The '13 driver transfer discussion/speculation thread op updated 16/10

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Whoever goes to Ferrari will be the 2nd driver, another Rubens unfortunately. Whenever Alonso is, always he is the first driver of the team. That only didnt work with Mclaren, Lewis was a good driver. Senna will stay at williams he is doing a decent job so far. Massa i think will go to sauber and perez to ferrari. Paul di resta will go to mercedez and shumacher will retire.
 
When have Ferrari ever taken a driver for a year? They've probably had the most consistently-stable line-up for the past twenty years. Kimi Raikkonen had the shortest tenure with them, and even he did three seasons. I can't imagine that Ferrari would take Perez for a year and then drop him - especially when he is highly-rated in the paddock; he'd be a major coup for any of the other big teams even without a year at Ferrari. So unless Ferrari think Alonso will either leave the team or leave the sport in 2014, I can't see them taking Perez in 2013.

I think Ferrari will either try and buy Vettel out of his contract for 2013, or keep Massa. They're the only options that make sense.

Ivan Capelli - 1993.

I just think that Ferrari are looking to take Perez but are perhaps waiting to see how he does and are willing to wait a year but want someone who is a bit closer to Alonso than Massa. Seeing as Webber has effectively said he isn't looking a lot further ahead before retirement it seems an easy fit to me.

I don't know how you got taking Perez for only a year out of that. If they take Perez they will be looking to be keeping him at least as long as they have kept Massa.

I see this situation exactly like Felipe Massa at Sauber - no one really thought he was all that great before Ferrari promoted him but equally no one was surprised by it as he always had that connection. Perez is a lot better than Massa appeared back in the day.

I don't know why people think that if Alonso is there, Ferrari won't hire anyone good. Believe it or not, Alonso is not bigger than the team, he doesn't run the team. Frankly I think he knows better than anyone else that the team needs a driver who is more consistently close to him than Massa is - it doesn't help his own chances having his teammate failing to take points off his rivals.
Just because Alonso threw his toys out the pram about Hamilton doesn't mean he won't work with anyone who is good. The circumstances of 2007 were not so simple as "Alonso got beat and he didn't like it".
 
I don't know how you got taking Perez for only a year out of that.

Alonso has his contract until 2016. He hasn't said anything about retirement, but if he does it will be at Ferrari. Vettel is coming in for 2014. That leaves 2013 for Perez. So unless they throw Vettel out after one year, Perez has a long time to wait.
 
Alonso has his contract until 2016. He hasn't said anything about retirement, but if he does it will be at Ferrari. Vettel is coming in for 2014. That leaves 2013 for Perez. So unless they throw Vettel out after one year, Perez has a long time to wait.

Vettel is coming? Shouldn't that be Vettel might be coming?

Then what was it?

There was more going on behind the scenes, Alonso was obviously not the favoured son so to speak. While Alonso was fairly big-headed to think the team should only back him and force a rookie to his whim, equally its kind of natural to expect a team to give both drivers some attention. Alonso was clearly thinking "what the hell did you hire my for?" when the team started visibly backing Hamilton.

There was more to it than what happened on track is all.
 
Vettel is coming? Shouldn't that be Vettel might be coming?

Yes, just like Perez might not be joining Ferrari. This is the speculation thread after all. I'm more unconvinced of Perez going to Ferrari.
 
Senn stays at williams. One of the richest man in the world, Erik something, said that Senna is going no where and he means business. Its obvious that senna is being affected by the 3rd driver since he doesnt get a lot racing time but he is racing well. With all the bad luck he had and btw what a save he did and stills gets one point from all that, wow, hats off to him. Next year he will be more prepared and ready. Look at Maldonado.
 
Senn stays at williams. One of the richest man in the world, Erik something, said that Senna is going no where and he means business.
Williams will pick the best two drivers available to them at any given time, so unless Erik Something is running the team, it doesn't matter what he says. The team will drop Bruno Senna the minute they feel he becomes a liability, and there is nothing Erik Something can do to stop it. He can throw as much money at the team as he likes, but it won't change the way the team feel about him.
 
This might sound insane, but if Hamilton were to leave McLaren, I think there is a reasonable chance he could wind up at Williams.

I think Lewis more likely will be driving a NASCAR next year than driving a Williams. My suspicion is that whether he likes or not, he's stuck at McLaren -- unless Ferrari and Alonso surprise us all. The chance of that sort of surprise in my view is non-zero but obviously not all that high.
 
If the top teams are locked out and he genuinely doesn't want to be at McLaren, he's not going to have a hell of a lot of choice.
 
What if Button continues his poor performances, will they let him go and make place for someone else (Di Resta) at Mclaren or keep Button and hope he can improve.
 
McLaren are too smart to get rid of a driver because he had a few dud races. Besides, Button might be in a slump, but Lewis Hamilton was in a considerably worse place last year. McLaren won't be in a hurry to drop him. And even if they did, I doubt they'd take di Resta.
 
I think Lewis more likely will be driving a NASCAR next year than driving a Williams. My suspicion is that whether he likes or not, he's stuck at McLaren -- unless Ferrari and Alonso surprise us all. The chance of that sort of surprise in my view is non-zero but obviously not all that high.

There are SO many more places that would suit his driving style much better before heading to NASCAR. As I recall, JPM raced on Indy Ovals BEFORE going to F1. Lewis has no such experience.
 
Williams will pick the best two drivers available to them at any given time, so unless Erik Something is running the team, it doesn't matter what he says. The team will drop Bruno Senna the minute they feel he becomes a liability, and there is nothing Erik Something can do to stop it. He can throw as much money at the team as he likes, but it won't change the way the team feel about him.

But then it goes back to whether or not Senna is a laibility to them. He is doing a rasonable job so far, though not at the moment, but Williams is getting some money from having him in the seat. If Senna's form improves, and Erik Something throws more money at them, Williams will think twice about dropping him for Bottas, unless Bottas can bring in even more money.

I think Williams needs some consistency in their lineup now. Hold on to their drivers that already know how to drive the car and the tyres well, and use them to develop the team and car for the next few years, while Maldonado and Senna still bring in some money. Look at Torro Rosso, a whole new lineup full of inconsistency, and the car is losing out in qualifying to Caterhams now, on merit.
 
If Williams want consistency, then they only really need one of their two drivers.

One driver brings $40 million. The other brings $15 million.

This should not be a difficult decision.
 
If Williams want consistency, then they only really need one of their two drivers.

One driver brings $40 million. The other brings $15 million.

This should not be a difficult decision.

Bruno Senna would probably have a better second season at Williams, than Valettri Bottas will have a first season. It's probably the best decision to keep him for another year, at least.
 
Ardius
Ivan Capelli - 1993.

To be fair, that was down to Capelli's calamitous performance. I'm inclined to agree with prisonermonkeys on this one. The ferrari of the last thirty years or so have preferred to go for a consistency in their lineup. It's not really in their nature to hire a driver for just one year. If the rumors about Vettel are true, I see them sticking with Massa for another season. I know it seems unlikely, but I just can't see them hiring Perez for just one season. Its difficult to predict. If they absolutely have to hire someone for a single season, I'd love to see them give Kobayashi a chance in a (hopefully) competitive car.

Peter.
Bruno Senna would probably have a better second season at Williams, than Valettri Bottas will have a first season. It's probably the best decision to keep him for another year, at least.

I'm not seeing it. Senna hasn't done much to justify his place there. If he is to earn a second season, he has to start performing. I currently don't see him staying put. As for him "probably having a better second season", I'm not buying it. This is formula one, the big leagues. He's had enough chances. If he doesn't pull it out of the bag, he's done.
 
Ivan Capelli - 1993.
Capelli under-performed. Seriously under-performed to the point where he was sacked by the team. The difference here is that if Vettel is joining Ferrari in 2014, and Massa is leaving at the end of 2012, then Ferrari will be taking a driver on with the intention of only having them race for a year, which goes against everything they have done for the past twenty years. They like long-term stability in their driver line-ups. They'd be better off keeping Massa in the seat for an extra year than they would be signing up someone like Perez for a single season as that is only going to cause disruptions and slow down their season as drivers adapt to the team.
 
hawkeye122
There are SO many more places that would suit his driving style much better before heading to NASCAR. As I recall, JPM raced on Indy Ovals BEFORE going to F1. Lewis has no such experience.

Don't know about that. If doors close for him at McLaren, via his own choice or that of Whitmarsh and Dennis, his management could well decide that the Euro crisis means there are greener pastures in North America. I suspect NASCAR's suits would welcome the idea of adding a competitive black driver and so would help him secure a seat at one of the top teams. He would have to weigh that against the stick he'd get from the fan base, which it's fair to say is not racially enlightened. Thing is, Hamilton could be competitive in NASCAR right away, as he's plenty fast and as we've all seen doesn't shy away from banging wheels.

IndyCar I see as a lesser option for him. There's not nearly as much money to be made in that series.

I still think the odds are he re-ups with McLaren for lack of other top-team F1 options. Unless, that is, he alienates Whitmarsh and Dennis, which seems distinctly possible.
 
Don't know about that. If doors close for him at McLaren, via his own choice or that of Whitmarsh and Dennis, his management could well decide that the Euro crisis means there are greener pastures in North America. I suspect NASCAR's suits would welcome the idea of adding a competitive black driver and so would help him secure a seat at one of the top teams. He would have to weigh that against the stick he'd get from the fan base, which it's fair to say is not racially enlightened. Thing is, Hamilton could be competitive in NASCAR right away, as he's plenty fast and as we've all seen doesn't shy away from banging wheels.

IndyCar I see as a lesser option for him. There's not nearly as much money to be made in that series.

I still think the odds are he re-ups with McLaren for lack of other top-team F1 options. Unless, that is, he alienates Whitmarsh and Dennis, which seems distinctly possible.

I think he could EASILY find a well-to-do team in the WEC/ALMS before he had to resort to NASCAR. Nothing against them, but I think he would shy toward some alternate form of Road Racing before he went to NASCAR.
I can maybe see him being a bit like Boris Said, just doing the road course venues for NASCAR.
(On the ALMS note, what an announcement that would be for the Viper team... "We're back, and we have the best overtaking driver in the world.")

Both parties would be foolish to let Hamilton get away. They have developed the car more or less around him for 3 years. No sense in letting all that data go to waste. I think he'll be pretty stuck for another year or 2.

But if I was Lewis, and I was certain I wouldnt return to F1, I'd link up with someone like Bobby Rahal, Peter Baron, Wolfgang Ulrich or Norbert Haug, or whoever is the head gun at BMW. Set yourself up with a team that races in MULTIPLE series. Allowing you to either only do big races, or Sub in for injury until you find a good fit. Pull a Lucas Luhr, and drive literally EVERYTHING.
 
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His management isn't particularly F1-oriented, remember? They're more of a general-purpose sports agency so they'll be looking for a payday both for Hamilton and themselves. And compared to NASCAR, there's no payday in WEC/ALMS. The big green is what has me thinking NASCAR if he doesn't stay with McLaren and can't land something with RB, Ferrari or Merc.
 
Capelli under-performed. Seriously under-performed to the point where he was sacked by the team. The difference here is that if Vettel is joining Ferrari in 2014, and Massa is leaving at the end of 2012, then Ferrari will be taking a driver on with the intention of only having them race for a year, which goes against everything they have done for the past twenty years. They like long-term stability in their driver line-ups. They'd be better off keeping Massa in the seat for an extra year than they would be signing up someone like Perez for a single season as that is only going to cause disruptions and slow down their season as drivers adapt to the team.

Hey, you asked if Ferrari had given anyone only one season before - I give you an answer. I didn't make any comment whether Capelli is relevant.

I don't see the past as entirely relevant to Ferrari's future decisions. The reason they didn't hire drivers for only 1 year before is because they rarely hired drivers so far in advance that they were forced into this situation.
Which is why I kind of doubt Vettel has signed anything for 2014 yet. Its a little too far in the future.

Maybe Ferrari are factoring the possibility of Vettel into their 2013 decision but really, thats highly presumptious - not only from our perspective but also from Ferrari's perspective that Vettel will be available. A lot can happen in 18 months!

I can't comment on whether Vettel will be at Ferrari in 2014 as who really knows. But I definitely think Perez is a strong contender for 2013 and if he does go he will be on a multi-year contract. Perez has a lot more long-term connections to Ferrari than Vettel does. Ferrari know as long as the other top teams are locked out, they can call dibs on him too. The only risk is if someone like McLaren or Mercedes decide to randomly take a big gamble and pinch Perez from under their nose - but thats looking highly unlikely when the other top teams already have their own proteges (di Resta for one).

The only drivers who would move to Ferrari knowing they are only going to have a year are drivers that are either retiring (Webber) or are looking for a shot in a top team no matter the cost (Kobayashi, Maldonaldo, Buemi, Alguesuari, d'Ambrosio..maybe Hulkenburg if he's desperate).
 
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The big green is what has me thinking NASCAR if he doesn't stay with McLaren and can't land something with RB, Ferrari or Merc.

Just as point of reference, this is what Forbes says the top guys in NASCAR were getting circa 2011:

Earnhardt: $29M
Gordon: $25M
Johnson: $24M

Haven't researched the dropoff down the field but suspect it's pretty steep, just like in F1 and more serious these days because of the economy. But my original argument was that Hamilton might consider a top NASCAR team. He well understands that speed and money go together. No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

Hamilton's going to want Fernando-style money from McLaren, and McLaren's already made it plain they're not paying that. My guess is they'll offer a little better than what they're paying Button, but not that much better. Would he take that? Or would his pride maybe say, "No, I'll try building something somewhere else."
 
I just don't seem him making the switch to NASCAR at all. I can't understand why anyone would want to see him do that either - because pretty obviously he would be doing it for the money.
While Montoya had to put up with a lot of BS, he really threw away a lot of potential. I sincerely hope Hamilton doesn't do the same thing, even if it means having a career like Villenueve's (very unlikely but eh).

I'm not sure Hamilton would really be able to ask for top-salary in NASCAR anyway and nor would he land a top ride off the bat. Certainly his first year he will get a lot media attention and would easily find sponsors to back him. But what if he can't find the speed? He's never coming back to F1 going that route and its quick hole he can find himself in if he can't perform in NASCAR.

If I was Hamilton I'd see it as too much of a risk and for what? Just because McLaren won't pay him an extra million or two and they screwed up pit-stops lately? If he really does think the team owe him, he really needs a reality check.

The only way Hamilton is leaving McLaren is if he gets an offer from Ferrari or Red Bull. I really can't seem him leaving otherwise unless he is more stupid than I ever imagined.
 
Just as point of reference, this is what Forbes says the top guys in NASCAR were getting circa 2011:

Earnhardt: $29M
Gordon: $25M
Johnson: $24M

Haven't researched the dropoff down the field but suspect it's pretty steep, just like in F1 and more serious these days because of the economy. But my original argument was that Hamilton might consider a top NASCAR team. He well understands that speed and money go together. No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

Hamilton's going to want Fernando-style money from McLaren, and McLaren's already made it plain they're not paying that. My guess is they'll offer a little better than what they're paying Button, but not that much better. Would he take that? Or would his pride maybe say, "No, I'll try building something somewhere else."

I think once Hamilton realises he wont get what he wants as far as payment in F1, He'll seek ANY paycheck elsewhere.

How much does Marcos Ambrose make? Those are guys which have been in NASCAR and similar series for years. And even then, Ambrose drove a Big, heavy V8 car before going to NASCAR. V8 Supercars is about as close as it gets to NASCAR, and thats a stretch.

How much does Scott Speed make? Granted, Lewis IS faster than him, but thats a pretty similar comparison.

How much does Juan Pablo Montoya make? He ALREADY had knowledge about how to drive on an Oval, making him a great candidate.

How much did Kimi Raikkonen make in CWTS? Probably not alot.

How much does Nelson Piquet Jr. make?

How much did Karthikayen make?

There is NO money to be made for Lewis in NASCAR because he has ZERO experience(you cant possibly count driving a car, in the wet, at a promotional event as "Experience") driving on Ovals, which make up all but 1 or 2 of the races. He will not make even a fraction of what he makes in F1 in NASCAR. He simply cannot land a top NASCAR seat. And he wont. Ever.

Or, he could get a nice Prototype seat(Granted, for a reduced pay) with a privateer team. Lets say he comes to the ALMS, and makes a little money (Waaaaayyyyy more than he would at NASCAR) at... Muscle Milk, or Dyson. That puts him in a car capable of winning (A BIG deal for him), and then he clears the ALMS with ease, while gaining a bit of knowledge about Sports Car racing. Oh, whats this? Audi/Toyota/Porsche come knocking. Bam. He lands a nice pay for one of the top WEC teams. Lets say Audi snag him. Then he gets access to
-WEC (You know, that tiny race in the middle of France?)
-DTM
-GT3/VLN/Blancpain

I'm sure Fisichella (Just won the LM 24 Hours GTE Pro) is happy with where he is, money or not. And Lewis probably was paid SIGNIFICANTLY more while he was in F1.

Nick Heidfeld isnt even winning, and he's happy at Rebellion.

Who is that Ex-F1 guy who wasn't too good at Toyota a few years ago? Allan... something? Yeah. Allan McNish. Tell me he doesnt make a substantial sum of money at Audi, in addition to his Simraceway sponsorship thing.

If he wants to build skills elsewhere, why not go where his racecraft may actually apply? Instead of starting fresh, where people have been doing Ovals since they were barely old enough to drive, who will ALWAYS be faster than a Rookie fresh from Europe.

But it boils down to what I said a while ago- Lewis should NEVER have dropped his father as a Manager.
That said, I still doubt that his Managers will make his career choices for him
 
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:lol: Paid way more in ALMS? You've got to be joking. That series is looking pretty dire at the moment and you think he'd get paid more than NASCAR?

NASCAR has the highest average salary for racing drivers. Nothing else compares. A midfield driver in NASCAR earns more than a midfield driver in F1. Its only the ludicrous salaries of the very top drivers like Alonso and Hamilton that earn more than NASCAR drivers.

In ALMS Hamilton would be lucky to be paid anything - most if not all the teams would be looking for drivers who bring a budget. And that applies to pretty much every motorsport going except the top teams in F1, WRC and Le Mans - anything else its reliant on manufacturers coming in with the big spend.

Hamilton would be hot property for any racing team in any series. He would presumably be mid-pack at least in NASCAR. He could certainly find a seat if need be and the sponsors. But the question is, is now the right time to switch series?
 
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