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- Exorcet
- OE Exorcet
Yes, except I suspect the bolded won't be true for the US and NATO allies, especially if and when drones begin to replace conventional piloted fighters.
It's just too good of a grift to give up. I'm sure there will be reasons we'll end up spending 9 figures per unit on drones for a long time. You wouldn't want to use outdated drone tech would you? And put our safety at risk allowing a drone gap with China?
Historically the US hasn't been blind to numbers or cost effectiveness. The question of price effectiveness of fighters was one of the reasons behind ACEVAL/AIMVAL in the 70's and the lightweight teen series fighters, the F-16 and F-18. Even the F-35 is an example as it's a relatively low cost aircraft for what it offers. The main issue in my mind is that the US is extremely hesitant to shrink its military.
It's not a direct analogy I suppose but this isn't what happening with new aircraft. Russia and China appear to be following the US high/low mix with a large expensive fighter (F-22 equivalent) and a smaller cheaper one (F-35). One of the reasons for this is the accelerating pace of weapons development. Hardware is more difficult to update than software, so having many different kinds of hardware isn't really preferential to having one or two types of hardware that can be quickly adapted via software. Then again, unlike fighters drones might be cheap enough for the hardware cost to not really matter.Yeah definitely. My guess is the rest of the world will have a half dozen or more different types of low cost drones that are specialized to be very good at a specific thing at a low unit cost, and they'll make hundreds/thousands of each model. Meanwhile the US/NATO world will instead have hundreds/low thousands of units of maybe two model types. They'll cost ~$50M per unit as jack of all trades drones that end up so bloated and heavy they're a master of none, all while being too expensive to lose. I'm sure we'll have cheap actually useful ones too but weapons contractors will find reasons for us to buy very expensive drones too. Probably expensive ships to put them on as well!
From what I gather the next generation of fighters will be networked weapons. The large expensive fighter may remain, but might be more of a command/sensor vehicle. It will use its superior range and sensor payload to launch and direct smaller and cheaper drones to do the actual fighting for it.