Arab spring uprises Tunisia/Egypt/Libya/Syria

Dotini
Edit: As of this hour, the Egyptian Army has announced that the people have legitimate grievances, and the Army will not fire upon them. Huge crowds gathering in the central square of Cairo include women and children. The people have won and now hold the upper hand. It's easy to see Mubarek gone within days if not hours.i
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I would be really surprised if Mubarak wasn't gone by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It will probably depend heavily on just how many people show up, and how many strike.
 
YSSMAN
I would be really surprised if Mubarak wasn't gone by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It will probably depend heavily on just how many people show up, and how many strike.
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Frank Wisner, the hatchet man, well-beloved by Mubarek, is now on the ground in Cairo. The end is near!

Forgive me if I cheekily wonder where Mubarek will seek asylum - Jurusalem?
 
Omnis
Oh yeah, it's not hard to start a revolution if you do it right. The Soviets mastered that art. I remember reading Michael Scheuer and basically what it is is a bunch of gang warfare on a grand scale. Each of the governments are just like an official mafia, and then there is the terrorist gang that is trying to topple the governments. The people are just caught in the middle. If the balance of power is affected, the people suffer under the actions of the newly-leveraged group.

It's basically a big mess is what it is. Yup yup. The challenge will be to see which group of people can buck off both influences and start their own business up right. The problem of course is that they then have both influences working together to usurp as much power as possible and put them back in the same situation from which they rose.
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Right. If history has anything to say about it, we can predict that the core group who started this uprising will be the new group to take power. This is how revolts against governments work. Destroy the oppressive government with anarchy, and then kill the anarchy with oppression from a new government. That's why staying true to America's founding rules is so direly important when it comes to overhauling our own system.
 
I read something funny on Judge Nap's facebook feed: "Is Mubarak in de-nile? Will he stick around?" Someone replies, "If he sticks around, he really will be in the nile. Floating."
 
Dotini
For decades the US has stoutly supported the dictators in these countries, all the while talking big (when it was convenient) about human rights and democracy. ... Now Obama and the US are faced with a huge dilemma: Support their pet dictators or support the legitimate democratic aspirations of oppressed peoples. How Obama responds will reveal much about his own deepest character ...
Dotini
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Very strange thought for me.
These are internal affairs of a country, why would the US or anyone else intervene?

When one country declares war to an other country, all other countries have a right to support the country being attracted. However internal affairs are internal affairs.

On this point I believe that the encouragement of world leaders towards the Tunisian people taking their future in their hands is part of the motivation now in Egypt.
They know there is huge international pressure on the armed forces (police or military) by the international journalists.

However the suppresson of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, were received with "Criticism" from the international community, I doubt this states a lot about the world leaders at that time.
 
Vince_Fiero
These are internal affairs of a country, why would the US or anyone else intervene?
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The US has been interwoven in Egyptian affairs for many decades. Their Army and Air Force is bought and paid for by the US. Their pilots and officers train in the US. US military liaison officers are embedded within Egyptian units. The vital treaty between Egypt and Israel which holds the entire Middle East together was engineered and paid for by US President Jimmy Carter.

Now, I'm not saying this is right or wrong (hint: it's wrong), but that's the way it is. To "intervene" at this point would amount to dropping the polite hint to Mubarek that, "Look, old chap, it's time go", and making discreet arrangements with general officers such as Omar Suleiman, now Vice-President, as to the recommended procedures for an orderly transition.

Kind regards,
Dotini
 
The Suez canal is of huge strategic importance to pretty much any country with a navy. Egypt needs to be controlled by any power that wants to send forces easily around the oceans.
 
blaaah
The Suez canal is of huge strategic importance to pretty much any country with a navy. Egypt needs to be controlled by any power that wants to send forces easily around the oceans.
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Actually I do believe there is a lot of tension on the stock markets due to this at the moment. So not only forces, but also raw materials, etc...


@ Dotini: I do believe that the history of Israel and the countries around it, can be a good example for what to do "wrong". However this could be a complete different thread.

P.S.: more proof of the global village, a spark in the north of Africa and the whole world smells smoke.
 
Pffffft! Lol! The king of Jordan fired the entire government. That's hilarious.
 
Now we have Mubarak stepping down... In September...

According to the internets, if Mubarak doesn't step down by Friday, things are going to get crazy, which is why Obama is pushing for him to step down now.
 
They keep mentioning "People Power." I haven't seen a single flower in a gun-barrel yet...

The balance of power is well and truly upset in the Middle East. You have riots against the Hezbollah... you have dictators seeing their military support dissolve from under them... could we be seeing the Muslim renaissance?
 
Well I hope so. Hopefully the muslim world gets tired of having such a bad rap and bucks off all these fools.
 
I'm not confident that they won't get rid of all these fools just to have new fools replace them. That's usually the way things like this turn out.
 
If you have a regime change through an active power grab with arms, then that's bad.

If you have one where the army refuses to use its power, then that's a bit better. We've been through two of those... and while the heads put in have, at times, been almost as bad as the people they replaced, having an army with... morals... kind of hurts the next regime's ability to become an authoritarian dictatorship.
 
I sure hope it works out that way, but I'm still not confident. Morals are nice and all, but even when they're written down and signed by a bunch of rich old white men they still don't seem to work.
 
I am not satisfied by Mubarak's speech .What happened last week here is unacceptable so much for America's Human rights and Foreign Policy .
 
blaaah
Spread to Jordan and Syria...
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The radio here mentioned that the situation is tense around Jordan, mainly due to the closeness to Saudi Arabia.

On the other hand a specialist also did not exclude that the situation in Egypt will take months before there is an effective change.
The current messages from the military are not encouraging.
 
I'm watching the news right now and it's getting pretty serious. Pro-government supporter turned on anti-government protestors with razor blades, machetes, street signs and anything else they could cause damage with. I guess I didn't realise how bad it was in Egypt right now, partly due to our crap news coverage of anything.
 
Joey D
I'm watching the news right now and it's getting pretty serious. Pro-government supporter turned on anti-government protestors with razor blades, machetes, street signs and anything else they could cause damage with. I guess I didn't realise how bad it was in Egypt right now, partly due to our crap news coverage of anything.
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That may just be sensationalism for the western cameras too. That's kind of how things work when there are TV crews around-- same thing with the 100% fruitcake tea party people, right?
 
Omnis
That may just be sensationalism for the western cameras too. That's kind of how things work when there are TV crews around-- same thing with the 100% fruitcake tea party people, right?
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I doubt it. I think things have finally boiled over there. Military vehicles were over turned and the groups are charging and attacking each other. I'd watch Al Jezzera if I could to get another look at it and see what's going on.

And I can't believe something like that hasn't happened with a tea party rally and I really hope it doesn't come to that. I may hate the tea party people but I'd never want to see violence like that break out in the country.
 
Unbelivable The Government is bribing people to go down and Support this 🤬 President and fight with anybody against him .Our President isn't just a Tyrant he is a Murderer a theif a thug Do something Obama
 
At this hour MSNBC is reporting government supporters are being bussed into the area. They are throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails. Maybe some have swords and clubs. Riders on horses and camels are dragging down some protesters. Army troops are in the area, but besides an occasional gunshot into the air, they are letting the scene play out.
 
The protesters are now back in control of central Cairo, they beat off the pro president supporters in the end.
The army are completely passive.
 

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