The '13 driver transfer discussion/speculation thread op updated 16/10

[hawkeye122]

Paid way more in ALMS? You've got to be joking. That series is looking pretty dire at the moment and you think he'd get paid more than NASCAR?

NASCAR has the highest average salary for racing drivers. Nothing else compares. A midfield driver in NASCAR earns more than a midfield driver in F1. Its only the ludicrous salaries of the very top drivers like Alonso and Hamilton that earn more than NASCAR drivers.

In ALMS Hamilton would be lucky to be paid anything - most if not all the teams would be looking for drivers who bring a budget. And that applies to pretty much every motorsport going except the top teams in F1, WRC and Le Mans - anything else its reliant on manufacturers coming in with the big spend.

Hamilton would be hot property for any racing team in any series. He would presumably be mid-pack at least in NASCAR. He could certainly find a seat if need be and the sponsors. But the question is, is now the right time to switch series?

Explain to me how much you would pay to put unproven, inexperienced talent into one of your NASCAR Sprint cup cars.

Or, how much do you pay a Nationwide series driver, compared to an F1 driver?

Lewis would probably NOT be mid-pack in NASCAR, just look at the long line of F1 drivers in the sport.


But after looking at it, the ALMS is a poor comparison. And after a bit of thinking, Toyota took Algusuari, who wasnt exactly "good" straight out of F1. Imagine what they would offer Lewis, who is good.

 

[Ardius]

Well, he isn't unproven. Lewis has an extensive junior formula career which is an impressive read. He has clearly proven himself in F1 too - he's clearly fast.

Now, this won't necessarily translate to an oval but the point is he has already achieved relative fame and success. That alone is enough to bag him decent sponsors, especially as I hear he has a decent image in the US. I'm fairly sure a mid-pack NASCAR team would possibly run him if anything just on the chance that he can actually translate his previous record onto an oval.

Is there really a "long line of F1 drivers" in NASCAR? Recenly theres a few but some of them have done pretty well. Piquet Jr, Villenueve and Montoya have all had varying success.
Raikkonen had a decent debut too.

The only poor examples I can think off the top of my head are Scott Speed and Karthikeyan...but are we really comparing Hamilton to them?

I can gurantee you that an F1 World Champion will get attention, enough to land him a drive in any motosport series, at least initially anyway. Raikkonen is surely proof of that - he wandered in to WRC and NASCAR trucks. And Hamilton has a much better image than Raikkonen.

 

[hawkeye122]

We'll see. But I honestly dont see him leaving F1 for at least another year or 2. If he wins the championship this year (Actually a possibility) then he wouldnt be easily let go of.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

What I've been trying to do is think like Hamilton's management and, as I pointed out, they're generalists in the sport-agency biz and are not particularly F1 oriented. And they certainly understand that one of the oldest tricks in the book when it comes to scoring a big payday for a client is to get a target to bid against itself. Here in the US Scott Boras does this all the time; it's how he's able consistently to land $150M-$200M contracts for big-name baseball players. His normal tactic is to create the illusion that there's a lot of competition for the would-be signee, even if the reality is that there's only one team the client wants to play for or that can afford him even at a lesser rate. But Hamilton's problem, if the horizon is limited to F1, is that there's not much room for illusion-making because the paddock's too small and everybody has a pretty good idea of what everybody else is up to.

How do you get around that? Expand the horizon. As Ardius pointed out, there's no bigger horizon money-wise in the sport than NASCAR. That's why I think NASCAR could enter the picture if McLaren plays hardball. It's a smart play even as a bluff. And if McLaren calls it, who's to say that NASCAR wouldn't be the better option for Hamilton, even if it means taking less money initially? After all, the plane ride to Los Angeles from Darlington or Talladega is a lot shorter than the one between LA and Spa or Monza.

As for how appealing Hamilton would be to a NASCAR team, let's get real. I'm far from a Hamilton fanboy, but I had to chuckle at hawkeye's argument that he'd have trouble finding a ride. We know for a fact he's a better driver than Montoya, Piquet Jr., Karthikeyan, Villenueve and probably Ambrose. He's at least as good as Raikkonen, who probably could have had a NASCAR deal if he'd wanted one because he was solid in his two races here. I watched both: He was consistently 14th-15th in machinery that was certainly worth no more than those positions, and acquitted himself very well in the bumping and banging. Hamilton is very far from "unproven, inexperienced talent" and I suspect he'd take to oval-track Sprint Cup racing like a duck to water.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I'm not entirely sure exactly where I should put this; this thread seems to be the most relevant one. The Financial Times has run a story suggesting that Vodafone will either terminate their sponsorship with McLaren, or elect not to renew it when the current contract expires at the end of 2013. The article seems to lean towards an early termination:

“One person familiar with the process said that Vodafone’s sponsorship cost ‘tens of millions of pounds’ every year, and that such high costs needed to be evaluated in the more difficult financial climate that has hit mobile phone businesses in many markets in Europe.”

However, you need a subscription to view the full article, so I can't be certain.

 

[hawkeye122]

Ehhh. I'm not sure if that would hurt McLaren financially or not. I'm sure the pickup of Lucozade helps a little...

 

[prisonermonkeys]

If Vodafone were to withdraw, they wouldn't do it straight away. They'd give the team enough notice for McLaren to find a new sponsor.

Theoretically, it could pave the way for Sergio Perez to join a front-running team. McLaren have Button under contract until 2014, but Hamilton's contract expires this year. With Luca di Montezemolo describing Sergio Perez as being too inexperienced for Ferrari, and talk that Sebastian Vettel could go to Ferrari in 2014, I can't see Perez waiting around in a Sauber forever for an opening at Ferrari. So with McLaren possibly needing a new sponsor and a new driver, they could convince the Slims to buy Perez out of his Ferrari development program contract, and then move their Claro (or Telmex or America Movil) backing to McLaren.

It could happen. In an interview with a German newspaper, Mark Webber said he thinks there could be as many as four driver changes at the top teams for 2013.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

If Vodafone were to withdraw, they wouldn't do it straight away. They'd give the team enough notice for McLaren to find a new sponsor.

Theoretically, it could pave the way for Sergio Perez to join a front-running team. McLaren have Button under contract until 2014, but Hamilton's contract expires this year. With Luca di Montezemolo describing Sergio Perez as being too inexperienced for Ferrari, and talk that Sebastian Vettel could go to Ferrari in 2014, I can't see Perez waiting around in a Sauber forever for an opening at Ferrari. So with McLaren possibly needing a new sponsor and a new driver, they could convince the Slims to buy Perez out of his Ferrari development program contract, and then move their Claro (or Telmex or America Movil) backing to McLaren.

It could happen. In an interview with a German newspaper, Mark Webber said he thinks there could be as many as four driver changes at the top teams for 2013.

PM, you'll see that I gave you a tweak in the V8s thread because you were skeptical that Vodafone's dropping the Triple 8 sponsorship in that series had any implications for F1.

Told-you-sos done, I should think if Vodafone drops McLaren then McLaren would be that much less likely to give Hamilton a bigger-than-Button-sized payday. PM's Perez idea in that case wouldn't be out of whack.

 

[Ardius]

Why wouldn't McLaren go for Paul di Resta? I'm not sure McLaren need Perez' money, Vodafone is certainly a big loss but they are one of the top teams. They are not as desperate as perhaps Sauber or Williams were/are...not that Perez is a desperate choice - he would be perfect for McLaren - but there are other options. Di Resta comes with Mercedes backing.
They could also potentially go a bit left of field and pick up James Calado? Then there is the usual Buemi, Alguesuari, etc etc.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Why wouldn't McLaren go for Paul di Resta?

Because they have to take the best driver available. And in their position, I'd happily take Perez over di Resta any day of the week.

They are not as desperate as perhaps Sauber or Williams were/are...not that Perez is a desperate choice - he would be perfect for McLaren - but there are other options.

Yes. And fo those options, Perez is probably the best.

They could also potentially go a bit left of field and pick up James Calado?

They could, but Calado is a huge risk. He's doing well in GP2, but the talent pool in GP2 is quite shallow this year, so it's very difficult to judge him.

Then there is the usual Buemi, Alguesuari, etc etc.

I'd be interested to see Jaime Alguersuari have a go.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I wonder ... if Mercedes were to withdraw from Formula 1 ahead of 2013, would they simply shut the team down, or would they find a buyer?

If they went looking for a buyer, then I can't imagine that Michael Schumacher would be too interested if there is no manufacturer support. Could he perhaps put together a bid for the team?

 

[hawkeye122]

I wonder ... if Mercedes were to withdraw from Formula 1 ahead of 2013, would they simply shut the team down, or would they find a buyer?

If they went looking for a buyer, then I can't imagine that Michael Schumacher would be too interested if there is no manufacturer support. Could he perhaps put together a bid for the team?

Since when is Mercedes pulling out? This is the first i've heard of it...

I'm sure SOMEONE would buy the team, we wouldnt be seeing Brawn GP all over again. Maybe that could be the chance for a member of VWAG to pick up F1?

If Audi "Might" stop the WEC in the next 3 or 4 years (For whatever Porsche conspiracy there may or may not be), they could move on to try and conquer F1. If they got the immensely talented crew at Joest involved, and snagged Ross Brawn (or another noteworthy designer), they could be an instant threat.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Since when is Mercedes pulling out? This is the first i've heard of it...

I didn't say they are pulling out. I'm saying they might pull out. There has been speculation that they are very unhappy with the terms offered to them under the new Concorde Agreement, which might be enough for them to pull out.

If Audi "Might" stop the WEC in the next 3 or 4 years (For whatever Porsche conspiracy there may or may not be), they could move on to try and conquer F1. If they got the immensely talented crew at Joest involved, and snagged Ross Brawn (or another noteworthy designer), they could be an instant threat.

Audi won't enter the sport any time soon. They were one of the driving forces behind the inline-four engine format proposed for 2014, but they lost interest. Now that V6 engines are going to be used, they won't enter Formula 1.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

Di Resta and Anthony Hamilton have gone their separate ways.

The PlanetF1 people are all a-twitter about what this implies long-run for Lewis Hamilton and McLaren.

As between Di Resta and Perez, I think Di Resta is a Webber-like safe pair of hands. He'd win races in a top car and maybe be in title contention. Perez likely has more upside but isn't quite as safe a choice because he isn't as far along in his development. In Telmex Perez also has more lucrative sponsor backing. But how wedded might McLaren be to the idea of fielding British drivers? They weren't in the past, obviously (c.f. Senna-Prost), but there'd be a tradeoff commercially between what a non-British driver brings in sponsor-wise and what he loses on the home front. No idea how Ron Dennis would size up any of that.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

But how wedded might McLaren be to the idea of fielding British drivers? They weren't in the past, obviously (c.f. Senna-Prost), but there'd be a tradeoff commercially between what a non-British driver brings in sponsor-wise and what he loses on the home front.

They only have two British drivers at the moment because Button and Hamilton are the two best drivers available to them. If the two best drivers available to them are - for instance - Button and Perez, then they're going to take Button and Perez. They won't take Button and di Resta for the sake of having two British drivers.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Agree. McLaren is a top F1 team, they have the best drivers available for them. Not long ago their drivers were a finn and a colombian.

Ferrari's the same, rarely hiring an italian, although, to be honest and unlike the UK, Italy hasn't produced a clear WDC-able driver ever since Alboreto and even this one had his best chance exactly with ... Ferrari. Go figure.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Raffaele Marciello might change that in a few years ...

 

[zippy_the_cat]

They only have two British drivers at the moment because Button and Hamilton are the two best drivers available to them. If the two best drivers available to them are - for instance - Button and Perez, then they're going to take Button and Perez. They won't take Button and di Resta for the sake of having two British drivers.

Well, the free-agents-to-be are Webber, Schumacher, Massa and Kovalainen. We presume Perez and Di Resta are available because they're at teams that have traditionally been farm clubs for the big players. Limiting the discussion to those with Pirelli-era F1 experience, Sutil and Alguersuari are also available. Buemi, not so much -- I doubt RB would let him out of contract to go to another top team. If we want to talk about "best available," then we have to consider the full range of options. I'd say that Di Resta and Perez would be contenders to replace Hamilton. So too Webber -- he's constantly identified with a future Ferrari drive but why wouldn't he also consider McLaren if they have a vacancy? Clearly we can rule out Massa, and I doubt either McLaren or Kovalainen are up for another go. Schumacher I don't see leaving Merc for anywhere other than retirement but stranger things have happened and Merc's saying we'll all know the answer to Michael's future in six weeks.

Re the Finn and Columbian, point taken, but the Button-Hamilton combo has been marketing gold. If Vodafone's pulling the plug McLaren wouldn't be indifferent to dollars, pounds and Euros.

I'd also note that the best-drivers-available argument didn't count for much at McLaren at the end of the 2007 season. You can only take that line so far.

 

[F1 fan]

Firstly, who have force India "farmed out"? No one. Secondly, given the situation at mclaren at the end of 2007, they weren't exactly spoilt for choice. Heikki had a good debut season and was worth a punt.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Adrian Sutil has reportedly been seen talking to Williams management, leading to suggestions that he could replace Senna. It would make sense if they took him on for half a season to bank some solid points, and then delayed Bottas' debut until 2013.

He's also been seen talking to Sauber, sparking suggestions that he could replace Kamui Kobayshi. This makes less sense, unless both Perez and Kobayashi leave the team. If Perez goes, Esteban Gutierrez would likely replace him; if Kobayashi goes, Sutil would be a good choice to help Gutierrez given the lack of continuity in the team.

And he has apparently been seen in Force India, leading to talk that he could re-join the team in 2013 if di Resta or Hulkenberg move on.

 

[peter_vod69]

Seen by whom?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

If I had a link, I would have shared it. But it's pretty clear that all of this is speculation. I'm suprised your cynical self didn't pick up on that.

 

[peter_vod69]

If I had a link, I would have shared it. But it's pretty clear that all of this is speculation. I'm suprised your cynical self didn't pick up on that.

I was just curious as to where the info was coming from.

 

[csmeteora9]

Seen by whom?

During the qualifying session at Valencia the BBC quickly showed a shot inside of the Force India hospitality centre. Care to guess who was there?

 

[Bigbazz]

Am I the only person who thinks it is really unlikely that the 2013 Mclaren lineup will be anything other than Hamilton/Button?

The only top team driver that is pretty much certain to be moving is Massa, I find it hard to read into anything else before Webber and Schumacher make their decisions later in the season.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I think Hamilton is most likely going to stay with the team - but I also think that he needs a change in scenery, kind of like the way Button left Brawn/Mercedes in 2010, having been with the team since 2003. A challenge is what he needs, but I think a move to Red Bull would be an unmitigated disaster in the making (though I don't believe the rumours have any substance to them; they were started by Hamilton fans who would nto or could not admit that he was the architect of his own problems last year, and they have been kept alive by people desperate to see him best Vettel and prove that Vettel's dominance was only a result of the car).

 

[peter_vod69]

Am I the only person who thinks it is really unlikely that the 2013 Mclaren lineup will be anything other than Hamilton/Button?

No.

 

[Bigbazz]

Obviously Vettels dominance was the result of the best car, but it was also because of his amazingly consistant speed in driving it. Vettel (after 2010) is more level headed and consistant than Lewis, having them both in the same team would be very interesting but I certaintly don't think Lewis would have an easy time of beating Vettel. For the sake of excitement it would be awesome to see, as they are arguably the two fastest drivers in terms of raw speed, I just don't think lewis has the mental strength of Vettel.

Always see/hear lewis have little emotional snaps, often over the radio over small things, sometimes he will overdrive his car a bit. Hamilton has amazing speed but sometimes he lets his emotions make decisions where as Vettel is more calculating.

That is just my personal view of how I see things. I'd love to see it, but personally think both the Mclaren and Red Bull drivers will be staying put.

 

[peter_vod69]

I think a fair chunk of the blame this year could be levelled at his crew. How many times has he been held up because of a dodgy pitstop?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Latest insane rumour: Paul di Resta has split with Anthony Hamilton as his manager because of a conflict of interests that could prevent di Resta from getting the second McLaren seat.

While it is true that Hamilton is no longer managing di Resta, I have no idea where this "di Resta-to-McLaren" stuff is coming from. If di Resta and Anthony Hamilton have gone their separate ways over a conflict of interests, then it probably has to do with a possible Mercedes drive rather than a possible McLaren drive.

Like any team, McLaren obligated to take the two best drivers available to them at any given time, but it Paul di Resta really the best driver available? Wouldn’t it make more sense for McLaren to try for Rosberg or Perez or Kobayashi or even Alguersuari first? Hell, it wouldn’t surprise me if they went for Kevin Magnussen, or tried to steal Romain Grosjean away from Lotus. All di Resta seems to have in his favour is a) he's British, and b) he drives for a Mercedes-powered team, neither of which are enough to justify taking him on.