Britain - The Official Thread

[TRGTspecialist]

It kind of puts the mockers on 'hard' Brexit and Scottish independence in one fell swoop - not a good night for Nationalists of any colour. It's an especially bad night for Leave voters though - this election has basically rectified what a lot of people have suspected - that the EU referendum was won on fake promises, and though I suspect that most Leave voters will still want the UK to leave the EU, the government are going to have to rethink their attitude towards Brexit. In some ways I admire Theresa May for essentially calling an election on the basis of 'well, do you really want a hard Brexit or not'? She certainly got her answer loud and clear.

I'm not 100% sure about this. As far as I'm aware there were three main Brexit promises that both Labour and the Tories shared:

- Brexit is happening, with no referendum on the exit deal
- Membership of the single market will end
- Freedom of movement will end.

That certainly isn't all that constituted a "hard Brexit", but they were key elements - and they've just been given a mandate by over 80% of voters, which is huge (it's also in line with recent opinion polls that have suggested only 20-25% of voters want Brexit to be stopped entirely). I agree there'll be a change in attitude - the idea that leaving with no deal is an option is probably dead - but I doubt the change necessary will be as large as some politicians are trying to spin it right now.

I think the whole Northern Ireland issue is something (sorry to our N.I. members) that the rest of the UK was happy to forget about/sweep under the carpet and is now probably going to be headline news again for years to come.

Don't worry, not only am I well used to it I don't really blame you either

The big problem with the DUP is they will put, to an absurd degree, their own party/interests before country. I'm not surprised the Tories are choosing to go ahead as a minority rather than make a formal pact/agreement - the idea that they could command any reliable loyalty from the DUP is pie in the sky. Their extreme social conservatism a red herring; their allegiance will happily lie with anyone who's prepared to give them what they want.

May can talk about "stability" all she wants, but even if she can keep all of her MPs in line (unlikely), having to rely on the DUP in your hour of need is a really bad position to be in. Her only hope is that the DUP are put off dissenting because they don't want to undo the success they've had with another election. Or risk giving Corbyn any authority - you may be surprised to hear that unionists aren't big fans of the man.........

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Here is how the polls performed compared to past elections.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DB3uDkKUAAAoqQV.jpg:large

Similar error, but contrary to recent history/expectations it was in favour of Labour this time. Some pollsters also did much better/worse than others. Notably YouGov's new polling model ended up coming pretty close to the actual result.

 

[Tired Tyres]

So .8 of a million votes gets the conservatives 51 seats but the lib dems get 12 for 2.3 million votes. Seriously. We need a new system.

 

[TenEightyOne]

So .8 of a million votes gets the conservatives 51 seats but the lib dems get 12 for 2.3 million votes. Seriously. We need a new system.

Which one did you vote for when we were given the choice?

 

[PzR Slim]

Interesting thought, any other Tory leader would have won a majority against Corbyn and any other Labour leader would have won a majority against May. Two of the worst leaders a party has had during an election campaign?

 

[Lizard]

Interesting thought, any other Tory leader would have won a majority against Corbyn and any other Labour leader would have won a majority against May. Two of the worst leaders a party has had during an election campaign?

Or Labour would have won easily without the attempted coup by MPs.

 

[Liquid]

Interesting thought, any other Tory leader would have won a majority against Corbyn and any other Labour leader would have won a majority against May. Two of the worst leaders a party has had during an election campaign?

Brown and Milliband would not have won a majority againt May.

I doubt Kinnock or Foot would have either.

 

[Lizard]

Interesting thought, any other Tory leader would have won a majority against Corbyn and any other Labour leader would have won a majority against May. Two of the worst leaders a party has had during an election campaign?

I think more people like Corbyn than you or the media realise.

 

[Famine]

Or Labour would have won easily without the attempted coup by MPs.

Indeed.

Our local MP did respond to my wife's question about how she can promote Corbyn as the best PM for the country when she doesn't promote him as the best leader for Labour. She essentially came back with "Well, he's Labour so he's automatically better than any Tory" and "Once in power we can work on it".

Aside from the first part being fundamentally untrue (even if you don't want to look up good Tory PMs, it doesn't take too long to find terrible Labour ones... like... the last two), it also dodges the question of how she promotes Corbyn. In fact the second answer looks to me more like "We'll get him out and get someone useful in once we're the government", because knifing the guy in the back once wasn't quite enough.

Bizarrely I almost agree with her in a sense. Corbyn is a terrible leader of that party, but only because that party is still made up of Blair/Brown/Mandelson/Campbell champagne socialists, from root to almost tip. He'd be a very good leader (and I agree far more with his social policies than most other parties) of the Labour party, if only they were still the Labour party

 

[Tired Tyres]

Which one did you vote for when we were given the choice?

AV? What do you think I voted for? Not a difficult one.

 

[Famine]

AV? What do you think I voted for? Not a difficult one.

What was your second choice?

 

[PzR Slim]

I think more people like Corbyn than you or the media realise.

Yet he still couldn't beat an appalling May?

Lord Sugar implored people not to vote for Jeremy Corbyn in the run-up to the election, and now describes Labour's increased vote as "very, very suprising".

He told LBC: "Jeremy Corbyn did a very good job wooing the young and educated people. I would add that those people who voted for him are quite bright and educated, but also not very experienced in life.

"I'm not sure if they really knew what they were voting for, to be honest with you."

What an absolute Jackass he is. So out of touch with the real world.

 

[Sanji Himura]

What an absolute Jackass he is. So out of touch with the real world.

One can make the same argument with May. Especially since she now supports destroying Net Neutrality.

 

[PzR Slim]

One can make the same argument with May. Especially since she now supports destroying Net Neutrality.

You can make the same argument with all of them.

 

[mistersafeway]

Yet he still couldn't beat an appalling May?

May says and does awful things, but since when do Conservative voters pay attention to anything but 'must support leader'? The conversations I had with a Conservative before the election were essentially him trying to justify his support of May, which is fair enough. The problem was that he tried to do it by smearing Corbyn rather than explaining what was good about May, the same tactic as her. The conversation we had about Trident was particularly amusing, Corbyn was too weak because he wouldn't blow up the world rather than just admit defeat, and when I pointed out to him that that was his argument and questioned whether he really wanted to see nuclear weapons used he said no, but that we needed a leader who was seen as somebody who would use nukes because otherwise we may be seen as a target or something. When I pointed out that once nukes are used it's game over anyway, and all (or almost all) world leaders already know that, the conversation just sort of ended. For some reason.

In short, I don't remember seeing arguments for why May was good, they were all for why Corbyn was bad. If both parties had been running a campaign of 'here's why we're right' we'd probably have a majority government one way or the other, but for whatever reason one of the parties was too scared to do that. Maybe it was how they were trying to steal old people's homes and reduce the quality of free education...

 

[PeterJB]

Been nearly 24 hours and still nothing from Kensington.

 

[PzR Slim]

May says and does awful things, but since when do Conservative voters pay attention to anything but 'must support leader'? The conversations I had with a Conservative before the election were essentially him trying to justify his support of May, which is fair enough. The problem was that he tried to do it by smearing Corbyn rather than explaining what was good about May, the same tactic as her. The conversation we had about Trident was particularly amusing, Corbyn was too weak because he wouldn't blow up the world rather than just admit defeat, and when I pointed out to him that that was his argument and questioned whether he really wanted to see nuclear weapons used he said no, but that we needed a leader who was seen as somebody who would use nukes because otherwise we may be seen as a target or something. When I pointed out that once nukes are used it's game over anyway, and all (or almost all) world leaders already know that, the conversation just sort of ended. For some reason.

In short, I don't remember seeing arguments for why May was good, they were all for why Corbyn was bad. If both parties had been running a campaign of 'here's why we're right' we'd probably have a majority government one way or the other, but for whatever reason one of the parties was too scared to do that. Maybe it was how they were trying to steal old people's homes and reduce the quality of free education...

Nope, that didn't answer my question.

 

[Roo]

Which one did you vote for when we were given the choice?

Out of interest, when were we given the choice? Genuine question, not me being snarky.

 

[Famine]

Out of interest, when were we given the choice? Genuine question, not me being snarky.

2011.

In short, I don't remember seeing arguments for why May was good, they were all for why Corbyn was bad.

Two key questions there are:
* If May's campaign was/May herself is so bad, how did the Conservatives get the fourth highest vote count and the third largest share of the vote count of any party in 40 years ?
* If Corbyn's campaign was/Corbyn himself is so bad, how did Labour still get more votes and a larger share of the vote than any party leader since Tony Blair

Honestly, it just doesn't add up. These guys both got a popular vote and share of the vote higher than anything in 20 years. But they're both terrible?

 

[Tired Tyres]

What was your second choice?

You mean this?

At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the "alternative vote" system be used instead?

Then yes because that was all we were offered.

 

[Famine]

You mean this?

(it was an AV joke)

 

[Tired Tyres]

(it was an AV joke)

I know but I'm tired.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Been nearly 24 hours and still nothing from Kensington.

They were given the night off after becoming visibly tired after two counts. Apparently there are 35 votes in it.

 

[mistersafeway]

Honestly, it just doesn't add up. These guys both got a popular vote and share of the vote higher than anything in 20 years. But they're both terrible?

More people voted because they were scared of Corbyn/fed up with being told they had to vote May because Corbyn was scary? It seems like a plausible explanation to me. Also, out of curiosity, do you know people who say they're both terrible? Most of the people I know just think Corbyn is.

 

[PzR Slim]

More people voted because they were scared of Corbyn/fed up with being told they had to vote May because Corbyn was scary? It seems like a plausible explanation to me. Also, out of curiosity, do you know people who say they're both terrible? Most of the people I know just think Corbyn is.

Most people I have spoken to over the past few weeks have mentioned just how bad both May and the Tory campaign has been. My wife said the same about the school she teaches in.

 

[Famine]

More people voted because they were scared of Corbyn/fed up with being told they had to vote May because Corbyn was scary? It seems like a plausible explanation to me.

They had more voters than the last four elections, sure, but the two of them also vastly increased their share too. Corbyn almost topped Blair, and May did.

It hasn't happened since 1970 that both parties scored in excess of 40%.

Also, out of curiosity, do you know people who say they're both terrible? Most of the people I know just think Corbyn is.

Well... I'm one of those people.

 

[PeterJB]

Neither of them are brilliant but Corbyn at least has some awareness of what it's like to be a normal person in this country.

 

[PzR Slim]

Neither of them are brilliant but Corbyn at least has some awareness of what it's like to be a normal person in this country.

Define 'normal person'?

 

[PeterJB]

Define 'normal person'?

Someone with an income under 30k, for example.

Kensington has just gone to Labour by twenty votes.

 

[PzR Slim]

Someone with an income under 30k, for example.

Kensington has just gone to Labour by twenty votes.

You're excluding an awful lot of normal people with that definition.

 

[MeanElf]

Which one did you vote for when we were given the choice?

We had a choice about adopting proportional representation? Forgive me, but I have spent 15 years out of the country so probably missed it. When did we get that choice?