Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[baldgye]

Maybe it's not a lie to think there is all to play for when two parties are still negotiating? The EU is floundering under enormous pressures and intractable weakness/problems of its own. The pragmatic negotiator will realize this and prepare to turn up the heat on a compromised and wounded negotiating party. "Chaos is a ladder" - George RR Martin, A Game of Thrones

Ok, so it's a ladder;

*Put's a foot on the bottom rung of said ladder*
*foot gets slapped off*
*Put's a foot on the bottom rung of said ladder*
*foot gets slapped off*
*Put's a foot on the bottom rung of said ladder*
*foot gets slapped off*

passerby; "What are you doing?"

"climbing the ladder"

 

[TenEightyOne]

"Chaos is a ladder" - George RR Martin, A Game of Thrones

The longer quote works in context too, despite the central idea being a bit ropey (pun not intended).

Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again. The fall breaks them. And some, are given a chance to climb. They refuse, they cling to the realm or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is.

 

[Touring Mars]

floundering under enormous pressures and intractable weakness/problems of its own. The pragmatic negotiator will realize this and prepare to turn up the heat on a compromised and wounded negotiating party.

The trouble is, both sides believe the other is the wounded party.

 

[Touring Mars]

Apparently Theresa May has said that she could allow Northern Ireland to remain part of the Single Market as per the EU's demands, provided the plan is approved by the Stormont assembly (in Northern Ireland) first.

One full internet cookie to whoever can spot the slight problem with this idea...

 

[polysmut]

Apparently Theresa May has said that she could allow Northern Ireland to remain part of the Single Market as per the EU's demands, provided the plan is approved by the Stormont assembly (in Northern Ireland) first.

One full internet cookie to whoever can spot the slight problem with this idea...

Stormont has been closed for a while. Cookie?

 

[Touring Mars]

Stormont has been closed for a while. Cookie?

👍

https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/160212_em_cookieday.jpg

 

[DK]

Who knows, maybe the DUP will take a leaf out of their founder's book and decide based on the fact that they may be British, but their cows are Irish.

 

[Touring Mars]

Finally, Labour have made their stance on Brexit clear... they don't have a 🤬 clue either!

 

[baldgye]

Finally, Labour have made their stance on Brexit clear... they don't have a 🤬 clue either!

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...t-referendum-should-not-include-remain-option

Shadow chancellor McDonnell: new Brexit referendum should not include remain option


https://news.sky.com/story/labour-c...dy-is-ruling-out-remain-as-an-option-11508213

Labour conference: Sir Keir Starmer insists 'nobody is ruling out Remain as an option'

 

[TenEightyOne]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...t-referendum-should-not-include-remain-option

Shadow chancellor McDonnell: new Brexit referendum should not include remain option


https://news.sky.com/story/labour-c...dy-is-ruling-out-remain-as-an-option-11508213

Labour conference: Sir Keir Starmer insists 'nobody is ruling out Remain as an option'

McDonnell later completed a 360 on that. Now it remains to be seen (unless they voted while I was in transit) whether Conference vote that their "people's vote" should include a "Remain" option. I disagreed with such an option a few months ago but given that things are looking rather unworkable I wonder if the people should at least be polled now they know what they know. Everything they knew before was largely what-ifs and bollocks.

 

[homeforsummer]

McDonnell later completed a 360 on that. Now it remains to be seen (unless they voted while I was in transit) whether Conference vote that their "people's vote" should include a "Remain" option. I disagreed with such an option a few months ago but given that things are looking rather unworkable I wonder if the people should at least be polled now they know what they know. Everything they knew before was largely what-ifs and bollocks.

What do we think the chances are that previous Leavers won't double-down on their choices after spending the last year and a bit being insulted for being Leavers, and previous non-voting Remainers won't be complacent enough to think "it can't possibly happen again" and once again not bother going out to vote?

 

[Touring Mars]

As I've said before, there cannot be another simple 'in-out' referendum vote, because Article 50 has been triggered, and until the legality of unilaterally revoking Article 50 is decided (by guess who, the European Court of Justice!), then it will remain the case that a vote to 'Remain' could well fall on deaf ears, even if it were legally/practically possible to even hold such a vote in the time left.

The final deal between the UK and the EU will be announced in mid-November (if there even is one) - but if there isn't one in November, then when do you call for a vote? Labour's great plan is to reject the deal anyway, then call for a General Election (which they may not get), then call for a referendum where the question cannot even be defined yet (let alone what the result may 'mean') - and all this is meant to happen in enough time to then approach the EU with a request to revoke Article 50, which may or may not be struck down legally by the ECJ. If it is struck down, then it will most likely need to be decided and ratified unanimously (as per Article 49) by the remaining member states. And all of this needs to happen before March 29.

The only thing that made any sense from Labour today was that they may seek to extend the Article 50 process - but that assumes that they are in power (what are the chances?!), and that alone will not actually make any difference to the negotiations. It will, however, give the EU plenty of time to think about the terms of our continuing membership. This is what Starmer hasn't been so quick to point out - that 'Remain' could well mean something quite different to what people think it means... as I said before, in the first referendum, a Remain result meant nothing happens, and life goes on exactly as it did before... not so any more. Whether we like it or not, the UK's official and legally binding action to trigger Article 50 has changed everything and handed the EU a glorious opportunity to renegotiate the terms of our membership; and depending on our own actions, we may find ourselves in a situation where we are compelled to accept those terms.

 

[UKMikey]

What do we think the chances are that previous Leavers won't double-down on their choices after spending the last year and a bit being insulted for being Leavers

I wonder who's doing the insulting. Those filthy Remoaners from Project Fear, maybe?

It's not as if Leavers have even been given a childish nickname yet.

 

[baldgye]

I wonder who's doing the insulting. Those filthy Remoaners from Project Fear, maybe?

It's not as if Leavers have even been given a childish nickname yet.

Brexit hasn’t exactly done leavers any favours either... it’s not clear there are no upsides. Even the leave camps have abandoned the lies

 

[homeforsummer]

I wonder who's doing the insulting. Those filthy Remoaners from Project Fear, maybe?

It's not as if Leavers have even been given a childish nickname yet.

Neither side has been particularly adult, but given most of Remain's rhetoric before and after the vote itself has been along the lines of Leavers are old, stupid, racist or a combination of the above, it's not necessarily a persuasive strategy for a better alternative. It didn't work very well in the US elections, either.

 

[baldgye]

Neither side has been particularly adult, but given most of Remain's rhetoric before and after the vote itself has been along the lines of Leavers are old, stupid, racist or a combination of the above, it's not necessarily a persuasive strategy for a better alternative. It didn't work very well in the US elections, either.

Nasty comments online or badly spelt Guardian editorials aren't really comparable to national newspapers attacking anything and anyone who might even consider 'slowing' down Brexit...

 

[mustafur]

Oh yes, those paper things that no one reads anymore.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Oh yes, those paper things that no one reads anymore.

Not sure if sarcasm... but with the "top titles" circulating more than 10 million copies per month between them somebody must be reading some of them.

 

[baldgye]

Not sure if sarcasm... but with the "top titles" circulating more than 10 million copies per month between them somebody must be reading some of them.

This particular garbage also has an online sister publication, MailOnline... which I guess no one reads either...

...199.4 million unique monthly visitors in December 2014...

Globally, MailOnline is the most visited English-language newspaper website

Via

 

[homeforsummer]

Nasty comments online or badly spelt Guardian editorials aren't really comparable to national newspapers attacking anything and anyone who might even consider 'slowing' down Brexit...

I'm not saying they are. But do you agree or disagree that if those on the side of Remain continue to fail to present anything resembling a solid argument for actually remaining should there be another referendum (and instead continue the rhetoric that the other side are basically just old stupid racists) then the result is unlikely to change?

For the record, I voted Remain. I can deal with a few Leavers thinking I'm a pansy pro-Euro millennial with no understanding of politics, but ultimately Leave won last time so if there is another referendum, I'd prefer that the Remain argument is a bit stronger than "the other side don't like brown people".

You don't win by making the other side feel stupid in other words, you win by presenting a convincing argument for Remaining that makes clear the benefits for doing so. You also make damn sure that younger voters aren't as complacent as they were last time and actually go out to the polling stations.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Oh joy.

The requirement for a Brexit disaster/continuity plan has landed on my desk today.

Haven't gotten very far with it beyond suggesting we'll fund stocking up on all materials by sacking people who have openly disclosed they're leave voters.

 

[baldgye]

I'm not saying they are. But do you agree or disagree that if those on the side of Remain continue to fail to present anything resembling a solid argument for actually remaining should there be another referendum (and instead continue the rhetoric that the other side are basically just old stupid racists) then the result is unlikely to change?

For the record, I voted Remain. I can deal with a few Leavers thinking I'm a pansy pro-Euro millennial with no understanding of politics, but ultimately Leave won last time so if there is another referendum, I'd prefer that the Remain argument is a bit stronger than "the other side don't like brown people".

You don't win by making the other side feel stupid in other words, you win by presenting a convincing argument for Remaining that makes clear the benefits for doing so. You also make damn sure that younger voters aren't as complacent as they were last time and actually go out to the polling stations.

Sorry, but your talking bollocks.

As per the official Remain site;
https://www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts#z5kmcRUefKOjgjbt.97

Remain campaigned on (poorly) the fact that this countries economy isn’t strong enough to sustain itself as it is at the moment (or was prior to the vote), without the EU.

More than half of all our trade is through the EU and every single trade deal we have (and can have) was done through the EU, over 700 of them.
When/if we leave, we’ll have literally zero. We can’t even negotiate deals with other countries until we do actually leave and even then, we can’t set up deals with individual EU nations.

This was tossed aside as part of ‘project fear’ (pushed by the newspapers no one reads) and rubbished because ‘you can’t predict the economy, look at the 2008 financial crisis!’



To be clear, no one is clean in this.
Remain had a horrible campaign and remainers (like me) kind of assumed we wouldn't commit suicide and under valued the decades of ant-EU sentiment that the papers had helped build.
Leave pushed a campaign of actual lies, lies they willingly pushed and have admitted to. Engaged in xenophobic propaganda and broke election law.

All the while everyone is worse off. The political gamble messed up politicians ideas and plans, people have lost jobs, businesses have lost money and opportunity's and the country has been hurt diplomatically and financially (and will continue to be so for a long time to come).

 

[Dotini]

To be clear, no one is clean in this.
Remain had a horrible campaign and remainers (like me) kind of assumed we wouldn't commit suicide and under valued the decades of ant-EU sentiment that the papers had helped build.
Leave pushed a campaign of actual lies, lies they willingly pushed and have admitted to. Engaged in xenophobic propaganda and broke election law.

All the while everyone is worse off. The political gamble messed up politicians ideas and plans, people have lost jobs, businesses have lost money and opportunity's and the country has been hurt diplomatically and financially (and will continue to be so for a long time to come).

Together, the people making up Remain and Leave are the people of the UK. Is it fair to say that the people of the UK are hopelessly confused, divided, messed-up and out of control of their future? How does that make you feel? What possible scrap of hope is there for a positive future in this? How does the society of the UK go about recovering from this? Or does it?

 

[homeforsummer]

Sorry, but your talking bollocks.

*you're

And which parts, specifically, of what I said were bollocks?

For the record I'm:

• Not disagreeing that Remain campaigned horribly.
• Not disagreeing that Leave lied. That bit is fairly obvious.
• Not disagreeing that everyone is worse off. That too is fairly obvious.

What I am saying is that:

• Younger people should probably turn up to vote in greater numbers if there's to be another referendum, because they're more likely to vote Remain than older voters.
• Politicians and news outlets should probably have spent more time publicising the figures you linked to above rather than publishing endless stories, op-eds and vox-pops about what a dick Farage is and giving him the oxygen of publicity.

Again:

• I voted Remain. I spend large portions of my working life in Europe and talking to people from companies whose business depends on EU trade. I really don't want the UK to leave the EU. But also...
• ...I'm not dumb enough to spend my life moaning on social media that Leavers are all stupid and racist (you can't possibly have missed that kind of rhetoric), because that doesn't get anyone anywhere. It doesn't promote the benefits of Remaining, and it sure as hell doesn't make the Remain option look more appealing if there's to be another referendum.

 

[baldgye]

Together, the people making up Remain and Leave are the people of the UK. Is it fair to say that the people of the UK are hopelessly confused, divided, messed-up and out of control of their future? How does that make you feel? What possible scrap of hope is there for a positive future in this? How does the society of the UK go about recovering from this? Or does it?

I can't speak for everyone, but from who I've spoken too this whole process hasn't helped peoples understanding.
We are, basically out of control of our future. While that's kinda always true, our politicians have failed (understandably) to come up with a deal or a plan that the EU will accept. So now we have to hope that the EU either gives in, allows us to call it off, or extend the negotiation process.

The positive future is there, but it's a long road to recovery.
Society of the UK I'm not sure has changed? But as with everything, education is key and education in the UK is appalling, especially in state-schools, which instead of being used as a backstop for people who can't afford private education, is being used as the default.

 

[baldgye]

*you're

And which parts, specifically, of what I said were bollocks?

Probably these bits;

Remain continue to fail to present anything resembling a solid argument for actually remaining

I'd prefer that the Remain argument is a bit stronger than "the other side don't like brown people"

...I'm not dumb enough to spend my life moaning on social media that Leavers are all dumb and racist

While I agree, you have to really look at what Leave where purporting;

**** it I've tried to sauce these from many places;
First poster is Turkey is joining the EU and all 70m people are moving to the UK.
Second is the famous 'Breaking point' poster that Farage launched.
(these images load for me only half the time?)

Remain did a **** job, but they had reasonable and fair points regarding jobs and the economy. Points that already are coming true...

 

[homeforsummer]

Probably these bits

Thanks. That was just as easy without insulting me, wasn't it?

That said, I'm not sure it's hugely wide of the mark even so, given you even said yourself that Remain's campaign was poor. They certainly have a fancy and compelling website, but remarkably little of that information seemed to hit TV screens or newspapers while I was following it - or if it did, it ended up being drowned out by some daft thing someone from Leave had done on a given day.

While I agree, you have to really look at what Leave where purporting;

Oh, absolutely. I don't doubt that at least some of the Leave campaign was relying heavily on the bubbling racism of a swathe of the population (along with misinformation on the side of buses), just as Trump's presidential campaign was. I just wish the considerable effort expended squawking about it on the Remain side had been put to better use.

And yep, the images aren't showing on the site for me but did appear when I quoted your post. General internet weirdness.

Remain did a **** job, but they had reasonable and fair points regarding jobs and the economy. Points that already are coming true...

Agreed - though again, it's unfortunate those points were drowned out beforehand. If people genuinely did know before what they know now (i.e. had Remain's campaign been stronger) then I suspect the bus slogans and gammon-faced politicians probably wouldn't have had as much of an impact.

 

[baldgye]

Thanks. That was just as easy without insulting me, wasn't it?

That said, I'm not sure it's hugely wide of the mark even so, given you even said yourself that Remain's campaign was poor. They certainly have a fancy and compelling website, but remarkably little of that information seemed to hit TV screens or newspapers while I was following it - or if it did, it ended up being drowned out by some daft thing someone from Leave had done on a given day.

Oh, absolutely. I don't doubt that at least some of the Leave campaign was relying heavily on the bubbling racism of a swathe of the population (along with misinformation on the side of buses), just as Trump's presidential campaign was. I just wish the considerable effort expended squawking about it on the Remain side had been put to better use.

And yep, the images aren't showing on the site for me but did appear when I quoted your post. General internet weirdness.

Agreed - though again, it's unfortunate those points were drowned out beforehand. If people genuinely did know before what they know now (i.e. had Remain's campaign been stronger) then I suspect the bus slogans and gammon-faced politicians probably wouldn't have had as much of an impact.

I mean, I didn’t insult you I just dismissed your argument.
Leave set the precedent for the president. You could see it, Trumps assention was almost a mirror of Brexit.

All the whole campaign was (as an outsider), was both sides arguing at each other. The difference was Leave was able to sneak out a few lies about the NHS and immigration and the press ran with it.... And it worked ‘too’ perfectly.

 

[Touring Mars]

There is no doubt Brexit is going to hurt - and it is not immediately apparent what the long term benefits will be (if any). But, there are similar and impossible-to-answer questions regarding the future of the EU - will it even survive?... will it become a superstate?... what happens when another member state wants to leave, or when a member state must be expelled?

I personally don't believe that a simple majority in a referendum is enough to justify triggering Article 50 - I also think that Brexit has been well and truly botched - mostly by the UK's total lack of preparation, but also purposefully by the EU. But the fact is that Article 50 has been triggered, and now we're in uncharted territory where there are no simple answers any more. A Leave vote was always going to be much, much more uncertain - almost by definition it was the 'we want change!' vote, and as such there was an expectation that things could/would get rough.

But, without wishing to sound too pessimistic, and however much I wish things were different (I did vote Remain after all...), I am becoming more and more convinced that the days of the EU - in its present form anyway - are numbered. Something big has to give, and it will either be the concept of national sovereignty itself, or the entire concept of the EU... these two concepts are fundamentally at odds with each other and I don't believe that there is enough popular support in any EU country for the EU superstate project to proceed much further - well, not with the consent of the people anyway.

Brexit is probably going to be a very high price to pay, but I also think that it was/is inevitable as long as the EU continues down its current path.


-

There is a telling comment in the Guardian just now...

Jeremy Corbyn has used his party conference speech to tell Theresa May that, if she comes back with from Brussels with a Brexit deal on Labour’s terms, he would support it. This has been interpreted as an olive branch to the PM, which could heighten the chance of parliament passing a deal this autumn, although it would involve May accepting a compromise that is unacceptable to part of her party and that she has ruled out (staying in a customs union with the EU.) Corbyn’s offer does, though, help to counter claims that Labour is opposed to Brexit. The passage came in an hour-long speech which also saw Corbyn restate his demand for a general election and (Corbyn) set out, in more detail than usual, the policies he would introduce to reverse austerity and revive public services.

I believe the part in red is the true explanation for why Corbyn supports Brexit - because, under current EU law, his policies and his budget would be trashed/impossible.

 

[Touring Mars]

Ireland has announced that it supports Theresa May's plan to keep the whole of the UK in a Customs Union which would solve the Irish backstop issue, at least for the time being.

https://www.ft.com/content/a4770b92-c721-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9 (paywall)

Unfortunately, this is still anathema to the EU, and it would in effect mean a Norway-style deal which no-one wants.

-

Meanwhile, however, Donald Tusk has re-iterated that the 'Canada +++' deal being proposed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, David Davis and others is on the table - the only sticking point is the Irish backstop. Personally, I think that Theresa May needs to change tack fast, and get behind this... find some kind of wording that basically convinces Jeremy Corbyn that this is the best deal to maintain frictionless trade and it has a shot of being accepted by both the UK government and, more importantly, the EU.

Theresa May is bitterly opposed to it, but I really don't understand why.