MH370: Malaysian Airlines Flight to Beijing carrying 239 people is lost over sea.

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Sam48
TWA 800 repeat?
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Basically, ish, except TWA800 wasn't brought down by a missile.

It's not an impossible theory, a transponderless unresponsive aircraft flying out of the air corridor and into protected space. It would also tie in with the witness reports from the rig (waaaaay back in the early pages of this thread). It's still rubbish.

I don't know how to spell that thing where you cough the word "bollocks" into a clenched fist? Maybe only a Brit knows what it means anyway :D
 
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TenEightyOne
Basically, ish, except TWA800 wasn't brought down by a missile.
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Well depending upon who you ask. As far as conspiracies go, the TWA 800 one is actually quite convincing in my opinion, but that's a topic for a different thread.
 
Sam48
Well depending upon who you ask. As far as conspiracies go, the TWA 800 one is actually quite convincing in my opinion, but that's a topic for a different thread.
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I was thinking earlier that you might say that, then I thought that this thread is more likely to turn into a long-term air-crash conspiracy assessment than anything else.

Up to Da Modz though, obviously.

The TWA800 conspiracy theory isn't convincing at all, simply the 95% reconstructed airframe and metallurgical examination of the 180-ish debris holes are enough to debunk most of it. It was one of the most open investigations ever conducted; remember that Boeing were convinced early on that the fuel tank exploded and they called in a lot of people to help them figure out how.

The problem with the investigation was that the FBI did decide on Day 1 that it was a missile strike and, from their questioning, we see that they led witnesses into that presumption. I don't know why they weren't more thoroughly briefed or if the fact that there were hundreds of witnesses meant they were just overstretched. That was very unfortunate in cementing the missile theory in people's minds very early on.

Did you read the NTSB report on this incident?

This is interesting: Link

Tobin
Well probably the most prominent -- actually there were two main areas negating missile theory. One, of course, again is the absence of impulsive loading or very high speed fractured and failure mechanisms. But secondly, there was serious issues with almost every theory, or almost every theory as to access of an external missile to the fuel tank.

Even with as I indicated earlier, one would focus on an area where we didn't recover all of the fuel tank, there were components nearby that would have blocked or at least recorded passage of any externally penetrating object and if that weren't the case then there many layers including the external underbelly of the aircraft.

And that was recovered -- a huge portion of that was recovered. So that basically, the only plausible theory for some of the missiles to have occurred would have been if there were missile such that could get maybe through a one or two inch opening and make an immediate left, go in 90 degrees through a seam and then maybe take another 90 degree right and then maybe reverse itself and then come back over.
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Luke Skywalker did it.
 
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I suppose that just goes to show my laziness can lead to my slightly bias opinion. If you haven't seen the recent documentary they did on the event, on Netflix, I found it quite interesting. As I mentioned though, I haven't thoroughly read through enough reports to sway my view. However, I do suggest you watch it as even though it may have some false statements, which I cannot point out, it's still quite interesting, especially the bit where all 200 or so eyewitness generally agree on what they saw, which was something rising up from the ocean and exploding outside the plane. I don't know, I'll keep researching though because I love these sort of things.
 
Sam48
I suppose that just goes to show my laziness can lead to my slightly bias opinion. If you haven't seen the recent documentary they did on the event, on Netflix, I found it quite interesting. As I mentioned though, I haven't thoroughly read through enough reports to sway my view. However, I do suggest you watch it as even though it may have some false statements, which I cannot point out, it's still quite interesting, especially the bit where all 200 or so eyewitness generally agree on what they saw, which was something rising up from the ocean and exploding outside the plane. I don't know, I'll keep researching though because I love these sort of things.
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I know, the eyewitness (and explosive trace) testimony are compelling. The problem is that many of them didn't see the part of the event that they thought they did, they looked as they heard a sound... when you think of the distance involved you can see one of the common problems with people on the ground reporting the same incident. If you look at where every witness was standing you see that many of them were in the same "cone" of vision to the plane and several "saw" the same thing.

The problem was that the word "missile" was used early, the FBI swung into action and performed 500 or so witness interviews. They formed an autonomous group that excluded the NTSB (see the metallurgist's sworn testimony I linked earlier). There was a genuine belief that this was a missile attack... and unfortunately there's a lead time of over a year between the first news reports and a formal report. That cemented the idea of a missile strike.

As the metallurgist says; witness testimony doesn't actually matter when you have the plane (as they did) and can see where the explosion occured, if it was inside or outside, the source (onboard or external) and the sequence of events leading to the break up. From those events it can be seen that what many witnesses think of as "the start" of the event was actually part of the sequence but not the beginning.

Here's the NTSB report (link), there's a huge amount of information about the witnesses as well as the sequence of events. Some really clever investigative science took place too.

Another reason I don't hold with the conspiracy theories is this; too many independent experts and scientists were involved. You could probably silence the FBI if you were The Man. Attempting to make that many scientists lie would be impossible, they'd go and give testimony. Which several did... it was always the FBI pushing the missile theory, not the scientists.

EDIT: Mods, I know this is going off-topic in the strictest sense, but TWA800 is a great conspiracy to consider here as it goes to government cover-up theories et al.
 
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prisonermonkeys
Question: where is MH370?

Answer: not in the Indian Ocean.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-29/mh370-search-zone-not-resting-place-of-plane/5487052
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How odd, I was asked to give an informal talk on this yesterday (which I was unsurprisingly well-prepared for :D). I concluded that all that stood between this and the more obvious conspiracies was the pings, but that the pings can't be attributed to a particular aircraft, only a type.

I'll keep my head down today :D
 
Possible accoustic trace being investigated using data from sensors off Perth that picked up undersea signals around the of the disappearance:

Researchers at Perth's Curtin University are examining a low-frequency underwater sound signal that could have resulted from Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 crashing into the Indian Ocean.

The signal was picked up by underwater sound recorders off Rottnest Island just after 1.30am (UTC) on March 8 - consistent with the disappearance of MH370 - but may have also originated from a natural event, such as a small earth tremor.

The signal has since been correlated with another underwater listening station, run by the United Nations' Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organisations, off Cape Leeuwin.

“Soon after the aircraft disappeared, scientists at CTBTO analysed data from their underwater listening stations south-west of Cape Leeuwin and in the northern Indian Ocean. They did not turn up anything of interest,” Dr Alec Duncan, of Curtin, said.

“But when the MH370 search area was moved to the southern Indian Ocean, scientists from Curtin’s Centre for Marine Science and Technology decided to recover the IMOS acoustic recorders located west of Rottnest Island.

“Data from one of the [Rottnest] recorders showed a clear acoustic signal at a time that was reasonably consistent with other information relating to the disappearance of MH370.

“The crash of a large aircraft in the ocean would be a high energy event and expected to generate intense underwater sounds.”

Dr Duncan said the timing of the signal made it of interest in the search for MH370.

“It has since been matched with a signal picked up by CTBTO’s station south-west of Cape Leeuwin," Dr Duncan said.

“A very careful re-check of data from that station showed a signal, almost buried in the background noise but consistent with what was recorded on the IMOS recorder off Rottnest.

“The CTBTO station receives a lot of sound from the Southern Ocean and Antarctic coastline, which is why the signal showed up more noticeably on the Rottnest recorder.

“Using the three hydrophones from the Cape Leeuwin station, it was possible to get a precise bearing that showed the signal came from the north-west.

“Comparing the arrival time of the signal at the IMOS recorder with the time of its arrival at the Cape Leeuwin station, it was possible for Curtin’s Centre for Marine Science and Technology team to come up with an approximate distance to the source of the sound along this north-west bearing."

But Dr Duncan conceded there were large uncertainties in the estimate and that it was "not compatible" with satellite "handshake" data transmitted from the aircraft, currently considered the most reliable source of information.



Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/c...ce-of-mh370-20140604-zrxaw.html#ixzz33de2QJtw
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Mike Rotch
Possible accoustic trace being investigated using data from sensors off Perth that picked up undersea signals around the of the disappearance:
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Interesting! The zone of origination is compatible with the 'Inmarsat track', there just seems to be a lack of general urgency about this. "We heard something, then eventually we checked some other stuff and it was there too, so now maybe we'll check some more".
 
Location looks consistent with the plane re-crossing land and heading on that Southern track as suggested by the radar evidence from Inmarsat (and the ground track whose source I forget). The account doesn't seem immediately fake for any reason. Obviously that doesn't make it true, but so far I'm inclined to think this is a genuine account (if not a genuine sighting).

Screenshot 2014-05-31 16.10.14.jpg
 
TenEightyOne
How odd, I was asked to give an informal talk on this yesterday (which I was unsurprisingly well-prepared for :D). I concluded that all that stood between this and the more obvious conspiracies was the pings, but that the pings can't be attributed to a particular aircraft, only a type.

I'll keep my head down today :D
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HA you better keep it down!



nah you're a good guy don't worry, we'll get it.
 
Ridox2JZGTE
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/554673/20140604/mh370-news-new-zealand-indian-ocean-kyrgyzstan.htm
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Hadn't seen this, thank you :)

Ridox2JZGTE
Kyrgyzstan Besh-Tash Valley .... not sure if serious ...:(
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Serious and credible while no other firm evidence is in play. The only Southern track evidence is the Inmarsat ping research. That seems strong and also seems likely to be correct. That said, they've found nothing there and therefore must question the data and publicly investigate the Northern track.

I say publicly because my private suspicion is that the Americans (and probably Chinese) will have been doing this anyway.
 
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TenEightyOne
...my private suspicion is that the Americans (and probably Chinese) will have been doing this anyway.
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In lieu of any conclusive evidence as to the fate of MH370, we are free to speculate. :D

I choose to begin with the question cui bono, who benefits? :confused:

Cargo and passengers destined for China were lost. So clearly, China did not benefit, and would still be searching for the plane. Likely on both northern and southern tracks, and elsewhere. :banghead:

Among the passengers were 20 Chinese Freescale software engineers bearing intellectual property: breakthrough stealth technology. Not only has China lost these engineers and intellectual property, it has lost the patent rights which have devolved to American and British interests, including a British corporation called Serco. Clearly America and Britain have benefited. :cheers:

Accordingly, it would serve US and UK interests to dish up red herrings like corrupted Inmarsat data. In this case, any further American/British/Australian investigation would serve to perpetuate the status quo. :guilty:

http://voiceofrussia.com/us/2014_03_18/Stealth-Technology-Seizure-Behind-MH370-Disappearance-5715/
 
@Dotini, as you know I love to debunk a good conspiracy theory. Or even ones of the usual lesser quality.

To be clear; Freescale is American as was the IP on the plane. In the industry this (presumed) loss has started a serious discussion about how many senior/irreplaceable team members of critical projects should be allowed to travel together, a kind of extension of an airline's no-married-couples-on-the-crew rule.

In the event of the Freescale conspiracy argument being true (and it's a compelling story) then China could actually stand to gain a lot. Or the lot.

If only we know who found the mystery FDR ping. If only.

Ah, it was the Americans and Chinese.

What if... what if... what if Sam and Xian were in cahoots to hide the existence of a co-developed technology from the Russians? Hmmm
 
TenEightyOne
Ah, it was the Americans and Chinese.

What if... what if... what if Sam and Xian were in cahoots to hide the existence of a co-developed technology from the Russians? Hmmm
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Uncle Sam is permanently in bed with English speaking Canada, UK and Australia.

Currently the Russian bear is dating the Chinese dragon.
 
Dotini
Uncle Sam is permanently in bed with English speaking Canada, UK and Australia.

Currently the Russian bear is dating the Chinese dragon.
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Hmmm, China has tasted proper Capitalism and rather likes it. They have no interest in the destabilisation of any treasury that they have such a big stake in. I genuinely feel that China has, in the last ten years or so, become much more ameliorative.

Russia and NK are still pretty old-school in their approach to foreign explosions policy in comparison. China will maintain its relationship with Russia politically and economically but would not turn down the chance to have a categorical upper-hand.
 
Doesnt the Americans usually work the hardest to find crashed Boeings ? I mean if its Boeing that crashed, they will usually want to find out how it crashed since its their product. Right now i dont really hear anything from them. Not that i say the americans have something to do with this.

I did heard some conspiracy theories that the americans did this because the plane is carrying some sort of secret part of weapon or something but i never take conspiracy theories seriously so i think that was moo point.
 
GTboyz
Doesnt the Americans usually work the hardest to find crashed Boeings ? I mean if its Boeing that crashed, they will usually want to find out how it crashed since its their product. Right now i dont really hear anything from them. Not that i say the americans have something to do with this.
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When it comes to international search and rescue, the world's oceans are divided up into zones, with each zone assigned to an adjacent country. The search for MH370 is being conducted by Australia simply because we are closest. Perth is, quite literally, the closest city for thousands of kilometers.

As for the American involvement, most of the formal support offered by governments has ended. It's simply too expensive to maintain the search effort for too long. It puts massive wear and tear on machinery, and puts a huge toll on the people working the search zones. The current line of thinking is to treat the search as a commercial salvage operation, combining maritime salvage with oceanographic exploration.
 
prisonermonkeys
Inmarsat, the company that tracked MH370 south says that the search and rescue effort has not looked in the most likely place yet:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-...o-target-most-likely-crash-site3a-uk-/5529576

Which begs the obvious question of why the hell not?
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I am Mr. Anti-Conspiracy. Right now however to me, to my colleagues, to people in various related industries and now clearly to InmarSat... something about this really stinks.

The options seem to be; at best the international management of the search operation has remained as SNAFU'd as it looked at the start, at worst there is some genuine high-level interference (no pun intended) in the search. If the second is true one immediately has to wonder why.

Once some wreckage is found (which surely it must eventually be) then hopefully we'll have more ideas and evidence to form a report, until that happens this feels instinctively very very wrong. I have a turgid, slow-moving brain but my instincts are normally pretty okay :(
 
GTboyz
Doesnt the Americans usually work the hardest to find crashed Boeings ? I mean if its Boeing that crashed, they will usually want to find out how it crashed since its their product. Right now i dont really hear anything from them. Not that i say the americans have something to do with this.

I did heard some conspiracy theories that the americans did this because the plane is carrying some sort of secret part of weapon or something but i never take conspiracy theories seriously so i think that was moo point.
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As far as we can tell by news released, Malaysia is the one that conducted an extremely poor investigation and withheld information and couldn't get its story straight. The Americans didn't come along until they were fed up with the nonsense just like everybody else.

prisonermonkeys
When it comes to international search and rescue, the world's oceans are divided up into zones, with each zone assigned to an adjacent country. The search for MH370 is being conducted by Australia simply because we are closest. Perth is, quite literally, the closest city for thousands of kilometers.
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In my experience, international waters aside, the search lead is the country of origin, in this case Malaysia. Corporations with an interest in the crash, such as the airline and the airplane manufacturer, are also main participants in the investigation. These are required, unlike all the other governments and companies who have helped.

Malaysia has done a piss poor job of conducting the search from the beginning as we all know, and since I haven't followed this in months I don't know if it's been taken out of their control and given to somebody else.
 

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