I've been keeping an eye on Aru since his season has been a strong one, but he needs the team to work for him too.
Matthews is on form so far on stage 3 though (in the break as I type). Still Sky and Tinkoff setting the pace as it has been the last few days.
Porte has the experience and if I remember correctly he took the Paris - Nice this year.
To be fair it's so hard to call at the moment. Anyone not at the front is risking a crash delay/ injury, even Kintana (the younger one), who is a good rider, has skinned himself which will no doubt hinder his performance.
If I had to say I'm sure it'll be a Sky, Tinkoff, Orica Greenedge, Astana or Etixx rider who take most of the wins including the GC win, so still a choice of some 40-50 riders. lol
For me, it's Contador, fresh of 40 days of altitude training and with a team who protect him the whole way. He's after both the Giro and the Tour de France this year and I just think he's got it in him.
Edit: Domenico Pozzovivo went down really hard on a decent about 40km from the finish. He hasn't moved at all and the medics have just received ambulance to take him to hospital. Didn't look good. Certainly the end of his tour, hopefully not the end of his life.
Edit: He's conscious and breathing for himself in hospital so should be ok, thank god.