Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Joey D]

Russia doing a false flag operation to fabricate a casus belli? Ya, that's exactly the kind of crap Russia would pull to justify an otherwise unjust invasion of a sovereign nation.

False flags aside, just what is Putin's justification for invading Ukraine?

 

[Dotini]

Russia doing a false flag operation to fabricate a casus belli? Ya, that's exactly the kind of crap Russia would pull to justify an otherwise unjust invasion of a sovereign nation.

False flags aside, just what is Putin's justification for invading Ukraine?

We don't care what his justification is. Our position is that if he invades for whatever reason, we will impose serious sanctions.

 

[SestoScudo]

Warm water ports is what drives Russian foreign policy.

Thats why they tookover Crimea. They took crimea without even losing soldiers. Thats pretty impressive. The one who controls Crimea is the one who controls the black sea. I know Istanbul is a gateaway thats why so many empires and kingdoms tried to control both the Bosphorus and Crimea.

Russians are pretty much growing in the Black Sea and the Eastern Med. Their naval base in Syria is a gold mine to them.

 

[Bram Turismo]

We don't care what his justification is. Our position is that if he invades for whatever reason, we will impose serious sanctions.

And what sanctions would those be, precisely?

Russia's been at the Ukrainian border for months. In eastern Ukraine, people have been losing their lives for years.
And all The Great West says is "We will take measures".

What is the EU going to do against Russia? Russia's getting wealthy off of the EU importing gas aplenty, exactly what is the EU going to threaten with?

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin wants to annex everything East from the river Dnipro. Ukraine certainly has no forces to respond with, and the EU won't bat an eye to send any soldiers. Come the day Russia crosses the border, not one soldier will be sent as support towards Ukraine from the EU.
It's very easy to wave the sanction flag, but so far it's been nothing but talk, and meanwhile my girlfriend's family is growing more and more worried by the day.

 

[Dotini]

And what sanctions would those be, precisely?

Russia's been at the Ukrainian border for months. In eastern Ukraine, people have been losing their lives for years.
And all The Great West says is "We will take measures".

What is the EU going to do against Russia? Russia's getting wealthy off of the EU importing gas aplenty, exactly what is the EU going to threaten with?

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin wants to annex everything East from the river Dnipro. Ukraine certainly has no forces to respond with, and the EU won't bat an eye to send any soldiers. Come the day Russia crosses the border, not one soldier will be sent as support towards Ukraine from the EU.
It's very easy to wave the sanction flag, but so far it's been nothing but talk, and meanwhile my girlfriend's family is growing more and more worried by the day.

Those are all excellent questions, and I share your concerns. My uncle Bud was maimed for life on a mission to bomb the oilfields of Ploesti.

 

[TexRex]

My uncle Bud was maimed for life on a mission to bomb the oilfields of Ploesti.

Presumably the father of Karl, whose fat tits were flopping around during fencing practice.

 

[Imari]

Presumably the father of Karl, whose fat tits were flopping around during fencing practice.

What you fail to understand is that this is all just happening in the imagination of the universal consciousness, and so as a liberally educated Seattle-ite who made a lot of money and owns a lot of property the next obvious step is to send in the alien shock troops. Proper mental health care for your universal intelligence is important, yo.

 

[SestoScudo]

Russia has already reached Africa and is in the process of building military bases in different African countries they are already in Nato's Southern flank which is Libya. Also Russia is planning on building a base in Venezuela.

You also have Russia's use of Wagner mercs.

Russia is growing its not getting contained whatsoever.

 

[Dotini]

The likelihood of open war appears to have dramatically escalated with Russian forces now deploying along the border of Belarus with Ukraine, putting Kiev under direct threat. Nuclear weapons are said to possibly be in the mix.

 

[Blitz24]

The likelihood of open war appears to have dramatically escalated with Russian forces now deploying along the border of Belarus with Ukraine, putting Kiev under direct threat. Nuclear weapons are said to possibly be in the mix.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't nuclear weapons also put civilian Russians under risk as well?

 

[Dotini]

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't nuclear weapons also put civilian Russians under risk as well?

In my humble opinion, the use of nuclear weapons puts us all at risk. At this moment, it appears to loom as a threat or possibility, much like moving a Rook onto the same file as your opponents King in a chess game. Also, it loosens up the bowels of those in Kiev and other points of defense.

 

[Blitz24]

In my humble opinion, the use of nuclear weapons puts us all at risk. At this moment, it appears to loom as a threat or possibility, much like moving a Rook onto the same file as your opponents King in a chess game. Also, it loosens up the bowels of those in Kiev and other points of defense.

And that part gives me anxiety if the report is true. It will certainly be enough to spur North Korea and Iran to do SOMETHING with their nuclear weapons (or making them) if Russia is given carte blanche. Heck, I can make an argument that this turning into the EXACT SAME PLAYBOOK used by Nazi Germany in the 1930s when it comes to gaining back "historical homelands".

 

[Dotini]

And that part gives me anxiety if the report is true. It will certainly be enough to spur North Korea and Iran to do SOMETHING with their nuclear weapons (or making them) if Russia is given carte blanche. Heck, I can make an argument that this turning into the EXACT SAME PLAYBOOK used by Nazi Germany in the 1930s when it comes to gaining back "historical homelands".

Our country is heavily distracted by the pandemic, supply chain, inflation as well as pressing social justice issues. The leadership seems somewhat infirm. This could be the ideal time for our erstwhile enemies to make their mischief without worrying overly much about the US making costly and possibly futile efforts to lead the way to victory in a global nuclear war. Instead we may choose appeasement, which only seemed to accelerate the path to WWII.

 

[Rage Racer]

False flags aside, just what is Putin's justification for invading Ukraine?

Russia didn't suddenly decide to invade Ukraine out of nowhere. Here is how I see it.

Back in September-November 2020, Azerbaijan performed an offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh held by the Armenians, and regained most of the territory they lost in the Karabakh War of the early '90s (which is now called the "First Karabakh War").

Inspired by Azerbaijan's success, Ukraine, who was building close relations with Turkey, too (it's not like Turkey and Ukraine are culturally close - it's more like "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"), wanted to do the same with the territories on the east (Donbass) that are controlled by the separatists of Russian ethnicity, known as the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics since 2014. Ukraine even bought some Turkish-made attack drones (Bayraktar TB2) that performed well in the Second Karabakh War, and keeps getting other modern foreign hardware, such as US-made 3rd generation ATGMs (FGM-148 Javelin). No wonder they're itchy to give these new toys a try.

Just about three months ago, Ukraine used the Bayraktar drones in combat, attacking the pro-Russian militia and destroying their howitzer. Occasional clashes continue since then, and tensions keep escalating. Russia can't stand still if Ukraine launches a full-scale offensive on Donbass - back in 2014-15, during the hottest phase of the conflict, Ukrainian army didn't care much about collateral damage when they used heavy artillery in living areas, causing massive civilian casualties. If Ukraine attacks once more, the people of Donbass (most of whom are ethnic Russians) will be in danger again, and that will be a huge disgrace to Putin (who was supposed to defend them) if he allows them to be slaughtered.

What added more fuel to the fire recently is NATO's decision to accept Ukraine into the alliance, which will allow them to place their military bases and deploy missiles at Russia's doorstep. The recent negotiations between NATO and RF went to a dead end probably because Russia doesn't have any trump cards in hand to play (any arguments or tools to persuade on the negotiations) - except military force. Ironically, Russia's announced plans to deploy its bases in Venezuela or Cuba in response are unsurprisingly strongly opposed by the US - it would probably be a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0. Yes, double standards as they are.

So, what's going to happen?
The Russian bloggers who highlight the situation around Ukraine (one of those bloggers I read used to fight for the separatists of Donbass in 2014), the people on social media who live there, the Telegram channels of soldiers on both sides - most of them report a strong feeling that "it's going to blow soon". They believe the situation is like a powder keg that can explode any minute, within a month or two, at best. But in my humble opinion (I'm no expert, and I'm not pretending to do any predictions though) - it's just Russia's attempts to put pressure on Ukraine and NATO and force them to negotiate. If Russia seriously decided to invade Ukraine, it would do it already, instead of walking around and giving Ukraine more time to prepare.

Anyway, those Russian troops gathered around the Ukraine's border are supposed to take part in a large military exercise in Belarus that is scheduled for 10 to 20 February, and people who highlight the situation expect these days to be the deadline. When the excercise ends, the troops will step back and return to their bases...

...or not.

 

[SestoScudo]

Russia didn't suddenly decide to invade Ukraine out of nowhere. Here is how I see it.

Back in September-November 2020, Azerbaijan performed an offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh held by the Armenians, and regained most of the territory they lost in the Karabakh War of the early '90s (which is now called the "First Karabakh War").

Inspired by Azerbaijan's success, Ukraine, who was building close relations with Turkey, too (it's not like Turkey and Ukraine are culturally close - it's more like "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"), wanted to do the same with the territories on the east (Donbass) that are controlled by the separatists of Russian ethnicity, known as the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics since 2014. Ukraine even bought some Turkish-made attack drones (Bayraktar TB2) that performed well in the Second Karabakh War, and keeps getting other modern foreign hardware, such as US-made 3rd generation ATGMs (FGM-148 Javelin). No wonder they're itchy to give these new toys a try.

Just about three months ago, Ukraine used the Bayraktar drones in combat, attacking the pro-Russian militia and destroying their howitzer. Occasional clashes continue since then, and tensions keep escalating. Russia can't stand still if Ukraine launches a full-scale offensive on Donbass - back in 2014-15, during the hottest phase of the conflict, Ukrainian army didn't care much about collateral damage when they used heavy artillery in living areas, causing massive civilian casualties. If Ukraine attacks once more, the people of Donbass (most of whom are ethnic Russians) will be in danger again, and that will be a huge disgrace to Putin (who was supposed to defend them) if he allows them to be slaughtered.

What added more fuel to the fire recently is NATO's decision to accept Ukraine into the alliance, which will allow them to place their military bases and deploy missiles at Russia's doorstep. The recent negotiations between NATO and RF went to a dead end probably because Russia doesn't have any trump cards in hand to play (any arguments or tools to persuade on the negotiations) - except military force. Ironically, Russia's announced plans to deploy its bases in Venezuela or Cuba in response are unsurprisingly strongly opposed by the US - it would probably be a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0. Yes, double standards as they are.

So, what's going to happen?
The Russian bloggers who highlight the situation around Ukraine (one of those bloggers I read used to fight for the separatists of Donbass in 2014), the people on social media who live there, the Telegram channels of soldiers on both sides - most of them report a strong feeling that "it's going to blow soon". They believe the situation is like a powder keg that can explode any minute, within a month or two, at best. But in my humble opinion (I'm no expert, and I'm not pretending to do any predictions though) - it's just Russia's attempts to put pressure on Ukraine and NATO and force them to negotiate. If Russia seriously decided to invade Ukraine, it would do it already, instead of walking around and giving Ukraine more time to prepare.

Anyway, those Russian troops gathered around the Ukraine's border are supposed to take part in a large military exercise in Belarus that is scheduled for 10 to 20 February, and people who highlight the situation expect these days to be the deadline. When the excercise ends, the troops will step back and return to their bases...

...or not.

Turkey and Ukraine might not be close but one thing is Russia taking Crimea was a pretty big deal in Turkey actually.

Because Russia took Crimea in the late 1700s and destroyed the Crimean Khanate which was closely allied to the Ottoman Empire.

You also have a big Crimean Tatar diaspora in Turkey which in many ways helped bridge the gap between Turkey and Ukraine when it comes to relations. There is even a crimean tatar detachment in the ukrainian army that is trained by the turkish armed forces despite their small numbers. In Turkey the estimates of Crimean Tatars ranges from 150,000 to 6 million or maybe more dont know how reliable that figure is where my dad is from lots of Crimean Tatars but a lot of them basically call themselves Turks then Crimean Tatars.

Russia taking Crimea made Turkey a loser because Turkey preferred the status quo also wanted Russia's access to the black sea limited now Russia taking Crimea which itself is a strategic port basically led to Russia's growing clout in the Black Sea.

About the Bayraktar drones well, Turkish defence industry is growing they need new customers to showcase their weapons. Turkish drones have also been alledgedly used in Ethiopia. Many may think its Erdogans foreign policy but its been decades in the making. Turkish defence industry has been going full steam since 1974 but if they want to their industry to pay off they need customers. For decades have been trying to look for new customers in a defence industry mainly dominated by the USA, EU, Russia and now China.

 

[Keef]

 

[Keef]

 

[Dotini]

Russia didn't suddenly decide to invade Ukraine out of nowhere. Here is how I see it.

Back in September-November 2020, Azerbaijan performed an offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh held by the Armenians, and regained most of the territory they lost in the Karabakh War of the early '90s (which is now called the "First Karabakh War").

Inspired by Azerbaijan's success, Ukraine, who was building close relations with Turkey, too (it's not like Turkey and Ukraine are culturally close - it's more like "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"), wanted to do the same with the territories on the east (Donbass) that are controlled by the separatists of Russian ethnicity, known as the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics since 2014. Ukraine even bought some Turkish-made attack drones (Bayraktar TB2) that performed well in the Second Karabakh War, and keeps getting other modern foreign hardware, such as US-made 3rd generation ATGMs (FGM-148 Javelin). No wonder they're itchy to give these new toys a try.

Just about three months ago, Ukraine used the Bayraktar drones in combat, attacking the pro-Russian militia and destroying their howitzer. Occasional clashes continue since then, and tensions keep escalating. Russia can't stand still if Ukraine launches a full-scale offensive on Donbass - back in 2014-15, during the hottest phase of the conflict, Ukrainian army didn't care much about collateral damage when they used heavy artillery in living areas, causing massive civilian casualties. If Ukraine attacks once more, the people of Donbass (most of whom are ethnic Russians) will be in danger again, and that will be a huge disgrace to Putin (who was supposed to defend them) if he allows them to be slaughtered.

What added more fuel to the fire recently is NATO's decision to accept Ukraine into the alliance, which will allow them to place their military bases and deploy missiles at Russia's doorstep. The recent negotiations between NATO and RF went to a dead end probably because Russia doesn't have any trump cards in hand to play (any arguments or tools to persuade on the negotiations) - except military force. Ironically, Russia's announced plans to deploy its bases in Venezuela or Cuba in response are unsurprisingly strongly opposed by the US - it would probably be a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0. Yes, double standards as they are.

So, what's going to happen?
The Russian bloggers who highlight the situation around Ukraine (one of those bloggers I read used to fight for the separatists of Donbass in 2014), the people on social media who live there, the Telegram channels of soldiers on both sides - most of them report a strong feeling that "it's going to blow soon". They believe the situation is like a powder keg that can explode any minute, within a month or two, at best. But in my humble opinion (I'm no expert, and I'm not pretending to do any predictions though) - it's just Russia's attempts to put pressure on Ukraine and NATO and force them to negotiate. If Russia seriously decided to invade Ukraine, it would do it already, instead of walking around and giving Ukraine more time to prepare.

Anyway, those Russian troops gathered around the Ukraine's border are supposed to take part in a large military exercise in Belarus that is scheduled for 10 to 20 February, and people who highlight the situation expect these days to be the deadline. When the excercise ends, the troops will step back and return to their bases...

...or not.

Tensions are reaching the breaking point. and it seems the dam must break one way or the other, and very soon. The US, Britain and Russia are evacuating their diplomats, and Biden has asked all US citizens to immediately leave Ukraine. Ukraine's alone, surrounded on three sides by a superior force, helpless against a massive blitzkrieg, with all the elements now in place by land, sea and air. Unless the US and NATO offer something better than what is now on the table, I doubt Putin will meekly accept defeat and pull back.

 

[Rage Racer]

According to Bloomberg, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will start on 15th of February. Yes, it's the same Bloomberg that recently did a false start reporting about the Russian invasion already happening, then deleted it and apologized.

It will be funny if nothing happens on that day. I guess the West will still impose sanctions on the RF for non-invasion of Ukraine because all those diplomat evacuations would turn out useless.

Also, I just came up with a thought. If NATO insists that Ukraine is free to join any alliance it wants and Russia should not be concerned about NATO infrastructure and troops being reinforced on eastern NATO members' territory (even when it's near Russian borders), then why are they so worried about the Russian military presence on the Russian territory? Isn't there any logical controversy? Perhaps this is the message Kremlin is trying to send to Ukraine and NATO by these troop movements?

 

[MatskiMonk]

It will be funny if nothing happens on that day

Ummm...

I'm not sure this is the best way to look at it. It won't be funny if nothing happens.. it will be normal... it will be peace. Will it be funny if Russia does roll tanks across borders? Will it be okay for NATO to start putting military hardware within Russia's borders?

 

[Rage Racer]

I'm not sure this is the best way to look at it. It won't be funny if nothing happens.. it will be normal... it will be peace.

Funny because Ukraine's partners are expecting the invasion like it's a given. Just imagine. Many countries evacuated their diplomats, the airlines cancel their flights to Ukraine, the oligarchs are fleeing to Europe where they have their estates. The goverment of Ukraine (that part of it that hasn't run away yet) orders to mobilize their own version of Volkssturm with barely armed men, women and even children. Everyone is prepared for Russia to invade. But then... nothing happens. The RF troops finish their exercise and leave. Which makes all of this hysteria of recent few weeks useless.

It will be funnier in double if Ukraine's economy starts collapsing without any invasion after some more time of living in such conditions. In this case, it would turn out that Russia doesn't even need to invade someone it wants to knock out of the chessboard. And that the cure for Ukraine would be more harmful than the supposed disease...

However, there is a theory that this can also be a part of the plan. If no invasion happens, the Biden's administration will count themselves a victory that will make them look better after the disgrace in Afghanistan half a year ago. They'll say "We did it! We scared Russia off! We defended Ukraine, and did it without fighting!". A brilliant idea to create a problem then solve it yourself. Keep yelling to everyone about the Russian invasion coming then credit it to yourself when it doesn't happen - and you're the hero of the year.

Will it be funny if Russia does roll tanks across borders?

It won't be funny to anyone involved, especially the Kiev regime that will be running away like in Kabul. This would create a lot of short term problems, but on the long term - it would be likely to resolve the Ukrainian crisis once and for all. The question is - at what price. And how acceptable this price would be to Russia, and to the people of Ukraine.

Will it be okay for NATO to start putting military hardware within Russia's borders?

This is basically what is going to happen if Ukraine is pulled into NATO, and in some present parts of NATO, this is happening already - the alliance is reinforcing their infrastructure in Poland and the Baltic states for years. There are quite a lot of NATO bases near Russian borders. But once Russia gathers a large number of its own troops on its own territory near Ukrainian border, NATO suddenly goes nuts. Why, if this is the future they want to Russia and tell us not to worry about?

DISCLAIMER: I do not work in Kremlin or for Kremlin, I do not have any friends in Putin's administration or the Ministry of Defence, so I can't know for sure whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine will or will not happen. But still, I'd bet a beer that nothing is going to happen. It's not a prediction. Just an opinion of a Russian person if you want one.

 

[Imari]

Funny because Ukraine's partners are expecting the invasion like it's a given. Just imagine. Many countries evacuated their diplomats, the airlines cancel their flights to Ukraine, the oligarchs are fleeing to Europe where they have their estates. The goverment of Ukraine (that part of it that hasn't run away yet) orders to mobilize their own version of Volkssturm with barely armed men, women and even children. Everyone is prepared for Russia to invade. But then... nothing happens. The RF troops finish their exercise and leave. Which makes all of this hysteria of recent few weeks useless.

It will be funnier in double if Ukraine's economy starts collapsing without any invasion after some more time of living in such conditions. In this case, it would turn out that Russia doesn't even need to invade someone it wants to knock out of the chessboard. And that the cure for Ukraine would be more harmful than the supposed disease...

There you have it folks, this is why Russia thinks it can do this ****. Because Russians literally think that convincing another country that they're about to be invaded is funny. Ha ha. Hilarious. Pull the other one, it has bombs on.

Even if "nothing" happens, stuff has already happened. The threat of action is real. The posturing is real. The potential for an invasion is real. Nobody takes an invasion as a given, but in this situation it'd be insane not to prepare for the worst. Even if there isn't an invasion, to say that "nothing happened" is some real gaslighting ********.

 

[TheCracker]

Currently taking bets on Weds 16th Feb for the invasion

 

[Dotini]

Currently taking bets on Weds 16th Feb for the invasion

I'll bet against.

I think Zelensky will grant concessions to the eastern separatist provinces and a land bridge to Crimea in return for a Russian stand down and security guarantees.

 

[MatskiMonk]

This is basically what is going to happen if Ukraine is pulled into NATO, and in some present parts of NATO, this is happening already - the alliance is reinforcing their infrastructure in Poland and the Baltic states for years. There are quite a lot of NATO bases near Russian borders. But once Russia gathers a large number of its own troops on its own territory near Ukrainian border, NATO suddenly goes nuts. Why, if this is the future they want to Russia and tell us not to worry about?

Fortifying borders is the right of both parties, but that's not the same as normalising the prospect of, or undermining the fear of, a Russian invasion, which is what you're doing. To me it seems ludicrous to worry about a threat to Russia's borders from NATO, but even if that IS a reasonable fear within the Kremlin then all it does is validate the same concerns the west has over the current situation.

Russia currently has troops along their border, in Belarus to the north, and in regions of Moldova to the west, and they've already annexed Crimea to the south. Even if they're not planning to invade, you have to admit that Ukraine is far more vulnerable to Russia, than Russia is to NATO. The two threats are not equal, no matter how at risk Putin wants the world to think his people are.

 

[Dotini]

Fortifying borders is the right of both parties, but that's not the same as normalising the prospect of, or undermining the fear of, a Russian invasion, which is what you're doing. To me it seems ludicrous to worry about a threat to Russia's borders from NATO, but even if that IS a reasonable fear within the Kremlin then all it does is validate the same concerns the west has over the current situation.

Russia currently has troops along their border, in Belarus to the north, and in regions of Moldova to the west, and they've already annexed Crimea to the south. Even if they're not planning to invade, you have to admit that Ukraine is far more vulnerable to Russia, than Russia is to NATO. The two threats are not equal, no matter how at risk Putin wants the world to think his people are.

I'll add a second compelling reason why there will be no war - and certainly not on the 16th: The Germans need the natural gas.

This is a chess game. Putin is playing white, Zelensky playing black, and the Judge with the whip hand standing just behind Zelensky.

 

[Blitz24]

Fortifying borders is the right of both parties, but that's not the same as normalising the prospect of, or undermining the fear of, a Russian invasion, which is what you're doing. To me it seems ludicrous to worry about a threat to Russia's borders from NATO, but even if that IS a reasonable fear within the Kremlin then all it does is validate the same concerns the west has over the current situation.

Russia currently has troops along their border, in Belarus to the north, and in regions of Moldova to the west, and they've already annexed Crimea to the south. Even if they're not planning to invade, you have to admit that Ukraine is far more vulnerable to Russia, than Russia is to NATO. The two threats are not equal, no matter how at risk Putin wants the world to think his people are.

Is Russia trying to invoke a 1984 reasoning to invade by setting up a 1984 reasoning to invade? If they set up their own troops and make the people ignore any issues internally in the country, (Covid-19, or more likely the economic sanctions that will come from continuing to put pressure on Ukraine), they can justify that the West forced them to invade regardless of if Ukraine were in NATO, the Arab League, or the PRC.

 

[TheCracker]

If Russia is doing all this because they don't want NATO states on their borders, why invade a county to make its own which has four NATO states (Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary) on its borders? Or do they really just want a non-Russian human shield between them and NATO? Do Ukrainian lives mean that little to them?

 

[Dotini]

If Russia is doing all this because they don't want NATO states on their borders, why invade a county to make its own which has four NATO states on its borders? Or do they really just want a non-Russian human shield between them and NATO? Do Ukranian lives mean that little to them?

Ukrainian lives matter. Zelensky will very likely declare neutrality; peace and prosperity will return for all.

 

[TheCracker]

Ukrainian lives matter. Zelensky will very likely declare neutrality; peace and prosperity will return for all.

Your words to god's ears. I sincerely hope.