Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[prisonermonkeys]

Meanwhile, in Russia, anti-Putin activist Alexei Nalvany has been arrested just hours after receiving a suspended sentence for fraud - a charge he claims was politically motivated - when he participated in a rally alongside members of Pussy Riot, who also hot themselves arrested.

Meanwhile, Putin has used his end-of-year address to play down fears of a recession, taking the unusual stance that you don't have to address economic issues if you pretend that they don't exist.

 

[Dotini]

Meanwhile, in Russia, anti-Putin activist Alexei Nalvany has been arrested just hours after receiving a suspended sentence for fraud - a charge he claims was politically motivated - when he participated in a rally alongside members of Pussy Riot, who also hot themselves arrested.

Meanwhile, Putin has used his end-of-year address to play down fears of a recession, taking the unusual stance that you don't have to address economic issues if you pretend that they don't exist.

Russia's economic troubles are, we would like to think, partially due to the US sanctions and to the rather more reluctant European sanctions. But mainly they are due to the halving in the price of oil, the major Russian export together with natural gas, which has not suffered any such price loss. But oil prices are cyclical, and of course they will come rushing back again, together with a richer Russian bear, but we can't say when.

Ukraine's problems, centering on a lack of funds and a mountainous debt, compounded by eastern provinces breaking away, will not be solved any time soon. They are all, east and west, being stretched nicely on a torture rack, pending the resolution of the fun and games between the US and Russia. Little media birds are chirping about new negotiations between Obama/Kerry and Putin/Lavrov. Spring 2015 may bring a thaw in the cold war. That is my New Year's prediction. But make no mistake, there is room for only one empire on Earth. Our objective is nothing less than regime change in Russia, culminating in the break-up of that overly large (but underpopulated nation) into statelets more suitable for management of the empire's resources.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Russia's economic troubles are, we would like to think, partially due to the US sanctions and to the rather more reluctant European sanctions. But mainly they are due to the halving in the price of oil, the major Russian export together with natural gas, which has not suffered any such price loss. But oil prices are cyclical, and of course they will come rushing back again, together with a richer Russian bear, but we can't say when.

Oh, of course. The problem is that the Russians have been running their economy off their oil and gas exports for years. With the price of oil down, they have been burning through their cash reserves to prop the economy up. So now it's a race between the price of oil and the Russian reserves to see which one gives out first.

 

[Dotini]

Oh, of course. The problem is that the Russians have been running their economy off their oil and gas exports for years. With the price of oil down, they have been burning through their cash reserves to prop the economy up. So now it's a race between the price of oil and the Russian reserves to see which one gives out first.

I neglected to post this: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-31/inside-obamas-secret-outreach-to-russia

 

[Scaff]

Rather concerning twist on the Russian volunteers fighting in the Ukraine, with one speaking to a BBC news crew describing it as a Holy War, to unite Russia as an Orthodox Christian state.

Its also claimed that a Protestant church was reconsecrated as Orthodox and a new priest (Orthodox) brought in.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30739110

If either of them are accurate its a potentially worrying twist.

 

[Liquid]

@Scaff So for whom are these Russian volunteers working for exactly? Given 20th century history and the principles of the Soviet Union and aligned states such as Albania and Romania, it would be surprising if Federal Russia was actively looking to realign with its Church. I hope, if even true, that these reconsecrations and "holy war" volunteers are isolated pockets and not mainstream thought.

 

[Scaff]

@Scaff So for whom are these Russian volunteers working for exactly? Given 20th century history and the principles of the Soviet Union and aligned states such as Albania and Romania, it would be surprising if Federal Russia was actively looking to realign with its Church. I hope, if even true, that these reconsecrations and "holy war" volunteers are isolated pockets and not mainstream thought.

Its not clear at all, two possibilities are that they work for the rebels directly or for the rebels via the Russian state.

 

[Rage Racer]

@Scaff well, I can tell that there is no such government line over here to reunite the Russian Empire as an Orthodox state. Such statement is nothing more than a fantasy of, uhm, let's say, "highly Orthodox" people who wave black-yellow-white flags, wish to bring the monarchy back and restore the borders of 1867. There's no need to associate it with the Kremlin's real stance.

 

[Liquid]

@ScaffSuch statement is nothing more than a fantasy of, uhm, let's say, "highly Orthodox" people who wave black-yellow-white flags, wish to bring the monarchy back and restore the borders of 1867. There's no need to associate it with the Kremlin's real stance.

I wasn't, I was merely curious as to where exactly these sorts of people fit in and on whose side.

Out of interest, do you have a map of Russia's 1867 borders?

 

[Rage Racer]

Out of interest, do you have a map of Russia's 1867 borders?

 

[Scaff]

@Scaff well, I can tell that there is no such government line over here to reunite the Russian Empire as an Orthodox state. Such statement is nothing more than a fantasy of, uhm, let's say, "highly Orthodox" people who wave black-yellow-white flags, wish to bring the monarchy back and restore the borders of 1867. There's no need to associate it with the Kremlin's real stance.

I didn't?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Interpol have put a red notice out on Yanukovych:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-...viktor-yanukovych-on-most-wanted-list/6013516

 

[Leonidae@MFT]

In case you guys didn't notice, Russians have attacked again and Ukraine is doing full mobilization.

 

[Dotini]

In case you guys didn't notice, Russians have attacked again and Ukraine is doing full mobilization.

Oh, is someone getting serious? I doubt it. This little boutique war has miles to go yet.

 

[Leonidae@MFT]

Mariupol is under attack by the "rebels".

 

[Rage Racer]

Mariupol is under attack by the "rebels".

Excuse me, do you think that the attackers are not actually rebels?

 

[Leonidae@MFT]

They definitely have far better equipment than what usual run of the mill rebels would have.

 

[Rage Racer]

They definitely have far better equipment than what usual run of the mill rebels would have.

Maybe, but so ISIS militants seem to have. Supplying the rebels with hardware (which isn't too much denied by Kremlin) and direct invasion are different things.

Also, what exactly equipment are you talikng about?

 

[Leonidae@MFT]

I'm talking about the rocket strikes done in Mariupol.

 

[Rage Racer]

I'm talking about the rocket strikes done in Mariupol.

Uhm... BM-21 Grad systems are not too hard to use. They could have been captured from the Ukrainian govt forces or looted from the local storage bases.

The same type of MRLs was also used by the Chechen insurgents during the first Chechen war, and the Armenian paramilitaries during the Karabakh conflict, for example.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I'm talking about the rocket strikes done in Mariupol.

Just ignore Rage Racer. If Putin got on live television and announced plans to invade Ukraine, Rage Racer would find a way to explain how it was a trick carried out by the Ukrainians to convince the world that Putin is evil.

 

[Leonidae@MFT]

Oh, ok..

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Oh, ok..

Yes. But look on the bright side - we have found the only person in the world who believes Russia has nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.

 

[Dotini]

It's silly to pretend Russia has nothing to do with it. IMO, they have a perfect right - even a responsibility - to do what they are doing.

http://www.substancenews.net/articles.php?page=5396&section=Article

 

[Rage Racer]

Oh, how clever - to attack the opponent personally when you have nothing to say on the subject.
I was trying to do a constructive conversation and explain why rocket fire is not a proof of a Russian invasion. But then, someone has to show up and say "He believes something I don't, ignore him, eh!".

Yes. But look on the bright side - we have found the only person in the world who believes Russia has nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.

I did not say this.
Are there any Russian governmental army units in eastern Ukraine? I can't know that, I haven't been in the war zone. And neither you can. (But why do some of you act like they know The Truth?)

However, there are some things I'm sure of:
1) If there was a real invasion of RF Armed Forces, it would be already over, quickly.
2) If those fighters clamed to be 'pro-Russian rebels' were actually 'super-secret Russian Spetsnaz operators', they wouldn't be showing their faces off for cameras like that.

Possibly, there is a small number of RFAF servicemen in the area - advisors, vehicle specialists, recon teams (who share their intel data with the DPR/LPR militants), and even fire support teams (who act occasionally where the militia gets hit hard). But calling every separatist fighter 'a Russian soldier' is absurd IMO.

 

[Joel]

1) If there was a real invasion of RF Armed Forces, it would be already over, quickly.

That doesn't really discredit the idea that the rebellion is being significantly aided by Russian forces. Nobody said "Russia is invading Ukraine", but it's getting pretty tough at this point to see this as a genuine rebellion that would be able to do this on its own. Of course a full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be over in days. It would also make it pretty difficult to plausibly deny that the Russian military was behind it. The whole point of this is that there's plausible deniability from Russia.

 

[Dotini]

That doesn't really discredit the idea that the rebellion is being significantly aided by Russian forces. Nobody said "Russia is invading Ukraine", but it's getting pretty tough at this point to see this as a genuine rebellion that would be able to do this on its own. Of course a full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be over in days. It would also make it pretty difficult to plausibly deny that the Russian military was behind it. The whole point of this is that there's plausible deniability from Russia.

All true, but remember, there would have been no rebellion if there had been no revolutionary coup d'etat and overthrow of the elected president and his government. And that coup was aided and abetted by prominent US and EU figures.

 

[Dotini]

Rapid and dangerous escalation looms in Ukraine.

http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2015/02/02/u-s-russia-clash-in-ukraine/

Thus far, despite evidence of Russian advisers in Ukraine and claims of Russian tank presence, Putin denies that he has intervened. But if U.S. cargo planes start arriving in Kiev with Javelin anti-tank missiles, Putin would face several choices.

He could back down, abandon the rebels, and be seen as a bully who, despite his bluster, does not stand up for Russians everywhere.

More in character, he could take U.S. intervention as a challenge and send in armor and artillery to enable the rebels to consolidate their gains, then warn Kiev that, rather than see the rebels routed, Moscow will intervene militarily.

Or Putin could order in the Russian army before U.S. weapons arrive, capture Mariupol, establish a land bridge to Crimea, and then tell Kiev he is ready to negotiate.

 

[Keef]

Rapid and dangerous escalation looms in Ukraine.

http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2015/02/02/u-s-russia-clash-in-ukraine/

Thus far, despite evidence of Russian advisers in Ukraine and claims of Russian tank presence, Putin denies that he has intervened. But if U.S. cargo planes start arriving in Kiev with Javelin anti-tank missiles, Putin would face several choices.

He could back down, abandon the rebels, and be seen as a bully who, despite his bluster, does not stand up for Russians everywhere.

More in character, he could take U.S. intervention as a challenge and send in armor and artillery to enable the rebels to consolidate their gains, then warn Kiev that, rather than see the rebels routed, Moscow will intervene militarily.

Or Putin could order in the Russian army before U.S. weapons arrive, capture Mariupol, establish a land bridge to Crimea, and then tell Kiev he is ready to negotiate.

I think the US should halt any ideas of getting involved immediately. Russia doesn't have the resources to be a threat to us so using our own resources to help protect a country which has nothing to offer us but more headaches, Ukraine, is a complete waste of effort.

 

[Dotini]

Here it comes, if anyone cares.
http://www.economist.com/news/europ...-war-ukraine-and-his-confrontational-rhetoric