The '13 driver transfer discussion/speculation thread op updated 16/10

F1 fan · Jul 5, 2012

Yes, but the fact that he's British is all some people need to start linking him and Mclaren together. Some people are obviously unaware of the fact that mclaren have always chosen drivers on talent rather than nationality. They are probably also unaware that Mclaren took an interest in Vettel before they even considered Button.

peter_vod69 · Jul 5, 2012

I doubt Perez would be in the running for a McLaren seat while ever he has a Ferrari engine at his back. I also was under the impression that Rosberg was part of the "German Superteam" thing that Mercedes was trying to make happen. And Kobayashi? Don't get me wrong, I think he is a phenomenal overtaker, and probably the bravest driver in the field, but I think his somewhat inconsistent driving wouldn't be a good fit at McLaren.

Di Resta seems like a driver with a lot of potential in a car that doesn't have much.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 5, 2012

peter_vod69
I doubt Perez would be in the running for a McLaren seat while ever he has a Ferrari engine at his back.

Perez has a contract with Ferrari as one of their development drivers. The expectation is that he will one day race for Ferrari. However, while it is expected that Ferrari will drop Massa at the end of the year, some comments from the team - particularly Luca di Montezemolo - suggest that Perez will not join Ferrari in 2013. If this is the case, then there would be a way out of the Ferrari development contract, because Perez signed it with the understanding that he would one day race for Ferrari. If a seat at Ferrari becomes available and they do not offer it to him, they would not be holding up their end of the bargain, particularly since they would not be able to guarantee that another seat would come up. Ferrari cannot dictate the course of Perez's career and only take him on when they want him; to do so would be anti-competitive, because then a situation would arise where front-running teams take promising young drivers on-board with no intention of giving them a drive, but to simply prevent other teams from acquiring them.

And besides, Perez is backed by the single richest man in the world. If anybody could buy him out of the Ferrari contract to get him into the McLaren, it's Carlos Slim.

peter_vod69
I also was under the impression that Rosberg was part of the "German Superteam" thing that Mercedes was trying to make happen.

There has been talk that Mercedes could withdraw from the sport because of their dispute with Bernie over the Concorde Agreement. Mercedes have been reported as not liking the terms they have been offered, because they think they are worth more to the sport than what Bernie is willing to give them. If they do withdraw, Rosberg could easily find another team.

peter_vod69
Di Resta seems like a driver with a lot of potential in a car that doesn't have much.

What has di Resta done in a cast that does not have much potential? He has scored points every other race. That's hardly showing promise. Maybe the car has let him down, but this year, Force India have been very anonymous; they haven't achieved much. And with the highly-competitive midfield this year, I would argue that this is worse than Toro Rosso's situation, because at least Toro Rosso is getting some attention, even if it's for the wrong reasons.

zippy_the_cat · Jul 5, 2012

prisonermonkeys
Like any team, McLaren obligated to take the two best drivers available to them at any given time, but it Paul di Resta really the best driver available? Wouldnt it make more sense for McLaren to try for Rosberg or Perez or Kobayashi or even Alguersuari first? Hell, it wouldnt surprise me if they went for Kevin Magnussen, or tried to steal Romain Grosjean away from Lotus. All di Resta seems to have in his favour is a) he's British, and b) he drives for a Mercedes-powered team, neither of which are enough to justify taking him on.

Kobayashi? He has plenty of fans, but none of them run a top-4 team in F1. Has it escaped your attention that no one at the upper end of the industry rates the guy? Never mind that he has little marketing appeal (his English is only so-so, even for a Japanese, and what can he help sell in Japan that the government there would actually let off the boat?). Just from a driving standpoint, he's very inconsistent and sometimes does things on track that are wince-inducing.

Alguersuari has potential but RB made it known that they dumped last year's Toro Rosso combo because neither could really squeeze the last couple of tenths from the Pirellis. That's something RB would know for sure, from data, and it's not exactly a selling point to people at the sharp end of the grid.

Rosberg I assume is locked up so long as Merc is in the sport. They take a powder, yeah, he's better than Di Resta.

I've made my point before on Perez vs Di Resta. Perez is about 70 percent potential at this juncture. In Di Resta we see a more or less finished product. He's basically equivalent to Mark Webber in terms of being reliable and would likely deliver similar results in a top-4 team. Button-Di Resta is perhaps not the most inspiring of pairings but it would mean tranquility in the garage and the factory and I don't think that's something to undervalue. Contrast that with, say, the Alonso-Hamilton pairing, which on paper was no doubt the "best available" at the start of 2007 but obviously did not work, for whatever the reason.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 5, 2012

zippy_the_cat
Alguersuari has potential but RB made it known that they dumped last year's Toro Rosso combo because neither could really squeeze the last couple of tenths from the Pirellis. That's something RB would know for sure, from data, and it's not exactly a selling point to people at the sharp end of the grid.

That's Red Bull's opinion of them - and since they probably didn't want to let those drivers go only to see them picked up by a rival team and experience success, what's to say they wouldn't exaggerate their reasons for cutting them loose?

Besides, the tyres have fundamentally changed since 2011, and Alguersuari is Pirelli's test driver.

zippy_the_cat
I've made my point before on Perez vs Di Resta. Perez is about 70 percent potential at this juncture. In Di Resta we see a more or less finished product. He's basically equivalent to Mark Webber in terms of being reliable and would likely deliver similar results in a top-4 team.

Right, because if I was Martin Whitmarsh and I was looking to replace a proven championship winner, the first guy I would call is someone who might get the occasional win. I'd rather take a chance on someone who is mostly potential than downgrade to a driver who has no potential for further development.

After all, di Resta and Perez have been in the sport for the same amount of time. Di Resta is, in your own words "more of less the finished product", whereas Perez is "seventy percent potential". Considering that Perez has two podiums to his name, as opposed to di Resta's none, that's pretty good. And Perez is gentle on his tyres, just as Jenson Button is. In terms of future car development, having two similar drivers is only ever a good thing.

hawkeye122 · Jul 5, 2012

When push comes to shove, Jenson Button backs off, and prays that there is some sort of Weather/Yellow Flag occurrence. As far as Racecraft goes, Button is fairly lackluster. He doesn't pull off the same kind of moves as Alonso, or Hamilton, or Schumacher. But as a result, he can make his tyres last fairly long, giving him a broad swath of strategy options.

Perez is gentle on tyres, but as seen this season, he can turn up the heat and make up some positions later on in a stint.

So maybe Button-Perez might not be a bad thing.

With regards to di Resta...
Everyone thought Jenson was at the apex of his career, nothing more to give until he got into a highly-successful White and Green car in 2009. Maybe that's what di Resta needs; a Brawn-style comeback. Did he not set the world on fire in the DTM? That must mean he either
A. Gets the most out of a car over a single lap (Thus allowing a high qualifying result)
or
B. Made passes a la Lewis Hamilton in 2007-08; basically making crazy passes in a series where passing is rare.

Either way, I think a quicker car would do the trick to get di Resta higher on the WDC board.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 5, 2012

hawkeye122
Either way, I think a quicker car would do the trick to get di Resta higher on the WDC board.

The only problem is hwo much higher it would take him. I don't think he's World Championship material. He might win the occasion race, but I don't think he's anywhere near consistent enough to justify promoting him to a better car when there are other, more promising drivers out there.

SilverArrow · Jul 5, 2012

prisonermonkeys
The only problem is hwo much higher it would take him. I don't think he's World Championship material. He might win the occasion race, but I don't think he's anywhere near consistent enough to justify promoting him to a better car when there are other, more promising drivers out there.

How can you seriously doubt the ability of Di Resta, you compare him to Perez by Perez having better results this year like the Force India is on the same level as the Sauber. If that can count as a valid point then you could also say that Di Resta scored almost double the points Perez did last year.

Perez hasn't exactly been consistent either since he only scored points in 4 of the races this year(one less than Di Resta). He doesn't get himself involved in incidents with other cars and knows if he wastes too much time fighting with someone it could let other cars catch up so he picks his fights carefully. If you put him in a better car (which will happen eventually) he will be fast and consistent and definitely a championship contender in the future.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 5, 2012

SilverArrow
How can you seriously doubt the ability of Di Resta

Because I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he has what it takes to succeed at the highest level. If I were a team principal for a front-running team, I would not offer Pau di Resta a contract. Because, as zippy_the_cat said, we've already seen everything from him that we're going to see.

SilverArrow · Jul 5, 2012

prisonermonkeys
Because I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he has what it takes to succeed at the highest level. If I were a team principal for a front-running team, I would not offer Pau di Resta a contract. Because, as zippy_the_cat said, we've already seen everything from him that we're going to see.

Well it's a good thing you aren't a team principal then because I couldn't disagree more. If he and Perez had equal cars he would outperform him over the course of a season. This backed up by the points I made which I bet you didn't even bother to read.

MagpieRacer · Jul 5, 2012

SilverArrow
Well it's a good thing you aren't a team principal then because I couldn't disagree more. If he and Perez had equal cars he would outperform him over the course of a season. This backed up by the points I made which I bet you didn't even bother to read.

It's cool man, I think he believes his opinion is fact and everyone will abide.

Di Resta is a very god driver, that certainly cannot be doubted and I am sure would give anyone a run for their money in a top seat, would love to see him at Mclaren for sure.

Bigbazz · Jul 5, 2012

I don't think I've seen Di Resta do anything to "wow" me, but I haven't been convinced that he can't "wow" me. Perez has done well this year but the car is in a different league to what the Force India has been this season. It falls right into line with the fact that in slightly more equal situations Di Resta was overall more impressive/consistant than Perez last year.

The teams know a lot better than us how well their drivers are really doing. They have all the data, the laptimes, the camera angles etc. Di Resta has been really highly rated by the people high up in the business, so maybe they know something we don't.

Until you give Di Resta an equal opportunity in terms of a car you can't base his talent on a comparison with another driver who is driving a faster car. Same with Hulkenberg, he dominated in GP2, had a pole position for Williams in the wet, that is the only direct comparison you have with Di Resta.

Then you have car adaptability, Button when his car is how he likes it is near unbeatable, just as Alain Prost was, but when the car isnt right Button (just like prost was) is nowhere near as competitive or impressive. For years people talked how Button was slow, didnt have the talent to be a World Champion, even though his team around him valued him greatly and fully believed in him. When they finally got the car right, he delivered them a world championship.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 5, 2012

SilverArrow
Well it's a good thing you aren't a team principal then because I couldn't disagree more.

I guess that means it's a good thing you're not a team principal, either.

east · Jul 5, 2012

Bigbazz
The only top team driver that is pretty much certain to be moving is Massa, I find it hard to read into anything else before Webber and Schumacher make their decisions later in the season.

Has Ferrari come out and said they are looking for someone to replace Massa? If not (I havnt heard anything) then I honestly doubt they will. Hes the perfect number 2 driver for Alonso (not a threat). Ferrari proved for years with Schumacher the only thing they care about is the drivers championship. I think they'll keep Massa for aslong as they have Alonso and look to repeat what they did when they had Schumacher and Barrichello.

csmeteora9 · Jul 5, 2012

To be fair if Felipe continues to improve like has been doing the past few races, there'll be no need for the Scuderia to rid itself of his services anyhow.

Bigbazz · Jul 5, 2012

east
Has Ferrari come out and said they are looking for someone to replace Massa? If not (I havnt heard anything) then I honestly doubt they will. Hes the perfect number 2 driver for Alonso (not a threat). Ferrari proved for years with Schumacher the only thing they care about is the drivers championship. I think they'll keep Massa for aslong as they have Alonso and look to repeat what they did when they had Schumacher and Barrichello.

Barichello was scoring points, fighting for wins even, massa is not. Why would they keep a driver that is not contributing to their most important goal as a team, winning the constructors title?

zippy_the_cat · Jul 5, 2012

Bigbazz
Barichello was scoring points, fighting for wins even, massa is not. Why would they keep a driver that is not contributing to their most important goal as a team, winning the constructors title?

Or, for that matter, driving well enough to give you a second data point about the worth of your car? It's said that Alonso's skills are flattering the F2012. But we (and Ferrari) can't really be sure of that because Massa has been so bad. Massa is the one driver on the grid (other than Karthikeyan, who shouldn't be in F1 to begin with) who well and truly deserves the sack.

On Di Resta vs. Perez, I think PM has gotten my point but still manages to underrate Di Resta. If you put Webber in a McLaren you wouldn't worry so much about losing Hamilton. I think Di Resta is likely as good as Webber, so it's hard for me to see where McLaren would go wrong in hiring either him, Perez, or Webber. That's assuming Hamilton doesn't re-up with them or they choose not to re-up Hamilton, either of which are possibilities at that point. Perez has a chance to be better than Webber but I'm not convinced, just yet, that he's a Vettel- or Alonso-like talent. Jury's still out on that and we'll know more by the end of the season.

Ardius · Jul 5, 2012

I rate Perez and di Resta about equal, both have shown speed and promise and a balanced head. They can both pull off strategies for the team, both fast and conservative. Both deal with the pressure quite well.
The only difference between them is that Perez is at the better team.

Either would be a great choice by McLaren and both have earnt their chance at a top seat.

I'd personally also add:
Kobayashi - people continue to bark on about how he is inconsistent and wild..but these people don't seem to have watched many races very carefully. He has had less incidents than many of the other drivers and very, very few have been his fault. Some of the results he has are down to Sauber's tendencey to either go super-conservative or split the strategies and he pulls the short straw. But when he has been given the right strategy he has been bang on the pace, conserved his tyres and pulled off some spectacular overtakes along the way usually without incident.
Its a shame that everytime the camera is on Kobayashi its when he's divebombing someone or getting caught up in someone else's accident. Not to mention he seems to set the car up very loose which makes him look a bit on the edge more than other drivers.
But after watching most his F1 career very closely now, I firmly believe he can be a race winner given the chance perhaps even WDC with the right circumstances. His only weakness is qualifying which can be hit and miss.

I always feel like Kobayshi has done the same (results wise) if not more than Perez and di Resta but people overlook him because the other two get the headlines or are darlings of the press. This year has been particularly unfortunate as Perez has got those two podiums and in both races Kobayashi was on the opposite strategy.

Personally I don't see Hamilton leaving. But if he did McLaren would take di Resta due to the obvious Mercedes connections. I can't see Perez getting that gig, I'm fairly sure Ferrari is his destination. But as I say, neither would be a bad choice and both have earnt it.

east · Jul 6, 2012

Bigbazz
Barichello was scoring points, fighting for wins even, massa is not. Why would they keep a driver that is not contributing to their most important goal as a team, winning the constructors title?

Because Ferrari know they have the best driver on the grid in Alonso.

Alonso practically owns the team now, in the same way Schumacher did when he was there.

With Massa they know they have a driver who is not going to threaten Alonso and they know they have a driver thats going to obey team orders when asked to.

I dont think they'll risk possibly upsetting Alonso with a new teammate.

zippy_the_cat · Jul 6, 2012

east
Because Ferrari know they have the best driver on the grid in Alonso.

Alonso practically owns the team now, in the same way Schumacher did when he was there.

With Massa they know they have a driver who is not going to threaten Alonso and they know they have a driver thats going to obey team orders when asked to.

I dont think they'll risk possibly upsetting Alonso with a new teammate.

With Massa they have exactly zero chance of winning the constructor's. That means throwing away millions of Euros. Alonso would just have to take it, and he's obviously smart enough to understand that more bucks equals a better car.

Let's also remember that this is the team that showed Michael Schumacher the door. No driver, not even Alonso, is bigger than Ferrari.

Bigbazz · Jul 6, 2012

east
Because Ferrari know they have the best driver on the grid in Alonso.

Alonso practically owns the team now, in the same way Schumacher did when he was there.

With Massa they know they have a driver who is not going to threaten Alonso and they know they have a driver thats going to obey team orders when asked to.

I dont think they'll risk possibly upsetting Alonso with a new teammate.

You clearly don't understand Ferrari, their biggest priority is to win the constructors championship, as is any teams, because they have the "best" driver on the grid doesnt mean anything, having 1 driver who scores points doesnt win championships.

Massa will have to pull miracles out of his ass to keep his seat and thats how it should be, his 2011 was bad enough to lose him a drive, better drivers with better seasons comparative to their cars lost their drives (Alguesuari and Adrian Sutil for example). Massas 2012 form has been terrible, and people are now praising him when hes starting to do "ok".

prisonermonkeys · Jul 6, 2012

I wonder … if, hypothetically, Red Bull were to sign Lewis Hamilton, what would become of Toro Rosso?

Christian Horner has made it pretty clear that Red Bull want to keep Sebastian Vettel for as long as possible. And if they were to take Lewis Hamilton, they’d obviously want him to race for them for as long as possible as well.

So where does that leave Toro Rosso?

Right now, the team is seriously underperforming. Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne are failing to live up to expectations, and I think the team is in serious danger of being caught by Caterham – both on the track and in the points. What’s more, the Red Bull Young Driver Program has a presence in every major feeder series, whether through direct sponsorship, or through Christian Horner’s Arden International. They don’t need Toro Rosso anymore, because it’s cheaper and easier to run drivers in the junior categories. The effect of that will be doubled if they secure Vettel and Hamilton for years to come. I just can’t see anyone being able to justify the expense of a second Formula 1 team.

Peter. · Jul 6, 2012

I wonder if Torro Rosso even makes a profit. They are sponsored by their owners, and barely by anyone else.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 6, 2012

Uh, they have backing from Nova Chemicals and Falcon Private Bank and CEPSA as major secondary sponsors:

And there is Speed Week and Siemens, but they're probably no more than techncial partners.

The involvement of CEPSA is what triggered the last round of "Toro Rosso will be sold" rumours. They are owned by IPIC (International Petroleum Investment Company), and Abu Dhabi-based investment company who also own Nova Chemicals and Falcon Private Bank. This investment sparked rumours that IPIC would buy the entire team from Red Bull, though it obviously never eventuated. Still, if they wanted to, they would be ideally-positioned to do it.

Personally, I think full team ownership by a Middle Eastern person and/or organisation is an inevitablity. We already have Aabar, Mumtakalat and IPIC investing in teams, so it wouldn't surprise me if, before long, we have a team competing under a Middle Eastern name and banner.

And probably another one wholly-owned by the Chinese.

zippy_the_cat · Jul 6, 2012

prisonermonkeys
Christian Horner has made it pretty clear that Red Bull want to keep Sebastian Vettel for as long as possible. And if they were to take Lewis Hamilton, theyd obviously want him to race for them for as long as possible as well.

So where does that leave Toro Rosso?

About the same as always if a Vettel-Hamilton pairing proves as combustible as Prost-Senna or Alonso-Hamilton. "As long as possible" in that case wouldn't be but a year or two.

prisonermonkeys · Jul 6, 2012

Personally, I think it will - which is why I think Hamilton going to Red Bull is a bad move - but would Red Bull necessarily see it that way? It's a case of damned if they do, and damned if they don't. If they get rid of Toro Rosso, and the Vettel-Hamilton relationship falls apart after a year, then they're left holding nothing; they'd have to look to the junior series for a new driver (because no Formula 1 driver would want to enter than envionrment). But if they take Hamilton and keep Toro Rosso around in case things fall apart, that's hardly going to inspire much confidence from Hamilton, is it?

EDK · Jul 6, 2012

prisonermonkeys
I just cant see anyone being able to justify the expense of a second Formula 1 team.

Who do they have to justify it to? Red Bull is privately held. If they had shareholders to convince they are doing the right thing, I might buy that logic.

Granted, if the experiment proves to be inefficient and ineffective at achieving the goal of developing future Red Bull drivers, it probably does not make sense for them to keep the second team. But if you can afford it, and even if it just produces one Vettel every 5-7 years, it's probaably a worthwhile investment. Just as with Ferrari, or even McLaren, I'm not sure Red Bull would be interested in putting a true F1 rookie in their (Top Team) car.

prisonermonkeys
The involvement of CEPSA is what triggered the last round of "Toro Rosso will be sold" rumours. They are owned by IPIC (International Petroleum Investment Company), and Abu Dhabi-based investment company who also own Nova Chemicals and Falcon Private Bank. This investment sparked rumours that IPIC would buy the entire team from Red Bull, though it obviously never eventuated. Still, if they wanted to, they would be ideally-positioned to do it.

Personally, I think full team ownership by a Middle Eastern person and/or organisation is an inevitablity. We already have Aabar, Mumtakalat and IPIC investing in teams, so it wouldn't surprise me if, before long, we have a team competing under a Middle Eastern name and banner.

This, however, seems to make some sense. It may be, though, that they have more of a "best of both worlds" partnership. Red Bull acts as a recognizable lead sponsor, and gets their feeder pool of drivers, while the Middle Eastern partners get exposure and involvement in F1. We obviously don't know the extent of their ownership stake or control with any sort of certainty.

Ardius · Jul 6, 2012

Peter.
I wonder if Torro Rosso even makes a profit. They are sponsored by their owners, and barely by anyone else.

Making a profit isn't even on the agenda in motorsport. The entire structure of motorsport is based on marketing value not profit.
When Red Bull sell Toro Rosso it won't be for profit, it will be to get a return on something of value.

prisonermonkeys
Right now, the team is seriously underperforming. Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne are failing to live up to expectations, and I think the team is in serious danger of being caught by Caterham both on the track and in the points. Whats more, the Red Bull Young Driver Program has a presence in every major feeder series, whether through direct sponsorship, or through Christian Horners Arden International. They dont need Toro Rosso anymore, because its cheaper and easier to run drivers in the junior categories. The effect of that will be doubled if they secure Vettel and Hamilton for years to come. I just cant see anyone being able to justify the expense of a second Formula 1 team.

Ricciardo and Vergne failing to live up to expectations? Whose? Yours? I think both drivers have promise. They haven't been spectacular but then thats difficult to really judge given the car. Vergne has made some stupid mistakes and has squandered his qualifying advantage but he is a rookie. Not so long ago we were critical of Alguesuari for failing to put it together. Ricciardo I feel has a good head on his shoulders which makes up for the lack of speed in qualifying.

Is the team underperforming or are they simply ham-strung by being owned by Red Bull? Not only can they not decide their own drivers (so are forced into taking a rookie and a inexperienced driver) but I wouldn't be surprised if they also lose staff to Red Bull. Not to mention it doesn't look good when STR out-perform RBR.

I don't know why its considered a bad thing that they are caught by Caterham. Ok, its not a good thing to be falling behind your rivals but why is it specifically bad to be caught by Caterham? Caterham are a highly professional team who have hired a crap load of experienced personnel and are allowed to hire experienced and proven drivers. Being caught by them is not something to be ashamed about (although certainly STR should worry about falling back to 10th in WCC - maybe not this year but in future).

Has Red Bull ever "needed" STR? I don't think so. Seems to me you're frustrated that two seats on the grid are taken up by Red Bull junior drivers just for the sake of it, rather than drivers hired for their ability or suitability for the team. Welcome to how a lot of us feel about STR.

What really annoys me about the STR situation is that the team has proven in the past that they have the potential to challenge near the front. But they are constantly held back and suffer driver resets every few years. Imagine if they were an independent team..

CinnamonOD · Jul 7, 2012

prisonermonkeys
Ferrari - Fernando Alonso and Sergio Perez
In a move that surprises no-one, Felipe Massa is shown the door at Ferrari. Despite almost every single driver (except Narain Karthikeyan) being mentioned as a potential replacement, Sergio Perez is the team's first, last and obvious choice for the second seat.

SilverArrow · Jul 10, 2012

Red Bull confirm Webber for another season

The '13 driver transfer discussion/speculation thread op updated 16/10

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