One question I have,
@Touring Mars .. if we did get another [Brexit] extension, what would the chances of a) Scotland
getting Indyref2, and b) Voting
for it, and c) is it thought this would leave them in the EU by default, or would they have to apply?
I think the chances of another Scottish independence referendum (Indyref 2) are extremely high unless the UK either remains in the EU or agrees a deal that keeps us in the Single Market and Customs Union (soft Brexit). Like the last time, I believe the UK Government would have little choice but to agree to a referendum eventually.
The chances of Scotland voting for independence in a second referendum, however, is less clear. It would depend largely on what the rationale for holding another referendum was - and the only reason there is any talk of another one so soon after the last one is because of the possibility of Scotland losing its EU membership. Should that not transpire, there is (IMO) not only no chance of Scotland voting in favour of independence, there is also no rationale for even holding another vote.
As for an independent Scotland's possible future EU membership, I can't see any other circumstance other than Scotland having to apply as a sovereign state. Scotland, by virtue of already being in the EU, would have a flying start in meeting the 'Copenhagen criteria' (for EU membership), but it would remain necessary for a full assessment to be done on whether Scotland meets them all, esp. economically. That said, I have no doubt that the EU (and all remaining EU27 member states) would bend over backwards to accept Scotland into the fold, even if it had to bend a few rules...
But I reckon this issue is comparatively small beer compared to the real problem with Scotland's possible EU membership - and it basically boils down to Scotland's future relationship with the remainder of the UK (rUK). The whole situation would be like Brexit in reverse, but an order of magnitude more complicated. Just as the UK is having a hard time leaving because it's future relationship with the EU is uncertain, a similar thing would apply in reverse to Scotland wanting to join the EU.
The EU would require a hard border between Scotland and England for a start - while many nationalists (on both sides of the border) might welcome such an idea, that alone would spell economic trouble for Scotland... not least because England is a land bridge between Scotland and mainland Europe. Politically it would be dynamite as well. The point is, however, that this (and many other things, like agreeing Scotland's share of the national debt, carving up the NHS, North Sea oil, the army, the National Grid etc. etc.) would have to be agreed with the UK in advance of Scotland joining the EU, because otherwise it will not be possible to assess whether Scotland meets the criteria for EU membership, or whether it will be able to protect the integrity of the EU single market.
If Scotland were allowed into the EU prior to finalising its 'Scexit' terms with the UK, then Scotland would 'crash out' of the newly-established UK internal Single Market (which is worth 4 times more in terms of trade than the EU Single Market) and then face trading with rUK with huge tariffs (in the event of a No Deal exit and no existing trade deal with the EU). This would, in all likelihood, cripple the Scottish economy. The question would then be, why would the EU allow Scotland into the fold knowing that Scotland could become the next Greece? And, if a tariff-free trade deal between the UK and EU does (somehow) emerge that keeps things pretty much as they are today, then why would Scotland need to leave the UK at all?
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I personally believe that the parallels between SNP supporters and hard Brexiteers are far stronger than most supporters of Scottish independence would care to admit. Indeed, the parallels between 'Scexit' and 'Brexit' are (IMO anyway) obvious - opponents who raise concerns or point out inconvenient facts that will make the process far harder in reality are simply labelled as 'Project Fear'.
Paradoxically, Scottish nationalists seem to view the prospect of a disastrous Brexit as the ultimate justification for Scexit, while the rest of us see it as the exact opposite.
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