Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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The cease-fire has come into effect, but there are unconfirmed reports of mortar fire from the separatist forces just forty minutes into the truce.
 
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/02/17/origin-of-artillery-attacks/

“The Bellingcat investigation team used internationally-recognized methods and satellite imagery to analyze a total of 1,353 artillery craters in eastern Ukraine and determine their trajectories. We located firing positions that closely matched these trajectories, all of which were inside Russian territory with one exception (which was less than 2km from the Russian border)."
 
Listening to BBC radio this morning, it sounds as though the (8000?) Ukrainian forces trapped at the Debaltseve "pocket", lacking resupply of food and ammunition, are either surrendering or pulling out.
 
If peace really is at hand, and a bloodbath avoided at Debaltseve, then perhaps Putin will been seen as savior and hero in Europe, and sanctions lifted? Le Pen in France is apparently arguing that Crimea be acknowledged as Russia. :rolleyes:

Edit: PBS chief reporter for foreign affairs Margaret Warner reported this evening that Putin now appears to be in the drivers seat, with Poroshenko and his army now discredited by the disaster at Debaltseve.
 
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prisonermonkeys
Does anybody else think it's weird that Vladimir Putin was taking part in ceasefire negotiations and has promised to convince the rebels to stand down when - if he is to be believed - Russia is playing no part in the conflict?
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Shh, stop being biased by the anti Russian western media.
 
Warner reported Poroshenko to be on shaky political ground; look for him to be challenged or replaced soon, she hinted.

Edit: My guess: The shooting war is over and Ukraine has lost. The peace agreement will be implemented as signed. But much more negotiation remains, such as the exact degree of autonomy for the eastern republics. Putin will not attack other nations but work to rebuild trade with Europe. With his left hand he will build trade with China.
 
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While waiting on my lunch at a nearby restaurant today, I spotted a rather funny live subtitling error on Sky News. In relation to the fact that two Russian bombers have been escorted away from the coast of the UK by RAF jets today, the subtitles read "What game is pleasant Putin playing?"... it was quickly corrected to "President Putin".
 
NY Times article contains links to useful maps.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/w...to-try-to-impose-ukraine-cease-fire.html?_r=1

20UKRAINE1-articleLarge.jpg

Soldiers who were evacuated from Debaltseve drank at a pizzeria in Artemivsk. Other soldiers commandeered taxis and shot up an expensive restaurant.

ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine — As violence continued to plague eastern Ukraineon Thursday, demoralized Ukrainian soldiers straggled into the town of Artemivsk, griping about incompetent leadership and recounting desperate conditions and gruesome killing as they beat a haphazard retreat from the strategic town of Debaltseve.

Gunshots rang out on the central square, as many soldiers began drinking heavily. One soldier stood, swaying, on the sidewalk mumbling to himself. Others, who had escaped from Debaltseve after weeks of shelling, were seizing taxicabs without payment. It was not clear that all of them had been given places to sleep, and one group stood silently, shivering on a street outside the Hotel Ukraine.

At Biblios, an upscale restaurant, soldiers tramped about the dining room, ordering brandy that they could not afford, then firing shots into the ceiling as the paying guests quietly fled the premises.
 
Separatists in Debaltsevo raised the Donetsk PR flag showing that they are now controlling the territory.
Gazeta.ru says that the separatists are planning to take Mariupol. "Taking Mariupol is a matter of two weeks."
link

That's not a cease-fire... looks like they are trying to take more land, just like last time a peace document was signed.
 
unit-one
Gazeta.ru says that the separatists are planning to take Mariupol. "Taking Mariupol is a matter of two weeks."
link

That's not a cease-fire... looks like they are trying to take more land, just like last time a peace document was signed.
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The supposition is that in general the ceasefire will hold, though there may be some violent exceptions. Not great, but better than going back to full scale war. The period of democratic idealism is giving way to one of grim realpolitick.
 
GTPVenomZombie
All of this, all this is beginning to scare me.
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There's a couple of remedies for that. First, watch "Dr. Strangelove", then start watching Game of Thrones. Personally, I've taken up fencing, taking romantic exception to a world gone mad.
 
GTPVenomZombie
Has anything like this happened before?
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European powers were involved in the Yugoslavia war and there was the curious Falklands war, now distant memories.

It's clear Europe is no condition to have a major war, so it likely won't happen. Merkel and Hollande have somewhat acceded to Russia's interests. Watch for sanctions to be reduced. That will indicate prosperity instead of war.
 
Am I the only one here who doesn't feel the Evil Red Bear rising? :rolleyes:
Just peacefully sitting, playing Assetto Corsa and watching anime while the thunder of WW3 is about to strike, right from my city?...
 
Rage Racer
Am I the only one here who doesn't feel the Evil Red Bear rising? :rolleyes:
Just peacefully sitting, playing Assetto Corsa and watching anime while the thunder of WW3 is about to strike, right from my city?...
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Oh, stop gloating!:D
 
Oligarch funded militias threaten the state of Ukraine as well as eastern rebels.
http://www.vox.com/2015/2/20/8072643/ukraine-volunteer-battalion-danger
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_(website)
The eastern Ukraine conflict is typically seen as a war between the Ukrainian military, on one side, and Russian-backed rebels, fighting alongside unacknowledged Russian forces, on the other. But there is another faction fighting as well, one that has gone largely overlooked: the dozens of private "volunteer" militias that share Ukraine's goal of crushing the separatists, but that aren't necessarily operating under its control. These groups have proved useful to the Ukrainian government's war effort, but they pose a serious threat to the long-term stability of Ukraine.

By many estimates, there are approximately 30 of these private armies fighting on the Ukrainian side. Their fighters are accused of serious human rights violations, including kidnappings, torture, and extrajudicial executions.

The longer these groups continue to operate, the greater the chances that their leaders will exploit their power for personal or political gain, and cement their own power to operate without constraint from the central government. That undermines the power of Ukraine's government, risks chaos in a part of the country that has already suffered too much, and raises the possibility that even if separatist forces are defeated, eastern Ukraine might be left as an ungoverned collection of warlord-dominated fiefdoms.
 
Revelations today that things could have been much worse - following the MH17 shootdown, the Netherlands and Australia considered sending in soldiers to secure the crash site:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-...lks-sending-australian-troops-ukraine/6225876

Given that just days ago there was a highly-damaging report that suggested our government wanted to stage a unilateral invasion of Iraq to fight ISIL (which was wisely shot down), it wouldn't surprise me if our government considered a unilateral invasion of Ukraine without Kiev's knowledge or consent.
 
The cease-fire appears to be holding for now. Putin is probably going to come under increasing scrutiny in the next few days after Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was shot dead in a Moscow street. No doubt the eyes of observers will be trained on the Kremlin to see how Putin handles this, so he's unlikely to do anything provocative in Ukraine, which in turn might give the cease-fire a chance to hold.
 
Speaking of opposition leaders does Russia have a proper democracy and not just one option Vote 1: Putin, like North Korea
Seems putin has been the leader of russia for a long time.
 
Ohmygod, they killed Borya! Bastards!

Grayfox
Speaking of opposition leaders does Russia have a proper democracy
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No, we're back in 1937. ;)

Actually, Putin is a democratically elected president. You might say, he's the only option because there was no better candidate. Zhirinovskiy, Prokhorov, Mironov, Zyuganov - they're all like clowns on the politic stage.

As for Nemtsov, he wasn't playing a big role in the recent events and clearly there was no reason for the regime to eliminate him. But he was assasinated just before the big opposition rally scheduled on March, 1. Coinsidence? I don't think so ( (c) D. Kiselyov). Can this be some sort of provocation?..
 
Denur
Certainly, that murder has "Kiev" written all over it.
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Kiev? Ha. They're not even a player in this game (I think). Judging by the way how SBU works, I seriously doubt they can even have their agents in Moscow.
 

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