Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Imari]

... oh, wonderful. There is no outcome from this ****show, that doesn't leave us, the audience, also swimming in ****. I'm really beginning to feel compelled to abandon ship.

Come to Australia. At least the weather is nice.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Come to Australia. At least the weather is nice.

I was thinking maybe somewhere where the wildlife was a little less... bitey.

 

[Lizard]

I was thinking maybe somewhere where the wildlife was a little less... bitey.

Honest opinion? Move to Germany.

 

[Dotini]

The bloodletting is afoot. The Tory rebels are being called in alphabetical order (like what it is at Eton) and having the whip withdrawn. Ken Clarke is no longer a member of the Conservative Party. Nor is Philip Hammond. In all I believe there are 21 MPs to be called. Astonishing.

EDIT: It's hard to keep count of the body-bags being wheeled out of the Chief Whip's office but by my count this minority government is now -29?

Johnson has never won a vote, has lost his first vote (first PM since Pitt to do so), has lost his working majority in the House and 10%-ish of his voting strength, and has no mandate for a no-Deal Brexit as he clearly promised that it wasn't what Leave voters were voting for. This is insane.

Some day you may come to regret not having a written constitution.

 

[baldgye]

Some day you may come to regret not having a written constitution.

Yeah, having things written down that are unchangeable sure works out well for you chaps....

 

[Sphinx]

So BJ has spent the last few years very carefully planning to become PM with his ERG buddies and then they fall at the first hurdle? Nah, there must be more to this. I smell a rat.

 

[baldgye]

So BJ has spent the last few years very carefully planning to become PM with his ERG buddies and then they fall at the first hurdle? Nah, there must be more to this. I smell a rat.

Chances are BoJo wins a GE with a majority...

 

[Touring Mars]

Chances are BoJo wins a GE with a majority...

I would, quite honestly, be surprised.

As with just about everything the ERG have planned thus far, the numbers just don't add up.

Of the 17.4 million people who voted for Brexit, only a proportion of them support a No Deal Brexit... the fact that there is, currently, no agreement on any alternative, shouldn't change the fact that most people, if give the choice, would vote against a No Deal Brexit.

Johnson can win a majority, but only if he delivers what always seemed unlikely, but now seems all but impossible - a new deal that does not include the Backstop... before the election.

Good luck with that.

The bloodletting is afoot. The Tory rebels are being called in alphabetical order (like what it is at Eton) and having the whip withdrawn. Ken Clarke is no longer a member of the Conservative Party. Nor is Philip Hammond. In all I believe there are 21 MPs to be called. Astonishing.

EDIT: It's hard to keep count of the body-bags being wheeled out of the Chief Whip's office but by my count this minority government is now -29?

Johnson has never won a vote, has lost his first vote (first PM since Pitt to do so), has lost his working majority in the House and 10%-ish of his voting strength, and has no mandate for a no-Deal Brexit as he clearly promised that it wasn't what Leave voters were voting for. This is insane.

I'm genuinely shocked that this has gone ahead.

While I understand (and even agree with to some extent) the logic of threatening No Deal in order to achieve a better deal, the simple fact remains that no matter what happens or will happen, Parliament has the final say. Deselecting MPs in this manner is only likely to backfire royally.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I would, quite honestly, be surprised.

As with just about everything the ERG have planned thus far, the numbers just don't add up.

Of the 17.4 million people who voted for Brexit, only a proportion of them support a No Deal Brexit... the fact that there is, currently, no agreement on any alternative, shouldn't change the fact that most people, if give the choice, would vote against a No Deal Brexit.

I was talking with a leave voter at the weekend, he seemed to think polls currently put the Conservatives in with the best chance. I've not seen those polls myself however YouGov currently would reflect this - although they indicate that BoJo would still need TBP to be able to get anything like a majority. The chances of the 16.1m people that were against Brexit actually voting Lib Dem would also appear small.

Is the ballot paper effectively;

Conservative = Hard Brexit
The Brexit Party = Hard Brexit
Labour Party = Soft Brexit
Lib Dems = No Brexit

?

 

[Tired Tyres]

Conservative = Hard Brexit/Deal
The Brexit Party = Hard Brexit
Labour Party = Soft Brexit/deal/Hard Brexit depending on day of the week or time of day.
Lib Dems = No Brexit

Fixed for you.

If the Conservatives get the Brexit party votes they will win. Liberal Democrat wins will cost Labour any chance at all.

 

[Hun200kmh]

So BJ has spent the last few years very carefully planning to become PM with his ERG buddies and then they fall at the first hurdle? Nah, there must be more to this. I smell a rat.

What happens if BJ simply refuses to comply with the legislation that is being voted today and does not request an extension of the Brexit deadline to the EU?

Can the EU grant that extension even if the UK government doesn't ask for it?

 

[Liquid]

If the Conservatives get the Brexit party votes they will win.

Agreed, unfortunately...

Tories and BP would coalition together even if it was still a minority government.

 

[baldgye]

I would, quite honestly, be surprised.

As with just about everything the ERG have planned thus far, the numbers just don't add up.

Of the 17.4 million people who voted for Brexit, only a proportion of them support a No Deal Brexit... the fact that there is, currently, no agreement on any alternative, shouldn't change the fact that most people, if give the choice, would vote against a No Deal Brexit.

Johnson can win a majority, but only if he delivers what always seemed unlikely, but now seems all but impossible - a new deal that does not include the Backstop... before the election.

Good luck with that.

If the Conservatives get the Brexit party votes they will win. Liberal Democrat wins will cost Labour any chance at all.

Pretty much what @Tired Tyres said, 'Remain' is split between two parties that can't realistically rule, where as Brexiter's now have a single rallying call.

 

[Touring Mars]

What happens if BJ simply refuses to comply with the legislation that is being voted today and does not request an extension of the Brexit deadline to the EU?

Can the EU grant that extension even if the UK government doesn't ask for it?

Good questions - and unfortunately it is not all that clear what the answers are.

Technically, the EU cannot grant an extension unless all member states (which includes the UK) agree. Hence the British PM can effectively veto it.

However, if Parliament has legislated on requesting an extension to Article 50, then the Prime Minister would be acting illegally by doing so. What happens then is anyone's guess.

I think it is unlikely to come to that though - Johnson has called for an election, but this is probably going to be delayed by opposition parties who will (temporarily) block it in order to ensure that the UK cannot leave the EU with No Deal on October 31st.

That means that when Parliament returns in mid-October, there will be time to hold a vote of No Confidence in the Government, which will almost certainly pass now... esp. as 21 MPs have just been kicked out the Conservative Party. That gives the opposition 14 days to form a Government, and hence if they can agree on who to lead (at this stage it is likely to be Jeremy Corbyn), then Corbyn, as Prime Minister, would be able to request an extension, which would almost certainly be granted.

Pretty much what @Tired Tyres said, 'Remain' is split between two parties that can't realistically rule, where as Brexiter's now have a single rallying call.

Under the circumstances, I could see a 'government of national unity' deal being struck between Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP to not oppose each other in seats where the 'Brexit alliance' could win. It is, perhaps, unlikely... but unusual circumstances require unusual solutions.

Note that the Brexit Party nor UKIP have ever won a seat in a General Election. The Tories have also just imploded. They are both pursuing an aim that is supported by around 1/3rd of the UK population, which may be enough to deliver a majority for a coalition, but they stand no chance unless they formally agree to work together... and that is, hopefully, quite unlikely.

 

[baldgye]

Under the circumstances, I could see a 'government of national unity' deal being struck between Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP to not oppose each other in seats where the 'Brexit alliance' could win. It is, perhaps, unlikely... but unusual circumstances require unusual solutions.

Note that the Brexit Party nor UKIP have ever won a seat in a General Election. The Tories have also just imploded. They are both pursuing an aim that is supported by around 1/3rd of the UK population, which may be enough to deliver a majority for a coalition, but they stand no chance unless they formally agree to work together... and that is, hopefully, quite unlikely.

Yeah maybe, though I would imagine 1/3 support for one party would be more than enough.

 

[Touring Mars]

Yeah maybe, though I would imagine 1/3 support for one party would be more than enough.

Probably not - Cameron got an overall majority with 36%, but May didn't with 42%...

Also, the Brexit Party and the Tories are two parties... well, for the time being anyway.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Some day you may come to regret not having a written constitution.

We do.

 

[Liquid]

We do.

True. The United Kingdom does have written constitutional laws, codifiers and precedents, they're just not contained in one single document that happens to be called "The Constitution".

And I'm not saying that having it spread across documents makes it easy to follow because... it doesn't.

 

[TenEightyOne]

True. The United Kingdom does have written constitutional laws, codifiers and precedents, they're just not contained in one single document that happens to be called "The Constitution"

Agreed, but that doesn't mean that we don't have a constitution, contrary to @Dotini's post.

And I'm not saying that having it spread across documents makes it easy to follow because... it doesn't.

Also agreed, but there are several good examples (including the one that @Dotini was surely thinking of) where attempts at a single-sheet codification can also lead to the scope for confusion, argument and multiple interpretations.

 

[MatskiMonk]

We do.

The principles of Parliamentary sovereignty, the rule of law, democracy, and internationalism guide the UK's modern political system to advance the social and economic development of all people.

 

[PzR Slim]

 

[Dotini]

The principles of Parliamentary sovereignty, the rule of law, democracy, and internationalism guide the UK's modern political system to advance the social and economic development of all people.

What is the context and sense of these words? Do they really mean anything to anybody?

 

[MatskiMonk]

What is the context and sense of these words? Do they really mean anything to anybody?

It's simply what the wiki article says... I'm guessing whoever the wikieditor that put that in hasn't been following the news for a while.

I assume that's their equivalent of 'Have I got news for you'?

 

[PzR Slim]

I assume that's their equivalent of 'Have I got news for you'?

Apparently not. Further down the comments someone explains it's the most watched programme in Russia on for 3-4 hours per day. Seems to be a current affairs programme.

 

[Danoff]

Regarding Russia's news show,

Doesn't say anything good about your country if you hope that those around you do badly. If you've positioned yourself well, their prosperity is your prosperity.

 

[PzR Slim]

Regarding Russia's news show,

Doesn't say anything good about your country if you hope that those around you do badly. If you've positioned yourself well, their prosperity is your prosperity.

Think you need to look into how Russia go about their business a little.

 

[Danoff]

Think you need to look into how Russia go about their business a little.

I understand why that sentiment exists within Russia. But, they should find it embarrassing.

 

[TexRex]

Kill 'em all...

.. but on a lighter note ...

That image has got to be used for an album cover.

 

[Liquid]

I understand why that sentiment exists within Russia. But, they should find it embarrassing.

Might is right, I guess.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The House has backed the first stage of the Brexit delay bill by 329 to 300. There is talk of more expulsions from the Conservative party.