Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
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UKMikey
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This is an awful lot of posting in a thread about the UK for someone who once claimed to be finished "with the perfidious Albion" and would never engage with British subjects again.
And an awful lot of the typical empty posting at that.
And an awful lot of the typical empty posting at that.
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There is growing speculation that the UK and EU are to agree a Brexit deal today, and that Theresa May is willing/planning to throw the DUP and the Eurosceptics under the bus in favour of making the necessary concessions in order to get Labour onside.
That will mean that her Brexit plan can make it through the Commons - but it will also spell the end of her leadership as Tory MPs are bound to call for a vote of no confidence.
As for Brexit, it now looks increasingly likely that the deal will involve staying in the Customs Union and Single Market - it will 'respect' the referendum result in name only, but crucially it will pass Labour's criteria for acceptance.
For Leave voters and hard Brexiteers alike, it is nothing short of a total defeat. The EU will lose/concede absolutely nothing - it will be business as usual for them, meanwhile the UK loses all influence in the EU permanently, while likely staying subject to its rules and regulations indefinitely, in return for allowing the UK to continue trading with the EU. Also, the single biggest advantage of Brexit - the UK gaining the ability to strike free trade deals with other countries, will almost certainly be lost.
For a pro-Remain person like me, it is a hollow victory - the UK will gain nothing from this at all, but arguably that is better than losing even more than our seat at the EU table. But make no mistake, it is far, far worse a situation than if we had simply opted not to leave at all - in other words, I would expect that most Remainers will be unhappy, but most (if not all) Leavers will be apopletic.
So long Mrs. May, it was nice knowing you.
That will mean that her Brexit plan can make it through the Commons - but it will also spell the end of her leadership as Tory MPs are bound to call for a vote of no confidence.
As for Brexit, it now looks increasingly likely that the deal will involve staying in the Customs Union and Single Market - it will 'respect' the referendum result in name only, but crucially it will pass Labour's criteria for acceptance.
For Leave voters and hard Brexiteers alike, it is nothing short of a total defeat. The EU will lose/concede absolutely nothing - it will be business as usual for them, meanwhile the UK loses all influence in the EU permanently, while likely staying subject to its rules and regulations indefinitely, in return for allowing the UK to continue trading with the EU. Also, the single biggest advantage of Brexit - the UK gaining the ability to strike free trade deals with other countries, will almost certainly be lost.
For a pro-Remain person like me, it is a hollow victory - the UK will gain nothing from this at all, but arguably that is better than losing even more than our seat at the EU table. But make no mistake, it is far, far worse a situation than if we had simply opted not to leave at all - in other words, I would expect that most Remainers will be unhappy, but most (if not all) Leavers will be apopletic.
So long Mrs. May, it was nice knowing you.
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Politico are now reporting that three separate diplomatic sources have told them that a provisional Brexit deal 'has been reached' but that it will not be formally announced tonight...
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-divorce-deal-reached/
The UK government are vehemently denying it, apparently, but it might explain why Dominic Raab rushed to Brussels this evening for an unscheduled 75 minute-long meeting with Michel Barnier.
edit: The BBC are reporting that a deal has not been reached and that the Irish backstop is still the sticking point...
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edit 2: I'm finding it very strange that supposedly high level diplomatic sources in Europe had reported that a deal had been done when it clearly hasn't. They are nowhere near a deal on the Irish backstop i.e. they are still at square one - so what is going on?!
I'm beginning to suspect that there is credence to the idea that the EU are positioning themselves as the deal-makers and that the UK are the deal-breakers - obviously, No Deal is not good for anyone, but in the event of No Deal, the prize becomes who doesn't get the blame for it.
It is also becoming even more apparent that the EU can't be negotiated with.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-divorce-deal-reached/
The UK government are vehemently denying it, apparently, but it might explain why Dominic Raab rushed to Brussels this evening for an unscheduled 75 minute-long meeting with Michel Barnier.
edit: The BBC are reporting that a deal has not been reached and that the Irish backstop is still the sticking point...
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edit 2: I'm finding it very strange that supposedly high level diplomatic sources in Europe had reported that a deal had been done when it clearly hasn't. They are nowhere near a deal on the Irish backstop i.e. they are still at square one - so what is going on?!
I'm beginning to suspect that there is credence to the idea that the EU are positioning themselves as the deal-makers and that the UK are the deal-breakers - obviously, No Deal is not good for anyone, but in the event of No Deal, the prize becomes who doesn't get the blame for it.
It is also becoming even more apparent that the EU can't be negotiated with.
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@Touring Mars sounds like the same news as last week; a deals been struck! We just need to bang our heads together to get Ireland sorted... oh wait..
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Is it possible a deal has been struck but they're scrambling about trying to formulate the announcement so it's worded in a way it won't spark riots on the streets from both leavers and remainers?
As you say, the DUP will be thrown under the bus and Labour will take power and have to deal with the fallout. So all the characters that instigated this nonsense will be out of the picture?
As you say, the DUP will be thrown under the bus and Labour will take power and have to deal with the fallout. So all the characters that instigated this nonsense will be out of the picture?
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I am now convinced that it will not be sorted - neither side can give any ground, and it will probably wreck both the Withdrawal Agreement and the trade deal negotiations as well.
It is deeply troubling that the EU seem to have zero regard for the UK's sovereignty - it is becoming increasingly clear that EU really does not respect sovereignty at all and that its own legal order takes precedence over all other considerations. The train wreck that is Brexit will likely be a harbinger for things to come for the EU - its utter inability to compromise (except when it suits itself to do so) will only hasten its demise.
I think this was the plan, but it has failed. Theresa May has staked everything on her strategy of ignoring the hard Brexiteers (and the DUP) and appealing to pro-Remain MPs (including Labour) in order to deliver a 'Soft Brexit', but it has failed.
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Indeed, though it’s not surprising.
This whole idiotic affaire wasn’t even remotely planned or practically thought about before hand by any of the involved parties.
Ireland was the problem from day one and it wasn’t ever addressed. Now the government has decided that we can concede on everything else and get (the peoples(!))Brexit! ...without actually solving the unsolvable.
I don’t know where we go from here. But it’s looking increasingly like we’ll get two outcomes, no-deal or another vote. I can’t see how any ‘deal’ can ever be brokered...
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Theresa May lives to fight another day, as it would appear that it was her who scuppered the deal last night.
On the reversal of Article 50, one must bear in mind that the whole UK-EU relationship is at stake here and that what we want is only part of the story - while one could argue that the EU has little to gain from forcing the UK out without a deal, it should also be remembered that it does stand to gain substantially from allowing the UK to leave the EU on a Norway-style deal - in other words, while reversing Article 50 would be OK for the EU, it is not the best possible outcome for them.
Also, as I have said a few times already, reversing Article 50 is much easier said than done, and it does not equate to simply going back to the way things were pre-referendum - at this juncture it would cause as many problems as it would solve.
The main problem right now is the lack of a time limit on the Irish backstop 'solution' - the EU insist that the backstop is indefinite, but as has just been demonstrated, that will not fly. The PM will now have to insist on a time limit by which the backstop expires, otherwise there can be no deal.
On the reversal of Article 50, one must bear in mind that the whole UK-EU relationship is at stake here and that what we want is only part of the story - while one could argue that the EU has little to gain from forcing the UK out without a deal, it should also be remembered that it does stand to gain substantially from allowing the UK to leave the EU on a Norway-style deal - in other words, while reversing Article 50 would be OK for the EU, it is not the best possible outcome for them.
Also, as I have said a few times already, reversing Article 50 is much easier said than done, and it does not equate to simply going back to the way things were pre-referendum - at this juncture it would cause as many problems as it would solve.
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I agree with you, but one must remember that the EU was based on the foundation of ensuring peace in Europe.
While Brexit has and will continue to hurt and damage the U.K., I don’t think forcing us into ‘exile’ will fly as it goes against the reason the EU exists.
While I agree, we can never have it how it used to be, I still feel that reversal is better than suicide.
The person who steps to the edge contemplating jumping, once convinced back, still needs help and support in order to become a fully functioning and happy member of society, after all.
I don’t think ending up weaker, but with trade and international commerce intact, is in anyway comparable to ‘no-deal’.
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By that analogy, the UK will permanently be on life support from the EU...
Obviously, there are sound economic reasons to stay in the Single Market - but in order to do so, the UK must accept EU law in its entirety. Far from leaving the EU, it would essentially leave the UK fully signed up to the EU but without any representation. I would expect this to face immediate legal challenge in the UK.
At the moment, it is looking more and more like the Doomsday scenario might play out - the only 'solution' that delivers Brexit, respects the integrity of the UK and the integrity of the European single market... a hard border in Ireland.
I'm not sure the EU would make the UK bend over so much, after all that would merely stoke anti-EU sentiment further and not actually solve the issue.
Like I said, the EU was deigned to avert war in Europe, forcing a hard border in Ireland and capitulating the UK for a dodgy referendum would somewhat go against that notion.
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The risk is you go against that ''dodgey'' referendum and have the voter base throw you out for going against the will of the people.
It's a dangerous precedent, even if it's for the ''better'' of the country economically, but who knows if that is why the majority voted that way.
It's a dangerous precedent, even if it's for the ''better'' of the country economically, but who knows if that is why the majority voted that way.
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The EU haven't conceded an inch - they won't and they can't. The UK either agrees to what the EU have to offer or they go it alone.
As I've said before, a hard border in Ireland is practically and politically impossible - so what happens when the Brexit outcome forces no other option?
It is, of course, impossible to say with any certainty - but I believe that reality on the ground will trump both the EU and UK's legal obligations - in other words, a hard border may be legally necessary, but it will not materialise. That will leave both the UK and Ireland in breach of WTO rules and EU law, respectively. But what of it? In the time it takes to erect and implement an actual hard border in Ireland, there will surely be technological and practical solutions available to make such a border redundant anyway (Hell might also freeze over first as well). Ireland and the UK will almost certainly have to negotiate a bilateral special arrangement - in many regards they already have - that will infuriate the EU but there will be literally nothing they can do about it other than to sanction one of their own members (Ireland), who have done absolutely nothing to bring this situation upon themselves.
This situation could be avoided by the EU agreeing to a time limited backstop, but I fear they won't.
True enough, but I'm not sure that will lead them to castrating us. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic... but my understanding of why the EU has laid out it's terms and then never moved is that it doesn't actually want Brexit, at all. AND has the strongest negotiating stance possible.
I'm not sure. I don't know what you mean by technological solution... that seems akin to "well I want brexit and politicians will just have to figure it out, it's their job after all!"
But I don't like the idea of a theoretical hard border anymore than an actual hard border, the troubles wen't that long ago and some groups might be looking for anything to kick off again.
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I find it interesting that we never seem to hear the other side of this coin.
Stripped of all other issues, Brexit will see the EU lose 17% of its GDP and 8% of its income. Depending on the trade deals, Brexit might affect the UK's economy, by making it harder to export stuff and more expensive to import stuff, but it will directly affect the EU's by slashing its value by a sixth and losing nearly a tenth of its income* overnight. If Brexit happens, that will happen regardless of any other considerations.
If everyone keeps going Hard Brexit, No Deal, the EU will lose access to seamless free-trade with its third largest export market (after USA and China) and second largest supplier (after China)** of goods and services - and, worse still, the UK is the number one supplier of financial services (something the EU cannot move without considerable expense, running into the billions with ease). That will then make it more expensive for EU citizens and businesses to get money - which could be a catastrophe for Eurozone countries already struggling economically, like Italy.
On that basis, rather than the EU being immovable on the grounds of punishing us for leaving and discouraging anyone else from doing the same, it might simply be a tactic to make Brexit look as awful as possible to hope it's overturned by popular vote because it will be devastating to the EU. Once it's inevitable it simply won't be in the EU's interests to stick to its guns on trading with the UK, because the direct and unavoidable effects of the UK leaving are already bad enough. It's going to have to budge once Brexit is inevitable, or risk damaging itself so much that, regardless of the bad deal for the UK meant to dissuade other nations from leaving, other nations have to leave or face collapse.
*Although I recall something about the contributions not stopping immediately, rather tapering off over three-ish years.
**Outside the EU27; Within the EU28, Germany is the largest exporter and importer, but once out of the EU28, the UK will become the third largest customer and second largest supplier.
This is basically my point, but worded more coherently.
Brexit benefits literally no-one (bar the small elite), but the damage has already been done to the UK. The EU stands nothing to gain from a no-deal Brexit and so, my feeling/thought is that once this comes to ahead we will get a vote and Art.50 we be retracted.
