Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
- Thread starter Touring Mars
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- 17,316
- United Kingdom
Abandon ship would would have been a good NOTA vote for the poll. I voted remain, and I've got no idea what's best at this point so I went second referendum.. I've already had a personal, financial and commercial kicking in the balls so at this point I think a good personal Brexit strategy would be a good idea.
boiltheocean
Premium
- 7,756
- Samoa
Maybe should've included an option for our foreign friends - "I just want to see the poll results".
boiltheocean
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Dotini
(Banned)
- 15,742
- Seattle
- CR80_Shifty
I'm impressed how calmly and politely everybody in the UK is taking the mess and uncertainty over Brexit and its outcome. Over in France there is fire, riot, and talk of rebellion - simply over a minor rise in fuel taxes. At about 20% popularity, Macron seems more firmly in command than May. Some change is in wind, no doubt.
- 87,570
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- GTP_Famine
boiltheocean
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A second referendum is a popular choice but I see it causing is further rifts amongst the people during a very divisive time in global politics. The argument for a second referendum seems to be that the facts of leaving were not available during the first referendum, you're effectively saying people were too stupid to vote remain the first time and it needs to be run again until the people get it right.
- 17,316
- United Kingdom
Not really, it's effectively saying no-one really understood the complexity of what they were voting for first time around. FWIW, of the leave voters I know, most would still vote to leave because their decision was based on a vague ideal, and a dislike of foreigners... not the cold hard facts of the thing. Even my best mate said he didn't care what it cost the country so long as we got our sovereignty back. A similar thing may well be true of remainers since there really weren't that many cold hard facts floating around at the time... in fact the more I think about, I can't think of anyone that I know that has changed their mind on the situation.
As for there being a deep divide, I don't really care anymore. Being told to shut up because I lost, and then being blamed for the situation I voted against (being enacted by a government I did not vote for) being a **** show, and having already paid a financial and emotional price since the day of the vote, has meant I no longer care if other people get offended or upset, I don't even care what it might mean for ARE DIMOCRACSY!!!11!! because as far as I'm concerned, that's ****ed up anyway.
- 29,369
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
A second referendum would be utterly pointless.
I agree with @Famine that it would need to be a three-way question, but there is a major problem with this idea - there is currently no legal means by which one of the options, Remain, can be achieved. This is what I've been saying for some time - and I don't believe that many people who are calling for a second referendum really understand this yet.
Also, there's the obvious problem of a referendum with more than two options - it is very likely that it will not deliver a clear mandate for any option. Put these two things together and you get the prospect of having a public vote whose result is almost impossible to interpret, and, worse still, may not even be possible to deliver.
Voting to reverse course on Brexit at this stage would be a disaster of monumental proportions for the UK - we've already been comprehensively stuffed by the EU for daring to say that we're leaving, but the EU are doubtless cockahoop at the fact that they stand to gain significantly from our exit (as per the current agreement). The assumption on behalf of those who are pushing for another shot at staying in the EU is that all 27 member states of the EU will agree to simply forget the whole thing ever happened and allow the UK to revert to a pre-referendum state. While I accept that it is possible, it should also be remembered that it is by no means certain.
I agree with @Famine that it would need to be a three-way question, but there is a major problem with this idea - there is currently no legal means by which one of the options, Remain, can be achieved. This is what I've been saying for some time - and I don't believe that many people who are calling for a second referendum really understand this yet.
Also, there's the obvious problem of a referendum with more than two options - it is very likely that it will not deliver a clear mandate for any option. Put these two things together and you get the prospect of having a public vote whose result is almost impossible to interpret, and, worse still, may not even be possible to deliver.
Voting to reverse course on Brexit at this stage would be a disaster of monumental proportions for the UK - we've already been comprehensively stuffed by the EU for daring to say that we're leaving, but the EU are doubtless cockahoop at the fact that they stand to gain significantly from our exit (as per the current agreement). The assumption on behalf of those who are pushing for another shot at staying in the EU is that all 27 member states of the EU will agree to simply forget the whole thing ever happened and allow the UK to revert to a pre-referendum state. While I accept that it is possible, it should also be remembered that it is by no means certain.
- 13,907
- Adelaide
- Neomone
Which is probably accurate. And why such things tend not to be put to a popular vote; because a sensible assessment of what is in the country's best interests requires a level of knowledge of national and international structure and relations that most laypeople simply don't possess, nor are they equipped to understand and process it if the information were presented to them. Sometimes you just have to accept that elected officials and selected professionals know what they're doing and will act appropriately in the best interests of the populace. If they don't, maybe then it's time for riots and revolution.
You don't give five year olds a vote about what to have for dinner, because you'll be eating ice cream and pancakes until they all die of malnutrition and scurvy. I regret the necessity of comparing British adults to children for the sake of an analogy, but it seems pretty apt. It turns out that what feels good to many is not what's best for the UK, and so maybe giving them a choice at all was kind of a bad idea when the correct choice was obvious to those in power.
It’s the only way to save this country from ruin
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
I'm not sure I can agree with that.
Under the Lisbon Treaty (according to a lawyer from the Euro Parliament who was speaking on R4 last week) the declaration of notice to leave can simply be withdrawn. This would require a majoratitive agreement from the remaining countries. That is why (he says) there is no stated cancellation mechanism attached to Article 50 - it isn't required.
One might say we already have the latter. All those who voted 'leave' seemed to have wanted different things, equally true of those who voted 'remain'. There isn't a clear mandate for what exactly 'leave' means in terms of movement, trade, legal sovereignty and so on. Two countries voted to Remain and two voted to Leave. One of the 'Remain' countries followed that up with a parliamentary vote confirming the will of the people. The second didn't have a parliament, of course.
If we intend to trade into the EU then we have to observe sales regulations in the EU. If we want to appeal trade decisions then we have to do so in the EU courts. If we want visa-free travel or habitation rights then it has to go both ways. I'm not sure why we'd expect an easy ride from the EU when we've been a thorn in the side for so many years and I realise that things will never work out as well as they would have done if we'd left well alone... but any shot seems better than leaving, in my opinion.
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
The Swiss have practiced a form of direct democracy for 100+ years and so far they seem to be doing quite well and haven't voted for cake and ice cream quite yet. They rejected EU membership in favour of autonomy and national identity and have refused such things as universal basic income and 6 weeks of holidays for every worker. I'm sure if I went through the list I'd find some silly things they voted for but the results speak for themselves.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
Not quite. They were an early EEC member, early adopter of free trade and free movement, part of Shengen and only really differ from the EU in security policy for very obvious reasons. Various referendums have reinforced the importance of those links with few people seeing any point in extending them to full EU membership. You can also spend Euros in most places there with very little problem, certainly far less problem than in some EU member countries.
You'll note that "autonomy" doesn't exclude having to meet EU law when trading with the EU of course. Goods that are to be sold in the EU have to be legal for sale there... guess who sets those laws?
- 28,470
- Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Johnnypenso
I think you missed the point I was making which was that having citizens voting directly on the issues of the day, nationally and locally, hasn't lead to bread and circuses in Switzerland.Not quite. They were an early EEC member, early adopter of free trade and free movement, part of Shengen and only really differ from the EU in security policy for very obvious reasons. Various referendums have reinforced the importance of those links with few people seeing any point in extending them to full EU membership. You can also spend Euros in most places there with very little problem, certainly far less problem than in some EU member countries.
You'll note that "autonomy" doesn't exclude having to meet EU law when trading with the EU of course. Goods that are to be sold in the EU have to be legal for sale there... guess who sets those laws?
- 29,369
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
I'm very doubtful that this is the case, otherwise there wouldn't currently be a case before the ECJ to address this very point. But even if it is possible, there remains the question of how it could be done - the only way to do it before the UK leaves the EU would be by an act of Parliament, and it is debatable whether this could be pushed through in time - and then there's the small problem of the agreement from the EU27 to address as well.
Rescinding Article 50 would put the UK in an extremely vulnerable position - it would put our future in the EU entirely in the hands of the EU and the ECJ, and that means that all and every demand that EU member states may have would suddenly be on the table, not for negotiation, but for us to agree to in return for a positive vote to allow us to stay in - or even just to extend Article 50 in order to avoid crashing out.
There is a fundamental difference in what people believe referendums are for - they are only useful in deciding what to do when there is a simple binary choice, but they are not a means for deciding how to do things. The first referendum question was clear - do you wish to stay in the EU, yes or no? But, the complex question of what shape our future relationship with the EU ought to be is not a question that is suitable for a referendum.TenEightyOne
A second referendum would only really work if it were a straightforward 'yes' or 'no' decision as to whether we accept the deal agreed between the UK and the EU or not, with the consequence of a No vote meaning that we leave with no deal in March. There will, of course, be a vote on this in Parliament, but those hoping that a rejection of May's deal will open up a possible pathway to remaining in the EU might be in for a nasty shock.
So not really any different to the last year or so then?
- 29,951
- Bratvegas
- GTP_Liquid
As a UK citizen living in an EU country I am thunderously cross at the end of freedom of movement and the idea of a No Deal Brexit.
Border control into and out of Schengen is reasonable if you are an EU citizen, frustrating sometimes but you really take it for granted how simple it is. Now, I am under the impression that I'm no longer able to join the "EU/EEA" line and I'll have to join the "All Passports" and wait so much longer behind Russians, Americans and Koreans having various visas checked. I might even need a visa myself to go to Wales and back to Slovakia.
Yeah, it's a trivial matter and a personal gripe but Brexit doesn't just affect UK citizens in the UK. We are all over the EU wondering how much more difficult the bureacracy is going to be; as well as airports it's now going to take an ice age any time I have to fill out any Slovak paperwork too. The Foreign Police are extremely hostile to EU citizens, never mind non-EU ones...
Bratislava is the only capital in the world that borders two countries; Austria and Hungary. I cross them freely on my bike. If I was to get into some trouble out cycling, is Slovakia going to treat me differently to Austria or Hungary? Would Austrian police hypothetically enjoy processing a non-EU citizen who isn't registered in Austria?
I have friends at the British embassy Slovakia and they haven't a :censored:ing clue. There's so little relevant information out there for folks like me.
Border control into and out of Schengen is reasonable if you are an EU citizen, frustrating sometimes but you really take it for granted how simple it is. Now, I am under the impression that I'm no longer able to join the "EU/EEA" line and I'll have to join the "All Passports" and wait so much longer behind Russians, Americans and Koreans having various visas checked. I might even need a visa myself to go to Wales and back to Slovakia.
Yeah, it's a trivial matter and a personal gripe but Brexit doesn't just affect UK citizens in the UK. We are all over the EU wondering how much more difficult the bureacracy is going to be; as well as airports it's now going to take an ice age any time I have to fill out any Slovak paperwork too. The Foreign Police are extremely hostile to EU citizens, never mind non-EU ones...
Bratislava is the only capital in the world that borders two countries; Austria and Hungary. I cross them freely on my bike. If I was to get into some trouble out cycling, is Slovakia going to treat me differently to Austria or Hungary? Would Austrian police hypothetically enjoy processing a non-EU citizen who isn't registered in Austria?
I have friends at the British embassy Slovakia and they haven't a :censored:ing clue. There's so little relevant information out there for folks like me.
- 29,369
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
I wouldn't be too down-hearted just yet, @Liquid... there is, perhaps unbelievably, still a good chance that the UK will end up taking the Norway route - which would retain free movement. The Norway model is understandably deeply unpopular among Leavers and Remainers alike - for Leavers it would be the final nail in the coffin for their 'Hard Brexit' dreams, and for Remainers it's a needless relegation from full EU status - but, crucially, it does have a couple of things going for it. Firstly, it is politically possible - it is an off-the-shelf solution that the EU are automatically going to accept, but it also delivers (albeit pathetically weakly) on the promise that the UK officially leaves the EU. Secondly, it would pass muster with Labour's 'six tests', even if Corbyn is opposed to it. Of course, a Brexit that fails to deliver on ending Free Movement would cause outrage for a large proportion of voters, but the flipside to that is that there is likely to be an even larger swathe of people (and, perhaps more importantly, a majority of MPs) who would prefer a Norway-type deal to no deal at all.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
This is the problem I was getting at - several of the main Leave platforms (as I gather them to be from press and social media) seem undeliverable. Businesses have a natural will to continue to trade with EU countries, that can't be done on entirely British terms.
Goodness knows what the answer is.
