The whole EU-UK vaccine debacle is pretty unedifying and regrettable all round.
I reckon if the EU do block vaccine exports (or, worse still, deliberately hamper vaccine production in the UK), it will be blasted by the international community and rightly vilified. That said, the UK should also be doing more to ensure that exports from the EU are being reciprocated more fairly.
I'm as exasperated as you are! Hope my making these points doesn't come across as being argumentative, or anti-EU for the sake of it, it's just me trying to think rationally about it all.
I can't see it as an "EU-UK" debacle, it's just the EU's (by which I mean jumping straight to threats of lawsuits etc etc as soon as AstraZeneca told them production wasn't going well). The individual countries aren't doing great either, in terms of organising and administering the doses they have got. I've read that around 15 million doses of AstraZeneca have been delivered to the EU, but less than half have been used. In total 48 million vaccines used out of 62.2 million [1]. I guess that means around 45 million doses of Pfizer delivered, compared to about 9 million to UK. That said, 48 million (10% of population) given is significant, and better than many places - if that is so desperately low that export bans are being considered, what good is an extra 10 million (2%) going to do?!
I'd like for the UK to at least be able to say they are exporting vaccines somewhere, but I'd rather see them go where they'd actually be used, and where they'd make a significant difference. I'd have to say that right now I'd pick Canada rather than the EU, since the EU has covered much more of its elderly by now than Canada.
The EU isn't doing us a favour by allowing exports, so no credit is due for that - we have a deal with Pfizer, and their plant happens to be in Belgium. The key point here is that the EU has not given up
any of its contracted supply to anyone else, yet that is what it is expecting of the UK. I wouldn't call that reciprocal at all. That aside, a pro rata export of AstraZeneca would only amount to about 2 million doses [2].
A lot of the AstraZeneca vaccine that's going to be given in the UK over the next weeks has actually come from Pune, India. Yeah, I didn't see that coming! Read that Canada is getting a million or so doses from them, and although it didn't say how many were coming here the implication was significantly more (possibly as much as 10 million) [3]. This has been enabled by Canadian authorities visting Pune to inspect a year or so ago, UK doing the same in December, and a mutual recognition agreement between UK and Canada meaning that our inspection counts for them too. I'd hazard a guess that the only reason there's none going to the EU from Pune is because they haven't inspected the plant (and don't recognise our inspection of it).
All in all, it's not so much a question of whether we should help the EU, it's more whether we could, significantly. As I posted before, we soon need >300k a day just to give second doses within the 12 weeks. About half of those have to be Pfizer if we aren't to be forced into a mix'n'match strategy (close to 10 million doses of each between now and end of May, I think [4]). Once we've done first doses for all over-50s I guess it would be politically acceptable to slow down on first doses. I don't know exactly how much that might free up to export, but seems obvious that it would only be a trickle compared to AstraZeneca's EU shortfall. A token gesture.
So what are our gov's choices? Either stick to the point of principle, relinquish none, be accused of selfishness and face export bans, or offer what we can, have it derided as pathetic, and still be accused of selfishness and face export bans.
(got links to back up the figures on another PC - hope I haven't misremembered any)
edit: close enough...
[1]
tweet. (I believe the total figure tallies with other sources, the AstraZeneca may be slightly out of date). Also reports on the blood clotting cases refer to figures like
5 million doses of AstraZeneca administered in the EU, or
17 million across EU and UK combined.
[2] Calculated as: Pfizer exports to UK / Pfizer deliveries to EU&UK * UK AstraZeneca deliveries: 9m / 57m * 12m = ~1.9m.
[3] 10 million to the UK, timeframe unspecified (
link). Don't know if Ontario health minister has changed mind on over-65s getting it since 4th March, hope so. 2m to Canada, 0.5m (or maybe the 1m I remembered from somewhere?) already in country (
link).
[4] from
yellow card reporting as of 28th Feb, 10.7m Pfizer first doses, 9.7m AstraZeneca first doses, 0.8m second doses (mostly Pfizer), so call it 9.9m Pfizer first doses still need matching between 28th Feb and end of May.