The Hong Kong Thread

Liquid
Much like with Russia, there's not much the West (certainly Europe, specifically the UK in this case) can or will do. There's too much money, trade and arms at risk.

It's going to be interesting to see where China, mainland China, goes from here. And I mean in general, not just because of these recent protests. There are always protests in China somewhere but because it's Hong Kong, there is a vested interest in the outcome.

How long will the SAR and its autonomy truly last? The gradual opening of China since Nixon's 1972 visit have steadily released the grip communism has over there thanks to leaders such as Deng Xiaoping. But it is very gradual and steady. The CPC is very much in charge and over time we could see either the SARs of Macau and Hong Kong disappear and be fully annexed into PR China or a gradual liberalisation of mainland China.
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For your consideration: http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/09/30/china-is-a-paper-tiger/
 
BobK
What would you say the nature of this "further action" might be? My guess is they'll say "Bad China, mustn't do that" and that's about it.
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Look at Ukraine. The US government is already imposing sanctions on Russia for providing military assistance to pro-Russian activists, despite Russia denying providing any help to the rebels. And the fact that the US is planning to return to Asia-Pacific in terms of military has shown that the US is going to pay more attention to the situation in Asia, specifically the Chinese government. If the PLA was really brought out this time, I'd expect further trade restrictions from the US government, to say the least. But definitely not words without any actual action.
 
GT HP Nut
Look at Ukraine. The US government is already imposing sanctions on Russia for providing military assistance to pro-Russian activists, despite Russia denying providing any help to the rebels. And the fact that the US is planning to return to Asia-Pacific in terms of military has shown that the US is going to pay more attention to the situation in Asia, specifically the Chinese government. If the PLA was really brought out this time, I'd expect further trade restrictions from the US government, to say the least. But definitely not words without any actual action.
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You should ask the Ukraine people how well US sanctions is working out for their situation. Frezzing the assets of a few private citizens and some travel embargos a few more citizens isn't doing anything for their cause. The people of Hong Kong should expect the same kind of response. The current president of the USA doesn't want to be involved in any international issues.
 
fatkrakr
You should ask the Ukraine people how well US sanctions is working out for their situation. Frezzing the assets of a few private citizens and some travel embargos a few more citizens isn't doing anything for their cause. The people of Hong Kong should expect the same kind of response. The current president of the USA doesn't want to be involved in any international issues.
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Apples and oranges.

The agreement isn't with the US in any case, it's with the British. The US might have enjoyed HK as much as anyone else up until '99 but they weren't involved in the handover (at least not front-of-house). I read earlier that Chris Patten (former HK Governor) believes that the system the Chinese are implementing goes against the handover agreement.
 
TenEightyOne
I read earlier that Chris Patten (former HK Governor) believes that the system the Chinese are implementing goes against the handover agreement.
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But who will stop them? Mwahahaha.

I don't think we'll see John Major calling up Beijing saying "Erm, you violated clause 34, section XVI..."
 
Liquid
But who will stop them? Mwahahaha.

I don't think we'll see John Major calling up Beijing saying "Erm, you violated clause 34, section XVI..."
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Rhe handover was Blair's job I think but we should send John Major too, just in case. @prisonermonkeys has an equivalent list of Aussie politicians ready to be parachuted (with or without parachutes) into notably dangerous conflicts, we could put a party together.
 
I'm giving Major credit because Bliar just swooped in on anything that was already in motion by the previous government. The handover had been planned and arranged as early as Thatcher.

If Bliar phoned up Beijing, we'd probably end up handing over Gibraltar and the Falklands.
 
Liquid
I'm giving Major credit because Bliar just swooped in on anything that was already in motion by the previous government. The handover had been planned and arranged as early as Thatcher.

If Bliar phoned up Beijing, we'd probably end up handing over Gibraltar and the Falklands.
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Fair point, and the governor was still Patten (a firm Tory fixture) up until the end. Blair would probably size up the HK situation and invade Uzbekistan without warning before engaging on a sparkling after-dinner speaking tour to help sell the book.

EDIT: I knew I'd seen it somewhere; Patten accuses the Chinese of 'reneging on their commitments', on the BBC but a little light on detail.
 
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Liquid
How long will the SAR and its autonomy truly last? The gradual opening of China since Nixon's 1972 visit have steadily released the grip communism has over there thanks to leaders such as Deng Xiaoping. But it is very gradual and steady. The CPC is very much in charge and over time we could see either the SARs of Macau and Hong Kong disappear and be fully annexed into PR China or a gradual liberalisation of mainland China.
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Deng Xiaoping was the most reformist leader China ever had, he setup the free economic zones in Shenzhen and Guangdong and as you said built ties with the US. When the handover was drawn up it was based on the prediction that China would continue on this path to capitalism and democracy (Hong Kong would do so in tandem) and ultimately at the end of 50 years the mainland and Hong Kong would merge together smoothly.

But it didn't happen. Following Deng, who in later years became somewhat a trouble maker to the CPC, China went in the opposite direction... at least politically. The communism element has actually ramped up and this is why the mainland is now reluctant to give Hong Kong what it wants. China has managed to 'do' capitalism without being capitalist.

Strong communism is seen to be needed now more than ever in China due to it's economic boom cooling. The government has been reigning everything back in to not only keep the wheels turning but also keep the peace because their biggest fear is a billion people with nothing to do.
 
@Robin, it would be better to say that Deng Xiaoping was the most reformist leader in the current party that they had, not that China ever had in their history. The party has been there since 1949, ruling China.

I believe the main reason why the current party mindset is to try and consolidate what they have and to change it to a more controlling state, is that for some reason, someone in the position of power has the heebie-jeebies about the more modern lifestyle of constant news and internet news. It sounds weird, but with the advent of the instant, 24/7 internet culture that happens now and the ability of people to get around the restrictions, it means that the party will eventually see a breaking down of their own power in the country. Also with the rise of income and the rise of cost going above inflation (eventually!) it has meant that the bigger middle class people in China are starting to point out that things aren't what they should be for their lifestyle.

Its certainly going to be an interesting 20-30 years for China that's for sure.

Also, the territorial disputes that China keeps having with Vietnam, Taiwan(!), Philippines and Japan, along with the language that their Foreign Office uses, just smacks of reaffirming their power against other countries and worries about their own mainland politics not quite going the way they want to go.

Well, if you can't seem to balance the need of minorities that feel that they have to hold a peaceful protest and just get killed regardless (Xinjiang), carry out one-day trial of a major multinational (GSK) without allowing the defense to defend themselves with enough preparation time, putting anti-corruption seekers (numerous) in jail without a proper trial even though they are the only ones that are actually highlighting corruption in previous and current party members..... And also ordering student ringleaders of the Tienanmen (who are now 20+ years older!) to be under house arrest every year during the time of the year the Tienanmen student protest happens!

China is certainly going to have an interesting period eventually. I just dearly hope that the public eventually forces something that will lead to a better life for them, without having to take freedom and/or liberty away. Only issue is.... most people now have money and they feel comfortable with what they have, the materialistic lifestyle. Why change and ask for freedom to vote, when that could be taken away?
 
So, during today's afternoon (3/10), protesters at Mongkok and Causeway Bay (two of the occupied places) were attacked by men wearing masks who were against the movement. The police were criticized by the organizers and protesters for not arresting any of the attackers, despite the violent actions. Rumour has it that the attackers are actually local gangsters.
One of the organizers, HKFS, decided to stop holding dialogues (which were being planned before the attacks) with the government regarding the political reform and the movement, as the government allowed gangsters to attack the peaceful protesters today, it said.

Relevant links:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29475849

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29481493
 
Yeah things escalated pretty badly in Mong Kok today. Now Hongkongers are fighting with each other and this could descend into a regional civil war.

Yes there were rumours that the people involved were mafia or paid by the mainland but there are many people who are genuinely pro Beijing and also pro 'going back to work'. With all the major transport arteries paralysed and the holiday over things are going to get tense because Hong Kong's prosperity is plummeting by the day.
 
That video was on the day the riot people shot some tear gas. Since that day, nothing had happened, apart from this Triad attack as such.

Its a difficult situation when both parties are bring stubborn. Beijing knows that people will need to feed themselves so they are able to withstand it far more than the protestors as they have the means to get what they want and need with regards to food and water.

Also, its always going to be a case of serious slagging match in the media between both.
 
During yesterday's afternoon, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivered a speech on television, during which he requested the organizers and protesters to...
  1. ensure that the entrance of the Government Headquarters in Tamar is clear by Monday, so that the 3,000 government personnel can go to work smoothly, and the government can continue its daily operations. (Some of the protesters were blocking the entrance to the Government HQ.)
  2. stop occupying the roads in Wanchai and Central & Western District, so that schools in these 2 districts can resume on Monday.
If the above requests are not met, 'the government and the police have the responsibility and determination to take all necessary actions, and restore social order', he said. The news have interpreted this as the government's ultimatum. If the organizers and protesters refuse to cooperate and leave, the police will use force for clearance at any time.

In response to the government's message, Benny Tai, one of the leaders of the movement, has asked the protesters to leave the Government Headquarters, while HKFS has offered conditions for dialogues with the government to resume.

Later, some of the protesters in Mongkok announced that they would leave Mongkok and head back to Admiralty. Protesters surrounding the CE's office also decided to do the same thing.

Meanwhile, the Education Bureau announced that schools in Wanchai and C&W District will resume tomorrow, i.e. Monday.

(Based on local news reports, I did the translation above.)

Relevant link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29494885
 
After over 74 days of occupying, the police finally announced earlier that they would be clearing the protest site at Admiralty today (11/12), and they were confident that they would be able to finish the clearance and have the occupied roads reopened by midnight (local time). The barricades have already been removed a few hours ago, and the police are now taking the remaining protestors away and making arrests.

Student leaders of the movement have decided to stay at the protest site and wait for arrest, saying that they will 'remain at the Admiralty site as long as they can but will not offer violent resistance', and that 'the civil disobedience is not over'. Pan-democratic legislators have also decided to stay and wait for arrest.

Meanwhile, the UK's Foreign Affairs Commitee has asked the UK government to offer a tougher response to China's refusal to allow the UK's lawmakers to visit HK and investigate HK's democracy progress.

Relevant link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-30426346
 
I'm guessing that ultimately, nothing really happened out of this.

Apart from Taiwan starting to really dig deep against China's desire to assimilate Taiwan to Mainland China's policies.
 
Submerged
I'm guessing that ultimately, nothing really happened out of this.
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Nothing really could come out of this... think about who they are going up against, pretty much the worlds biggest superpower. No country is going to stand up to them even if China imposed more reform before the 50 years is up. Also China hasn't broken the letter of the agreement, probably just the spirit of it.
 
That it may be.

However I did find it immensely amusing when China was basically having to tell the Americans to get their noses out of the business.

Although the China's response to the UK wasn't particularly great, considering the history of it all.

Eventually, something will come out of it. What it is, we won't know until later.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if the HK gov't has been expressively told by Beijing to put the ringleaders of the protesters under house arrest next time there is a civil disturbance. Its a classic Beijing move to do that on a sensitive day and/or potential social development is occuring.
 
Submerged
Although I wouldn't be surprised if the HK gov't has been expressively told by Beijing to put the ringleaders of the protesters under house arrest next time there is a civil disturbance. Its a classic Beijing move to do that on a sensitive day and/or potential social development is occuring.
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I don't think the Chinese government is going to do that. Doing so will only lead to more protesters coming out to the streets and the media in HK and overseas reporting it, which won't help if there already is a protest going on. However, I am rather sure they won't be allowed to cross Chinese borders for the rest of their lives. It seems rather apparent, considering what happened to the students leaders earlier when they tried to go to Beijing to have their voices heard by the Chinese government.
 
@GT HP Nut, I had forgotten that the protest leaders attempted to go to Beijing for the meeting to voice their concerns. Honestly though, it was always going to happen anyway as the Chinese government has consistently always practice that form of "well, I don't like you, so you're not coming in" policy.

They also did that to the UK party that had already been investigating the HK issue during the HK protests, when they attempted to go to Shanghai/Beijing for an meeting.

Honestly though, it just kinda smacks of immaturity.

However, I'm also a little bit concerned as well, as I'm not even sure if the UK has ever practiced that policy. They probably have in the past but it hasn't been given a big media spotlight on it.
 
So it all might kick off again...

Hong Kong vote reform: Security heightened amid fears of mass protests
Police on high alert as hundreds gather outside government buildings while legislators begin debate on Beijing-backed electoral reform proposals

Hong-Kong-1_3343950b.jpg


Hong Kong lawmakers began a debate on Wednesday on a Beijing-backed electoral reform proposal that will define the city's democratic future and could trigger new protests in the Chinese-controlled city.

The former British colony has reinforced security after mass protests crippled parts of the Asian financial hub late last year, presenting China's ruling Communist Party with one of its biggest political challenges in decades.

Hundreds of people converged outside government buildings and the Legislative Council issued an "amber alert" before the crucial vote on the reform package, which is expected by Friday.

Hong-Kong-2_3343951b.jpg


The final round of a poll conducted by three Hong Kong universities showed 47 percent of respondents backed the reform proposal, which would allow a direct vote for Hong Kong's next leader in 2017, but only from pre-screened, pro-Beijing candidates, while 38 percent were against. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Police were deployed inside the council complex overnight, and police sources said more than 5,000 specially trained officers would be on standby, while some roads leading to government buildings were closed.

"This morning I got a very long and well-written letter, which was from a student. (They) hope I will support the proposal," said democrat Ronny Tong, who was close to tears.

"We have worked so hard all these years," said Chan, who was waving a Chinese flag. Pro-Beijing supporters also played the Chinese national anthem through loudspeakers.

Legislators started debate on the blueprint on Wednesday afternoon. Opponents of the plan say they want a genuinely democratic vote for Hong Kong's next leader.

Pro-Beijing supporters easily outnumbered democracy activists and, with temperatures hovering around 30 Celsius (86 Fahrenheit), crowd numbers had dwindled by early afternoon.

One pro-democracy protester wearing a black T-shirt which read "Reject Fake Suffrage", held a black-and-white banner that declared: "Overthrow the Communist dictatorship".

Inside the legislature, democrats stood in a row with small signs with crosses on them as they pledged to vote down the plan.
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...And the reform proposal was vetoed.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33179247?OCID=fbasia&ocid=socialflow_facebook

Although the outcome was expected, the proportion of support-to-against votes was not. Minutes before the voting, one of the pro-Beijing legislators asked to halt the proceedings, which was rejected by the head. Then suddenly, most of the pro-Beijing legislators left the chamber, in the hope that it would cause the session to fail to come to a close. However, some of the pro-Beijing legislators did not follow, thus causing there to be enough legislators for the voting to proceed. And it eventually did, with the support-to-against ratio at 8:28, much smaller than what was originally expected. A chairman of one of the pro-Beijing parties, the DAB, admitted afterwards that there were some mistakes in communication between the pro-Beijing legislators, while members of the Liberal Party, one of the parties that remained in the chamber, remained adamant that it was not their fault, saying that they have no obligations to follow other parties and leave the chamber.

Right now the pro-Beijing legislators are the laughingstock of society, it seems.

And although it is rather late to ask this question, I can't resist asking: what is your stance on the reform proposal? Are you in support of it or against it? Personally I myself am in favour of the LegCo passing it, although it'd be nice to see the Central Government offering something even more democratic after the pan-democratic camp's endeavours.
 
From what I've read about it, my biggest sticking point would be that candidates have to be approved by Beijing. You're not going to get much reform that way.
 
DK
From what I've read about it, my biggest sticking point would be that candidates have to be approved by Beijing. You're not going to get much reform that way.
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But what if we manage to get someone that is both approved by the Central government and the majority of the public to be elected? As far as I know, some of the pan-democrats actually fit that criteria. At least he will be better than what we've got right now as the CE in terms of support from the public. :indiff:
 
Perhaps Robin.'s post above would be better suited to a whole new thread about 'Hong Kong Independence'? I've always wondered about the necessity to create such a thread, considering it's become a heated topic among the locals, but I never dared to start one, as I doubt I will be able to start the thread with an introduction and insight interesting enough to arouse people's attention and provoke more meaningful discussions. Besides, it doesn't seem that it's such an important issue worldwide.

Anyway, to stay (a bit) on topic...
I don't think the central government should interpret the Basic Law again and even before the court issues its verdict as a way to eradicate voices for independence in society, since it would be seen as another step towards undermining the legislative autonomy of Hong Kong, and even more because it might actually encourage more people to join the pro-independence camp, after seeing what's being done to the legislature. Instead, it should stress on the public opinion that around 60% of citizens interviewed are against independence.
Now, regarding the whole oath-taking row, I personally think that the 2 legislators did wrongly when using a derogatory word for China. Pursuing for independence is one matter, insulting a country is another, and the latter does not help you achieve the former. Also, they should have entered the Legislative Council before discussing about independence, as using a derogatory word during your oath does not actually accomplish anything. All it does is make you look rather immature. Some people may object to my last sentence, but then I doubt the people voted them into the legislature purely because they wanted to see them do that.
 

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