Solar Plasma Aurora To Affect Earth?

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we learned about this stuff in physics class and how the magnetic field is weakening. They believe its weakening because its gonna flip. so north would b sout and south would be north. Its happened before and they say we are overdue forone. i'm not sure this has anything to do with that though.
 
nothing here in northampton

To be honest, it'd have to be pretty spectacular to reach England - we're on the very edge of what could be expected where we live, so Northampton is pushing it.

PJ-FFL - None.

Bardwell - I covered that in our "Apocalypse" thread. It's not really true, but then a lot of what is taught in school science lessons is like that.
 
Here's a brief clip showing the Coronal Mass Ejection... ~ 6 hours of activity squeezed into 3 seconds!



I waited up last night to see if I could spot any of the aurora, but despite the fact that it was a reasonably clear night, I didn't see anything :indiff: I have only seen the Aurora Borealis once, slightly further north than I am now, in St. Andrew's, Scotland...
 
We didn't get anything on any night from 2nd through to 5th - and we're out every night with the dogs and an almost unobstructed northerly view (our beach faces north).

I went to Iceland in 2007 to see some aurorae. And didn't, because it was the worst weather "sinsh, like, forever" in Iceland.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/opinion/16joseph.html?ref=opinion
The Sun Also Surprises
By LAWRENCE E. JOSEPH
Published: August 15, 2010
Los Angeles

DESPITE warnings that New Orleans was unprepared for a severe hit by a hurricane, America was blindsided by Hurricane Katrina, a once-in-a-lifetime storm that made landfall five years ago this month. We are similarly unready for another potential natural disaster: solar storms, bursts of gas on the sun’s surface that release tremendous energy pulses.

Occasionally, a large solar storm can rain energy down on the earth, overpowering electrical grids. About once a century, a giant pulse can knock out worldwide power systems for months or even years. It’s been 90 years since the last super storm, but scientists say we are on the verge of another period of high solar activity.

This isn’t science fiction. Though less frequent than large hurricanes, significant storms have hit earth several times over the last 150 years, most notably in 1859 and 1921. Those occurred before the development of the modern power grid; recovering from a storm that size today would cost up to $2 trillion a year for several years.

Storms don’t have to be big to do damage. In March 1989 two smaller solar blasts shut down most of the grid in Quebec, leaving millions of customers without power for nine hours. Another storm, in 2003, caused a blackout in Sweden and fried 14 high-voltage transformers in South Africa.

The South African experience was particularly telling — the storm was relatively weak, but by damaging transformers it put parts of the country off-line for months. That’s because high-voltage transformers, which handle enormous amounts of electricity, are the most sensitive part of a grid; a strong electromagnetic pulse can easily fuse their copper wiring, damaging them beyond repair.

Even worse, transformers are hard to replace. They weigh up to 100 tons, so they can’t be easily moved from the factories in Europe and Asia where most of them are made; right now, there’s already a three-year waiting list for new ones.

Without aggressive preparation, we run the risk of a disaster magnitudes greater than Hurricane Katrina. Little or no electricity means little or no telecommunications, refrigeration, clean water or fuel. Basic law enforcement and national security could be compromised.

Fortunately, there are several defenses against solar storms. The most important are grid-level surge suppressors, which are essentially giant versions of the devices we use at home to protect computers. There are some 5,000 vulnerable transformers in North America; at $50,000 for each suppressor, we could protect the grid for about $250 million.

Earlier this year the House of Representatives passed a bill that would allow the White House to require utilities to put grid-protection measures in place, then recoup the costs from customers. Unfortunately, the companion bill in the Senate contains no such provision.

It’s not a lost cause, though; lawmakers can still insert the grid-protection language during conference. If they don’t, there could be trouble soon: the next period of heavy solar activity will be in late 2012. Having gone unprepared for one recent natural disaster, we would make a grave mistake not to get ready for the next.

Lawrence E. Joseph is the author of “Aftermath: A Guide to Preparing for and Surviving Apocalypse 2012.”
 
"Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of 1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers."

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/

To the best of my knowledge, electrical transformers are no longer manufactured in the US. Somebody please tell me I'm wrong.

Respectfully submitted,
Dotini
 
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http://spaceweather.com/


GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 3rd when a coronal mass ejection is due to hit Earth's magnetic field. A solar wind stream following close behind the CME could extend the action into Feb. 4th and 5th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 3rd or (more likely) the 4th. Credit: SDO/AIA.
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2011 Feb 02 2200 UTC

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2011 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes

24-48 hr
ACTIVE
35 %
 
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http://www.salem-news.com/articles/february042011/global-superstorms-ta.php
Magnetic Polar Shifts Causing Massive Global Superstorms
Terrence Aym Salem-News.com

Superstorms can also cause certain societies, cultures or whole countries to collapse. Others may go to war with each other.

(CHICAGO) - NASA has been warning about it…scientific papers have been written about it…geologists have seen its traces in rock strata and ice core samples…

Now "it" is here: an unstoppable magnetic pole shift that has sped up and is causing life-threatening havoc with the world's weather.

Forget about global warming—man-made or natural—what drives planetary weather patterns is the climate and what drives the climate is the sun's magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet's own magnetic field.

When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.

Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth's history. It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

The magnetic field drives weather to a significant degree and when that field starts migrating superstorms start erupting.

The superstorms have arrived

The first evidence we have that the dangerous superstorm cycle has started is the devastating series of storms that pounded the UK during late 2010.

On the heels of the lashing the British Isles sustained, monster storms began to lash North America. The latest superstorm—as of this writing—is a monster over the U.S. that stretched across 2,000 miles affecting more than 150 million people.

Yet even as that storm wreaked havoc across the Western, Southern, Midwestern and Northeastern states, another superstorm broke out in the Pacific and closed in on Australia.

The southern continent had already dealt with the disaster of historic superstorm flooding from rains that dropped as much as several feet in a matter of hours. Tens of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed. After the deluge tiger sharks were spotted swimming between houses in what was once a quiet suburban neighborhood.

Shocked authorities now numbly concede that much of the water may never dissipate and have wearily resigned themselves to the possibility that region will now contain a new inland sea.

But then only a handful of weeks later another superstorm—the megamonster cyclone Yasi—struck northeastern Australia. The damage it left in its wake is being called by rescue workers a war zone.

The incredible superstorm packed winds near 190mph. Although labeled as a category-5 cyclone, it was theoretically a category-6. The reason for that is storms with winds of 155mph are considered category-5, yet Yasi was almost 22 percent stronger than that.

Yet Yasi may only be a foretaste of future superstorms. Some climate researchers, monitoring the rapidly shifting magnetic field, are predicting superstorms in the future with winds as high as 300 to 400mph.

Such storms would totally destroy anything they came into contact with on land.

The possibility more storms like Yasi or worse will wreak havoc on our civilization and resources is found in the complicated electromagnetic relationship between the sun and Earth. The synergistic tug-of-war has been compared by some to an intricately constructed cat's cradle. And it's in a constant state of flux.

The sun's dynamic, ever-changing electric magnetosphere interfaces with the Earth's own magnetic field affecting, to a degree, the Earth's rotation, precessional wobble, dynamics of the planet's core, its ocean currents and—above all else—the weather.

Cracks in Earth's Magnetic Shield

The Earth's northern magnetic pole was moving towards Russia at a rate of about five miles annually. That progression to the East had been happening for decades.

Suddenly, in the past decade the rate sped up. Now the magnetic pole is shifting East at a rate of 40 miles annually, an increase of 800 percent. And it continues to accelerate.

Recently, as the magnetic field fluctuates, NASA has discovered "cracks" in it. This is worrisome as it significantly affects the ionosphere, troposphere wind patterns, and atmospheric moisture. All three things have an effect on the weather.

Worse, what shields the planet from cancer-causing radiation is the magnetic field. It acts as a shield deflecting harmful ultra-violet, X-rays and other life-threatening radiation from bathing the surface of the Earth. With the field weakening and cracks emerging, the death rate from cancer could skyrocket and mutations of DNA can become rampant.

Another federal agency, NOAA, issued a report caused a flurry of panic when they predicted that mammoth superstorms in the future could wipe out most of California. The NOAA scientists said it's a plausible scenario and would be driven by an "atmospheric river" moving water at the same rate as 50 Mississippi rivers flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

Magnetic field may dip, flip and disappear

The Economist wrote a detailed article about the magnetic field and what's happening to it. In the article they noted:

"There is, however, a growing body of evidence that the Earth's magnetic field is about to disappear, at least for a while. The geological record shows that it flips from time to time, with the south pole becoming the north, and vice versa. On average, such reversals take place every 500,000 years, but there is no discernible pattern. Flips have happened as close together as 50,000 years, though the last one was 780,000 years ago. But, as discussed at the Greenland Space Science Symposium, held in Kangerlussuaq this week, the signs are that another flip is coming soon."

Discussing the magnetic polar shift and the impact on weather, the scholarly paper "Weather and the Earth's magnetic field" was published in the journal Nature. Scientists too are very concerned about the increasing danger of superstorms and the impact on humanity.

Superstorms will not only damage agriculture across the planet leading to famines and mass starvation, they will also change coastlines, destroy cities and create tens of millions of homeless.

Superstorms can also cause certain societies, cultures or whole countries to collapse. Others may go to war with each other.

A Danish study published in the scientific journal Geology, found strong correlation between climate change, weather patterns and the magnetic field.

"The earth's climate has been significantly affected by the planet's magnetic field, according to a Danish study published Monday that could challenge the notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming.

"'Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of the earth's magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics,' one of the two Danish geophysicists behind the study, Mads Faurschou Knudsen of the geology department at Aarhus University in western Denmark, told the Videnskab journal.

"He and his colleague Peter Riisager, of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), compared a reconstruction of the prehistoric magnetic field 5,000 years ago based on data drawn from stalagmites and stalactites found in China and Oman."

In the scientific paper "Midday magnetopause shifts earthward of geosynchronous orbit during geomagnetic superstorms with Dst = -300 nT" the magnetic intensity of solar storms impacting Earth can intensify the effects of the polar shift and also speed up the frequency of the emerging superstorms.


Pole reversal may also be initiating new Ice Age

According to some geologists and scientists, we have left the last interglacial period behind us. Those periods are lengths of time—about 11,500 years—between major Ice Ages.

One of the most stunning signs of the approaching Ice Age is what's happened to the world's precessional wobble.

The Earth's wobble has stopped

As explained in the geology and space science website earthchangesmedia.com, "The Chandler wobble was first discovered back in 1891 by Seth Carlo Chandler an American astronomer.

The effect causes the Earth's poles to move in an irregular circle of 3 to 15 meters in diameter in an oscillation. The Earth's Wobble has a 7-year cycle which produces two extremes, a small spiraling wobble circle and a large spiraling wobble circle, about 3.5 years apart.

For the conclusion of this article, visit: helium.com

Also, as a response to comments, Terrence added this:

2002 - Scientists may have detected the beginning of the field's next such reversal:
[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=satellites-spy-changes-to]

2005 - Movement of North Magnetic Pole is accelerating:
[http://www.physorg.com/news8917.html]

2008 - Earth's Core, Magnetic Field Changing Fast, Study Says
[http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080630-earth-core.html]

2008 - Magnetic Portals Connect Earth to Sun
[http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30oct_ftes/]

2009 - North Magnetic Pole Moving Due to Core Flux
[http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html]

2009 - The earth's climate is significantly affected by the planet's magnetic field:
[http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_earths_magnetic_field_impacts_climate_Danish_study_999.html]

Jan 2011 - British Geological Survey *Possible Pole Shift Occurring* South Atlantic Anomaly is Growing:
[http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/highlights/southAtlantic2010.html]

2009 - A strong, highly-tilted interstellar magnetic field near the Solar System:
[http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7276/full/nature08567.html]

2009 - The solar system is passing through an interstellar cloud that physics says should not exist:
[http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/23dec_voyager/]
 
http://www.kva-engineering.com/solar.php

Here is an interesting photo of transformer at the Salem nuclear power plant burned up due to an electrical discharge from the Sun in 1989. An even worse solar storm, the Carrington Event, occurred in 1859, and caused fires in telegraph offices all over the US and Europe.

"A 1921 event wiped out telegraph service east of the Mississippi. The currents induced in some telegraph wires were so strong that numerous fires were caused and several operators were injured by exploding consoles. Radio reception was completely lost in New Zealand, but was strengthened in Europe. Auroras were seen as far south as Puerto Rico".
 
I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous even by your usual standards. The sensationalised gibberish and flat-out falsehoods in that article are worthy of the Daily Sport (who once published an article about a London bus being found on the Moon).

Trying to pick my way through that tripe would be a fool's errand, but I'll give it a whirl. Hold my long weight for me...


Forget about global warming—man-made or natural—what drives planetary weather patterns is the climate...

Let's give "global warming" its current name. "Climate change". Oh, right.

and what drives the climate is the sun's magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet's own magnetic field.

Oooh, natural climate change. So we must forget about it at the start of an article discussing it. Oh, right.

When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.

Hyperbole. Not "anything" can happen and we have no ability to suppose what is "normal" for this kind of event.

Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth's history. It's happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.

Except Venus and Mars, which have no magnetosphere.

As for "happening again now"... It's always happening. The magnetosphere is dynamic and the poles are permanently drifting. There's no sychronised effort on behalf of the planets to change polarity all at once - it's a natural, ongoing process inherent to magnetically active bodies (including some moons - Ganymede springs to mind).


The magnetic field drives weather to a significant degree and when that field starts migrating superstorms start erupting.

The superstorms have arrived

The first evidence we have that the dangerous superstorm cycle has started is the devastating series of storms that pounded the UK during late 2010.

Now, I know I was in Florida for a couple of weeks "during late 2010", but I'd say I'd spent the majority of "late 2010" actually in the UK. I don't remember being "pounded" by anything. Sure, it was pretty snowy from the ass-end of November right through to the point bits of January, but you know what? It was in 2009 too. And 2008. I haven't seen a "devastating" storm since 1987, never mind a series of them.

But I only live here.


On the heels of the lashing the British Isles sustained, monster storms began to lash North America. The latest superstorm—as of this writing—is a monster over the U.S. that stretched across 2,000 miles affecting more than 150 million people.

Snowed there too, eh?

Yet even as that storm wreaked havoc across the Western, Southern, Midwestern and Northeastern states, another superstorm broke out in the Pacific and closed in on Australia.

Has to be said, Yasi was a good one. Though if Yasi is the benchmark for "superstorms", the previous two examples look even more foolish.

But then only a handful of weeks later another superstorm—the megamonster cyclone Yasi—struck northeastern Australia. The damage it left in its wake is being called by rescue workers a war zone.

There's a thread on GTP already about this. Doesn't look particularly warzone to me.

The incredible superstorm packed winds near 190mph. Although labeled as a category-5 cyclone, it was theoretically a category-6. The reason for that is storms with winds of 155mph are considered category-5, yet Yasi was almost 22 percent stronger than that.

Sweet. Where's the "theory" on this one then?

I only ask as you can have two Category 4 storms that have a 25% difference in windspeeds. Oh, also that storm category isn't based on gust speed (yep, Yasi managed 185mph gusts), but 10 minute sustained speeds and Yasi managed a paltry 125mph peak over a 10 minute spell. High enough for Australian Category 5, but only high enough for a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale used for North Atlantic Hurricanes. Not quite an ill-defined, imaginary "Category 6" that it theoretically wasn't.


Some climate researchers, monitoring the rapidly shifting magnetic field, are predicting superstorms in the future with winds as high as 300 to 400mph.

[Citation needed]

And it's in a constant state of flux.

Holy crap! A fact! Quick, don't let it get away!

The Earth's northern magnetic pole was moving towards Russia at a rate of about five miles annually. That progression to the East had been happening for decades.

Suddenly, in the past decade the rate sped up. Now the magnetic pole is shifting East at a rate of 40 miles annually, an increase of 800 percent. And it continues to accelerate.

There wasn't a sudden increase at all - it has been increasing gradually since 1970, meaning a rate of change of less than one mile per year per year. Quick, build the Space Ark.

Oh, and not to question their ability to read a compass, but it's not moving East at all. It's moving Northwest and has been since measurements first began. Russia might be East of Canada on a big map of the World, but it's also West. And North, to the North Pole, and back South a bit. Moving towards Russia != Moving East.


I'll let someone else take the rest. I need to collect my jaw from the floor.
 
Sunspots from last month are again beginning to face Earth. The Sun rotates in ~27 days, but that varies depending upon the latitude, indicating the Sun is not a solid body.

http://spaceweather.com/ <--from 3/9/11
FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION: A coronal mass ejection (CME) exploded from the vicinity of sunspot 1164 during the late hours of March 7th. It leapt away from the sun traveling ~2200 km/s, making it the fastest CME since Sept. 2005. A movie of the cloud prepared by Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab shows a possibly substantial Earth-directed component. This CME and at least one other could brush against Earth's magnetic field on March 9th or 10th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Solar flares precede many but not all CME's and travel at light speed. But precisely how multi-billion tonne CME's accelerate to substantial fractions of light speed when reaching Earth is not known.
 
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http://spaceweather.com/ <-- Archive April 10, 2011

Interesting phenomena currently happening on the sun. Solar flares, CME's and now the possibility of an "Hyder flare" from the collapse of a truly gigantic (700,000 km) plasma filament wrapping around the sun

AURORA WATCH: High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of geomagnetic activity during the next 48 hours, when a solar wind stream is expected to buffet Earth's magnetic field. A coronal mass ejection (movie) detected by NASA's STEREO probes on April 9th could also reach Earth and contribute to the display on April 11th. [aurora gallery]

GRAND FILAMENT: A magnificent filament of magnetism is curling around the sun's southeastern quadrant today. Measuring more than 700,000 km from end to end, the vast structure is about twice as long as the separation between Earth and the Moon. Arrows trace the filament's meandering path in this extreme UV image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:


More on Hyder flares: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/4/1
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=04&year=2011

Of late, the Hyder mechanism has come into question. Some people (notably Zirin) have questioned whether infall occurs, stating that the magnetic reconfiguration must always produce ejection. The respective roles of flares and CME's in solar active processes has also been hotly debated, and this has implications for the exact mechanism of Hyder flares. We certainly have enough observational evidence to show that Hyder flares can be associated with both CME's and energetic particle production. For the moment, the question of Hyder flare production mechanism appears unresolved, and will probably be sidelined until the more significant (and undoubtedly related) issue of CME - flare production mechanism is sorted out.

The bottom line is that at this stage in solar physics we do not really know what produces a flare nor what produces a CME. There are competing theories, but all tend to have deficiencies with respect to matching the observational evidence. We certainly believe that they all depend on the reconfiguration of magnetic fields as their primary energy source, but in the final analysis, we really only believe this because we can conceive of no other solar energy source of sufficient magnitude.


Respectfully submitted,
Dotini
 
GTP members are encouraged to look for displays of aurora borealis, noctilucents clouds, or other unusual weather/geology events over the next few days, as a series of moderately strong solar storms are arriving on Earth.

http://spaceweather.com/ <-- Archive August 4, 2011
STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a strong M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event. Stay tuned for updates.

INCOMING CLOUDS: At least two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are now en route to Earth, propelled toward us by eruptions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot 1261 on August 2nd and 3rd. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab have just produced a new 3-D model of the advancing CMEs. Click on the image to set the clouds in motion:


Respectfully submitted,
Steve
 
I take it you are quite interested in the sun's activity, Dotini?

Yes, Encyclopedia, that's true. For the following reasons:
- I'm retired, and enjoy continuing education and intellectual stimulation. In my working life, I never had the opportunity for studies I can undertake now.
- The sun still has many unanswered mysteries for science, and of course is a proxy for other stars in the universe, and for the ways in which it all works.
- The sun has a practical effect on us in our quotidian lives. It has cycles and effects that are only beginning to become apparent.
- Recently NASA has invested in several missions to study the sun. We are blessed to have new kinds of data to work with.
- Some very clever and advanced people of the past, notably the pyramid-building Egyptians, worshiped the sun as their god. So there is a religio-mythical aspect to the sun, which enhances the fun.

Respectfully yours,
Steve
 
Yes, Encyclopedia, that's true. For the following reasons:
- I'm retired, and enjoy continuing education and intellectual stimulation. In my working life, I never had the opportunity for studies I can undertake now.
- The sun still has many unanswered mysteries for science, and of course is a proxy for other stars in the universe, and for the ways in which it all works.
- The sun has a practical effect on us in our quotidian lives. It has cycles and effects that are only beginning to become apparent.
- Recently NASA has invested in several missions to study the sun. We are blessed to have new kinds of data to work with.
- Some very clever and advanced people of the past, notably the pyramid-building Egyptians, worshiped the sun as their god. So there is a religio-mythical aspect to the sun, which enhances the fun.

Respectfully yours,
Steve

Not just the egyptians, Mayans made observatories, stone hendge is linked to the solstices.
 
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GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A major geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on August 5th around 1800 UT. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras after nightfall. Tip: the best hours for aurora sightings are usually around local midnight. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that the CME impact may have strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. Stay tuned for updates on this aspect of the storm.

The arriving CME left the sun on August 4th, propelled by an M9.3-category eruption in the magnetic canopy of sunspot 1261. Click on the image to view a movie of the expanding cloud recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:
http://spaceweather.com/ <-- archive August 5, 2011
 
Curious, how exactly would these auoras look like, and how can I see them? It's quite hard, since I live in the middle of the city, and the lights will make it quite hard to see anything. I don't know where to look...
 
They look like every other aurora. If you have never seen one, drive out of the city until the light pollution becomes very minimal. Problem might be the fact you live in Jamaica, unfortunately they don't always appear that close to the equator.
 

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