Woah! Now I remembered why I stopped posting down here!
I was watching BBC News 24 earlier, getting the latest update, and it struck me that this conflict bears a striking resemblance to the Cuban missile crisis. Obviously there are no nukes involved, but as a 'stand up and be counted' moment, it is very similar. Back then, America had to stare the Russians down, and (thankfully), it worked. I think that Russia is maybe doing the same thing with the West, Nato, and (by default) America.
There are many wider issues here too. For instance, I've already mentioned oil as one reason, NATO's encroachment into former Easter bloc nations is another, and the proposed American missile defence system is yet another. Maybe Russia feels like they are on the back foot in their own back yard, I dunno?
In my mind, this conflict will not stop until Russia says so, who is going to stop them? I could imagine that Putin will have ordered his soldiers to march right up to the parliament building in Tbilisi, just because they can.
The Georgian President made a grave tactical error initiating this conflict, one that will no doubt cost him and his country dearly. Not just in lives, but also in standing on the world stage, and it must also surely put their entry into both NATO and the EU in very serious doubt.
Stevisiov
Have you ever thought about a career in journalism?
Interesting read.
Thanks pal. 👍 I haven't really got the patience or determination to do journalism, but every now and then something will catch my imagination, and I will have a crack at it.
Danoff
I'm not entirely familiar with the scenario that has started the Georgia/Russia conflict, but Israel's response to repeated kidnapping and attacks on civilians seemed reasonable to me. Has Georgia or Russia done something similar to Lebanon causing you to make this comparison?
It is possible to have a right to attack a sovereign state. Repeated and blatant treaty violations, especially cease fire treaty violations, come to mind as one such example.
From what I've been reading, Georgia has reneged on a previous agreement of non-aggression that dated back to 1992. I'd say that is good enough grounds. You also have to ask yourself, when is enough enough? Israel (and the rest of the world) have obviously shown more restraint than Russia, but when enough is enough, its enough I guess.
South Ossetia (wikipedia article)
In 1992, Georgia was forced to accept a ceasefire to avoid a large scale confrontation with Russia. The government of Georgia and South Ossetian separatists reached an agreement to avoid the use of force against one another, and Georgia pledged not to impose sanctions against South Ossetia. However, the Georgian government still retains control over substantial portions of South Ossetia, including the town of Akhalgori.[22] A peacekeeping force of Ossetians, Russians and Georgians was established. On November 6, 1992, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) set up a Mission in Georgia to monitor the peacekeeping operation. From then, until mid-2004 South Ossetia was generally peaceful.
Danoff
What was the justification for war in this case? I have not heard a good explanation. So far the evidence I've heard (and there is little) makes me think that it's just a straight forward land grab.
To figure that one out, you'd have to ask the Georgian President! Georgia were the aggressors in this case, Russia merely responded. Some might say cynically, because they offered every South Ossetian a Russian passport, so in effect Russia was acting in defence of its own people. Of course Russia never really acts out of benevolence (come to think of it,when does any nation?). Some of the points I mentioned earlier could be good enough reason.
@YSSMAN: I agree totally with everything you say pal. 👍
YSSMAN
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the involvement with the OSCE would bring in other member states, correct? Sadly, my understanding of this organization is very limited...
I don't know too much about the OSCE either, but I doubt they are going to jump into anything serious, why would they?
Toronado
I'm not so sure on that. There is a long tradition of hate between China and Russia, especially since China became Communist.
You may be right there, I was merely making an assumption based on how Russia and China have mostly 'Vetoed' or blocked Americas actions at the UN. Besides, you have to remember that George Bush publicly denounced China on the eve of the Olympic opening ceremony.
China and America may be on better terms, but I'm sure there is going to have to be some sweet talking to get them to stand up and say something against Russia. My bet is that they will keep quiet.