The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread
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UKMikey
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Yeah, El Paso and some other cities are waiting to collect their dues too. I guess they found it hard to turn down a Donald rally at the height of his power and risk all kinds of government sanctions and the wrath of his crazy fan base. You know Trump's involved when everyone loses except him. See: Atlantic City casinos
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UKMikey
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Note: it should perhaps be emphasised that Republicans only make up 25% of the US population if this Gallup poll is representative.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
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UKMikey
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Keef
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I think this will be ongoing for a long time because various sagas related to it are still ongoing. The story of Trump and his cronies won't end for quite a while.I wonder when this thread can finally be laid to rest. If it is before 2024, it will be revived during the next election cycle. Calling it now.
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Well, there's this:
A GOP candidate ran on an anti-Trump platform. He won just 3% of the vote.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/03/politics/michael-wood-texas-6th-district-susan-wright/index.html
Danoff
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I don't have a deep enough understanding of the history of American politics to know whether something like this has happened before. Probably around the civil war, when abolitionism kept coming up and getting argued over. What has happened in the recent past in American politics is when one party loses, that party looks internally at how they can better get their message across and connect with a broader spectrum of voters. They modify their message to get votes and be more popular next time.
But Trump is pretending he won. So the GOP is kinda awkwardly marching along with the same message (or even more muddied than before) that was already not winning. One would expect that the result would be even less popularity, especially if the sky doesn't fall on democrat control.
But Trump is pretending he won. So the GOP is kinda awkwardly marching along with the same message (or even more muddied than before) that was already not winning. One would expect that the result would be even less popularity, especially if the sky doesn't fall on democrat control.
Keef
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I've been watching too much Handmaid's Tale lately but I would argue that their message isn't necessarily not winning. It won once, and it won statehouses, and it reeled in the House, and it barely lost to Biden. Their problem isn't that the message isn't winning, it's merely that it didn't win that time which seems to be motivation enough to go all-in. The scary thing is that these people are nuts and can win again. And if they win repeatedly then we may have serious problems on our hands. We won't really know the trend until the next round of state and congressional elections, and those elections will be effected by various new laws which make voting harder for urbanites. Not just people of color but also many college-educated young people moving to urban centers which is an ongoing trend. These urban residents span the entire range of income levels and all sorts of ethnicities and religions, but they all have one thing in common which is voting Democrat.
I don't know what the next step for them is, really. The man is 74 years old so maybe the next step is "Trump didn't die!" and honestly I wouldn't put it past them.
Danoff
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I don't see the last election as being particularly close.
That is actually literally their problem right now.
Not without either changing the rules (which they are trying to do) or changing their message.
Especially after the capitol riots, I don't see how sticking with Trump is a strategy for success. He lost before the capitol riots. He'd lose much worse after.
Keef
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But they can and are changing the rules and we have to factor that in as something that will be successful. Georgia barely came around and now the rules have been changed. In most red states this doesn't matter because the margin is huge, but in places like Georgia and Texas is matters hugely. Any voting difficulty in any form is a huge advantage for Republicans because their voters are vehement and would line up three days in advance if they weren't on twelves this week.
As for how close the election was, it was extremely close. The electoral margin might seem big but it was the same number as last election and that difference is a matter of tens of thousands of votes. One particularly good commercial during the local weather on the 10s could sway that. Plus, the electoral margin was basically mandatory, as in you might as well consider it a single vote. There were like two scenarios that could've happened, one where either guy won by the margin that occurred, or one where either guy won by a single electoral vote. That's the demographics we're dealing with now, that there's basically only two realistic scenarios which can occur in the election, and we got the one that was more likely but far from certain. I predict the next election will turn out basically the same with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia calling the shots.
Edit: Another problem is that blue states will net -3 electoral votes in 2024 while red states net +3. That's a huge problem because the 269 tie almost happened in 2020 by a margin of 1.2% total in GA, AZ, and WI. That tie can no longer occur in 2024. If those three states go red, Biden loses. If any two of them go red then Biden will still win by a slim margin. But likelihood of all three being red is pretty good because all three are pushing election restrictions really hard. FL will likely be even more red as Cuban-Americans turn even more Trumpian, and Dems can't count on NC to flip although its possible. If all three of AZ, GA, and WI go red but NC flips blue then Biden wins also. I don't think that's likely to happen. I also think it's likely for PA to stay blue but again that doesn't matter because the tie is basically impossible.
https://www.270towin.com/ @Danoff
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Danoff
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You think it was close because Trump blusters like mad. It wasn't actually that close. Some states were crazy thin (like Georgia), but I did a calculation of all of the presidential elections since Bush v. Gore to determine the minimum number of votes needed (if they were all cast the other way, and all in the right states) to sway the election, and 2020 was very similar to most of the other elections (exceptions being Bush v. Gore and Obama part 2 obviously). 2020 was similar to 2016, and similar to a lot of other presidential election margins. Bush v. Gore, now that was close.
You probably aren't thinking of Hillary as having come as close as Trump. But it was quite comparable.
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UKMikey
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Trump is planning to run again in 2024 according to his latest interview with Candi.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-kn...s-2024-decision-supporters-will-be-very-happy
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-kn...s-2024-decision-supporters-will-be-very-happy
Joey D
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Trump would be 78, running against a presumably 82-year-old Biden. For the love of all that's holy, stop electing old people who are out of touch and don't give a damn about the future because they're not going to be around to see it or feel the effects. We saw this with Trump, and we're seeing it now with Biden who seems to think money magically appears and will be long dead while we're still trying to figure it out.
I know there's an age minimum for president, but there really should be an age maximum too. 250 years ago, it didn't really matter because very few 78-year-olds in 1790 were thinking about running for president. Seriously, 35-65 would be the right cap for president if we're going to have age restrictions. It would ensure the people we're electing are young enough that the future of their decisions could potentially be realized and old enough where they'd have experience.
This is probably all moot though because I can't see Donny staying out of legal trouble long enough to run for office.
UKMikey
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Regrettably article I, section 3 of the US Constitution only disqualifies convicted presidents from running again as far as I can determine.He should already be legally disqualified from doing so.
clause 7
Joey D
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McLaren
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They'll argue that he didn't get to actually carry out his 2nd term (which would be correct b/c he lost) & it would likely be spun as the Left acknowledging it was stolen.
Besides that, he's already talked in the past as if he deserves a third term because of how poorly he was treated during his first.
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Trump has now launched his communications platform...
... which is a blog on his own website where he just farts what's in his mind onto a page that looks a bit like Twitbook.
Unsurprisingly, it's already full of horsecrap claims about the election.
... which is a blog on his own website where he just farts what's in his mind onto a page that looks a bit like Twitbook.
Unsurprisingly, it's already full of horsecrap claims about the election.
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