My interpretation: Ferrari are scared. Their entire championship bid rests on the outcome.
Allow me to explain - if the FIA were to prosecute and the WMSC handed down a guilty verdict and imposed a fine, going to court wouldn't be worth it. Ferrari might try to argue in court to protect their image, but in doing so they stand a serious risk of doing even more damage to themselves as they try to draw the argument out. They'd do better to pay the fine and keep their mouths shut. They can always reclaim their reputation on the track; Renault are doing as much this season.
But if the WMSC find them guilty, there is a chance that Ferrari will be a) stripped of their points from the German Grand Prix, b) excluded from one or more races, c) disqualified from the championship or d) any combination thereof. All of those outcomes are very
bad for Ferrari, especially for their title bid. Disqualification for obvious reasons, but having their points stripped or being banned from races will kill their chances of winning both World Championships. I'm willing to bet that of the upcoming races, Suzuka, Singapore and possibly Korea and Interlagos will be Red Bull territory. And it's not like the Red Bulls are fantastic on one type of circuit and abysmal on others; they're
always up there. If Ferrari lose any ground now, they're going to have a very, very difficult time of reclaiming any of that ground. They're not just going to need to win races, but they'll need other results to go their way.
Part of this is tied back to the political situation last year. FOTA might be called the Formula One Teams' Association, but it has always been a manufacturer initiative. It's pretty telling that the teams always met on manufacturer territory during the debate over the budget cap. Last year we lost Toyota and BMW, and Honda had already called it a day. Renault are too busy trying to reclaim their name (and doing admirably), whilst Mercedes are pre-occupied establishing their own team. And then there are three new teams with no ties to any manufacturer, further diluting the share of power. If Ferrari go into bat in the political arena, they can only call on Sauber and Toro Rosso to back them up - and Sauber and Toro Rosso don't count for much unless other teams are involved. So Ferrari have lost all of their power almost overnight, and they're desperate to reclaim it. That's why Luca alternates between hitting out at the new teams and claiming they should be allowed to run a customer chassis: Ferrari want leverage over more teams to give them more political pulling power.
It's happening on-track, too. For nearly two decades now, Formula 1 has been dominated by a Cold War between two teams at the front. From the mid-1990s, it was Ferrari and Williams. Then it was Ferrari and McLaren. And in 2005 and 2006, it was Ferrari and Renault. But in 2009, the number of teams at the front end double from two to four as Brawn and Red Bull emerged as superpowers. And of the four, Ferrari were the biggest loser. They had their worst season since 1995. But they
loved the two-horse races of the past fifteen years, because they were always up there. But as the balance of power has shifted, Ferrari have seen their power diminish. They need to reclaim
something, and so by switching Massa and Alonso at Hockenheim, they put Alonso back into contention for the title. Granted, six points might not sound like it makes much of a difference, but you only need half a point to win.
At the end of the day, Ferrari rattling the sabre doesn't do much. If the WMSC orders their points stripped or a race ban, there's not a lot Ferrari can do. It will take time for them to arrange a court hearing, and it's likely that hearings won't begin until after Ferrari have had their sentence imposed. All they could reasonably do is sue the FIA for points lost, but it would be impossible to prove how many points Ferrari would have otherwise gained, especially if they are given a race ban. All they're really trying to do is scare the WMSC into submission, especially given the way the French courts overturned Flavio Braitore's life ban.
If I were the FIA, I would probably meet fire with fire. The FIA don't really have a choice on this one - if they bow even slightly to Ferrari, then Ferrari win. I'd continue prosecuting as usual, and if Ferrari felt the need to take me to court, I'd simply suspend their 2011 entry until such time as the legal dispute was settled, because otherwise it would be a clear conflict of interests. I'd then do my best to delay the legal proceedings long enough so that Ferrari could only be re-admitted to the grid
after the closing date for 2011 entries, thus shunting them right down to the bottom of the entry list. The numbers a team carry are a kind of status symbol, since they reflect a team's finishing position in the World Constructors' Championship - by robbing them of that claim, I make an example of them. Of course, it would depend on someone other than a Ferrari driver winning the World Drivers' Championship.