The Hong Kong Thread

@GT HP Nut I was thinking last night that a simple renaming of this thread to something like 'Hong Kong Independence' would suffice as it's all to do with the same basic topic. Maybe a mod or the OP could do that?

The legislators certainly did themselves no favors with the way they took the oath. Irrespective of how they feel that isn't the place for bad language and nothing has ever been achieved by mouthing off. If anything they have given China a good reason to further reinforce it's grip citing how the place would descend into anarchy if those kind of people were in government. They could have accomplished more by actually doing their job.
 
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Hong Kong lawmakers disqualified from taking office for not pledging allegiance to China

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The sad thing is if Britain didn't have the 99 year lease and just had it outright, Hong Kong would probably be independent by now, the Majority of Hong Kong citizens want it, but under China you know they will never allow it without violence.
 
mustafur
The sad thing is if Britain didn't have the 99 year lease and just had it outright, Hong Kong would probably be independent by now,
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While I can't say that this is completely wrong, I'd say that it's actually impossible, as 2 of the 3 major parts of Hong Kong were ceded to the UK at 1860, which is quite some time before the Communist Party took control of China. A bit of googling and Wikipedia also shows that it was impractical to separate HK Island and Kowloon (which were supposed to be ceded forever) from the New Territories (which only had a 99-year lease), due to natural resources and stuff like that.

I'd say that Hong Kong lost its chance to become independent, when China asked the UN to remove Hong Kong (as well as Macao) from the list of colonial territories which would be granted independence, due to them stating that the cession was a result of 'unequal treaties', and the UN passed the resolution as well.

Most of what I've said can be found in the 'Overview' part of this Wikipedia article.

mustafur
the Majority of Hong Kong citizens want it,
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Not quite. As I've quoted before, around 60% of citizens interviewed are against independence in an opinion poll (if you believe in that, after Brexit and Trump's unexpected triumph), with almost 70% supporting the 'One Country, Two Systems' principle after 2047. I can't find an English source for that though.

mustafur
but under China you know they will never allow it without violence.
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I don't think Hong Kong citizens can do that even with violence. After all, those who want independence are against one of the biggest military in the world, and the most they've got are just a few bamboo sticks, masks, and umbrellas. This is also one of the main reasons I don't think Hong Kong independence is feasible.
 
...And the government is planning to unseat 4 more pro-democracy lawmakers through Judicial Review.

This time it's just outrageous. Unlike the previous 2, none of them insulted the country, or did anything that promotes Hong Kong independence during their oaths. The most they did was just raise their intonation, or hold a yellow umbrella. It appears that the government is aiming to strip the pro-democracy legislators of their veto power. It's really obvious, when there is also one pro-establishment legislator who omitted a part in his oath but didn't get unseated. I think this will drive more people who are already dissatisfied with the government to the pro-independence side.

Anyway, what is our CE smoking right now? Give me some of that!
 
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Yeah it's one thing to kick out those two because they frankly made a total embarrassment of themselves but using all this as an excuse to purge others it's taking it a bit far.
 
Lol if China thinks this will stop the situation.

In a country with free press people are not stupid.
 
20 years ago today after 156 years of British rule Hong Kong was handed back to China.

In 2047 the 50 year 'One Country Two Systems' treaty will expire, at the time it felt like an eternity into the future, now it's nearly half gone! No one knows what will happen or even what type country China or Hong Kong will be.

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This may not seem particularly pertinent when you consider the thread's title, but I thought some of you may be interested to learn about this, and I don't know where to put it:

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...joint-declaration-hong-kong-no-longer-has-any

“Now that Hong Kong has returned to the motherland for 20 years the Sino-British Joint Declaration, as a historical document, no longer has any realistic meaning,” Lu was quoted by Xinhua as saying at a press conference.

“It also does not have any binding power on how the Chinese central government administers Hong Kong. Britain has no sovereignty, no governing power and no supervising power over Hong Kong. I hope relevant parties will take note of this reality.”
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Honestly, I was a little bit taken aback when the spokesperson said this. I was expecting the Ministry to say something along the lines of 'we will solemnly stay true to what we promised in the joint-declaration, but outsiders should not comment on China's own issues and politics', instead of saying that 'the joint-declaration is a thing of the past and has no real meaning'. After all, they did sign the declaration and promise to adhere to it!

But then maybe I shouldn't have been surprised, seeing as this is the CPC we're talking about. :indiff:

Robin
No one knows what will happen or even what type country China or Hong Kong will be.
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Right now I'm not holding my hopes high. With the US turning away from its usual allies and starting to embrace even more diplomatic cooperation with the likes of Russia and China, I can't help but think that China will soon be able to do anything as it pleases with Hong Kong. Maybe more relatable is that I also remember reading from a column somewhere which says that with Brexit decided, the UK will have to depend on trade partners like China more heavily, and this will place the UK at an even more disadvantaged position when it comes to asking China to fulfill its promises made regarding Hong Kong's development. The independence advocates aren't helping either, as the biggest thing that I think will result from this is the central government tightening its grip on Hong Kong in regards to its democratic development and freedom of speech.

Personally I think that the 'One Country, Two Systems' arrangement is best for HK even after 2047, as I see no chances of China turning into a truly democratic country by then, and independence simply isn't an option under the communists' ruling. (To me, it seems even worse than 'One Country, Two Systems'.) But with the way things are currently headed, Hong Kong being completely integrated with China in terms of political systems seems like the most likely option once the deadline approaches.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. :indiff:
 
To say the treaty it's now irrelevant is bizarre because surely it would be in China's interest to use more moderate language to not cause another umbrella nightmare. Also the treaty was not some general guide scribbled on a napkin, it was a legally binding treaty under international law overseen by the UN.

The whole tone of the trip was quite firm, I was just expecting the usual collaboration language being used but it was bordering on threats. Basically, stop misbehaving! It was not so much a celebration as a reminder of who's boss. After 2047 continuation of 'Two Systems' would be the best realistic outcome, China could easily revoke everything and integrate it totally into China.
 
Robin
To say the treaty it's now irrelevant is bizarre because surely it would be in China's interest to use more moderate language to not cause another umbrella nightmare. Also the treaty was not some general guide scribbled on a napkin, it was a legally binding treaty under international law overseen by the UN.

The whole tone of the trip was quite firm, I was just expecting the usual collaboration language being used but it was bordering on threats. Basically, stop misbehaving! It was not so much a celebration as a reminder of who's boss. After 2047 continuation of 'Two Systems' would be the best realistic outcome, China could easily revoke everything and integrate it totally into China.
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What's anybody going to do about it if China completely abrogates the "legally binding" treaty? Nobody's going to war over it, and I doubt anyone would put sanctions with any real bite in place.

Sorry but that's just the reality of the situation, as I see it. And I agree it sucks for Hong Kong.
 
GT HP Nut
But then maybe I shouldn't have been surprised, seeing as this is the CPC we're talking about. :indiff:
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The CCP's integrity is about on par with some of the most deceitful people I've met in life, though that's no surprise.

But hey, I think Canada is willing to accept some more HKers. I think Vancouver is considered one of the best places in the world to have Chinese food. So we got you covered on that part.
 
BobK
What's anybody going to do about it if China completely abrogates the "legally binding" treaty?
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Absolutely nothing, no country can afford to not be friends with China in this day and age. Hong Kong just so happens to be situated right next to one of the most powerful nations on earth.
 
Robin
Absolutely nothing, no country can afford to not be friends with China in this day and age. Hong Kong just so happens to be situated right next to one of the most powerful nations on earth.
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It's also a region of that country, presuming you mean China.
 
1241Penguin
The CCP's integrity is about on par with some of the most deceitful people I've met in life, though that's no surprise.
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It's a bit pathetic, really. Sometimes the CPC decides to promise you something and later treats it as if it's nothing (as shown in this case), other times it just decides not to bother with lying at all and just go full on bastard. I still remember listening to a talk in which the speaker stated that Mao Zedong said that he wanted rule of man, not rule of law to be applied in China.

1241Penguin
But hey, I think Canada is willing to accept some more HKers. I think Vancouver is considered one of the best places in the world to have Chinese food. So we got you covered on that part.
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I doubt the Canadian locals would be anywhere near pleased with that. :lol:

At least I wouldn't if I were a local. :D
 
...And the irreversible harm has been done.

If you can read Chinese, here’s an article by the BBC giving you a comprehensive look into this matter, or for those of you who cannot and are unaware of what’s happening:
The amendments to the Rules of Procedure are proposed by the pro-establishment (Beijing) camp, in hopes of drastically reducing the ability of the pan-democrats to filibuster, so as to ‘resume the Legislative Council’s normal functioning’, to quote the pro-establishment’s words. Pan-democrats argued that this move is to prepare the LegCo for upcoming bills proposed by the government that will be even more controversial (for instance, the Article 23, which some worry will provide a legal means to control what people can criticize about the government), and allow them to be passed with no effective objection from the democratic legislators. Originally it was practically impossible to pass them due to the separate voting mechanism, but with 4 of its legislators disqualified, the pan-democratic camp completely lost its veto power, the amendments were proposed, and unfortunately, now passed.


Personally I think while the pro-establishment camp is primarily the culprit behind this move, some of the pan-democrats, especially the radical ones, should take some of the blame as well. After all, the radical democrats did filibuster whenever a motion from the government was proposed and they didn’t get what they wanted (still remember the universal retirement pension scheme?), so you can’t completely blame the pro-establishment camp for being fed up with all the filibustering. Besides, if you do absolutely point the finger at them, then applying the same rationale and logic, the argument that radical advocates should be solely responsible for the rise of HK’s independence movement also stands, because what the government (be it Chinese or Hong Kong) did that contributed to the increasing dissent should be discounted as well!

With that said, however, I still think the pro-establishment camp did not provide reasonably strong grounds for this move. After all, what does raising the amount of legislators required to set up a government-official-investigation commitee have anything to do with curbing filibustering? It just reeks of a rushed attempt to handicap the pan-democratic camp’s rights to voice out the demands of the majority as the minority in the Council, and this is due to an unjust establishment and rulebook. Unfortunately, the pro-establishment camp has succeeded in this, and the only remaining hope I can put my faith in is the pan-democratic camp taking all 3 seats back in next year’s by-election, and that itself is already a tall order, if not an unachievable feat. :indiff:

If there’s a person who is living in Hong Kong or is bothered enough to follow the politics here reading this, I’d love to have somebody disagree with me or correct me, and I’d love to give every effort to change his opinion and make him vote democratic next year. Unfortunately, the divide between the two sides is getting larger, and both sides seem too entrenched in their own opinions and stances to embrace any differing opinions, which just makes bridging the gap virtually impossible for the centrists.

I hope I’m wrong in this regard, but this city is barely beginning its dive into the worst, and I don’t think I’m alone in thinking so.
 
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My guess is they are panicking because they know with each passing day CCP's control gets stronger and the means of democracy isn't working, considering the CCP doesn't even believe in it and they have all the power.
 
This thread has been left in dust for around a year and a half, and I have decided not to post anything in here unless something really big is happening for me (due to the seemingly little interest here and the little time I had), but this could just be the one that deserves some discussion, considering the magnitude of some people's reaction...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48237316

To give you a really brief idea of what's happening, essentially it's the government wanting to amend a bill regarding extradition of criminals to establish a legally-based procedure for extraditions from Hong Kong to other regions that have not signed a mutual agreement with it, and circumvent the usual part of discussion and debates in the LegCo. If she feels the need to, the CE would issue a certificate to begin 'a legal process for the suspect to be sent to court for a hearing and decision', and if the court finds the evidence sufficient and appropriate, then it is pretty much confirmed that the suspect would be extradited, although I'm not sure about the latter part. The government claims that this amendment is to fix an existing legal loophole and help provide the foundation for the extradition of a murderer who killed his girlfriend while on vacation in Taiwan and subsequently escaped to HK. One of the officials said that one of the loopholes is that putting extradition matters on LegCo for discussion would attract widespread media reports, and the suspect would've fled before the police can arrest him.

So far the democratic camp's biggest complaint is that the amendment has not excluded political suspects or mainland China from the list of crimes or countries applicable, so there is such possibility of HK being used as a place for persecution of individuals that the CCP sees a problem with, or HK losing its immunity against the enforcement of mainland laws. While they have suggested to the government such changes, the government has refused, and I have forgotten the reason for the refusal already.

If you have seen some recordings of the conferences, it's quite a commotion, as it's practically people trying to break through layers of human barricades, which are moving towards another position occupied by the democrats. As of now I've seen some of the most moderate democrats cussing at our leader in the parliament while being forced out of the conference chamber, and I won't be surprised at all if things escalate given the way we're headed.

One of the key differences that sets this bill apart from the usual chaotic end-the-filibuster-and-just-pass-it situation is that some of the people from the other end of the political aisle, especially from backgrounds of commerce, actually had some kind of doubt and criticized the bill as some businessmen could potentially be extradited for commercial crimes, but they're highly unlikely to vote against it, especially after the admonitory talk Beijing held for them privately the other day. Sure, you could've said that the same applied to many motions and bills by the government, but then this is one of the rare instances that the democratic camp actually garnered more backing and support from the general public and the other side than usual despite having no veto power.

The bill will be voted on on earliest the 5th of June, and for those of you who're really, really concerned about what the actual bill amendment wrote, here is the link to the amendment:

https://legco.gov.hk/yr18-19/english/bills/b201903291.pdf

And the respective original bills:

https://www.elegislation.gov.hk/hk/cap503

https://www.elegislation.gov.hk/hk/cap525

I've had a brief read through them, but unfortunately my subpar comprehension skills in both Chinese and English meant that I had difficulty understanding most of either of the 2 versions. :lol: One of the things I'm uncertain is which of the crimes enlisted in Schedule 1 of the 2nd link (i.e. Cap. 503) resembles what the CCP often uses to prosecute those 'endangering state security' (their words, not mine), so it'd be great if somebody who knows a thing or two about Common Law matters can answer my question.

I'm probably talking too much now (at least for a person who knows next to nothing on this matter), so I'll just end here.
 
Bit late but anyway: www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/11196494

Huge protests in Hong Kong with some sources saying over a million people have came out to protest a new extradition Law, people are scared this will mean that anything they do such as criticism of the CCP will result in forced extradition to the Mainland for punishment, the Pro Bejing Parliment Majority for Hong Kong is likely to go unchallenged in trying to implement it as the opposition hasn't got the numbers despite what looks to be a majority of support.

Dangerious Times for Hong Kong.
 
This comes to the surprise of no-one. The "One China, Two Systems" policy was always a thin veneer just to placate the public as China reasserted its grip on Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

Actually, what is the situation in Macau in comparison to Hong Kong? Portugal returned it to China slightly later (1999) than with the UK and Hong Kong but it is also a Special Administrative Region that retains its legacy economy from the colonial days.
 
Liquid
This comes to the surprise of no-one. The "One China, Two Systems" policy was always a thin veneer just to placate the public as China reasserted its grip on Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

Actually, what is the situation in Macau in comparison to Hong Kong? Portugal returned it to China slightly later (1999) than with the UK and Hong Kong but it is also a Special Administrative Region that retains its legacy economy from the colonial days.
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From what I know it's fairly Similar just a smaller region, it's basically the Las Vegas of China as gambling is illegal on the Mainland and in Hong Kong, but from what I know being critical of the CCP etc is still allowed, it's kinda like an extension of Hong Kong, given the proximity to it and I think you don't need to go through a Border checkpoint if you go from Hong Kong to Macau(by Ferry) Like you would if you came from the mainland.
 
mustafur
From what I know it's fairly Similar just a smaller region, it's basically the Las Vegas of China as gambling is illegal on the Mainland and in Hong Kong, but from what I know being critical of the CCP etc is still allowed, it's kinda like an extension of Hong Kong, given the proximity to it and I think you don't need to go through a Border checkpoint if you go from Hong Kong to Macau(by Ferry) Like you would if you came from the mainland.
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There are border checkpoints by ferry or by car(yes you can drive from HK to Macau now), the freedom of speech is still in place in Macau, but no one knows how long it is going to last.

IMO, the one country two system thing will be completely gone around 2040s(just before 2047) Beijing will find ways to replace the Basic Law in both SARs with something similar to the mainland system.
 
@AerodyManiac

I have a little bit of concern for your well-being here. It's wonderful that you've come and shared your view here, but I hope that you've been stepping carefully.

I have to say from my own perspective that Hong Kong really did feel like a special place when I was there. It had a unique culture apart from the rest of mainland China, and I'd hate for it to lose that. It was charming for certain.
 
Is it just me, or does it strike me as more likely that HK and Macau will become nothing more than glorified "vacation islands" by 2050 for China?
 
I don't think Honk Kong can be properly integrated into the mainland ever without the CCP losing control, They sure as hell don't want these kind of protests spilling into Shenzhen etc.

They got away with it in 1989 due to a controlled media and a small subset of population joining in, but numbers like these are simply not controllable, keep in mind this is around halfway now untill the 2 systems model is supposed to end.
 

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