The Hong Kong Thread

[1241Penguin]

Very big news in Hong Kong. Protestors are demanding for democracy in voting for their Chief Executive.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29054196

Small excerpt:

Occupy Central with Love and Peace, known as Occupy Central, is a civil disobedience movement launched by democracy activists in Hong Kong.

The campaigners want political reform and democratic elections that meet international standards.

It'll be interesting to see whether the CCP will be fazed by this.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The police have responded, as one might expect in China, with a big take-away.

Uncomfortable reading here, the region only left British rule 15 years ago. The thing is; it was right (in my opinion) that the land and wealth should return to China. The difficulty is that for anyone born-and-raised in Hong Kong it was a lifestyle smack-in-the-face akin to the Scout movement suddenly adopting Sharia law. Okay, that's an extreme and silly example but this has been a big change.

What will it take for the protestors to succeed? I can't see Hong Kong devolving into a sub-Chinese democratic state and nor can I see a political sea-change washing over the whole of China in response to these protests. China is just too large and immoveable.

The rabbit was angry with the mountain but the mountain didn't know.

 

[Robin]

The difficulty is that for anyone born-and-raised in Hong Kong it was a lifestyle smack-in-the-face akin to the Scout movement suddenly adopting Sharia law. Okay, that's an extreme and silly example but this has been a big change.

The Sino British Joint Declaration signed before the handover ensures no change in the Hong Kong way of life or governing for 50 years so things from an administrative level haven't changed but I guess the sentiment on the street has because it's like someone constantly watching over you going about your freedom!

This sure has escalated into something substantial, probably the biggest riots in Hong Kong since the 60's.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The Sino British Joint Declaration signed before the handover ensures no change in the Hong Kong way of life or governing for 50 years so things from an administrative level haven't changed...

It hasn't quite worked out in practice and with China insisting that the protests are "illegal", an "internal affair" and urging other countries not to get involved it doesn't look as if the Declaration is being referred to. Nonetheless other countries continue to push for HK citizens to enjoy the right to peaceful protest.

The reason for this protest is that China wish to vet (or effectively "place") the candidates for the CE election in 2017. That goes against HK's comparatively-recent democratic history.

Aunty.

 

[Liquid]

"We'll let them keep their open capitalism for 50 years, don't worry."
"You swear?"
"I swear."

Sure.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Bad news for Instagram, just as people in HK want to share pictures of the protests they've suffered a massive technical fault in China. What are the odds?

 

[ULTRAVIOLENZZ]

This could start an Asian Spring or something...

 

[Liquid]

This could start an Asian Spring or something...

To be brutally crushed by a Sino Fall, as many separatist and pro-democracy movements already are in China.

 

[TenEightyOne]

This could start an Asian Spring or something...

That would be a spring roll, surely?

 

[Robin]

This could start an Asian Spring or something...

Trust me, China won't tolerate the same thing as you saw in the Arab states and neither will Hong Kong's government. Plus it has the 2nd highest Police to citizen ratio in the world.

The reason for this protest is that China wish to vet (or effectively "place") the candidates for the CE election in 2017. That goes against HK's comparatively-recent democratic history.

Oh I know, they are going to put 3 hand picked candidates forward to vote for. It's like choosing between Chicken, Chicken and Chicken. Mmm Chicken.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Oh I know, they are going to put 3 hand picked candidates forward to vote for. It's like choosing between Chicken, Chicken and Chicken. Mmm Chicken.

Listed with different numbers though and there are some complementary crackers.

On which note; here's a good feed at the BBC. I don't think it'll be UK locked (maybe the video part of the stream). Is free-to-air and doesn't require a TV licence in the UK. Was live text/video/comment reporting at the time of posting.

 

[1241Penguin]

What sort of actions in a demonstration would justify the use of tear gas on protestors by police? I'm curious.

 

[TenEightyOne]

What sort of actions in a demonstration would justify the use of tear gas on protestors by police? I'm curious.

In this case...

demonstration

 

[1241Penguin]

Hah, it would appear so.

 

[Liquid]

Scenes in HK earlier tonight.

 

[Dotini]

It hasn't quite worked out in practice and with China insisting that the protests are "illegal", an "internal affair" and urging other countries not to get involved it doesn't look as if the Declaration is being referred to. Nonetheless other countries continue to push for HK citizens to enjoy the right to peaceful protest.

The reason for this protest is that China wish to vet (or effectively "place") the candidates for the CE election in 2017. That goes against HK's comparatively-recent democratic history.

China is not so much a nation as it is an empire of nations, comprising such as the Uyghurs, Tibetans etc. The central government can no more tolerate protests and independent thinking in Hong Kong than it can in these other provinces, no matter what old documents may say. The HK protests and desires for more democracy will likely be crushed, brutally if necessary, as it has been in the other provinces. Alas, Victoria Nuland and Catharine Ashton will not be staging any regime changes in China any time soon.

 

[1241Penguin]

I'm sure China will be more mild in dealing with Hong Kong given that the world has seen what China is capable of doing (1989) and are eyeing the situation very closely for any hints of brutality. Plus, the lack of censorship in Hong Kong should expose any use of unnecessary force by the CCP or the PLA.

 

[BobK]

I'm sure China will be more mild in dealing with Hong Kong given that the world has seen what China is capable of doing (1989) and are eyeing the situation very closely for any hints of brutality. Plus, the lack of censorship in Hong Kong should expose any use of unnecessary force by the CCP or the PLA.

And so what if China brutally suppresses the demonstrations? What's the rest of the world going to do, really? Nobody's going to go to war over it, that's for sure. Don't even mention sanctions; any real sanctions will at best accomplish nothing. So everybody says tsk, tsk, bad China and that's about it.

 

[Submerged]

The thing is, in China there has already been protest and deaths in the Xinjiang region, which is due to the central government not recognising the Muslim way of life. The main issue seems to be that the Central government in China is just too far away and too centralised to really understand each different population needs and requirements. So it always leads to this type of situation where you have protest and deaths happening relatively often.

Honestly, even if the Chinese government steamrolled the HK protestors, I don't have a feeling that the UK government would actually be able to do anything about it. Ironically, there are quite a few British people in HK, so it would create an interesting diplomatic situation for China and the UK.

China stating that other countries should keep out of it was a little bit offensive, however. Hong Kong economy has an impact around the world so whether China really likes it or not, everyone has to take notice of what happens in Hong Kong. What happens there, will have some effect of what happens in other countries, economically speaking (of some sort).

 

[AerodyManiac]

I highly doubt the PLA is going to be used. Cruel and cold-blooded it may be, but the Chinese government knows how terrible the consequences will be if it decides to bring out its army.

 

[Submerged]

I always found the PLA an ironic statement.

People's Liberation Army.....

Yeah. This case wouldn't really be what Hong Kong citizens wanted to be liberated from.

I don't think the PLA would be used either, but it wouldn't come as a massive surprise if it did. Although I do wonder if any part of the PLA would supplement the HK Police force. That would be one way of underhandness to quieten down the issue.

 

[BobK]

I highly doubt the PLA is going to be used. Cruel and cold-blooded it may be, but the Chinese government knows how terrible the consequences will be if it decides to bring out its army.

Just what would those terrible consequences be? Seriously? Are you willing to give up your new iPhone over this? Is anybody?

 

[AerodyManiac]

Just what would those terrible consequences be? Seriously? Are you willing to give up your new iPhone over this? Is anybody?

Do you really think the international community is just going to sit there and do nothing if the PLA is to be brought out? The US Department of State is responding to the movement already. Do you really think that the US government is not going to take further actions once the PLA is used?
Also, there may be some people who may not be willing to go out onto the streets, but I am sure more than double of how many people there are on Central's streets right now will run onto the streets without a slight hint of doubt to support the protesters once the PLA's brought out.

 

[Dotini]

I highly doubt the PLA is going to be used. Cruel and cold-blooded it may be, but the Chinese government knows how terrible the consequences will be if it decides to bring out its army.

Of course using lethal force to quell illegal protest is to avoided. But it's real dilemma for the government, which definitely does not want to do anything to encourage separatist or democratic movements from Uyghurs, Tibetans, Taiwanese, et al.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It's all going tremendously politely, we're told, protestors have put up signs apologising for the inconvenience, have a recycling schedule and are keeping off the lawns.

 

[BobK]

Do you really think the international community is just going to sit there and do nothing if the PLA is to be brought out?

To be honest, yes in the long run they'll do nothing. Words and nothing more.

The US Department of State is responding to the movement already. Do you really think that the US government is not going to take further actions once the PLA is used?

What would you say the nature of this "further action" might be? My guess is they'll say "Bad China, mustn't do that" and that's about it.

 

[Robin]

I am pretty sure that again, under the terms of the one country two systems agreement, the army has no legal right to intervene in Hong Kong civil disturbances. They are there purely to defend the territory and the responsibility for public order lies solely with the Police.

If they were to use the PLA they are conveniently located here....!

That Army barracks has to have the best view of any Army base in the world!

 

[Submerged]

While the Army has no "legal" right to intervene, it doesn't mean that they won't intervene if it makes Beijing happy for them to intervene.

To be honest, the US is just blabbing a lot of noise and won't do anything when it comes to game-time. They cannot. China effectively owns the US through debt.

The UK.... I just wonder if there's anything in the 1997 handover statement that would allow the UK to at least publicity shame Beijing into making the election "free" from Beijing's meddling. Thing is, Beijing could just have simply just allowed the sense of free speech and freedom to choose as well as vote for whomever candidate they wanted to choose. But what they could have done is to funnel money to only the supporters of Beijing themselves and just make it much harder for those who were not pally with Beijing to campaign through secret taxes or bribes to other businesses/political members.

Beijing as a country is still corrupt when it comes to the people in power so I cannot see why they didn't do it that way.


EDIT:

Just saw this on the BBC running news commentary:

"10:49:
The White House has responded to those who have signed a petition to the US government about the Hong Kong protests. It says the US believes the "legitimacy of the chief executive will be greatly enhanced if the Basic Law's ultimate aim of selection of the chief executive by universal suffrage is fulfilled and if the election provides the people of Hong Kong a genuine choice of candidates"

Well, why did the American public even think about creating a petition to the US Government to weigh in on it? The US doesn't really have any particular links to HK apart from economic issues. It would have been a more powerful message if the UK government got petitioned to comment on it, which they had already done that.

I also just quickly looked at the link to the petition itself. Well, it certainly seems like someone doesn't quite understand how the situation is like here. Tienanmen, when you look at the history of it, was only special because it was captured by the media with photography during that time. During that time, there were even more violent crackdown on protests. At the time, the UK and the US didn't do anything to safeguard the freedom of the people, mainly because it was a Chinese issue that at the time, could only be sorted out by the Chinese.

The main issue now is that there is a disparity between what Beijing wants for the rest of the country and to get HK to agree to, but HK residents doesn't want to submit to the rules and regulations which would lose their freedom to protest and keep their Special Administrative Region system going.

Yes, there could be an issue of armed response to the situation, however that is not likely to actually happen as China knows the rest of the world is looking at Hong Kong itself. It has to tread a relatively fine political line.

 

[Omnis]

Hong Kong doesn't need democracy. What they clearly need is anarchy and self-organization, separate from the Chinese politburo.

 

[Liquid]

Much like with Russia, there's not much the West (certainly Europe, specifically the UK in this case) can or will do. There's too much money, trade and arms at risk.

It's going to be interesting to see where China, mainland China, goes from here. And I mean in general, not just because of these recent protests. There are always protests in China somewhere but because it's Hong Kong, there is a vested interest in the outcome.

How long will the SAR and its autonomy truly last? The gradual opening of China since Nixon's 1972 visit have steadily released the grip communism has over there thanks to leaders such as Deng Xiaoping. But it is very gradual and steady. The CPC is very much in charge and over time we could see either the SARs of Macau and Hong Kong disappear and be fully annexed into PR China or a gradual liberalisation of mainland China.