Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Touring Mars]

@TenEightyOne The EU principle of ‘Freedom of Movement’ is not the same thing as a common travel area.

Being able to enter a country doesn’t give you the legal right to live and work there. The UK and Ireland already enforce their own external borders with passport checks, so passport checks on the Irish border doesn’t seem to achieve much that isn’t already covered by those.

The question is what effect having a de facto common travel area (in Ireland in particular would have), as opposed to having a hard border with customs and passports being required. A common travel area in Ireland (and even Ireland and the entire UK) would (in my simple understanding of it anyway) make a lot of sense.

 

[TenEightyOne]

@TenEightyOne The EU principle of ‘Freedom of Movement’ is not the same thing as a common travel area.

It's not known if the CTA will continue. Given the Leave platform it seems unlikely that the visa trial will continue, and it certainly won't be extended to cover EU visas. Non-Irish EU nationals may need a visa to cross the border into the Kingdom in the same way that we may to travel into the EU (length of stay to be confirmed, the Gov UK page is awaiting Brexit). You'll still need to demonstrate that you have access to cash and a return ticket in the same way as now, you'll just use the non-EU/Swiss lane for passport control. I don't see how that will fail to apply to the NI border or the E/S/W border. If the first, that's a hard border. If the second, that's a DUP deal-breaker.

Customs checks still need to be undertaken between Ireland and NI. I'm not clear on how you think they'll happen without customs checks?

 

[Hun200kmh]

That seems unlikely, because the EU cannot do it without the UK's consent.

Yes but I guess that's not the point (if this piece has any shred of basis) BJ is playing the blame game and if by Oct 30 there is no deal the UK will leave the EU the hard way and Boris will blame the remainers and the EU for it. Good for him considering the next GE and that he will be able to blame others for any hardship that follows Brexit.

However, if the EU, closer to the Brexit date, says "look we didn't reach any kind of compromise so far but we're willing to work on it for a few more months" ... then BJ will have a problem to solve. Either he agrees with another extension (and that will make him a traitor for the ever growing demographic of blood-thirsty and radicalized brexiteers, in your country where the sensible and rational man in the middle (aka @Touring Mars ) is fast dissapearing) or he doesn't (as you pointed out, he has to agree for the extension to happen). If he doesn't , there's no way he will still be able to blame No Deal Brexit on the EU and the UK remainers ...

 

[eran0004]

Agreement between the EU and the UK to move to Article 24 of the WTO rules would guarantee an open border. Sure, it would not solve all problems, but it would solve by far the most pressing one of keeping the border open.

So instead of staying in the customs union, the suggestion is to form a customs union?

Sounds reasonable. At least it doesn’t contain the word “backstop”.

The major difference is that the current WA/backstop leaves the UK exposed to the possibility of being legally trapped inside the Customs Union permanently, whereas 'alternative arrangements' such as Article 24 and a new Political Declaration with legally binding commitments on a future trade deal, would achieve the same effects as the backstop but without that legal trap.

The problem is that if other WTO members find it unlikely that the arrangement will lead to a customs union within the time limit, they can block the arrangement. Given that the UK would just have left a customs union with the EU I assume they will raise some concerns about it.

It would be better to add to the backstop that in the event that it’s triggered it will be up for renewal every ten years if both parties agree to it. But also means that the “no hard border” guarantee is only valid for ten years at a time.

Except you have that the wrong way round - the border is open already, the question is how to close it when no-one is willing or able to do it.

I’m sure both Ireland and the UK are more than able of organising customs checks and immigration control and I’m sure authorities in both countries are already preparing for it.

But are they willing to? Well, what is the alternative? They can’t have free trade between the countries, because that means that by WTO rules they would have to allow free trade with any WTO member and that’s not going to happen. They could turn a blind eye to the border but that means making every importer/exporter in the area a smuggler and how do you regulate the sale of smuggled goods? More importantly, why bother leaving the customs union if anyone can just bring anything into the country through the Irish border?

I’m sure they could stick their heads in the sand and ignore the problem while chaos gradually unfolds, but sooner or later they will need to deal with it.

 

[Touring Mars]

The idea is that the EU and the UK can strike a trade deal that minimizes the need for customs checks - and, as a bare minimum, removes the need for customs checks at the Irish border. Note that this is not the same as saying there will be no customs checks - but the goal for all sides is not to achieve zero customs checks, but to avoid a need for a hard border in Ireland.

Unfortunately, it is proving very difficult to ascertain what the status of the border will have to be because the EU will not allow negotiations on trade to start until after Article 50 expires and the UK has already left.

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As for GATT24, it doesn’t mean that Ireland/EU and the UK cannot have free trade, either now or later. GATT24 contains the provision for maintaining the status quo while a trade deal is completed. The UK and the EU already have zero tariff trade, so keeping that on a temporary basis doesn’t require a new agreement, just an extension of the one that is already in place (which, after all, is the same as what the UK and the EU have already agreed to in principle under the ‘transition period’). As for a future trade agreement, other WTO members cannot object to that because it would be a trade deal - the only thing the UK cannot do is unilaterally remove tariffs from EU goods (without a deal) while keeping tariffs on goods from non-EU countries.

So.. the UK and the EU could agree to maintain a ‘standstill’ (with a time limit of up to 10 years) while trade negotiations begin. Once a trade deal is done, everything goes back to ‘normal’. In that period, new arrangements in Ireland can be put in the place to avoid the need to conduct customs checks at the border... that could mean customs checks centres near the border, but it could also be almost entirely done without physical checks (e.g. digital checks), except for sensitive or animal goods, which are already checked at external borders anyway (yes, there are already customs checks between NI and the UK, a point the DUP seem happy to ignore).

The sticking point is the insistence of the EU that the UK legally commits to the backstop first. If they dropped this, and replaced it with GATT 24 (which is, in reality, practically the same as the backstop), then a deal is still possible.

 

[Touring Mars]

For anyone who wonders how the Leave campaign won, watch this:



What we are seeing (IMO) is the result of 21st Century technology and 'science' being used to control and manipulate mass opinion and a popular vote in ways that have rarely, if ever, been used to such effect in an open democracy, with the possible exception of the Trump 2016 campaign.

Dominic Cummings is, at least, open and honest about what they did and why... but it does leave a slightly unpleasant taste in the mouth.

 

[polysmut]

For anyone who wonders how the Leave campaign won, watch this:



What we are seeing (IMO) is the result of 21st Century technology and 'science' being used to control and manipulate mass opinion and a popular vote in ways that have rarely, if ever, been used to such effect in an open democracy, with the possible exception of the Trump 2016 campaign.

Dominic Cummings is, at least, open and honest about what they did and why... but it does leave a slightly unpleasant taste in the mouth.

The main problem with Dominic Cummings is the electorate.

Edit: For information, I haven't watched the video.

 

[Touring Mars]

I haven't watched the video.

It is definitely worth watching

It is a stark reminder of how careful we ought to be with our own information - not just how we give it away, but how we receive it too.

Unfortunately, there are significant numbers of people out there who probably have no idea how their decision on Brexit was influenced or how/why they were deliberately targeted for that influence, but Cummings makes it perfectly clear who was targeted, why they were targeted and how... thought clearly there is more to the latter part than meets the eye/ear. Facebook has a lot to answer for.

-

Today is a huge day in UK politics, and is likely to see the House of Commons move to take control of Parliamentary business in order to force the Government to outlaw leaving the EU without a deal. That will leave the Government in a tough spot, and Johnson will almost certainly (attempt to) call a General Election - but if Tory rebels and Labour block that, then it could be game over for Johnson's premiership.

 

[Barra333]

then it could be game over for Johnson's premiership.

It speaks volumes of the situation that this can be said of a guy who has been leader for 5 minutes. Normally a change at the top gives the newbie a bit of breathing space.

 

[Touring Mars]

The strategy of the opponents of No Deal is to stop Brexit first, and to avoid the possibility that a General Election could pave the way for a No Deal exit by default.

But... if Johnson is forced to extend Article 50 (and thus avoid a No Deal Brexit in October), then a General Election will take place and what are the chances of Johnson winning big time? If that happens, then Johnson has the chance to stack the deck in his favour and do what he is currently unable to do - secure a No Deal Brexit through a Parliamentary majority.

That said, I don't see how Johnson can win without the support of the Brexit party now - is there even a chance of Johnson could join the Brexit party?! I reckon Johnson is too much embedded in the 'establishment' to possibly go down that route, but perhaps it is more likely that Johnson will purge his own party of those who oppose(d) him today and replace them with candidates that are much more aligned to his own views.

 

[Liquid]

but perhaps it is more likely that Johnson will purge his own party of those who oppose(d) him today and replace them with candidates that are much more aligned to his own views.

Apparently Conservative MPs are being threatened with having the whip taken away from them and deselection at the next GE if they don't support the government's plans.

There are also stories of civil servants being sacked for raising legal concerns about what they are supposed to be doing and what is being planned.

 

[Famine]

All the rumblings about the divisions in the Conservatives over this are almost moot. Corbyn, bless his obliviousness, wants a General Election

 

[Dotini]

It is definitely worth watching

Yes, and prior to the science and technology, for the first 6 minutes he talks about the 3 big forces which loomed over everything: emmigration, the 2008 financial crisis and the Euro.

Question: Is a snap election called by the PM any different to a general election called by the MP's?

 

[Hun200kmh]

The way I see this, to block no-deal now through an extension of the B-Day and to call a GE to happen well before the next B-Day is the democratic way to go. Whatever result comes from that GE will be understood as the people's verdict on the extreme proposal of No-Deal Brexit.

 

[TenEightyOne]

All the rumblings about the divisions in the Conservatives over this are almost moot. Corbyn, bless his obliviousness, wants a General Election

It seems that he now might not, but Johnson has two attempts to get one. The first is by getting a 2/3 majority for one, I think that won't happen. The second is to call a vote of no confidence in the government. That would see Conservatives voting No Confidence to force a GE and the opposition voting Confidence to stop one. The world's gone mad.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Just head Prof Sir John Curtice on the wireless, he agrees with @Famine about the Farage/Johnson future*. Farage may use a Conservative failure to boost the Brexit Party in a GE, Johnson might do well to have him in the fold.

*He didn't mention @Famine by name, but I guess it's only a matter of time

 

[MatskiMonk]

Protesting outside parliament...

... the BBC has an interesting picture;

I mean... what the hell is Mika Hakkinen's beef with parliament!!

 

[Touring Mars]

Question: Is a snap election called by the PM any different to a general election called by the MP's?

MPs cannot call a General Election, but can pass a vote of no confidence in the Government and trigger a GE.

The PM cannot call a GE either, but can merely call for a vote for a GE in which Parliament must pass it with 2/3rds of the vote. The PM can, however, call a General Election by introducing a Bill to that effect, but then it could have all sorts of amendments tagged onto it, so that is impractical.

What we are likely to see today is that Parliament will take control of the Order Paper (which means that they can introduce Bills against the wishes of Government), vote through a Bill to block No Deal, and forcing the PM to call for an extension to Article 50. If that is the case, the PM will call a GE, and hope that the opposition vote in favour of it. If they don't, however, there won't be a GE and No Deal will be blocked. But, PM Johnson has said he will deselect MPs who vote against him (in either vote) today, thus paving the way for new, Brexit-backing MPs to stand for election in October. If they get voted in, then any legislation brought in today could be overturned in October... but that is a long way away yet!

 

[PzR Slim]

Government still not prepared to let the general public know the truth.

https://www.ft.com/content/c95b92ea-cd90-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

 

[Touring Mars]

A Tory MP, Phillip Lee, has defected to the Liberal Democrats, thus leaving the Johnson Government without a majority (and that includes the DUP MPs).

 

[MatskiMonk]

... oh, wonderful. There is no outcome from this ****show, that doesn't leave us, the audience, also swimming in ****. I'm really beginning to feel compelled to abandon ship.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I can't remember ever watching a more unpleasant set of exchanges between Tory MPs in the House. When even Kenneth Clarke is taking to his feet to school young Mogg on a few things you know the party is falling apart.

Corbyn's speech was also painful to watch, he's somewhat lacking in pace and delivery and different pages of the speech appeared to have been created by different people who didn't know what anybody else had written.

So far the prize for Top Politicking has to go to Mogg, 1922 and the eager puppet they've placed in the hot seat. I don't see many ways (or any ways) around their agenda.

 

[Touring Mars]

Ken Clarke is not exactly renowed for barnstorming speeches, but his speech tonight is rather brilliant.

He also is a great example of the biggest problem Johnson faces - Johnson, compared to Clarke and several others has no authority. Threatening to kick Ken Clarke out of the Conservative Party, especially when you've only been leader of the party for 6 weeks, is frankly insane... and it will not succeed. If Clarke stood against a hard-Brexit supporting Tory candidate as an independent, he would win by a country mile.

Clarke is proving that Johnson is a paper tiger and his 'nuclear option' - of sacking his most authoritative, experienced and respected members - is an empty threat.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Threatening to kick Ken Clarke out of the Conservative Party

And Nicholas Soames, grandson of Churchill (the PM, not the dog, although there's a passing likeness to both). This is Mogg and 1922 finally consolidating the power of the party that they've been after. I never thought I'd see the day where Kenneth Clarke would represent the reasonable left of the Tories. Astonishing.

If Clarke stood against a hard-Brexit supporting Tory candidate as an independent, he would win by a country mile.

I quite agree, and the same may well be true of other MPs, and again that includes Soames. I wonder if Johnson fears a GE as much as he should. Labour would do badly but I think the Tories would fail to make the gains that Johnson seemingly anticipates.

 

[MatskiMonk]

So far the prize for Top Politicking has to go to Mogg, 1922 and the eager puppet they've placed in the hot seat. I don't see many ways (or any ways) around their agenda.

He certainly is an effective, charismatic and knowledgeable politician. In respect of his superiority I shall use EXTRA accelerant on the effigy I burn of him on the bonfire come November the 5th.

 

[TenEightyOne]

He certainly is an effective, charismatic and knowledgeable politician. In respect of his superiority I shall use EXTRA accelerant on the effigy I burn of him on the bonfire come November the 5th.

The reclining version should be easier to build although you don't get the bonus of inserting the broomstick.

 

[PzR Slim]

The reclining version should be easier to build although you don't get the bonus of inserting the broomstick.

How anyone can think, 'Yep, I'm on his side.', is beyond me. I've never seen such contempt.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Kill 'em all...

.. but on a lighter note ...

 

[TenEightyOne]

The bloodletting is afoot. The Tory rebels are being called in alphabetical order (like what it is at Eton) and having the whip withdrawn. Ken Clarke is no longer a member of the Conservative Party. Nor is Philip Hammond. In all I believe there are 21 MPs to be called. Astonishing.

EDIT: It's hard to keep count of the body-bags being wheeled out of the Chief Whip's office but by my count this minority government is now -29?

Johnson has never won a vote, has lost his first vote (first PM since Pitt to do so), has lost his working majority in the House and 10%-ish of his voting strength, and has no mandate for a no-Deal Brexit as he clearly promised that it wasn't what Leave voters were voting for. This is insane.

 

[Lizard]

The bloodletting is afoot. The Tory rebels are being called in alphabetical order (like what it is at Eton) and having the whip withdrawn. Ken Clarke is no longer a member of the Conservative Party. Nor is Philip Hammond. In all I believe there are 21 MPs to be called. Astonishing.

EDIT: It's hard to keep count of the body-bags being wheeled out of the Chief Whip's office but by my count this minority government is now -29?

Johnson has never won a vote, has lost his first vote (first PM since Pitt to do so), has lost his working majority in the House and 10%-ish of his voting strength, and has no mandate for a no-Deal Brexit as he clearly promised that it wasn't what Leave voters were voting for. This is insane.

Jeez. He has just gone full Stalin, just with a little less blood.