90th Anniversary Running Of The Le Mans 24 Hours, 22-23 June 2013.

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The flaw I see there is that Audi already has a 2-3sec per lap advantage over Toyota. The question is, can Toyota spending less time in the pits be enough to make up for that gap.

At Spa the Long Tail Audi was 1 second a lap faster than the 2013 Toyota on new tyres but 1 second a lap slower on worn tyres. The question is, did the long tail have the blown diffuser at Spa? Yes = we have a race, no = we have a walk over.
 
Here's my math: I'm going to assume that both cars will average 3:30 laps in the race and that pit entry to pit exit will take, on average, 1:45.

There will be 412 laps completed. Audi will have to make 42 stops 412/10 equals 41.2) and Toyota will have to make 35 (412/35 equals 34.7). 7 stops times 1.75 minutes means Toyota will have a 12.25 minute advantage over Audi. This equates to (again, at 3:30 laps) three and a half laps. Audi will need to run laps of approximately 3:25 to make up this disadvantage. Again, this is assuming quite a bit, including that neither team will run into mechanical/accident/pitstop issues during the race

Nice math work. It puts things into perspective. One thing you might have overlooked though... won't it take Toyota a little longer than Audi to refuel?
 
spooble
Nice math work. It puts things into perspective. One thing you might have overlooked though... won't it take Toyota a little longer than Audi to refuel?

This is true. I didn't mention it though for a few reasons. One, I forgot about it. :lol: Two, I don't know the relative flow rates of the fuel pumps. (If both pumps are set at one liter per second, the difference is three seconds per stop or about 2:28 over the race. That's about one and a half stops handed to Audi.) Three, I was trying to keep the estimate conservative, a la "if Audi can do this they will definitely (instead of maybe) win."
 
Hiya guys! I've been at the circuit for about an hour and a half now. Luckily we got the tent up before a huuuuge downpour. Sitting in it now having some food. Very happy to be back here. Love this place. The atmosphere is a great as ever too.
 
Alan normally starts that car.

I'm not saying McNish isn't an absolute world-class driver, but I wouldn't like him to take the start. We all know what happened two years ago when he took the french flag with a bit of...enthusiasm...

Still, my money is on the "Old guys + Duval" Audi, like it has been every other year. Go Audi! :D
 
With all this talk about the fight between Toyota and Audi, and Porche coming next year its pains me that Peugoet is still not able to grid up. If they did all 4 of these manufactors have won the LM24 in the past and would make for a great 2014 battle!
 
Sad to say that after qualifying my doubts about Toyota's chances of victory are only heightened. When the #8 car came rolling to a stop in Q1 on wednesday I was left wondering what the chances of the Toyota encountering issues in the race were, while the Audi's seemed to run flawlessly at a considerably faster pace than anyone else.

Obviously Toyota should still have the fuel advantage, and if they run without issues that could well win them the race on the grounds of significantly reducing time lost to pit stops, but that requires that nothing goes wrong for Toyota in the race, and, as I have said, I have my doubts in those regards.



In fact, I think it interesting that most of our pre-race speculation is based on the whole "if everything goes smoothly assumption". If there are any extended safety car periods then the reduced fuel consumption that brings to all competitors could easily nullify Toyota's fuel advantage, and, judging by the number of red flags (6) in free practice and qualifying, a wet track could easily cause an accident which could easily bring the safety car out, and rain is forecast to come at some point this weekend.

My predictions and support:

I predict Audi will win, but Toyota may still challenge them. Rebellion will pick up any places lost by retirements or issues for the manufacturer LMP1's and Strakka will retire from on lap 14. I'm supporting anyone who ISN'T Audi.

LMP2 I have no idea who will win, but I'm going to support the GT Academy guys, since I'm a Gran Turismo fan.

In GTE Pro I'm split between supporting Aston Martin and Porsche. On the one hand, Aston have those glorious Gulf liveries, on the other hand PORSCHE. Yeah...

GTE AM... It'd be nice to see a good result for Krohn Racing after all the effort they've put in following that wreck, but I'm not really supporting anyone in this category. Yeah.

With all this talk about the fight between Toyota and Audi, and Porche coming next year its pains me that Peugoet is still not able to grid up. If they did all 4 of these manufactors have won the LM24 in the past and would make for a great 2014 battle!

Toyota have never won Le Mans. They finished second in 1994 and 1999, but even with the mighty speed of the GT-One they still couldn't take outright victory. TECHNICALLY both of those second places were class victories, but the classes in 1990s Le Mans were kind of meaningless beyond GT2, which was the slowest class.
 
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but even with the mighty speed of the GT-One they still couldn't take outright victory.

That was purely down to punctures, though. Toyota had disastrous years in '98 and '99 with their tyres. In terms of pure pace the GT-One was simply a superior car those years.
 
I'd love to see a #2-#7-#12 podium, but I have a feeling that it won't be that way. It's going to be tough to beat Audi without having them fall victim to mechanical woes. I'm predicting a #2-#7-#1 podium in P1.

P2, might as well throw darts at the spotter's guide. My heart goes with the #42 team though, because Gran Turismo.

As for GTE-Pro, it's tough to look past the Astons. I think AF Corse might have something for them, though. I'd love to see Corvette Racing take it, but I don't think they've got the speed this year. :(

GTE-Am has the potential fairy tale ending for Krohn Racing, and I would like to see them pull it off. If they can't, hopefully Labre Competition can at least put their 'Vette on the podium.
 
Kristensen to his 9th? Looks good!
Even though I'm not supporting Audi (as I'd prefer Toyota #8 to take the win), but recognizing the extreme superiority they've shown so far, and if Audi actually has wins... Go Kristensen/McNish/Duval!

P2, might as well throw darts at the spotter's guide. My heart goes with the #42 team though, because Gran Turismo.

Most certainly agreed! In a few years time, I'll be there myself! :crazy:

The GTs, I hope Lamy snatches the win like he did last year with Labre's
(The first time I read that, thought you had written "Vettel"!)! But if he doesn't, I'll be interested in a (Dumas) Porsche or (Fisichella) Ferrari win!

GT-Am, oohhh GT-Am... Eurosport's Le Mans 24 Minutes... I'll be suffering for #77! Gotta admire Dempsey's determination! (As well Patrick Long's desperation! :sly: )
 
That was purely down to punctures, though. Toyota had disastrous years in '98 and '99 with their tyres. In terms of pure pace the GT-One was simply a superior car those years.

the mighty speed of the GT-One

Yes. They did have a lot of punctures. And one of their gearboxes broke. And Thierry Boutsen had a massive crash. They should have won on pace alone, but they didn't. Porsche and BMW did.
 
I suggest reading Toyota's PR. They didnt try to go for a great qualifying pace. They did the opposite and went for a great race car. Its a 24 hour race, showboating in qualifying is pointless. They weren't going to beat Audi on pace so they concentrated on making their car good for long runs. If they can go 12 laps per stint and turn 3:30-3:28's like they showed in practice, Audi will have to respond with running much faster and hope they have a gap big enough to overcome the fuel usage. It amazes me some people ignore or just forget to mention they have LOST around 20% in fuel distance for a gain in time of about 1 second per lap.

Yes, at Spa they ran the blown diffuser, they even ran it at Silverstone. Its not what causes the increased fuel usage, as its "cold blowing". The extra power comes from using your fuel more. They sacrificed efficiency for speed. This is the reason Toyota said the ACO should have looked at the fuel tank size and not just the air restrictor! Diesel doesn't rely so much on the air flow as Petrol to make power. The funny part is Audis engine is 300cc bigger, has a higher energy fuel and runs a turbo! Just think about that for a moment.
 
I'd say the Audi is the better fastest car. But we will have to wait and see who has built the better endurance car, which is what this race is all about.
 
Some people are saying the Vette's (on this thread) don't meet the rules set by the ACO, in what sense. The engine size is in the correct ball park as needed 5.5L. The only car I don't see with in the range is Viper but IMSA and the ACO made rules that make it work (subjective).

Thats nice. Want a cookie for your time or something? Seriously don't get the grief. I'm not here to make friends. I am sharing what I know. If you or anyone else don't like how its said or typed thats a shame. I cant sugar coat words on a screen or convey their tone. Sorry.

So you are basically here to start fights and be a moderate troll or flamer then? Also why do people with very sparse intellectual conversing abilities, stoop to using phrases such as "want a cookie?". Satire isn't your thing you might want to wrap it up and let the rest of us just have a constructive and fun talk about 24h Le Mans.
 
Compared to Peugeot I don't think Toyota isn't that much of a challenge tbh :indiff:, don't get me wrong, they are a challenge but Peugeot seemed much tougher, gosh I wish they come back :(.
 
Some people are saying the Vette's (on this thread) don't meet the rules set by the ACO, in what sense. The engine size is in the correct ball park as needed 5.5L. The only car I don't see with in the range is Viper but IMSA and the ACO made rules that make it work (subjective).

Ah so the ZR1 comes with a 5.5 litre engine might need to tell Chevy that as they are selling ones with a 6.2 litre engine ;) therefore they have to fit a different engine to meet the regs which would then require a waive as it wouldn't be homologated which means it also has to carry penalties.

Why do you think BMW don't enter the Z4 V8.
 
Compared to Peugeot I don't think Toyota isn't that much of a challenge tbh :indiff:, don't get me wrong, they are a challenge but Peugeot seemed much tougher.

Peugeot was way more prepared than Toyota ever was. 6 months before last year's Le Mans, the TS030 only barely ran its first test laps. To come to Le Mans and be as fast as Audi was 6 months later is a huge achievement in my opinion, not sure about you.
 
Peugeot was way more prepared than Toyota ever was. 6 months before last year's Le Mans, the TS030 only barely ran its first test laps. To come to Le Mans and be as fast as Audi was 6 months later is a huge achievement in my opinion, not sure about you.

I admit they did a great job but after all this racing I still think Toyota is not much of a threat to Audi as Peugeot but Toyota is close though.
 
I admit they did a great job but after all this racing I still think Toyota is not much of a threat to Audi as Peugeot but Toyota is close though.

Peugeot only won once in the five races they participated in. You have to remember that Audi has been running Le Mans for 8 years straight without any competition at all, so they've been able to develop all of the rule changes so well onto their cars. You cannot expect a fresh team to instantly win and defeat a manufacturer that has won all but one race on the last 13 years. (I said all but one because Bentley technically was just an Audi as well)
 
Compared to Peugeot I don't think Toyota isn't that much of a challenge tbh :indiff:, don't get me wrong, they are a challenge but Peugeot seemed much tougher, gosh I wish they come back :(.

They are the only true diesel rival against Audi. Gutted that they pulled the plug on their LMP1 program due to budgeting issues.
 
Ah so the ZR1 comes with a 5.5 litre engine might need to tell Chevy that as they are selling ones with a 6.2 litre engine ;) therefore they have to fit a different engine to meet the regs which would then require a waive as it wouldn't be homologated which means it also has to carry penalties.

Why do you think BMW don't enter the Z4 V8.

It's not a different engine. As I recall, they have reduced the stroke length, which is perfectly legal and in line with the rules. By reducing the stroke, they reduce the amount of cc's in the engine. Thus, 5.5 liter. Ferrari did something similar to the F430, which allowed them to have a different restrictor or amount of fuel carried or something like that.

Corvette have no waivers. Quit trolling.

And in theory, BMW COULD enter the Z4. The only reason they didnt was lack of money, as well as a competent team to run them.
 
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Yes bad audi for actually standing up to the challenge of toyota and building a better car.
Audi built a car with potentially advantageous diesel regulations and use an F1-size budget to do so. Not quite a miracle to build a better car with advantages like that.
And in theory, BMW COULD enter the Z4. The only reason they didnt was lack of money, as well as a competent team to run them.
The ACO aren't exactly fond of the Z4 though, mostly because of the V8 engine. It's not a precedent they want to set, allowing engine swaps into GTE from completely different car models. Nevertheless, I'm sure BMW could get homologation with the necessary waivers if they pressed hard enough, but I don't think they've tried to do so (yet).

Edit: Many cars have been given grid place penalties because not every driver was able to lap within 110% of the best time in their class. Strakka, many LMP2s, the #98 Aston and a few GTE-Ams have gone backwards on the grid.
http://www.24h-lemans.com/wpphpFich...tion/24-heures-du-mans-2013-starting-grid.pdf
 
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Peugeot only won once in the five races they participated in. You have to remember that Audi has been running Le Mans for 8 years straight without any competition at all, so they've been able to develop all of the rule changes so well onto their cars. You cannot expect a fresh team to instantly win and defeat a manufacturer that has won all but one race on the last 13 years. (I said all but one because Bentley technically was just an Audi as well)

Actually thats not true. The R8 was a totally different car. The Bentley was a new car, designed new, made new. Mulsannescorner.com has a good write up about it. 👍
 
Actually thats not true. The R8 was a totally different car. The Bentley was a new car, designed new, made new. Mulsannescorner.com has a good write up about it. 👍

...but Audi Sport Team Joest helped the winning car and allowed it's drivers to race with Bentley 👍.
 
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