Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Rage Racer]

Can't read this without facepalm.

“Redeployment of military equipment and of Russian mercenaries to the frontline continues,” he said.

So, mercenaries or regular troops? Comrade Lysenko, could you please choose one?

“They bomb us from all directions, the west, the east, the south and it is killing people,” one local hiding in his basement told News Corp.

“We don’t have electricity or gas, no water and it is very hard. People are cooking what they can, potatoes, on open fires but it is all very dangerous.

“Western people no longer hearing I think about the killings, many children die going to school. “Two boys were killed playing football in their school and 10 or maybe more taken to the central hospital. Many people die at hands of both sides.”

Somehow this article fails to mention that the artillery fire on Donetsk comes from Ukrainian army.

Meanwhile, there were unconfirmed reports former Soviet soldier and Russian-backed militia leader Igor Beslar who allegedly admitted responsibility for the shooting down of MH17 had been killed in an internal militia conflict.

Admitted responsibility? Are they talking about that "intecepted conversation"?

NATO could not confirm the report of the death nor the movement of armaments and men across the border from Russia.

“If this crossing into Ukraine is confirmed, it would be further evidence of Russia’s aggression and direct involvement in destabilising Ukraine,” a spokesman said.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the movement “if confirmed ... would be another blatant violation of the Minsk agreement,” referring to the September 5 pact.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed “deep concern” about the reports of Russian troop movements and spoke by phone Friday with Mr Poroshenko.

So it's not even confirmed, but they're already "concerned" (and prepare more sanctions, I guess). Clever.

 

[Dotini]

That Ukraine is descended into a failed state is, to me, darkly funny and apropos. It illustrates what happens when you send girls, Victoria Nuland and Catharine Ashton, to do a man's job.

That the US is now in a new cold war with Russia over the ensuing mess and sanctions, is also amusing; Noam Chomsky, the great worrier, is wringing his hands with fear over what he dubs the heightened probability of a nuclear war between Russia and the US.

But there are no serious worries. This little boutique war and its human deaths are but small when compared to the deaths caused by disease. The 1918 Spanish flu took over 50 million lives in a single year, a far greater toll than WW1, which took 4 years to kill only 37 million.

Whatever occurs from this point forward is going to be all good, because it was sanctioned and justified in the name of democracy and commerce. So we don't look back at original causes or conspiracy theories. Our conscience is clear as we march up the path of true righteousness. We can do no wrong.

 

[terminator363]

No matter what everyone thinks about the crisis there's no denying this is a catchy tune:

(Loving those drums)

 

[Grayfox]

Time to hit the dance clubs of russia.

 

[Dotini]

Is the EU being played like a cheap harmonica by Ukrainian oligarchs?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...is-eu-suspicion-insight-idUSKCN0IT0MM20141109


Meanwhile, shelling resumes.
http://news.antiwar.com/2014/11/09/ukraine-launches-worst-shelling-of-rebel-donetsk-in-over-a-month/

 

[Rage Racer]

No matter what everyone thinks about the crisis there's no denying this is a catchy tune:

(Loving those drums)

Uhm... The tune may be catchy, but the lyrics aren't clever. It's "Putin - [uncensored Russian word]", then "La-la-la-la-la-la-la-la" three times. A former interim Foreign Minister of Ukraine - Andriy Deschitsa - had performed the lyrics in front of the Russian embassy in Kiev, and became famous as an FM who publicly insulted a president of a neighbouring country.
More info (language warning)
However, even the Russians who respect Putin, sometimes sing this chant too, but replace "Putin" for "Porokh" (shortened "Poroshenko").

P.S. Mods, is it AUP-friendly to post profanity in other languages?

Time to hit the dance clubs of russia.

I'm afraid the DJ who plays this may get arrested.

Meanwhile: remember when I told that the Ukrainian govt was lying about the "Russian invasion" so many times that if a real invasion happens, no one will believe them? So, it looks like now is the time
OSCE reports a large military convoy (including tanks and 122mm howitzers) heading from the Russian border to the DPR-controlled territory.

Summary

In the city of Donetsk and in Makeevka (25km north-east of Donetsk city), in “DPR”-controlled territory, the SMM observed convoys of heavy weapons and tanks. At the time of reporting, the SMM could hear heavy, outgoing shelling to the north and northwest of the city’s outskirts, which had started at 14:45hrs.

Detail

At 13:55hrs, on the eastern outskirts of Makeevka (25km north-east of Donetsk), within territory under control of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”), the SMM observed a convoy of more than 40 trucks and tankers moving west on highway H-21.

Of these 19 were large trucks – Kamaz type, covered, and without markings or number plates – each towing a 122mm howitzer and containing personnel in dark green uniforms without insignia. Fifteen were Kraz troop carriers. The SMM was on the move and could therefore not ascertain the contents of these. The remaining six were small fuel tankers, fitted with cranes. The SMM observed an unmarked BTR armoured personnel carrier leading the convoy, with a tarpaulin over the gun.

At 15:20hrs, at the intersection of Leninskyi Street and Kuprin Street (7km south-west of Donetsk city centre) the SMM observed a convoy of nine tanks – four T72 and five T64 – moving west, also unmarked.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126483

So, what do you think? Another supply for the rebels, or finally the Polite People have come to eliminate the Ukrainian artillery?

 

[Dotini]

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126483

So, what do you think? Another supply for the rebels, or finally the Polite People have come to eliminate the Ukrainian artillery?

These sightings have not been confirmed by the Pentagon. Therefore they are mere rumors or propaganda.

 

[Rage Racer]

These sightings have not been confirmed by the Pentagon. Therefore they are mere rumors or propaganda.

Perhaps you're right. I don't see it on TVRain, either.

 

[MarchingSaint]

But there are no serious worries. This little boutique war and its human deaths are but small when compared to the deaths caused by disease. The 1918 Spanish flu took over 50 million lives in a single year, a far greater toll than WW1, which took 4 years to kill only 37 million.

My theory is that warfare has changed; it has happened before during the 1400 to the 1600's and now this is it all over again,maybe there won't be a 3rd World War, but smaller and more focused skirmish on objective of mutual interest.
@Rage Racer i'd like to know what you and other russiansthink of all of this, just to try and understand what people do really think of the situations, because the medias from where i am just talks about Putin and Obama.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Putin and Abbott met overnight in Beijing as part of the APEC conference.

There were no reports of shirt-fronting (or an unconscious moron).

 

[Rage Racer]

@Rage Racer i'd like to know what you and other russiansthink of all of this, just to try and understand what people do really think of the situations, because the medias from where i am just talks about Putin and Obama.

Kinda long to explain, just read my older posts in this thread...
In general: a civil war. Brothers fighting brothers. Nation divided. One part of Ukraine fighting another, not Russia. Who's winning? No one. Civil wars have no winner. A cease-fire had been arranged, but it doesn't work.

Also, a good article: http://www.veteransnewsnow.com/2014/11/09/511447kiev-recalls-geneva-only-to-erase-minsk

Let’s first focus on the latest invasion claims. Here we go again – Russia has invaded Ukraine for the umpteenth time over recent months, reported the Western media at the weekend. At this rate of going, if it were true, then Russia must by now have armoured divisions and regiments poised at the very gates of Kiev. Maybe they are super hi-tech stealth divisions and regiments that can’t be detected by satellites or the naked eye.

The latest «incursion» reported by the BBC and Financial Times involved 32 Russian tanks and 30 trucks.

But then, on closer examination, the kerfuffle quickly vanishes when we note the source of this information – the Kiev regime. No rational person could possibly believe the claims of this inveterately lying regime – except it seems the Western media and governments, who throw all skepticism to the wind and spin faster than a tornado.

Earlier this week, Canada’s foreign minister John Baird said he had «information» that Russia’s military was amassing on Ukraine’s eastern border. Moscow immediately rebuffed the Canadian claim, and pointed to Baird’s source of «information» – the Kiev regime.

NATO’s military commander General Philip Breedlove was also once again reiterating similar claims this week that Russia was menacing Ukraine’s border. As usual, no veritable proof is provided, just the say-so of anonymous sources, which in all likelihood means Kiev. Breedlove was joined in his anti-Russian rants by US army commander in Europe, Lt General Frederick Hodges, who said that Russia was «a real threat to Europe» but quickly assured that «we will defend our allies».

This is interesting, too:

Just for good measure to drive home the invasion theme, the Financial Times headlined with this top story on Friday: ‘Tensions rise as Putin defends Soviet-Nazi pact’. The FT report was referring to a comment made by Russian President Vladimir Putin in which he apparently told history students that the 1939 non-aggression pact between the then Soviet Union and Nazi Germany was an understandable move by Moscow at that time to avoid an all-out war with the Third Reich.


Putin’s remark seemed fairly innocuous and matter of fact. But that didn’t stop the Financial Times from going into a frenzy and implying that Putin’s comment about the Molotov-Ribbentrop accord was an allusion to present-day secret plans for Russian aggression towards Europe.

It says much about the hysterical state of Western media when it latches on to the most tenuous tidbit to contrive a preordained theme of Putin as Europe’s «new Hitler».

On September 13, Lysenko told media that 2,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the conflict and some 8,000 had been wounded. No photographs, graves or death certificates produced, just the say-so of the Kiev regime.

Then on September 24, Associated Press quoted Lysenko after an apartment block was shelled in Donetsk killing two civilians, saying that: «Ukrainian detachments comply with the ceasefire regime but the terrorists continue provocations.»

This week, two teenage students were killed when their school in Donetsk was shelled. Local sources and Russian investigators say that the explosives were fired by Kiev’s National Guard under the command of its Ministry of Defence. With reflexive response, Kiev’s military officials denied any responsibility – even though such indiscriminate shelling is a hallmark of this regime’s forces.

The following day, on Thursday, two civilians were killed when a column of tanks assaulted the Donetsk suburb of Yasynuvata. The tanks were not the Russian military’s, needless to say; they were commanded from Kiev.

 

[Liquid]

@Rage Racer Could you digest articles and give them to us in sizable chunks rather than copy and pasting paragraph after paragraph after paragraph? A link is fine, but we don't need the exact whole thing here.

 

[Scaff]

That doesn't I have to say strike me as the more balanced and unbiased piece I have ever read.

Lets just take one (mild) piece:

"The latest «incursion» reported by the BBC and Financial Times involved 32 Russian tanks and 30 trucks."

And look at the reporting by the BBC:

"
A column of 32 tanks and 30 trucks has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, the Ukrainian government says.

The trucks were carrying ammunition and fighters, said a military spokesman, but the BBC cannot confirm his report."
Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29952505

So the BBC clearly state they can't confirm this.

What about the FT:

"A Russian military column has crossed the border into eastern Ukraine, according to a spokesman in Kiev, "
Source: http://www.ft.com/fastft/233122/russian-tanks-cross-ukrainian-border-reports

Well they clearly state that this is according to Kiev.

So in neither case are the BBC or FT reporting this has happened, they are reporting that Kiev claimed this happened. Quite a difference, well unless you want to present a news report as something it isn't.

Sorry but no that isn't a good article and displays more bias than the sources it claims to be biased.

 

[MisterWhiskers]

Ukraine could be federalized. Kind of like Republika Srpska and Bosnia (BiH). Then again, the Russians would probably rather just split away. But why do they need to? It's not a need, but a want.

 

[Dotini]

Germany has nixed any new sanctions. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30003449#

The focus should be on getting Ukraine though the winter in a humanitarian sense, and getting the cease fire fully implemented.

 

[Keef]

and getting the cease fire fully implemented.

The end of a war does not a cease-fire make.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Russia have agreed to form a joint army with the breakaway area of Georgia, Abkhazia.

Georgians are protesting.

 

[MisterWhiskers]

Russia have agreed to form a joint army with the breakaway area of Georgia, Abkhazia.

Georgians are protesting.

What's even the point? The population of Abkhazia is too small to make a joint army with one as big as Russia. Montenegro has a population of 600,000 which has 3,000 man army. Abkhazia is a disputed territory with a population of 250,000. Who knows? Maybe South Ossetia is next.

 

[TenEightyOne]

What's even the point? The population of Abkhazia is too small to make a joint army with one as big as Russia. Montenegro has a population of 600,000 which a 3,000 man army. Abkhazia is a disputed territory with a population of 250,000. Who knows? Maybe South Ossetia is next.

Well, that's the thing, their army has just swelled by about a million soldiers. Abkhazia is certainly disputed... between Georgia and Russia. The fear in the west is that this will be another annexation.

 

[MisterWhiskers]

Yeah, and they have reason to believe that. Russia's building up on Donetsk and now they are speculated to southern expansion. Maybe even the Baltic states. This can cause a problem in Europe, especially eastern Europe. Maybe Russia is trying to create a Soviet Union. After all, Putin was part of the KGB. We can only wait. Perhaps John Titor was right...

 

[Dotini]

Well, that's the thing, their army has just swelled by about a million soldiers. Abkhazia is certainly disputed... between Georgia and Russia. The fear in the west is that this will be another annexation.

There should be no fear in the west about whatever happens in Abkhazia.

Since the 2008 financial meltdown, the recovery has been seriously lacking - especially in Europe.

To now get involved in eastern European revolutions (Ukraine), economic sanctions against Russia, and a new cold war is unhelpful to the basic underlying predicament we are in. Unless you subscribe to the idea that we elevate ourselves by bringing ruin to those around us.

 

[TenEightyOne]

To now get involved in eastern European revolutions (Ukraine), economic sanctions against Russia, and a new cold war is unhelpful to the basic underlying predicament we are in. Unless you subscribe to the idea that we elevate ourselves by bringing ruin to those around us.

So there are more valid parts of Europe than others? I think most powers see a difference between supporting public will for change (when it genuinely exists) and military play-making. Over the last 10-or-so years Russia's actions with regard to Georgia have seemed much more the latter.

 

[Rage Racer]

Ukraine could be federalized. Kind of like Republika Srpska and Bosnia (BiH).

Of course. Russia was insisting on Ukraine's federalization from the very beginning of the unrest in April. But Ukraine declined this idea. When I ask Ukrainians (those who support their govt), "What's bad about federalization?", they can't answer anything definite. They say something like "This will ruin the country!", "We've always been a unitary state, we don't want to have borders inside the country!" (which tells they have no idea what does "federation" mean). But what really will ruin the country is the attempt of solving the conflict by force. Bombs and shells cannot unify a country.
Ukraine is repeating the mistakes of Yugoslavia. I guess you remember how it happened in Slovenia, then Croatia, and then the other parts. The SFRY government tried to keep the unity by force and you know what it resulted in.

Then again, the Russians would probably rather just split away. But why do they need to? It's not a need, but a want.

First, I'd be careful to call the Donbass population "Russians". I usually refer to them as "Russian-speaking Ukrainians" (some people populating the Russian southwest regions like Kuban', Rostov region, etc - speak with the same Ukrainian accent as those who live in east Ukraine).
Second - reuniting with Ukraine as a special status region may be a good option for the self-proclaimed Novorossia confederation (the union of the "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk) - they can't do well on their own, and Russia will not take them (Putin doesn't bother recognising Novorossia (yet), plus there are enough problems with Crimea).
But there is a problem: too much blood has been spilt. Many people of the war-torn region had their houses ruined and relatives/friends/neighbours killed by Ukrainian artillery fire, and they struggle to unite with the regime that treated them like this. "We don't want to live with those fascists!" - this is a typical answer if you ask someone from the Donetsk region about returning to Ukraine (actually, ~60% of them wouldn't care what country to live in, they just don't want to have bombs falling on their heads). Kiev had a chance to resolve the conflict peacefully in April, but they chose war instead. Imagine what would happen if Yanukovych used army on the Maidan protestors in February.

Western and Eastern Ukrainians have become different nationalities, but it doesn't mean the country should split. Just treat everyone with respect, and the country should be fine. And even Crimea could still be Ukrainian.
Also, why not to make Russian the second state language? Almost all Ukrainians are bilingual. In the most of the Western world (that Ukraine wants to feel a part of so much), languages of native minorities have official status. Even Kosovo with only 6% Serb population has Serbian as the second official language.

Russia have agreed to form a joint army with the breakaway area of Georgia, Abkhazia.

Georgians are protesting.

Abkhazia doesn't belong to Georgia anymore, this square of the chessboard is pwned by RF now (de jure, Russia recognizes its independence, but de facto, it's more like a part of RF). In August 2008, Georgia (under Saakashvili's regime) tried to regain control on South Ossetia (and then - Abkhazia) by force, but failed, and lost all hopes to get them back someday.

So, Georgian protests don't mean any more than Japanese protests about the Kuril Islands, or Ukrainian protests about Siberia's independence (haha).

What's even the point? The population of Abkhazia is too small to make a joint army with one as big as Russia. Montenegro has a population of 600,000 which has 3,000 man army. Abkhazia is a disputed territory with a population of 250,000. Who knows? Maybe South Ossetia is next.

I think it's more like an extended presence of the Russian military in the partially recognized republic.

Maybe even the Baltic states.

No. They are NATO members, so they have a solid protection. Besides, they don't even have a large pro-Russian population.

Putin was part of the KGB.

We have a saying, "There is no such thing as a former chekist*".

*Chekist - a worker for a security agency, initially Cheka, then the successors - NKVD, MGB, KGB and now FSB.

 

[Dotini]

So there are more valid parts of Europe than others? I think most powers see a difference between supporting public will for change (when it genuinely exists) and military play-making. Over the last 10-or-so years Russia's actions with regard to Georgia have seemed much more the latter.

Recent interview with Henry Kissinger.
http://www.spiegel.de/international...-on-state-of-global-politics-a-1002073-2.html

 

[Rage Racer]

Mirror: The "White Widow", Britain's most wanted terrorist Samantha Lewthwaite, was killed by a pro-Russian sniper when she was fighting in the Aidar batallion of Ukrainian National Guard. RLY?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/white-widow-1m-bounty-head-4618547
They also say the Ukrainans offer a big bounty for that sniper's head. So they have money for this, but don't have it for pensions and gas? Wow.

Also, nice paragraph in the end:

Reports of her death came amid masses of propaganda from Moscow and Kiev over the Ukrainian crisis. And counter-terrorism expert Prof Anthony Glees said the claims could be a “diversion” by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He warned: “Putin is using reports like the sighting of the White Widow to disguise the fact Russian tanks are pouring over the Ukrainian border with a view to taking Donetsk. We must not be distracted.

“Putin sees we are in disarray over the growing threat of terrorism and is trying to exploit our weakness.”

Spoiler

 

[TenEightyOne]

Recent interview with Henry Kissinger.
http://www.spiegel.de/international...-on-state-of-global-politics-a-1002073-2.html

We have the belief in America that we can change the world by not just soft power, but by actual military power. Europe doesn't have that belief.

Well, good. I do think that's one of the things in which our region differs from yours.

One has to ask one's self this question: Putin spent tens of billions of dollars on the Winter Olympics in Sochi. The theme of the Olympics was that Russia is a progressive state tied to the West through its culture and, therefore, it presumably wants to be part of it. So it doesn't make any sense that a week after the close of the Olympics, Putin would take Crimea and start a war over Ukraine. So one has to ask one's self why did it happen?

Ukraine has always had a special significance for Russia. It was a mistake not to realize that.

Well, there you go. Henry Kissinger is an enormously intelligent man - no doubt about that. Still, I rather think that the book he's selling in that interview will reflect his own incisive brand of sometimes shocking thought.

Remember he said

The emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union is not an objective of American foreign policy. And if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American concern. Maybe a humanitarian concern"

For me that comment always showed the deep flaw in Kissinger's diplomacy; absolutely everything is seen through the filter of US foreign policy. That was his main role, of course, but I'm not sure his understanings all remain relevant, particularly in modern Europe.

Mirror: The "White Widow", Britain's most wanted terrorist Samantha Lewthwaite, was killed by a pro-Russian sniper when she was fighting in the Aidar batallion of Ukrainian National Guard. RLY?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/white-widow-1m-bounty-head-4618547

They also say the Ukrainans offer a big bounty for that sniper's head. So they have money for this, but don't have it for pensions and gas? Wow.

Having a particularly dangerous sniper killed for reward (as in Serbia) isn't unusual. Getting the money might be a little more difficult.

This "news" paper is the Daily Mirror, a pretty nasty rag overall. Remember that UK papers print what they like because their sales outweigh out-of-court-settlement costs. This story looks particularly bogus, but who knows?

 

[MisterWhiskers]

Was watching a video when something caught my eye. Go to 1:04.



and the smiley face on the Russian APC gets me every time (1:05)'

 

[Rage Racer]

Was watching a video when something caught my eye. Go to 1:04.

It's the emblem of "Azov Regiment" (known earlier as "Azov Batallion") of Ukrainian National Guard, one of the "volunteer batallions" reportedly sponsored by Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoyski. Many of Azov members have far-right and neo-Nazi views, and there are foreign volunteers (mercenaries?) fighting there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

 

[Dotini]

Why has it all blown up like this? And how dangerous could it become?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30177725#

 

[Rage Racer]

and the smiley face on the Russian APC gets me every time (1:05)'

This BMP is Ukrainian. Vehicles of Ukrainian National Guard are marked with two white stripes.