STORM Watch: Hurricane HARVEY - Aug 2017

[JohnBM01]

Tropical Storm Harvey has weakened a whole lot as of now, but this is not over by any stretch. There is still the possibility of about 15-25 inches of rain to the Houston area. It may take this upcoming week or even into next week for these waters to truly recede and for Houston to return to normal. My electricity and everything still work fine. I'm one of the more fortunate ones through all of this madness.

 

[McLaren]

I agree that the storm's dynamic has changed somewhat, but I don't think it should have come as a shock to anyone that a category 4 hurricane can be incredibly destructive in more ways than one, and if it's going to be relatively stationary then you'll have problems. Even in Pittsburgh people can tell you that these systems can cause serious damage (Ivan) based on rainfall alone.

I never said it wouldn't be destructive. I said the extent of it was not advised on. The storm was advised as a CAT 3 that would likely lose strength once over land. By the time it became a CAT 4 at the last minute, the tones changed and it was advised to begin evacuations elsewhere as well.

Also, when you say "they", do you mean the NHC or others not as credible? I don't know about you but my first port of call for hurricane prediction is the NHC and I'd trust them over pretty much anyone else. I'd also query what you said about the storm stopping after moving slightly west. Does that seem odd to you or is that just me? These systems rarely just stop; they might circle around or turn around like Harvey is doing but they don't usually stop forever. It looks like Harvey will eventually move off to the North-Northeast, but not before turning around just offshore, likely gaining some strength in the process.

Local news; CBS, ABC, Fox from South Texas and my own weatherman here. I've been watching these channels stream since Thursday. You know, the people that citizens tend to tune into to get their weather information & are supposed to relay what other experts advise? I've also been told by friends down in Houston/Austin that they were warned to avoid the coast. They were not warned about this significant amount of flooding until the storm changed up its course. As I said, Houston was expecting rain for 2-3 days after Harvey. It was expected to flood in certain parts. No one was expecting to be told to suddenly, "Stay home. Do not travel. All roads out of Houston are flooded". There wasn't even talk of tornadoes developing down south, but now those have become an immediate risk. A couple counties were placed on a 8-10 hour watch.

As for the storm stopping, you said it yourself they rarely stop. That's why we rarely get a year's worth of rain in 1 night. The storm was expected to make landfall at 7AM Saturday. By 7AM Sunday, projections only showed a 100 mile travel north to I believe, Victoria. That's not what they expect a storm to do, hence why the first reports said that specific part of Texas would receive constant rain. Again, at this time, Houston was not expected to be hit as hard as it has been b/c they thought the storm would project west away from Houston before coming back out to the coast. Instead, it ended up tracking slightly north hence why Dallas now has the outer bands of the storm. We were told we would not see any of it; any storms we had would be the result of another front from the north.

There was never any fear of this in Houston, when Harvey first hit Rockport. There are, naturally, people upset on Social Media towards the news for "downplaying" risks.

Edit* Reporting KHOU11 news is now off-air due to flooding.

 

[Beeblebrox237]

I never said it wouldn't be destructive. I said the extent of it was not advised on. The storm was advised as a CAT 3 that would likely lose strength once over land. By the time it became a CAT 4 at the last minute, the tones changed and it was advised to begin evacuations elsewhere as well.

Wait, how does the storm going from category 3 to category 4 create such a bit change? Either way it's a major hurricane.

Local news; CBS, ABC, Fox from South Texas and my own weatherman here. I've been watching these channels stream since Thursday. You know, the people that citizens tend to tune into to get their weather information & are supposed to relay what other experts advise? I've also been told by friends down in Houston/Austin that they were warned to avoid the coast. They were not warned about this significant amount of flooding until the storm changed up its course. As I said, Houston was expecting rain for 2-3 days after Harvey. It was expected to flood in certain parts. No one was expecting to be told to suddenly, "Stay home. Do not travel. All roads out of Houston are flooded".

Well, your local news and weather people failed you, and they failed the people in the storm's path.

As for the storm stopping, you said it yourself they rarely stop.

And Harvey isn't stopping, merely turning around. Twice.

There wasn't even talk of tornadoes even developing, but now those have become an immediate risk.

Tornadoes are always a risk when tropical cyclones make landfall.

It sounds to me like the local news and those who are relied upon to warn the public directly failed, and they failed in a big way, if they can't even get across the most basic points about the dangers of a hurricane. Flooding is always a concern, and with Harvey it's been a very major concern since its formation. Tornadoes are always a concern; I thought that was common knowledge. Perhaps these people assumed the same, I don't know. But realistically, they should have been informing residents of these risks long before the storm made landfall, and should have been urging residents to evacuate from the point that Harvey was predicted to make landfall as a strong hurricane.

If what you're telling me is true, some of these people need to lose their jobs. The warnings were there, and were issued by the people in the know. It sounds like even the most basic information didn't find its way through to the public, which is shocking and saddening.

There are, naturally, people upset on Social Media towards the news for "downplaying" risks.

I can imagine! I wonder if some of this is simply down to complacency. It's the first major hurricane to make landfall for 12 years, and I wonder if people have forgotten just how powerful a major hurricane is.

 

[McLaren]

Wait, how does the storm going from category 3 to category 4 create such a bit change? Either way it's a major hurricane.

Because it was expected to barely be a CAT 3 by landfall and would quickly lose strength.

And Harvey isn't stopping, merely turning around. Twice.

Hindsight is 20:20. It was not expected to do what it is doing now.

It sounds to me like the local news and those who are relied upon to warn the public directly failed, and they failed in a big way, if they can't even get across the most basic points about the dangers of a hurricane. Flooding is always a concern, and with Harvey it's been a very major concern since its formation. Tornadoes are always a concern; I thought that was common knowledge. Perhaps these people assumed the same, I don't know. But realistically, they should have been informing residents of these risks long before the storm made landfall, and should have been urging residents to evacuate from the point that Harvey was predicted to make landfall as a strong hurricane.

If what you're telling me is true, some of these people need to lose their jobs. The warnings were there, and were issued by the people in the know. It sounds like even the most basic information didn't find its way through to the public, which is shocking and saddening.

Look at how the source H4S quoted has been posting on Twitter.

Local rainfall amounts of 50 inches would exceed any previous Texas rainfall record. The breadth and intensity of this rainfall are beyond anything experienced before. Catastrophic flooding is now underway and expected to continue for days.

Tropical Storm #Harvey Advisory 29A: Unprecedented Flooding Occuring Over Southeastern Texas. http://go.usa.gov/W3H

This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced. Follow orders from officials to ensure safety. #Harvey

In their defense to a degree, this was never expected because it has never been this bad. I believe Ike & Rita were the last Hurricanes to pose such a threat to south Texas.

 

[photonrider]

To imply that Harvey snuck up on Texas with no warning is laughable.

There was nothing to imply that - through, no doubt, implications are birthed becuase of missing context or even simply the synapses in gear at that moment.
There were many lives saved by the unsung heroes of this disaster - meteorologists - who were talking about it days before it hit the beach.

The surprises in store come from many factors that could churn up from the future whirling into the present.

Let me quote someone in the know:

I agree that the storm's dynamic has changed somewhat ……...

Right you are.

 

[Beeblebrox237]

There was nothing to imply that

Yes, there was.

This storm brings to my mind a certain unmentionable military strategist of the past - the kind that caused devastating damage while not making a big noise about it, catching the enemy completely unaware, stroking their heads while slicing off their nuts.

You stated that this storm reminds you of a strategy based on catching the enemy unaware, and then claim that you never implied that Harvey attacked by surprise. Sort yourself out, mate.

Let me quote someone in the know:

You flatter me, but I'm not really in the know. I'm not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be; I'm merely someone who finds extreme weather interesting. I know just what you know, which is that I can check the NWS and NHC websites for updates, and I can look for news reports on the situation in Texas around the internet.

 

[ryzno]

I don't know about the media down playing the storm.
I live in GA and it has been in our news over a week.
While I'm enjoying cloudy skies and kinda cooler temps, we are feeling the affect of the storm via gas prices.

 

[Lain]

I’ve been stuck here at my place of work in Pasadena since last night. Fortunately, I work at a hotel.

I have no idea how my home is faring the storm though, so that’s a bit frustrating... especially since I’ve got two dogs and a cat there.

 

[CodeRedR51]

 

[photonrider]

Let me sort it out for you:

[FQUOTE="Beeblebrox237, post: 11925959, member: 196139"]

The opening of this documentary on Katrina mimics what you've just said. Major hurricanes pack an incredible punch, but you're wrong on one major count: nobody should have been caught unaware. We knew Harvey was coming, we can predict roughly what will happen, and we can (and did) advise people to prepare and evacuate. To imply that Harvey snuck up on Texas with no warning is laughable.

To everyone in the affected area, I hope you guys are safe and are able remain so.[/FQUOTE]

There was nothing to imply that - through, no doubt, implications are birthed because of missing context or even simply the synapses in gear at that moment.
There were many lives saved by the unsung heroes of this disaster - meteorologists - who were talking about it days before it hit the beach.

The surprises in store come from many factors that could churn up from the future whirling into the present.

As for the part about HARVEY coming back to continually strike in ways that are unprecedented (just like the military strategist I was thinking about) - that still stands.

Raw sewage in the water.
Bad air soon.
Wild aquatic animals.
Fuel stocks depleted.
Water table inundated.
Etc, etc, etc …….. I can only guess. And yet cannot. 'Unprecedented' is the catchword of the moment.

This is also a derailment of the discussion by you (for reasons I'm completely at a loss to understand). What is important here is we try to provide first-person accounts, if possible, provide a heads-up to those who need it, and gather as much real-time detail as we can that may benefit those who google 'Hurricane Harvey' in search of pertinent information.
That is a function of GTPlanet.

Unfortunately - as I have brought up in another discussion - news dissemination is almost instant now, and conflicting reports can lead to confusion and even more disaster. This site is curated - (well-curated, I might add) by a diligent staff and many people (a.k.a. 'guests') come in here trusting that what is on the table is credible.

Now, if you don't mind you can continue thrashing conceptual anomalies with me in a PM - or get back to discussing what is actually pertinent; the unprecedented activity of this storm that will leave the fourth largest city in the U.S. with the kind of disaster that will cost billions.
And is still taking us by surprise.
(Apart from people like you who do seem to be a step ahead of it at every moment.)

________________________

Please note: I have left the title of the discussion as is, since much of the mainstream media is still calling it as such - in fact a named storm that seems to be hanging on to its name longer than many others before it.

 

[Beeblebrox237]

Let me sort it out for you:

[FQUOTE="Beeblebrox237, post: 11925959, member: 196139"]

The opening of this documentary on Katrina mimics what you've just said. Major hurricanes pack an incredible punch, but you're wrong on one major count: nobody should have been caught unaware. We knew Harvey was coming, we can predict roughly what will happen, and we can (and did) advise people to prepare and evacuate. To imply that Harvey snuck up on Texas with no warning is laughable.

To everyone in the affected area, I hope you guys are safe and are able remain so.[/FQUOTE]



As for the part about HARVEY coming back to continually strike in ways that are unprecedented (just like the military strategist I was thinking about) - that still stands.

Raw sewage in the water.
Bad air soon.
Wild aquatic animals.
Fuel stocks depleted.
Water table inundated.
Etc, etc, etc …….. I can only guess. And yet cannot. 'Unprecedented' is the catchword of the moment.

This is also a derailment of the discussion by you (for reasons I'm completely at a loss to understand). What is important here is we try to provide first-person accounts, if possible, provide a heads-up to those who need it, and gather as much real-time detail as we can that may benefit those who google 'Hurricane Harvey' in search of pertinent information.
That is a function of GTPlanet.

Unfortunately - as I have brought up in another discussion - news dissemination is almost instant now, and conflicting reports can lead to confusion and even more disaster. This site is curated - (well-curated, I might add) by a diligent staff and many people (a.k.a. 'guests') come in here trusting that what is on the table is credible.

Now, if you don't mind you can continue thrashing conceptual anomalies with me in a PM - or get back to discussing what is actually pertinent; the unprecedented activity of this storm that will leave the fourth largest city in the U.S. with the kind of disaster that will cost billions.
And is still taking us by surprise.
(Apart from people like you who do seem to be a step ahead of it at every moment.)

________________________

Please note: I have left the title of the discussion as is, since much of the mainstream media is still calling it as such - in fact a named storm that seems to be hanging on to its name longer than many others before it.

You're not addressing my point, and now it looks like you've deliberately not quoted me properly in order to try and end this discussion. You've not added anything in this post that we haven't already been over, and instead of actually responding to my statement you've simply restated the same thing over again. Until you have something new to add to the discussion, I'm done here.

 

[Pupik]

Hope everyone in the Houston area and coast are doing okay, because this looks like shades of Katrina all over again. Despite flooding, it's been nice to see neighbor helping neighbor, and selfless souls helping complete strangers in need. There's more images of that than the ravages of this storm.

I was in San Antonio the week leading up to this, and it wasn't downplayed there; although, local news didn't seem horribly worried, they did repeat that it could be a serious threat, after a decade of near-complacency. We had the same problem with Hurricane Andrew (though that was more about unprecedented wind speeds, rather than massive rainfall); no major hurricanes in 13 years, and people were generally less prepared out of a lack of practice and preparation.

I think the media has to hype up tropical storm activity, it's the only thing that will grab everyone's attention without much question of the source and motives. And nothing keeps people glued than having updates about things that actually matter. Do they sometimes go to far? Yeah, there's minor tropical disturbances that sometimes try to get everyone into a frenzy over the first 38mph gust.

It's fruitless to point fingers at this time.

 

[ildd]

This is the end of my street a few hours ago. It's risen about another foot since then.
It's never flooded over here. In 18 years there's never been standing water.

 

[JohnBM01]

I was pretty blessed my electricity or my Wi-Fi didn't go out through all of this. I remain okay. Thank all of you for your concern of me and others whom have dealt with Hurricane Harvey.

 

[UKMikey]

I'm sorry that eight people lost their lives but I'm glad it hasn't reached Katrina levels.

 

[McLaren]

@Beeblebrox237 : Looks like the Houston Mayor is now getting a lot of blame for telling people to not leave.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/houston-mayor-defends-decision-issue-evacuation-order/story?id=49453471

These tweets are still there. Lee Hutchinson admits he made a big mistake on his Twitter.

Spoiler

 

[Beeblebrox237]

This is the end of my street a few hours ago. It's risen about another foot since then.
It's never flooded over here. In 18 years there's never been standing water.
View attachment 669655 View attachment 669656 View attachment 669657

Jeez. Stay safe man, I hope the waters don't rise any further where you are, or anywhere for that matter. Please do keep us updated on your situation!

@Beeblebrox237 : Looks like the Houston Mayor is now getting a lot of blame for telling people to not leave.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/houston-mayor-defends-decision-issue-evacuation-order/story?id=49453471

These tweets are still there. Lee Hutchinson admits he made a big mistake on his Twitter.

Spoiler

Hmmm. I agree with the Mayor; evacuating Houston wouldn't be practical unless they were expecting a direct hit, and even then the evacuation would probably be a fiasco. The evacuations for Katrina were problematic, and at the time New Orleans was less than a quarter of the size of Houston. Unfortunately, as you yourself have mentioned, this level of flooding wasn't anticipated in Houston which has compounded the problem. For now it seems that what can be done is being done, and the number of fatalities is fortunately very low for such an event, so far. I've been watching a local news stream and while the situation is unreal, it does seem like the authorities are doing a reasonable job of keeping people informed and keeping on top of the ongoing situation. Whether they're planning for the coming days is yet to be seen, though, and it sounds like some shelters as well as buildings like hospitals may find themselves in urgent need of supplies in the next 48 hours.

 

[JohnBM01]

Houston is pretty much a flat city all around. It's a flat city fairly above sea level. So we are not as vulnerable as, say, New Orleans. Things wouldn't be as bad if Harvey was more directed towards Houston. I was born the year Hurricane Alicia hit Houston (1983). I was too young to remember those impacts.

Funny thing about myself is that some of Houston's worst weather impacts came on years when I graduated. When I graduated from High School in 2001, the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison rampaged Houston. When I got my Associate's in the Arts in 2008, Hurricane Ike impacted Houston hard. Haven't been to school since, but Harvey made its impact for sure. Weird.

 

[Lain]

Still stuck at work, but i’ve managed to find some pics from my neighborhood floating around on instagram... fortunately it doesn’t look like we got hit too hard. My flood fears have mostly been put to rest... now I just worry that the dogs are trying to eat each other, since they’ve definitely gotta be out of dry food by now.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

I have been stuck at home. I live in a condo, and my parking space is on the 1st floor of the garage, and it will flood. So I left my car at work, a safe place.

I was thinking this thing was over Sunday night, but it has rained all day Monday, not really hard, like when the feeder bands came through, but a yellowish-orange on the radar kind of rain.

On evacuating Houston, I agree 100% with the Mayor. Evacuate to where?

Houston's nickname is "The Bayou City". Houston is very flat, it is not located on a river like many American cities. Houston is striped with a number of watersheds called bayous.

The homes flooding, and rescues that you are seeing on TV is most likely around one of these bayous.

That is not to say, that there is no flooding happening elsewhere. The streets in Houston are designed to move water into the bayous. They are part of the drainage system, and they flood.

I haven't said much in this thread, because this whole thing has left me speechless. I cannot believe the catastrophe that is unfolding in my town.

 

[ildd]

I woke up at 2. Looked out my window and didn't see any water. Ate some breakfast and planned on going to the end of the street to check water levels. Got to the crown of our street and turned around, got rubber boots on, got a flashlight and headed to my neighbors house at the corner because the water was knee deep 45 minutes later. Our whole street is flooded now except for the crown. Sewers quit. Still raining.

To put it in perspective, our house is fine still. We're on a hill.
The houses at the bottom of the hill don't have a first floor anymore. They have water up to their first floors ceiling.

 

[Joey D]

I'm sorry that eight people lost their lives but I'm glad it hasn't reached Katrina levels.

Once the floods recede the death toll will unfortunately rise. I'm guessing it won't be as high as Katrina, but it could easily surpass 1,000 people.

 

[UKMikey]

Once the floods recede the death toll will unfortunately rise. I'm guessing it won't be as high as Katrina, but it could easily surpass 1,000 people.

That sucks. My sympathies are with everyone affected by this disaster.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Because it was expected to barely be a CAT 3 by landfall and would quickly lose strength.

Hindsight is 20:20. It was not expected to do what it is doing now.

So is foresight in this case. There was plenty of advice from the proper sources about the possible outcomes.

If the National Hurricane centre was giving that advice a week ago then I find it hard to believe that the weather forecasters who surely take their feeds from them didn't. Just because social media tells you that's how something went down doesn't mean that's how it went down.



EDIT: A good summary of sources from the Washington Post. Make no mistake, the events that are unfolding are disastrous... but they were predicted a week ago. If people have questions to answer then surely it's the public safety bodies who (if your account is correct) failed to prepare and thereby prepared to fail.

 

[BobK]

Once the floods recede the death toll will unfortunately rise. I'm guessing it won't be as high as Katrina, but it could easily surpass 1,000 people.

Wow, I saw a report of eight deaths and was thinking okay, that could have been a lot worse. So most of the bad news in that area isn't in yet?

I'm wondering, though, how many people in an area with a similar population would die of natural deaths in the same time span? Or of other accidents?

 

[Beeblebrox237]

Wow, I saw a report of eight deaths and was thinking okay, that could have been a lot worse. So most of the bad news in that area isn't in yet?

Sadly not. It's still raining in Houston and the water levels are still rising, in some places very rapidly. It doesn't look like floodwaters are going to start receding in any big way until perhaps the end of the week, perhaps later. Unfortunately the situation is still ongoing, and still worsening.

 

[IforceV8]

"we didnt know" is not a excuse.

 

[Danoff]

I just spotted a headline that says that 80% of Harvey victims don't have flood insurance. That's the unintended consequence of something like FEMA coming in and bailing people out, nobody carries insurance. Why would you be a sucker and pay insurance if FEMA is going to show up and bail everyone out anyway? I dealt with this question a lot in Los Angeles with regard to the absurdly expensive earthquake insurance. If you pay for it you feel like an idiot because deductibles are high ($50k if I remember) and FEMA will bail everyone out if it's more than that. If you don't pay for it you feel like an idiot because you live in Los Angeles and don't have earthquake insurance. I'm sure the same thought process went through the heads of many Houstonites.

 

[huskeR32]

I just spotted a headline that says that 80% of Harvey victims don't have flood insurance. That's the unintended consequence of something like FEMA coming in and bailing people out, nobody carries insurance. Why would you be a sucker and pay insurance if FEMA is going to show up and bail everyone out anyway? I dealt with this question a lot in Los Angeles with regard to the absurdly expensive earthquake insurance. If you pay for it you feel like an idiot because deductibles are high ($50k if I remember) and FEMA will bail everyone out if it's more than that. If you don't pay for it you feel like an idiot because you live in Los Angeles and don't have earthquake insurance. I'm sure the same thought process went through the heads of many Houstonites.

Seems to me that the problem is that floodplain maps are inaccurate or outdated, and many residents didn't realize they lived in one.

During Allison in 2001, the last tropical storm to cause significant flooding in Houston, nearly half of the flooded buildings weren't in any officially designated floodplain at all, let alone in a 500-year zone (which requires no insurance), or a 100-year zone (which does).

Essentially, you had homeowners being told "There is less than a 1-in-500 chance that your home will flood. Insurance probably isn't necessary."

I'm not sure it's fair to characterize their behavior as taking advantage of bailouts, when the information available to them told them there likely wouldn't ever be an event to be bailed out of.

 

[Danoff]

I'm not sure it's fair to characterize their behavior as taking advantage of bailouts, when the information available to them told them there likely wouldn't ever be an event to be bailed out of.

You mean like being flooded in 2001? I remember that flood, and I'm not that old. Seems reasonable that people could figure out that a hurricane would flood them given that it happened not long ago.