

[Sanji Himura]

I saw on CNN that someone picked up a passport with a double headed eagle on a purple background. After looking it up, it isn't Russian or Ukrainian. It could be Albanian. I'm saying this because none of those nationalities, I think, use it as a symbol. Also, I think that the separatists were responsible for shooting down the plane. CNN also said that the separatists were mostly made up of people who had military experience, but do not know how to operate SAM systems. I personally don't think it was the Russian military itself. It could have been Ukraine, since a lot of their military is Soviet equipment, but they do not control eastern Ukraine.

Unlikely that it was Ukraine who shot down the plane. Three reasons, one it was firmly in disputed airspace, if you can call it that, two is that the plane was moving in a southeastern direction, into Russia's airspace, finally, and @prisonermonkeys should pay attention here, pro-Russian militia have shot down three planes within the last four days. If what @MisterWhiskers says is true about the militia not knowing how to use a BUK missile, then it at least gives the intercepted calls released by the Ukrainian government a bit of truth that GRU was involved in some fashion in this attack because they, the GRU, know how the system works and can operate it, at the very least instruct the militia on how to use it.

Do I think that the Russian government shot down the plane? No, not directly, but they at least had a hand in killing over 350 people (I'm counting the two cargo planes that were also shot down)!

 

[AnthonyD1993]

The Prime Moron speaks:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-...ite-over-people-killed-in-downed-mh17/5607138

In it, he accuses Russia of having been complicit in the attack. The government has summoned the Russian ambassador to Canberra to "seek assurances that Russia will co-operate with the investigation", which is double-speak for "we think you did it".

You could argue that the Russians were involved indirectly since the Buk speculated to take out MH 17 is a Russian design. That being said, I just can't see how Russia would intentionally fire at a Malaysian aircraft since they have nothing to do with the conflict at hand as far as I know.




We also have to remember that this isn't the first time that an aircraft has been shot down on accident, and it won't be the last. Do remember that even the US has taken out a passenger jet before on accident.

 

[ukfan758]

Mind telling me who the idiot reporters are? I watched FOX for most of the afternoon, and they certainly didn't put the blame on Russia. All of their reporting has been consistent with the line that a Russian made [since that is what the BUK missile is] SAM shot down the plane. It was actually Democratic Senator Carl Levin (who hardly never appears on FOX) who first blamed the Russians, a sentiment that was echoed by Rep. Peter King (one of the more outspoken representatives who has appeared on FOX programming). No FOX personality has personally blamed the Russians, and is not going to until all of the facts are in.

How about the prime time hosts? Those being Bill O'Reilly,Sean Hannity, Greta, and the Kelly person.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

@prisonermonkeys should pay attention here, pro-Russian militia have shot down three planes within the last four days.

And if our Prime Minister had called them "pro-Russian separatists", I would agree with you. But he called them "Russian-backed separatists" and summoned the Russian ambassador to Canberra, which is another thing entirely - he's effectively accusing Russia of having a hand in the attack, without any evidence to speak of.

Now, the presence of Russian military hardware in the region in recent months has been established, but this is the kind of situation that demands proof of any claim. To describe the separatists as "pro-Russian" implies that they are in favour of Russia, but to describe them as "Russian-backed" suggests they are receiving some kind of support - be it financial, logistical or political - from Moscow.

Maybe that's just a semantic difference, and Tony Abbott being Tony Abbott, I wouldn't be surprised if he said one thing and meant another. I'm not sure how it works in other countries, but summoning an ambassador to the foreign ministry effective means "we're really pissed off with your country right now". The last time it happened was when our ambassador to Indonesia was summoned to Jakarta to answer spying allegations. For the Abbott government to have summoned the Russian ambassador is an extremely aggressive diplomatic move, and one that would absolutely need evidence to support it.

That being said, I just can't see how Russia would intentionally fire at a Malaysian aircraft since they have nothing to do with the conflict at hand as far as I know.

Russia's strategy in the Ukraine has been to cause maximum disruption in a bid to stall the diplomatic process and prevent Kiev from joining the EU for as long as possible. But it has always taken care to frame its actions as legitimate - the referendum in Crimea was presented as giving a voice to the people, while the mobilisation of their forces was described as a response to a request from Viktor Yanukovych, who Moscow recognised as the elected leader of the Ukraine.

Intentionally shooting down a passenger jet does not fit that strategy. It gets them nothing. Why suddenly change tack a month after the Duma repealed the authorisation for a military assembly at Putin's request? It makes no sense for them to have done it themselves, or for them to have supported a separatist operation that intentionally targeted MH17.

The only people with anything to gain are the separatists themselves, if they tried to shoot the plane down with Russian hardware to try and force Russia into supporting them once more in the wake of the losses they have taken in the past two months. But even then, they accused the Ukraine of doing it, which doesn't force Russia to support them.

It's most likely that they were targeting a military flight, but picked up a civilian one instead.

 

[Akira AC]

So ...


Sadly, most likely a rebel missile shooting it down, I'm a bit pro Russian but this is obviously a big screw up from someone in the rebel side, HE rounds on those missiles would torn a military cargo plane to pieces (as it has) and those SAM launchers are heat based (so there is no IFF system on them to differentiate from friend or foe).

It should be worth mentioning that the flight was going through the wrong air corridor (flying right in the middle of a contested area where cargo planes have been reported shot down):



This was an An-30 shot down in June 6th, fuselage is pretty similar so it could have been mistaken as a cargo plane/spy plane, similar stuff have happened before (KAL007 or Flight 655, both flying in contested areas).


An investigation should follow, but Russian government cannot ignore this separatist 🤬 up, neither they should blame Kiev for it, that said, that plane shouldn't have been there.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

At 33,000 feet, visual confirmation is extremely difficult, if not impossible. Whoever fired would have been going off the radar signature.

 

[Rage Racer]

https://vk.com/strelkov_info Can someone translate this?

Which post? The fixed, upper one?
It says:

17.07.14. From the page Administration.
!!!ATTENTION!!!
The info about shooting down a plane was taken from a forum where local civilians and militias communicate. By the moment of publicing, all users thought that it was another AN-26 of the Kievan nazis shot down, and the post about the shooting, copied by us, was spread among many anti-Maidan blogs. Igor Ivanovich Strelkov [the DPR militia commander, also known as Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin] did not confirm the info about destroying a plane.
Reminding you that on our page, messages of I.I. Strelkov are published with a special banner "STRELKOV REPORTS". All other messages we collect from open sources, and from blogs of militias and witnesses. STRELKOV HIMSELF POSTS ON ONLY ONE FORUM, we just copy his messages here, ALWAYS with a SPECIAL BANNER. If there's no banner, the message is not from Strelkov, but from open sources (either militias, or eyewitnesses, or journalists).

No, not directly, but they at least had a hand in killing over 350 people (I'm counting the two cargo planes that were also shot down)!

Those two cargo planes were from Ukrainian army. They were an enemy of the DPR. Dude, this is a war. It's kill or be killed. You can't accuse one side of the belligerents of killing the ones on the other side, like they were innocent children. Would you also count the pilots of Mi-24 attack choppers as "innocent victims"?

And I thought FOX supported the Russians invading Ukraine? Man they change their sides so quickly...

Well, I support the fighters of Novorossiya, too, but I also suspect some of them of shooting down the Boeing. It doesn't mean I'm changing sides.

Russia's strategy in the Ukraine has been to cause maximum disruption in a bid to stall the diplomatic process and prevent Kiev from joining the EU for as long as possible.

You state it like this is confirmed. We can't exactly know the Putin's intentions about Ukraine. We can only guess and assume.

My Russian's fairly borscht, we need @rageracer1988 to verify the translation... but I'm inclined to think this is terrifyingly genuine.

Well, seems correct, however, at 2:25, "It means they were dropping spies" - I'd translate it as "It means they were carrying spies in".
The question is, is the conversation real and not fake.

In the Russian system, much discretionary control, even of nukes, is entrusted to battlefield commanders.

Well, actually there are special PVO (anti-aircraft defence) officers for that.

 

[Sanji Himura]

How about the prime time hosts? Those being Bill O'Reilly,Sean Hannity, Greta, and the Kelly person.

I watched Kelly's show in it's entirety, she didn't blame the Russians personally. She reported on Carl Levin who did though, so I would be more careful putting words in people's mouths.

Those two cargo planes were from Ukrainian army. They were an enemy of the DPR. Dude, this is a war. It's kill or be killed. You can't accuse one side of the belligerents of killing the ones on the other side, like they were innocent children. Would you also count the pilots of Mi-24 attack choppers as "innocent victims"?

I implied nothing of the sort. I was merely reliterating how many were killed over the last four days with basically Russian-made missile systems that Putin may or may not have direct involvement in delivering to the DPR in the first place.

 

[terminator363]

Interesting voice clip. No confirmation of legitimacy:

 

[mister dog]

I wonder if they are gonna try and tamper with those black boxes, try and blame it on the Ukrainians. Wouldn't surprise me to be honest.