STORM Watch: Hurricane HARVEY - Aug 2017

[photonrider]

Please note:
This Hurricane is now over.

_________________________

My thoughts have automatically turned to GTP Members in its path.
Please do take care of yourselves.

Updates:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...harvey-makes-landfall-in-texas-latest-updates​

 

[CodeRedR51]

This new GOES-16 satellite is putting out some incredible images right now.

 

[photonrider]

Now that it has made landfall it should slow down, lose some energy, maybe even be downgraded.

Floods are possible now, but driving through water is one of the most dangerous things to do.
No one should attempt this.


Some tips:

 

[CodeRedR51]

Some intense video coming out. Several storm chasers are stuck in a hotel that has had the roof blown off and one whole side of it is gone. I guess the local high school has been leveled.

 

[Tex]

As of right now, I'm not getting any direct impact from Harvey until the middle of next week when the starts making a b-line towards Houston. At the moment, I'm getting hit with a stray shower here and there. I'm still going to have to keep a good eye on Harvey for over the weekend with the increasing chance of rain and heavy flooding that may cause some issues for me as I start college again on Monday.

 

[ildd]

As of right now, I'm not getting any direct impact from Harvey until the middle of next week when the starts making a b-line towards Houston. At the moment, I'm getting hit with a stray shower here and there. I'm still going to have to keep a good eye on Harvey for over the weekend with the increasing chance of rain and heavy flooding that may cause some issues for me as I start college again on Monday.

I'm in the same boat (ahaaa pun), I'm just waiting until we get flooded. It's not supposed to hit us for a couple more hours, but that's mainly the only reason I'm staying up late.

 

[photonrider]

As of right now, I'm not getting any direct impact from Harvey until the middle of next week when the starts making a b-line towards Houston. At the moment, I'm getting hit with a stray shower here and there. I'm still going to have to keep a good eye on Harvey for over the weekend with the increasing chance of rain and heavy flooding that may cause some issues for me as I start college again on Monday.

I'm in the same boat (ahaaa pun), I'm just waiting until we get flooded. It's not supposed to hit us for a couple more hours, but that's mainly the only reason I'm staying up late.

Where are you guys, specifically?
I know that quite a few of you in Houston are used to this - and tend to ride it out - but is it safe enough?
Apparently, from all the hype, this one is no beneficial pooka, but a full-blown onslaught on property and people, and may have quite visible damage.
What's going on outside your homes? Do you have video or photos?
We cannot fully trust commercial media today - anything connected with making a dollar is not to be trusted - and so therefore we must depend on ourselves, the people, to inform ourselves; the information for the people must come from the people and of the people.

Let us know as best as possible - but bottom line is that you must protect yourselves; nature is not to be trifled with.
Those who are familiar with my thread-making habits know I regularly post 'Storm Watch' threads, but I do so only when our Western Hemisphere is threatened (after all I don't very well know Japanese and leave that sort of thing for forums in the Eastern Hemisphere) but I do so only when something approaching disaster-level comes along.
There is no doubt lives will be lost in this one. An inescapable reality.
I wish it would not be so. I wish it would just all blow away. And that is possible, too; sometimes even a Superstorm or a Perfect Storm calms down and goes away for quite mysterious reasons, however, it is better to be safer than sorry - so please take care.

The worst won't be over till a week or so has gone - there will be many side-effects and the aftermath will also affect many.

 

[ildd]

Where are you guys, specifically?
I know that quite a few of you in Houston are used to this - and tend to ride it out - but is it safe enough?

I'm on the northeast side of Houston. I know the south was getting it a little earlier, but it's been basically dry over here for the last 8 hours. We're expecting and are preparing for floods, but only about a foot, maximum. We live on a small hill so that's a plus. Although other areas of Houston will probably be getting multiple feet of flood water. Electricity is almost certain to go out. It really depends of what your idea of safe is, but we should only be having to fix flood damage (and if it's like a couple of the bigger hurricanes/storms in the past 20 years, that could be a lot).

What's going on outside your homes? Do you have video or photos?

I've seen some of the clips posted from Corpus Christi/Rockport earlier today and this thing ain't no joke. But that's almost four hours drive from where I live. Local meteorologists are thinking by the end of Saturday, it'll loop around and start hitting Houston hard again.

 

[Tex]

Where are you guys, specifically?

I live on the northeast side of Houston as well.

I know that quite a few of you in Houston are used to this - and tend to ride it out - but is it safe enough?

Safety might come into question. While Houston has experience many hurricanes/tropical storms over the half century, only three have prove devastated in the modern era, Alicia (1983), Allison (2001), & Ike (2008). While I can't say much about Alicia (since I wasn't born yet), I experienced both Allison and Ike. Allison proved how Houston is Flood prone, and Ike proved how much damage a Cat. 2 hurricane is capable of. While I may include Rita (2005) to that list, most of destruction was eastern Texas and Louisiana, and the destruction in the Houston area came in the form of the evacuation. As @ildd mentioned, most houses (built on the last 20 years) in Houston are a few feet above street level to prevent flood damage. While this innovation has proven to be successful over the years, Harvey is going to put these modern houses to the test. While these houses experienced two major hurricanes in the last 11 years, a majority of these homes were hit with the weaker portion of Rita and Ike (which is the western parts). Harvey on the other hand, is going to strike Houston first with the eastern portion of the storm, which is the strong side. To add salt to the wound, Harvey is the first Cat. 4 storm to strike Texas in 56 years, so Houston's and central coastal Texas drainage systems are going to be put the ultimate test. As for me and my family safety, we all went through ordeal with Ike, we know what to expect.

 

[photonrider]

@Tex , @ildd - I don't have friends in Texas but the ones in Cali that are communicating with me are not taking it too seriously ("Houston, you have a problem!" ) and this is part of the issue - where we have to walk a fine line between media hype and reality.
Reports are that FEMA have an experienced person at the helm this time around, and since we've all been on the Don's ass since he took office, the Prez is also taking his job seriously (apart from sneaking in some other controversial political decisions under cover of this emergency, according to the mainstream media).
We cannot ignore the fact, though, that previous storms like this have brought out alligators, snakes and even fire ants - and that flooding is going to be the major problem since this is a slow-moving storm and will keep on dumping one of nature's most valuable (yet terrifyingly invasive and erosive) resources on most of that area north-east of Corpus Christie, and even is supposed to return to sea before it comes back to resurrect further havoc.
Dollar-value damage, no doubt, will be in the millions.

 

[ildd]

@photonrider I went to bed shortly after I posted that last message, but it apparently didn't start raining bad here until 5:30 or 6. Nothing extreme that I've seen but it's going to rain for almost four more days straight. There's been tornadoes in Katy (about an hour drive west of me) and in Richmond (about 30 minutes north of me) that have brought down billboards. But I think and hope that's all the major wind we'll see. Still expecting tons of rain. We've managed to miss a lot of it, surprisingly. The last major hurricane that came through in 2008, we had an oak tree uprooted a few hundred feet from our house that brought up the sewer with it. Fun times. Electricity was out for a full two weeks while we stayed in San Antonio.

@Tex Would you happen to be near Humble/Porter? If you don't mind me asking.

The place I work at was flooded this morning with about an inch of water on the floor. Luckily I'm off today and tomorrow.

 

[Tex]

@photonrider@Tex Would you happen to be near Humble/Porter? If you don't mind me asking.

I live near the northeast corner of the beltway.

 

[Techy]

I dunno if anyone checked the national hurricane center, but i found there's a 40% cyclone formation chance for Florida, with 50% chance over 5 days. definitely noticed something off about the weather lately - albeit somewhat normal for Florida weather during the Summer, but this one's a tad different

 

[JohnBM01]

I just wanted to pop in here to say that I'm okay. A lot of my friends and family are here in the Houston-Galveston area. The concern has been about the rain more than any hurricane force winds or anything. This is still a long-progressing event. Flooding rains and high water will be possible here. For the most part, though, I'm fine. Hopefully my own Southeast Texas and South Central Texas residents and natives are okay from Hurricane Harvey.

 

[CodeRedR51]

 

[photonrider]

^
HARVEY doesn't seem to like Chevys - and makes a heck of a mess.

I dunno if anyone checked the national hurricane center, but I found there's a 40% cyclone formation chance for Florida, with 50% chance over 5 days. Definitely noticed something off about the weather lately - albeit somewhat normal for Florida weather during the Summer, but this one's a tad different

There has been lots of talk over the media about tornados as well as cyclones that have the potential to raise their ugly snouts in the surrounding areas. So far only one fatality - and that I hear was someone caught in a house fire. Lots of people rescued - the emergency personnel are doing a great job without any fanfare whatsoever - hats off to these people who never get the limelight from the media - one has to be an asshat to get any attention; the good guys go unnoticed.
It also occurs to me that HARVEY probably saved a few lives today by keeping people off the roads on their regular road-rage run around. But at great material cost.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Tornado warnings West of Houston.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Luckily, I live in the Dallas area, and for the last 48-72 hours or so, I feared that I was in the storm's path. I am remaining relatively dry given the circumstances.

 

[photonrider]

Someone put up a sign saying "Be Nice, Harvey!' and looks like the hurricane calmed down a lot. Still a lot of water sloshing around, though.

 

[JohnBM01]

The outer bands of (now) Tropical Storm Harvey are now impacting the Houston area. Loud thunderstorms and frequent lightning are happening tonight right now. And I swear I can't go at least five minutes without another weather alert on my tablet PC. Could be a long night... but I was expecting this to ultimately happen.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

I live near the Galleria, just inside the loop. The feeder band that just passed dumped hard rain for over two hours. Street flooding everywhere. Now there is another feeder band heading in from the west, and one behind that near Columbus.

Could be a long night...

Indeed.

 

[McLaren]

News reports saying you guys have amassed 6-7" of water in just an hour. Report 10 minutes ago said a couple bayous are also beginning to crest with immediate flooding expected throughout the night.

Stay safe guys.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

The National Weather Service has issued a "Flash Flood Emergency", Their strongest warning. I have never even heard of that.
It is raining hard again.

News reporters that were driving around town reporting, are now stuck on overpasses.

Live feed

 

[photonrider]

This storm brings to my mind a certain unmentionable military strategist of the past - the kind that caused devastating damage while not making a big noise about it, catching the enemy completely unaware, stroking their heads while slicing off their nuts.
HARVEY is not to be taken with a pinch of salt, leaving bewilderment and material carnage in its wake while setting up the population for sickness and death.
Preserve your food stocks, boil your water - and stay out of your cars - do not try to drive through water; I've already mentioned against this - recent reports point to another fatality; this time a woman who drove through water, got out of her car and was found dead thirty yards away from it.
This mass amount of water moving around also carries with it disease (remember the Aztecs).
As well, now that HARVEY has deluged everything with one of the most invincible elements of nature, constructions are going to be weaker, unstable, and can give away or collapse. HARVEY's main weapon is the element of surprise (just like that military strategist I didn't mention) so I beg of all in its path to be especially careful. Nature has a strange way of 'cleaning up' populations and we must be very, very careful to not be carried away by even a shred of complacence.
Its not the 'mighty wind and big noise' that is the danger. It's what will catch you napping.

As is, emergency personnel are working at full capacity, having already saved many lives that could have been lost. To put oneself in the way of danger carelessly is only to tax them further.

If one needs a closer look to satisfy their vicarious rubber-necking urges - then buy a drone.

_______________

In other news - a guy gets shot trying to loot a house, and a dog has its day
I'll leave you to find the best source - though the dog has already gone viral on Twitter.

 

[homeforsummer]

"Unprecedented" rainfall in this morning's forecast. 22 inches. Predicted totals of 50 inches or more before the storm abates - the most in US recorded history.

Absolutely insane. Hope Houston-based GTPers are still keeping safe.

 

[JohnBM01]

Last night was indeed a long night. No damage or water has impacted me or my house. My power and Wi-Fi remain active. There is still a lot of rain mostly here in the Houston-Galveston area. For the most part, I am okay along with my family.

For reference, I am around the Hobby Airport area here in Southeast Houston. Remain Texas tough, all of my Southeast Texas as well as central Texas and southern Texas folks!

 

[McLaren]

Last night was indeed a long night. No damage or water has impacted me or my house. My power and Wi-Fi remain active. There is still a lot of rain mostly here in the Houston-Galveston area. For the most part, I am okay along with my family.

For reference, I am around the Hobby Airport area here in Southeast Houston. Remain Texas tough, all of my Southeast Texas as well as central Texas and southern Texas folks!

Read this morning Hobby Airport had around 3" of water and 500 people were stuck there. Stay safe John.

 

[Beeblebrox237]

This storm brings to my mind a certain unmentionable military strategist of the past - the kind that caused devastating damage while not making a big noise about it, catching the enemy completely unaware, stroking their heads while slicing off their nuts.

The opening of this documentary on Katrina mimics what you've just said. Major hurricanes pack an incredible punch, but you're wrong on one major count: nobody should have been caught unaware. We knew Harvey was coming, we can predict roughly what will happen, and we can (and did) advise people to prepare and evacuate. To imply that Harvey snuck up on Texas with no warning is laughable.

To everyone in the affected area, I hope you guys are safe and are able remain so.

 

[McLaren]

The extent of Harvey is what no one advised on. Even in Dallas, we were told it'd be a Category 3 storm when it made landfall & would drop around 12-14" of water at most when it was done. Houston wasn't even considered a major target, because they thought the storm would move slightly west and stop.

There was never any word about the dangers of 24" of water in 24 hours. Again, even in Dallas, we were told we'd see virtually none of Harvey, but as of this morning, the outer bands are beginning to push some rain here.

It was a bad storm that people were advice to leave beforehand, they just didn't expect it to be so widespread.

 

[Beeblebrox237]

I agree that the storm's dynamic has changed somewhat, but I don't think it should have come as a shock to anyone that a category 4 hurricane can be incredibly destructive in more ways than one, and if it's going to be relatively stationary then you'll have problems. Even in Pittsburgh people can tell you that these systems can cause serious damage (Ivan) based on rainfall alone.

Also, when you say "they", do you mean the NHC or others not as credible? I don't know about you but my first port of call for hurricane prediction is the NHC and I'd trust them over pretty much anyone else. I'd also query what you said about the storm stopping after moving slightly west. Does that seem odd to you or is that just me? These systems rarely just stop; they might circle around or turn around like Harvey is doing but they don't usually stop forever. It looks like Harvey will eventually move off to the North-Northeast, but not before turning around just offshore, likely gaining some strength in the process.

Speaking of the NHC, it looks like the Carolinas ought to be on the lookout for an incoming tropical storm.

EDIT: On Wednesday, 23 Aug at 10 PM CDT, the NWS in Miami issued an update on Harvey with the following prediction:

Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with
heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches
along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.public.014.shtml?

This was four days ago, when Harvey was still a tropical depression. I realise that now we're talking about nearly 50 inches in some places, but it's also worth noting that by 4 PM on Thursday the NHC was quoting 35 inches. If local authorities weren't informing people of the danger here, then they aren't doing their jobs. This was always going to be a dangerous situation, and the forecasts have been there from the start. Or rather, here.