Scottish Independence

[Tired Tyres]

The EU will always permit a new country to enter provided it fulfils the criteria... there’s no way Spain or France or anyone else would or could block an independent Scotland from joining the EU... the EU would and could make life very hard for a blocking member state.

That said, it would entirely depend on the way in which Scottish independence was achieved. If Scotland/SNP goes down the same route as Catalonia (i.e. an illegal referendum), then the EU will not touch Scotland with a ten foot pole. Ironically, Spain would probably agree to Scotland joining the EU if there was a legal referendum on the matter - it is not Scottish independence that they are opposed to, it is the way in which independence is sought.

The concept that Spain would cause itself so much internal harm by voting for a separatist nation is the issue. It will not happen. It requires all member states to vote to allow membership.

 

[Touring Mars]

The concept that Spain would cause itself so much internal harm by voting for a separatist nation is the issue. It will not happen. It requires all member states to vote to allow membership.

As a staunch opponent of Scottish independence, I would really like to believe that...

...but, I would not be at all surprised if Spain's resolve was overwhelmed by the EU's considerable power.

 

[Tired Tyres]

As a staunch opponent of Scottish independence, I would really like to believe that...

...but, I would not be at all surprised if Spain's resolve was overwhelmed by the EU's considerable power.

Which is shortly going to be in all sorts of let's stick together issues....

Anyway, the moment new labour created the Scottish Assembly they guaranteed independence would become an inevitability at some point. You can't give a little bit of independence and then not have people wanting more.

 

[baldgye]

Anyway, the moment new labour created the Scottish Assembly they guaranteed independence would become an inevitability at some point. You can't give a little bit of independence and then not have people wanting more.

I don't think that's really true, the bigger problem is the the same one England has, in regards to anti X sentiment being pushed for decades. It's very easy to match English media disdain and hate of the EU to the Scots and their dislike of England.

We're at the apex of hate media.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Which is shortly going to be in all sorts of let's stick together issues....

Anyway, the moment new labour created the Scottish Assembly they guaranteed independence would become an inevitability at some point. You can't give a little bit of independence and then not have people wanting more.

It sounds as if you're against countries having their own parliaments. Do you feel the same way about the Welsh Assembly, or about the (unoccupied) framework of the Northern Irish Assembly?

 

[Tired Tyres]

It sounds as if you're against countries having their own parliaments. Do you feel the same way about the Welsh Assembly, or about the (unoccupied) framework of the Northern Irish Assembly?

I'm not opposed to it at all. In any way at all. I'm pointing out the inevitable consequence of it.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Bozza has formally put the Scots in their place and said no giving them the power to hold indyref2...

Clearly him making the decision is more democratic than letting the Scottish voters decide... Bozza knows best!

 

[baldgye]

Bozza has formally put the Scots in their place and said no giving them the power to hold indyref2...

Clearly him making the decision is more democratic than letting the Scottish voters decide... Bozza knows best!

No way Boris wrote that! haha I've read his columns before and he's never normally so coherent and sharp with his writing

 

[MaxAttack]

Bozza has formally put the Scots in their place and said no giving them the power to hold indyref2...

Clearly him making the decision is more democratic than letting the Scottish voters decide... Bozza knows best!

Now, I'm not an expert, but that is not good handwriting.

That looks like the signature of a man steadily vibrating quicker and quicker as his latest Columbian nostril boulder enters his bloodstream.

I can imagine him squinting at the letter in his lightly sugared hands, struggling to make out the squiggle on the paper amongst the harried buzzing of his vision. He thinks about asking his aide whether it's "clear enough" but his face is too numb to form the words and, with a slight air of embarrassment, he posts the thing quietly.

With the job done, he settles in for the night, sending off a quick text to Shady Jason to meet him on the corner at 2 for a top up.

 

[Liquid]

There is also a parliamentary bill that sets out that, for all future constitutional referenda:

- Turnout must be 55%
- A supermajority of 60% is required for any referendum to pass

Never mind the obvious 52-48 Brexit farce, pasting over a crooked vote to seal in our fates, the most crucial part to this bill is:

- 2/3rds of all MPs must approve the referendum before it is held

Number of MPs: 650
2/3rds of 650: 429
Number of English MPs: 533

You literally cannot change anything constitutionally without England's permission.

This doesn't just affect a second Scottish independence referendum. This leaves Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland unable to set their own destiny without England's approval. It leaves all of us unable to address the imbalance of the so-called "union". It never has been a union of equals and this only spells it out further.

 

[Tired Tyres]

There is also a parliamentary bill that sets out that, for all future constitutional referenda:

- Turnout must be 75%
- A supermajority of 60% is required for any referendum to pass

Never mind the obvious 52-48 Brexit farce, pasting over a crooked vote to seal in our fates, the most crucial part to this bill is:

- 2/3rds of all MPs must approve the referendum before it is held

Number of MPs: 650
2/3rds of 650: 429
Number of English MPs: 533

You literally cannot change anything constitutionally without England's permission.

This doesn't just affect a second Scottish independence referendum. This leaves Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland unable to set their own destiny without England's approval. It leaves all of us unable to address the imbalance of the so-called "union". It never has been a union of equals and this only spells it out further.

More acceptable.

 

[MatskiMonk]

No way Boris wrote that! haha I've read his columns before and he's never normally so coherent and sharp with his writing

It does register on the talking bollocks spectrum though, so it could have been penned by Johnson himself.

Now, I'm not an expert, but that is not good handwriting.

That looks like the signature of a man steadily vibrating quicker and quicker as his latest Columbian nostril boulder enters his bloodstream.

If you had to match the handwriting to the politician...

.. I think it fits quite well!


Anyhow, I'm neither for nor against Scottish independence, but if I were Scottish I'd probably be angry about this. Scotland didn't vote for Johnson, and they didn't vote to leave the EU. "We" are taking them out of a union they want to remain in, and denying them a vote on leaving one they potentially don't want to be in. Can you imagine if the EU had attempted to remove our power to have a vote on our EU membership.

 

[baldgye]

It does register on the talking bollocks spectrum though, so it could have been penned by Johnson himself.

Well, it isn’t. A once in a generation referendum was allowed by Cameron. But the jibes after that seem far to subtle for something Boris could have even thought

 

[Liquid]

More acceptable.

I might have even under-reported the turnout figure. Turnout is something I can at least have a debate over for validity.

But the other two facets are completely wrong.

 

[TheCracker]

- Turnout must be 75%

More acceptable.

Brexit turnout was 72% and the last general election was 67%. The bar doesn't need to be as high as that.

 

[MaxAttack]

Oh, he's a definite cokehead. He at least knows the taste. Unfortunately I've known so many (from startlingly broad walks of life) that the signs are obvious.

I honestly believe you're never more than two steps away from a major cokehead. It remains the rich man's drug. Council halls the country over are dusted in a fine layer of the stuff. Disgusts me.

Hard to know where to stand on a second referendum from where I sit - but I'll always support the will of the Scottish people regardless what they think of the English. Without Scottish infantry, we'd have all been buggered long ago.

I'd like to see a world where the union can survive despite its horrible origins and how England-first it was for many decades, but given our choice of leaders over the last few I can see why you'd want to get out while you can.

I mean, the whole "If you wanted your independence, you shouldn't have banked everything on starting a South American colony nation in the middle of an uninhabitable swamp of death" argument has sort of lost its strength down the centuries, don't you think?

 

[baldgye]

- A supermajority of 60% is required for any referendum to pass

Never mind the obvious 52-48 Brexit farce, pasting over a crooked vote to seal in our fates, the most crucial part to this bill is

This is the usual good working practice that Referendums work under... it was only because Cameron was so confident in Remain winning that he didn't put this limitation on Brexit's referendum...


I find the results of the 2014 referendum really interesting;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

I would have though that younger voters would have gone for leaving the UK, but they where pretty split. Though I still think it was wrong to allow 16 year olds to vote, the result is surprising.

 

[TVR27]

A New Scottish Independence Vote Seems All but Inevitable

With increasing support from voters, the Scottish National Party is unlikely to give up its fight for a second referendum despite the procedural obstacles it faces.

 

[daan]

A New Scottish Independence Vote Seems All but Inevitable

With increasing support from voters, the Scottish National Party is unlikely to give up its fight for a second referendum despite the procedural obstacles it faces.

Has your account been compromised? It seems to be spamming numerous threads with headlines, and the first paragraph, copied and pasted from a random website with no contribution from you.

 

[TVR27]

Has your account been compromised? It seems to be spamming numerous threads with headlines, and the first paragraph, copied and pasted from a random website with no contribution from you.

Ok I will stop posting this kind of stuff and remember to contribute next sorry didn't mean to spam.

 

[mustafur]

I think it's naive to think just because Scotland favoured remain they favour independence, if Independence means joining the EU and putting up a hard border with England that is a very different question.

 

[Tired Tyres]

I think it's naive to think just because Scotland favoured remain they favour independence, if Independence means joining the EU and putting up a hard border with England that is a very different question.

Never underestimate the capacity of people to vote for something that isn't in their actual best interest....

 

[MatskiMonk]

I think it's naive to think just because Scotland favoured remain they favour independence, if Independence means joining the EU and putting up a hard border with England that is a very different question.

The original indyref result was 55.3% vs 44.7% in favour of remaining in the union. In the EU referendum it was 62% to 38% in favour of remaining. However, the turnout for the brexit ref was 17% lower than indyref.... approximately 1.6m people voted for an independent Scotland and to remain in the EU. Assuming they'd prioritise the things the same way now, and all voted the same way again, I don't see them get a majority of an electorate of 4.2m people for this scenario given EU membership would not be as it is now and neither would relations with the remainder of the UK.

... but I absolutely believe they should get to vote on it in an advisory referendum, and it's massively hypocritical of parliament and the PM to deny them this.

 

[baldgye]

The original indyref result was 55.3% vs 44.7% in favour of remaining in the union. In the EU referendum it was 62% to 38% in favour of remaining. However, the turnout for the brexit ref was 17% lower than indyref.... approximately 1.6m people voted for an independent Scotland and to remain in the EU. Assuming they'd prioritise the things the same way now, and all voted the same way again, I don't see them get a majority of an electorate of 4.2m people for this scenario given EU membership would not be as it is now and neither would relations with the remainder of the UK.

... but I absolutely believe they should get to vote on it in an advisory referendum, and it's massively hypocritical of parliament and the PM to deny them this.

I think it's worth noting that in the Scottish Referendum, 16 and 17 year olds where allowed to vote. For the EU Referendum vote only over 18 year olds could vote. I think it was around 100,000 under 18s voted(?), three quarters of which wanted Scotland to be Independent (according to a survey commissioned by Lord Ashcroft).

Maybe not a huge impact, but worth mentioning. If the newer generations on average want Scotland to be a separate nation, Brexit could help push that divide between England and Scotland as Boomers age out.

 

[MatskiMonk]

@baldgye true. My feeling is that it wouldn't happen for exactly the reason they should get a vote on it. So much has changed since the last one... whether that's something younger voters would recognise I don't know. I'm very much a remain-in-the-EU voter, but I'm waaaay less sure if I'd vote to try and get back into the EU at a later date, and I think that might be the case with the Scots too... independence now doesn't look the same as independence did then. Having said that, you are right.. Brexit is such a divide, I'd be massively ****ed off with the English if I were a Scot, maybe even ****ed off enough to still want independence.

 

[Touring Mars]

As Brexit has now happened, the push for Scottish independence will really start to pick up steam.

The referendum on Scottish independence ("indyref") held in 2014 yielded a 55% - 45% result in favour of remaining a part of the UK.

Since then, however, the UK voted in 2016 52% - 48% to leave the EU, while Scottish voters rejected the idea of leaving the EU by a much wider margin, 62% - 38%, but Scotland is just 1/9th of the UK...

The two votes are inextricably linked. One of the most persuasive arguments in the 2014 indyref was that Scotland was risking its precious EU membership by entertaining the idea of leaving the UK. Of course, this was never tested because indyref delivered a NO vote and hence Scotland's EU status remained unchallenged.

Now that risk has vanished, and with it a key and strong argument against independence has been removed. As such, a new indyref is, IMO, very likely to result in a Yes/Leave vote next time around.

Indeed, the whole question of EU membership is a trump card that has now changed hands completely. Ironically, it is the Scottish nationalists who are now able to say that EU membership can only be obtained by voting for their cause (... notwithstanding the fact that they seemed quite happy to jeopardise the very same thing just a few years ago... (and also notwithstanding the tricky question of the inherent inconsistency of arguing in favour of repatriating sovereign powers from the UK Government while also arguing in favour of ceding sovereign powers to the EU, but I digress...))

The trouble is, however, that for those of us unfortunate enough to have participated in both referenda, the parallels are both obvious and alarming. People who warn of the negative consequences of the fundamental change sought by the 'leave' camp(s) are dismissed out of hand as 'Project Fear'.

Ironically, the SNP and supporters of Scottish independence can and will point to the omnishambles that is Brexit and use it to make the case for why Scotland cannot be ruled from London any longer, even though Scottish independence may well end up reproducing many of the same outcomes as Brexit. The worse Brexit is, the more likely Scottish independence becomes... which will be very unfortunate indeed if Scexit ends up taking us down the same path as Brexit.

 

[Daz555]

I wish Scotland well in their search for independence (if they decide to go that way). But wowzers when it does happen it is going to be a crapshow that makes Brexit look like a breeze.

It will be very tempting for many English and Welsh to move to Scotland ahead of any exit to secure Scottish and eventual EU citizenship again.

 

[Touring Mars]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-61956472

Another independence vote.

This is the key bit...

"Ms Sturgeon says she hopes proposing a referendum that is consultative and not self-executing will be deemed legal."

Which, according to the current Government, is still a democratic mandate, the will of the people, and must be delivered for the sake of democracy. I don't particularly want Scotland to leave, but the irony of how it plays out could be delicious. Having said that, a reduced UK house of commons, with the loss of the SNP, would reduce the opposition to a Tory government.

I think they will vote to leave. And it could rarely be at a worse time. The economy is in a mess as it is and you wonder how it will cope with the shock of a leave vote and then with the separation itself. The complexities of the Scottish Union with the rest of the UK will make Brexit look like a walk in the park. Staggering to think than in just a few short years our nation will likely be torn in two and there will be a border between England and Scotland. Then there is the issue of the nuclear submarines and the importance of Scottish waters to the defence of the North Atlantic.

It's going to cost countless billions and leave everyone in the UK poorer. Still - democracy and all that. It is what it is.

It would appear I'm going to be someone who was born British, grew up European, and will die English.

I'm very conflicted by the prospect of another referendum, and I could write several essays on the subject but will try to keep it brief.

In summary:

(Disclosure: I was firmly against Scottish Independence in 2014, and very firmly against Brexit in 2016)

1) Brexit absolutely makes the case for a new Scottish independence referendum - though ironically, it also shows how much of a bad idea it could be.

2) EU membership is a fundamental issue, but it is not clear that EU membership would be possible for Scotland until long after it became a sovereign state.

3) The SNP must make it absolutely clear prior to the vote what interim arrangements with the EU are possible, i.e. Single Market access. Northern Ireland proves that it is possible for a part of the UK to stay inside the UK, but this is massively problematic and involves a de facto hard border.

4) Independence was already a hard sell (IndyRef1 failed 55-45%) but it is arguably now even harder - there is a fundamental problem; the "best case scenario" for Scotland - unfettered access to both the EU Single Market and the UK internal market, that we had up until 2016 - is now gone and everything else will be inferior to that. It is now one or the other, but another possibility looms - neither...

5) ...Scotland can ill-afford to be out of both the EU Single Market AND the UK's internal market; but this is the default scenario and it is unclear how long an independent Scotland might face being in this situation.

-

I am still opposed to Scottish independence for multiple reasons, but I am still open to persuasion. However, if the last IndyRef was anything to go by, there was very little actual reasoned debate, and plenty of parallels to the Brexit referendum - opponents of Scottish independence were routinely ridiculed and labeled as 'Project Fear' (sound familiar?), and the pro-independence side were keen to portray themselves as 'progressive', 'optimistic', 'positive' (it helped having 'YES' as their slogan/vote choice too); but when it came to answering key questions, they were incredibly light on detail - stating that the UK and/or the EU 'need' Scotland and hence will cut us some slack in future negotiations is about as realistic as Brexiteers claiming that the EU need us more than we need them. Hand-waving, wishful thinking and wild optimism has got Brexiteers absolutely nowhere, and to quote Nicola Sturgeon, why would it be any different for Scotland?

Sadly, I think Brexit has changed everything and a vote to leave the UK is now all but inevitable. And I can't blame anyone for changing their minds given that a key reason to vote No in 2014 was retaining EU membership. However, it is shocking to me how few Scottish nationalists appear to appreciate the value of access to the UK while apparently losing access to the EU is 'robbing our children of opportunities'; I'm struggling to think of a single school or Uni pal who's first job outside of Scotland was in an EU state, while most of my friends and family got our first job outside of Scotland somewhere else in the UK. Making that harder for Scottish graduates is a bigger threat to Scottish prosperity than leaving the EU by some distance.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I think they will vote to leave

I would say that I'm not so sure, but I never thought we'd get a majority of the turnout vote for Brexit either.

Scotland has twice voted to remain in a union, and though I can understand wanting to rid themselves of the British government, I think a lot of Scots will see the country as being poorer or worse off on their own. Just my two cents, but the SNP have to get something they can paint as a positive promise from the EU before the vote, but based on what the EU said about negotiation prior to Article 50, I think Sturgeon will struggle to get anything she can tangibly campaign on.

If it's successful, good luck to the Scots it might jump up a few rungs on the list of places I'd emigrate to...

... and then let's wait for an Irish reunification vote.

 

[PeterJB]

I'm not Scottish so I don't have a dog in this fight, but even so, referendums are typically supposed to be rare occurrences due to the significance they carry; but obviously Scotland's, and the entire nation's prospects have changed quite dramatically since the last one, and since the SNP's whole mantra is independence they're obviously gonna keep bringing this up until they get what they want.

Even if independence was feasible (and I'm not necessarily convinced it is), I can see people who support it on principle voting against it based on how much the UK has torn its hair out over Brexit; both regarding the social divisions and just the legal, political, and legislative logistics of doing so. This is a whole different kettle of fish from just leaving the EU, particularly if the intentions are to then negotiate your way back into it once you've sorted everything domestically.

The pandemic in many respects did give a teaser of what independence would be like, as during lockdown Scotland was effectively functioning as a separate nation with the borders closed and their own restrictions in place. If this did go ahead, it would take years before everything is resolved and the country is actually functionally independent, and in the mean time a lot of people who voted against it would probably end up migrating south, or it would get so bad that it collapses into civil war and we get a North Scotland/South Scotland situation.

There will obviously be ramifications for the rest of the country, such a losing all the SNP seats in Westminster, which I can't imagine the Opposition parties will be particularly appreciative of, but at the end of the day, it's not about us, and if Scotland votes to leave, that vote should be honoured, and good luck to them.