- 2,208
If you're not very old, you've been robbed.
If you're in your twenties, or you're younger, your future has been stolen from you. You and your children, and especially your grandchildren, are going to live very different lives from those of us who have come before you, and "different" is not going to mean "better".
We graybeards out here have taken from you vast quantities of that precious commodity that our modern industrialized technological civilization has been built upon: Oil. We've pulled it out from under your feet, run off with it, and burned it up, using it to fuel our spoiled, pampered, excessive way of life. We've squandered it like there was no tomorrow. We didn't care because we calculated that there was plenty to go around among us for the duration of our lives. We knew that when it finally started getting really scarce, it wouldn't be our problem, because we'd be dead.
Problem is, you won't be dead. You'll be very much alive, and you're going to be the ones who will have to figure out how to get by with a steadily-declining supply of the miraculous stuff. You'll have to deal with the fantastic price increases that we're only now seeing the very beginnings of. You're going to see what happens when the stuff your world has been built upon becomes the most precious commodity on earth.
I'm reluctant to post this link, because when you go through the article and try to pick it apart point-by-point and discount what this guy is saying about what the dwindling oil supply will really mean, you won't have much luck. He makes a lot of very valid points, and when you put them all together, the scope of the problem is truly dizzying in its vastness:
The Oil Crash and You
Note what he says about the "500,000 products" made from oil, the lack of fuel for all means of moving people and products (and airliners in particular), and the effects on food production. Scroll through the whole thing. Its a very comprehensive look at how much the plentiful supply of cheap petroleum has meant to us.
That's how important it has been to us all, and yet we seem determined to not leave much of it for you and your offspring. We're still in deep denial about what is coming. We're burning it up faster than ever. Incredible as it seems, global oil usage is still increasing. Here's a little stat for you to think about when you're trying to get to sleep tonight: Global oil consumption is now at an all-time high of 84 million barrels a day (yes, PER DAY), a 3.5% increase over last year! The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that, at the current rate of increase, demand will rise to 103 million barrels a day by 2015.
"Peak Oil"
That's the phrase used to descibe the time when global oil production peaks out, and starts its inevitable permanent decline. "Peak Oil" is the day we hit the top of the production curve and begin to slide down the other side. Dr. M. King Huppert predicted when that would happen back in the '50s. He basically said that it would happen right about...now:
The Huppert Peak for World Oil
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a study about this, and the so-called "Hirsch Report" is the result. Here's a synopsis:
Hirsch Report Synopsis
And here's the whole thing:
The Hirsch Report
You should take a look at the "Executive Summary", the "Wild Cards", and the "Summary and Concluding Remarks", at least.
Its not a matter of whether or not it will happen. The only question is when it will actually occur. George W. Bush said it himself last March: "In terms of world supply, I think if you look at all the statistics, demand is outracing supply, and supplies are getting tight." The hard fact is that in the not-too-distant future, we simply aren't going to have enough oil available to meet our needs. Nobody disputes this. This isn't like the global warming debate. This really is a no-brainer.
The only "debate" is whether or not the permanent shortage will begin in a few decades, or just a few years, or if, in fact, it has already begun and we are about to start seeing the real effects of it. There are many expert opinions about when it will happen, with the most pessimistic saying we're in it now or it will start next year, and the most optimistic saying demand will be met through 2025.
All those estimates, however, depend upon the accuracy of oil reserve statistics, and it turns out we know a lot less about what's really left than we thought we did. In fact, its really starting to look like many oil-producing nations (members of OPEC, the Organization of Oil-Producing Countries) have been blowing smoke about their oil reserves, so they could keep production up and make more money in the short term. Take a look at this chart:
"The table's green areas show where countries reported that their oil stocks were "not declining", even though oil was being taken out, steadily emptying the wells.The red areas show where countries spectacularly increased the reported quantities of oil in stock, so that OPEC would recognize them as bigger suppliers and allow them to export more, increasing revenues."
Huge sudden increases in reserves, and the lack of any decline, even though they've been pumping like crazy. The "never-emptying reserves" phenomenon. Magic? Not hardly. Try outright lying, instead.
Saudi Arabia - The cushion could be a rock
The conventional wisdom has always been that mighty Saudi Arabia, custodians of 25% of the world's so-called "proven" oil reserves, was a near-inexhaustible source of increased oil production that we could depend on to make up any shortfalls in supply. Well, maybe it isn't. Maybe the Saudis are completely maxed out right now, and their capacity is already beginning to taper off. Here's the story of what Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker who consults with the Bush Administration, says about what may really be going on in The Kingdom:
Al-Jazeera story on Simmons
Simmons article
This guy agrees with him:
He seconds the motion
If they're right, and the Saudis can't pick up the slack, then we're at the top of the worldwide production bell curve right now.
I posted these in the global warming thread a while back. They're good as fuel for thought:
Hope
More hope
Total disaster
Let's hope the first two are right.
Again, on behalf of all of us responsible for this, I apologize. As a native-born American, I have plenty to be sorry for, don't I? Take a look at this:
We Yanks are addicted to the stuff. We don't actually shoot it into our veins, but we sure act like we do. We just can't get enough of it. We're going to miss it more than anybody else, aren't we? This is going to be a very tough habit to kick. Things could get ugly.
And right on cue, we start seeing this sort of thing:
Oh, great. A whole new movie genre
Don't laugh about the twenty-dollar-a-gallon gas. My sister just got back from Turkey. Gas is eight bucks a gallon there already.
I have a 15-year-old son. I haven't broken the news to him yet about what life is going be like for him when he's in his thirties and forties. Maybe I won't. Maybe I'll just let him enjoy the ride for as long as he can. He'll be getting the message soon enough...
If you're in your twenties, or you're younger, your future has been stolen from you. You and your children, and especially your grandchildren, are going to live very different lives from those of us who have come before you, and "different" is not going to mean "better".
We graybeards out here have taken from you vast quantities of that precious commodity that our modern industrialized technological civilization has been built upon: Oil. We've pulled it out from under your feet, run off with it, and burned it up, using it to fuel our spoiled, pampered, excessive way of life. We've squandered it like there was no tomorrow. We didn't care because we calculated that there was plenty to go around among us for the duration of our lives. We knew that when it finally started getting really scarce, it wouldn't be our problem, because we'd be dead.
Problem is, you won't be dead. You'll be very much alive, and you're going to be the ones who will have to figure out how to get by with a steadily-declining supply of the miraculous stuff. You'll have to deal with the fantastic price increases that we're only now seeing the very beginnings of. You're going to see what happens when the stuff your world has been built upon becomes the most precious commodity on earth.
I'm reluctant to post this link, because when you go through the article and try to pick it apart point-by-point and discount what this guy is saying about what the dwindling oil supply will really mean, you won't have much luck. He makes a lot of very valid points, and when you put them all together, the scope of the problem is truly dizzying in its vastness:
The Oil Crash and You
Note what he says about the "500,000 products" made from oil, the lack of fuel for all means of moving people and products (and airliners in particular), and the effects on food production. Scroll through the whole thing. Its a very comprehensive look at how much the plentiful supply of cheap petroleum has meant to us.
That's how important it has been to us all, and yet we seem determined to not leave much of it for you and your offspring. We're still in deep denial about what is coming. We're burning it up faster than ever. Incredible as it seems, global oil usage is still increasing. Here's a little stat for you to think about when you're trying to get to sleep tonight: Global oil consumption is now at an all-time high of 84 million barrels a day (yes, PER DAY), a 3.5% increase over last year! The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that, at the current rate of increase, demand will rise to 103 million barrels a day by 2015.
"Peak Oil"
That's the phrase used to descibe the time when global oil production peaks out, and starts its inevitable permanent decline. "Peak Oil" is the day we hit the top of the production curve and begin to slide down the other side. Dr. M. King Huppert predicted when that would happen back in the '50s. He basically said that it would happen right about...now:
The Huppert Peak for World Oil
The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a study about this, and the so-called "Hirsch Report" is the result. Here's a synopsis:
Hirsch Report Synopsis
And here's the whole thing:
The Hirsch Report
You should take a look at the "Executive Summary", the "Wild Cards", and the "Summary and Concluding Remarks", at least.
Its not a matter of whether or not it will happen. The only question is when it will actually occur. George W. Bush said it himself last March: "In terms of world supply, I think if you look at all the statistics, demand is outracing supply, and supplies are getting tight." The hard fact is that in the not-too-distant future, we simply aren't going to have enough oil available to meet our needs. Nobody disputes this. This isn't like the global warming debate. This really is a no-brainer.
The only "debate" is whether or not the permanent shortage will begin in a few decades, or just a few years, or if, in fact, it has already begun and we are about to start seeing the real effects of it. There are many expert opinions about when it will happen, with the most pessimistic saying we're in it now or it will start next year, and the most optimistic saying demand will be met through 2025.
All those estimates, however, depend upon the accuracy of oil reserve statistics, and it turns out we know a lot less about what's really left than we thought we did. In fact, its really starting to look like many oil-producing nations (members of OPEC, the Organization of Oil-Producing Countries) have been blowing smoke about their oil reserves, so they could keep production up and make more money in the short term. Take a look at this chart:
"The table's green areas show where countries reported that their oil stocks were "not declining", even though oil was being taken out, steadily emptying the wells.The red areas show where countries spectacularly increased the reported quantities of oil in stock, so that OPEC would recognize them as bigger suppliers and allow them to export more, increasing revenues."
Huge sudden increases in reserves, and the lack of any decline, even though they've been pumping like crazy. The "never-emptying reserves" phenomenon. Magic? Not hardly. Try outright lying, instead.
Saudi Arabia - The cushion could be a rock
The conventional wisdom has always been that mighty Saudi Arabia, custodians of 25% of the world's so-called "proven" oil reserves, was a near-inexhaustible source of increased oil production that we could depend on to make up any shortfalls in supply. Well, maybe it isn't. Maybe the Saudis are completely maxed out right now, and their capacity is already beginning to taper off. Here's the story of what Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker who consults with the Bush Administration, says about what may really be going on in The Kingdom:
Al-Jazeera story on Simmons
Simmons article
This guy agrees with him:
He seconds the motion
If they're right, and the Saudis can't pick up the slack, then we're at the top of the worldwide production bell curve right now.
I posted these in the global warming thread a while back. They're good as fuel for thought:
Hope
More hope
Total disaster
Let's hope the first two are right.
Again, on behalf of all of us responsible for this, I apologize. As a native-born American, I have plenty to be sorry for, don't I? Take a look at this:
We Yanks are addicted to the stuff. We don't actually shoot it into our veins, but we sure act like we do. We just can't get enough of it. We're going to miss it more than anybody else, aren't we? This is going to be a very tough habit to kick. Things could get ugly.
And right on cue, we start seeing this sort of thing:
Oh, great. A whole new movie genre
Don't laugh about the twenty-dollar-a-gallon gas. My sister just got back from Turkey. Gas is eight bucks a gallon there already.
I have a 15-year-old son. I haven't broken the news to him yet about what life is going be like for him when he's in his thirties and forties. Maybe I won't. Maybe I'll just let him enjoy the ride for as long as he can. He'll be getting the message soon enough...