Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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NATO is all too happy to let Ukraine wither away and simply deal with the political side effects afterwards. The fact that Moldova and others aren't pouring resources into cleaning house in Transnistria is further proof. I highly doubt a few F-16s are going to change the course of this war but at least it'll be fun to watch. What's needed here is some good ol' American shock and awe but that's not going to happen. Frankly I'm kind of hoping for a big Russian screw-up where they get NATO involved so the rug can be pulled out from under them. Clearly the global political situation is more complicated than I can grasp.
 
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That would be something.
 
Dennisch
The might of the United Nations in all its glory.

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Take that, evildoers!
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Unfortunately we kind of set the precedent for selling and sharing weapons. The real difference is that Russia et al won't show any restraint in the amount of sharing, or the types of weapons they're sharing. We're too busy trying to calculate a war of attrition rather than being aggressive. This is the type of strategy that loses football games and yes I think that's an apt comparison.
 
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Keef
NATO is all too happy to let Ukraine wither away and simply deal with the political side effects afterwards. The fact that Moldova and others aren't pouring resources into cleaning house in Transnistria is further proof. I highly doubt a few F-16s are going to change the course of this war but at least it'll be fun to watch. What's needed here is some good ol' American shock and awe but that's not going to happen. Frankly I'm kind of hoping for a big Russian screw-up where they get NATO involved so the rug can be pulled out from under them. Clearly the global political situation is more complicated than I can grasp.
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I think NATO is also ok with the idea of using Ukraine to wither away elements of Russia's combat effectiveness as well.
 
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Daz555
I think NATO is also ok with the idea of using Ukraine to wither away elements of Russia's combat effectiveness as well.
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They're probably also worried that if they get stuck in with Russia right now, China will take advantage and make their grab for Taiwan.
 
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EngieDiesel
They're probably also worried that if they get stuck in with Russia right now, China will take advantage and make their grab for Taiwan.
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Because Scalps, HIMARS and bunch of tanks should being sent to Ukraine earlier. Right after RF run from Kiev. Instead of Kharkov and Kherson counteroffensive operation there could be Melitopol/Mariupol operation with groundbreaking results. Imagine 1/3 of RUAF forces in blockade, big logistical route from Crimea cut off and Baltic fleet meeting with "Moscow". With same amount of resources (maybe even less ammunition). Instead China see that Europe couldn't supply what they promised and US is too busy with its own busines.

News from swamps:
  • massive power and heating shut downs all over RF. Keep in mind that its -20 to -30 *C in those regions.
  • massive logistical center(70.000 sq. m) on fire in Saint Petersburg. Big conflagrations became routine for RF.
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If Ukraine could somehow be effective with F-16s in both wild weasel and air superiority roles, and follow them up with A-10s for ground attack, that would be a pretty incredible combination. This is literally the job the A-10 was designed for but the first two jobs are absolutely necessary. Not sure why this wasn't the plan from the beginning.
 
Honestly it's a little disappointing knowing that the A-10 has almost never been able to truly do what it was designed for. Absolutely wipe the floor with Soviet armor. Well, besides that one time in Iraq...

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inCloud
Will be annihilated by AA. One thing is to brrrrt kishlak with few RPG-7s, other to confront RUAF. More GLMRS needed + F-16 with AA and A2G missiles. Frogfoots were downed in dozens.
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That's why I mentioned needing the F-16 for "wild weasel" and air superiority roles first. The wild weasel role hunts down hidden AA units and then kills them with radar-seeking HARM missiles. This is what we call our SEAD mission and it is still alive and well in the USAF, and probably the most badass job we have alongside A-10 CAS.

Russians have never demonstrated any truly effective post-Soviet SEAD missions. They've tried it with the Su-24M but even the Georgians were able to shoot them down. The fact that Russia never really bothered with SEAD in Ukraine despite Ukraine having plenty of AA that needed destroyed proves to me that Russia simply can't carry out SEAD missions. If we could provide and train Ukrainians to operate SEAD effectively it would be lights out for Russian AA and air superiority could be gained within a few dozen missions honestly.





But this is what happens when you attempt SEAD as a lone wolf with poor intel...



I think the main reason the US hasn't allowed Ukraine the resources for SEAD is because NATO countries, 90% the US, are the only ones with the tech and tactics to do it properly. We don't want that information getting into enemy hands so if anybody is doing to conduct the SEAD mission it's going to be us. Wild weasel is not for sale.
 
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Keef
If Ukraine could somehow be effective with F-16s in both wild weasel and air superiority roles, and follow them up with A-10s for ground attack, that would be a pretty incredible combination. This is literally the job the A-10 was designed for but the first two jobs are absolutely necessary. Not sure why this wasn't the plan from the beginning.
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F-16's alone should be able to do the job. The A-10 has some unique traits that may be attractive for CAS and ground attack, but anything carrying LGB's should make an effective tank killer. The A-10 also has the problem of being helpless against fighters. The R-37 could be a massive issue for it. The F-16 can at least run or shoot back.
 
Keef
That's why I mentioned needing the F-16 for "wild weasel" and air superiority roles first. The wild weasel role hunts down hidden AA units and then kills them with radar-seeking HARM missiles. This is what we call our SEAD mission and it is still alive and well in the USAF, and probably the most badass job we have alongside A-10 CAS.

Russians have never demonstrated any truly effective post-Soviet SEAD missions. They've tried it with the Su-24M but even the Georgians were able to shoot them down. The fact that Russia never really bothered with SEAD in Ukraine despite Ukraine having plenty of AA that needed destroyed proves to me that Russia simply can't carry out SEAD missions. If we could provide and train Ukrainians to operate SEAD effectively it would be lights out for Russian AA and air superiority could be gained within a few dozen missions honestly.





But this is what happens when you attempt SEAD as a lone wolf with poor intel...



I think the main reason the US hasn't allowed Ukraine the resources for SEAD is because NATO countries, 90% the US, are the only ones with the tech and tactics to do it properly. We don't want that information getting into enemy hands so if anybody is doing to conduct the SEAD mission it's going to be us. Wild weasel is not for sale.
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Tech maybe, but one plane tactics are shown pretty well in many of Growling Sidewinder's DCS SEAD videos. There are probably multi-plane videos out there, but I have not ventured out much beyond watching Growling Sidewinder and Longshot.
 
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Exorcet
F-16's alone should be able to do the job. The A-10 has some unique traits that may be attractive for CAS and ground attack, but anything carrying LGB's should make an effective tank killer. The A-10 also has the problem of being helpless against fighters. The R-37 could be a massive issue for it. The F-16 can at least run or shoot back.
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F-16s could definitely do all the jobs but combining A-10s immediately behind them creates a wall of firepower which can push through basically any fortification and create massive holes in the line in a very short amount of time. Utter chaos. Send a weasel team in to kill the AA, then some air superiority F-16s and A-10s at the same time. The weasels create the chaos, the A-10s mop up everything else, and more F-16s protect the A-10s. Within a couple hours you've opened a hole bigger than Ukraine has managed in the past year. Russians would surrender by the thousands once they heard the news.
Brett
Tech maybe, but one plane tactics are shown pretty well in many of Growling Sidewinder's DCS SEAD videos. There are probably multi-plane videos out there, but I have not ventured out much beyond watching Growling Sidewinder and Longshot.
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The first video of his that I posted used NPC F-16s in the background. He acted as the weasel while the NPCs fired on the radar station. They also managed to kill one Mig. The multi-plane tactics were virtually flawless.
 
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Brett
Tech maybe, but one plane tactics are shown pretty well in many of Growling Sidewinder's DCS SEAD videos. There are probably multi-plane videos out there, but I have not ventured out much beyond watching Growling Sidewinder and Longshot.
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As much as I enjoy DCS, BMS is a better reference for real world tactics. The AI is more refined and realistic. There is less content for it as it's basically a niche within a niche, but it can provide some interest insight into air combat.




Keef
F-16s could definitely do all the jobs but combining A-10s immediately behind them creates a wall of firepower which can push through basically any fortification and create massive holes in the line in a very short amount of time. Utter chaos. Send a weasel team in to kill the AA, then some air superiority F-16s and A-10s at the same time. The weasels create the chaos, the A-10s mop up everything else, and more F-16s protect the A-10s. Within a couple hours you've opened a hole bigger than Ukraine has managed in the past year. Russians would surrender by the thousands once they heard the news.

The first video of his that I posted used NPC F-16s in the background. He acted as the weasel while the NPCs fired on the radar station. They also managed to kill one Mig. The multi-plane tactics were virtually flawless.
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I'm on the fence concerning the A-10 even with a combined force. The F-16 is an improvement over Ukraine's MiG-29's, but it still won't have the range to match R-37 equipped planes with AIM-120C or lower. MiG-31 and Su-35 could fire over the F-16's at the A-10's and then turn around. The A-10 would be at its best in areas where Ukraine has air superiority in advance.

Also, as impressive as US SEAD has been, most of it since Vietnam has been against weakened users of export (ie downgraded) Soviet hardware. Russia has shown that it has not retained its peak Cold War era strength but, they won't be fighting NATO, but Ukraine with NATO equipment. SHORAD is also a lot more potent today than in the past and armored columns protected by TOR or Pantsir could prove tough for A-10's to handle. Vietnam showed the threat that could be posed by SAMs when they're on a more even playing field with their adversaries. The significant gap in time since then makes it difficult to apply the lessons learned directly though. In any case the F-16 remains a low cost fighter, and without some of the latest upgrades, it will have some disadvantages against Russian air superiority and interceptor aircraft. The A-10 would be truly tested in this environment.
 
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Keef
That's why I mentioned needing the F-16 for "wild weasel" and air superiority roles first.
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What quantities we are talking? To operate A10 needs to be apex predator and this wouldn't be the case, unless NATO will join the party. I could believe that hundred F16s with few hundreds HARM will annihilate most of RUAF AA, but this is something from pony tales. Not sure if any F16 will join the party at this point.
 
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Some russian Telegram channels are confirming this and some are saying that it was friendly fire. The Il-22 probably returned to base as there is a recording of radio chat requesting ambulances and fire trucks.

A-50
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Il-22
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Peskov said that:- “No, there is no information.” “Then, after all, this is a topic that concerns the course of a special military operation,”
 
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unit-one
View attachment 1319485
View attachment 1319488
Some russian Telegram channels are confirming this and some are saying that it was friendly fire. The Il-22 probably returned to base as there is a recording of radio chat requesting ambulances and fire trucks.

A-50
View attachment 1319486

Il-22
View attachment 1319487

Peskov said that:- “No, there is no information.” “Then, after all, this is a topic that concerns the course of a special military operation,”
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Il-22 returned to base with damages.
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unit-one
View attachment 1319485
View attachment 1319488
Some russian Telegram channels are confirming this and some are saying that it was friendly fire. The Il-22 probably returned to base as there is a recording of radio chat requesting ambulances and fire trucks.

A-50
View attachment 1319486

Il-22
View attachment 1319487

Peskov said that:- “No, there is no information.” “Then, after all, this is a topic that concerns the course of a special military operation,”
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Is there a way for you to post the video of that aircraft track? Or at least a static image? There are plenty of public info maps of NATO patrol flights but I don't think I've ever seen one of Russian flights. Funny that they're patrolling merely the shore of the Sea of Azov while NATO are patrolling the entirety of Europe.



Notice that NATO isn't flying directly over Bosnia, Serbia, or Moldova, although they were certainly monitoring Serbia's elections.
 
Keef
Is there a way for you to post the video of that aircraft track? Or at least a static image? There are plenty of public info maps of NATO patrol flights but I don't think I've ever seen one of Russian flights. Funny that they're patrolling merely the shore of the Sea of Azov while NATO are patrolling the entirety of Europe.



Notice that NATO isn't flying directly over Bosnia, Serbia, or Moldova, although they were certainly monitoring Serbia's elections.
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It's pretty low-res, you can check it here on Reddit.

EDIT: Flight patterns analysis.
 
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