COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Outspacer]

It still bothers me that gov has only tacitly acknowledged the role that schools played in the rise of cases last term (by including them in this lockdown). Nationally, on average, over 3% of secondary school children had covid towards the end of term, so some places would have been well over that. (The ONS data show it to be a fairly steady rise during the term rather than a dramatic peak at the end that one might presume to be the UK variant). That level of infection would clearly be a perfect environment for a variant to arise. Anyway, it bothers me because I believe that most people will act responsibly if presented the facts (including reasonable assumptions).

There's news today of a study done by the University of Warwick which finds that Schools do not play a significant role in community spread of covid. As far as I can tell, the study isn't available to read yet (even as preprint), so I assume it's a press release.

Brief bit from the Telegraph's live feed:

Schools are not a significant driver of coronavirus transmission in the community, a study has found.

There is no hard evidence to suggest that children attending in-person classes - especially at a primary school age - has led to outbreaks in local areas, according to epidemiologists at the University of Warwick.

A significant number of secondary school absences were seen in December amid outbreaks in London and the South East, but researchers attributed this to the more transmissible Kent variant of the virus and generally high case rates.

"During the first two weeks of the November lockdown we observed an increase in pupil absence as a result of infection with Covid-19," said Dr Edward Hill, from the University of Warwick.

"Yet in the following weeks the data indicates that in several regions there was no subsequent rise in Covid-19-caused teacher absence."

It comes as Boris Johnson said that no final decision has been made on whether all pupils will return to school on March 8.

While looking for the latest study, I found a BBC article from June: Fully reopening schools 'could cause second wave' which links to an earlier study by a different group. The predictions they made were startlingly accurate (albeit perhaps for the wrong reasons, however, while a new variant came along, there was also the November lockdown):

They analysed what happens when Reception, Year 1 and Year Six go back at the start of June; followed by all primary school pupils in July; secondary pupils in Year 10 and 12 having some contact in July and all secondary schools going back in September.

The study showed the combined effect on pupils and parents would be enough to cause a second wave without an effective test and trace programme.

This would happen around December 2020 and would be twice as big as the first peak, unless the government took other actions such as re-imposing lockdown.

The new variant was seen in about 1/4 of cases in London at the beginning of Nov, rising to 2/3 by the middle of Dec. Even with hindsight it's hard to pin it as being the main reason for cases rising prior to the Nov lockdown.

I must admit I'm a tad sceptical of the findings of this new study, or at least how it's being reported. Will keep an open mind until I can read it and find out what their methodology was. The study group's previous focus has been on how infection in schools would affect schools, rather than community transmission. If their measure is "teacher absence" then I don't think that's a good proxy for "community transmission", which would have parents as the most likely next link in the chain.

---

edit 16 Feb 01:00: Still haven't found the paper, only the press release. It's rather as suspected: the data into the study consisted of student and teacher absences, along with levels of covid in the community local to the schools. I don't think that is enough to answer the question. It doesn't address asymptomatic cases. It certainly doesn't address the ONS data that showed secondary school age children as having the highest prevalence of any age group (by a significant margin), and barely dipping during the Nov lockdown. Indeed it seems to deny that by specifically noting that "In many regions cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first two weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing" - technically yes, but hardly decreased at all on the national stats.

There's also this: "The researchers observed a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in some regions, with some weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools actually lag behind cases in the surrounding community". Surely they mean absences from school, not cases, since that's the data they say they used? If so, I don't see how they can ascribe "weak evidence" to that direction of transmission hypothesis, as they aren't comparing like for like.

I do expect that the actual paper will be open about its limitations (not that many journalists read them). Dr Tildesley's comments in the BBC article on it caution against reading too much into it, and he says it's a political decision as to how schools open up again.

 

[Jezza819]

John Oliver is back for a new season and talking about the next possible pandemic.

***LANGUAGE WARNING***

 

[ToyGTone]

I been waiting for nearly 2 months now for Pfizer and it looks like they won't deliver any more shots to Bahrain anytime soon. Most of Pfizer's vaccines we got seemed to have went to European Expats and Health care workers.

So I'm stuck with picking between Sinopharm, CoviShield and Sputnik V. The latter two are ones I never heard of until now. I think one of them is Russian and other is Indian maybe? Which one should I go for?

Cases are getting much much worse over here in the Gulf. I think the UK Variant have arrived here like few weeks ago. The fact that the government and businessess were forcing us to attend to the offices until recently was a really stupid dumb move.

My Mum's Uncle is currently in a serious condition and his wife have recently passed away due to Covid unfortunately.

 

[UKMikey]

Sorry to hear about your aunt @ToyGTone. My condolences and I hope you are able to get safely vaccinated soon.

 

[Dennisch]

Well, the Covid-sillies have won an extremely inconvenient case against the government. The curfew that was is place is unlawful and has to stop as of today.

I was already surprised it was allowed in the first place, but still, global pandemonium and all.

 

[ToyGTone]

Sorry to hear anbout your aunt @ToyGTone. My condolences and I hope you are able to get safely vaccinated soon.

Well thanks but she's not my aunt. It's actually my mother's aunt or cousin but still. I didn't expect this to happen to our family and relatives.

 

[Famine]

Well thanks but she's not my aunt. It's actually my mother's aunt or cousin but still. I didn't expect this to happen to our family and relatives.

Your mother's uncle's wife = your great-aunt.

 

[Outspacer]

Today's news here is that there is yet another variant (or variants) with the the E484K mutation, so that's not good at all. The study says 33 cases have been identified in UK, and "It has been seen in other countries too, including Denmark, Nigeria and the US".

So I'm stuck with picking between Sinopharm, CoviShield and Sputnik V. The latter two are ones I never heard of until now. I think one of them is Russian and other is Indian maybe? Which one should I go for?

Yes, Sputnik V is Russian. It appears to have good efficacy (<-- that's an useful word to stick into google for this info) although I don't recall seeing any info about how well it does against variants.

CoviShield seems to just be the brand name for the AstraZeneca vaccine when produced in India. All of the AZ literature should apply, which means not as effective against variants with the E484K mutation.

My Mum's Uncle is currently in a serious condition and his wife have recently passed away due to Covid unfortunately.

Very sorry to hear that.

 

[Joey D]

Seattle woman, 90, walks 6 miles through snow for her COVID-19 vaccine

Somewhere in the distance, The Proclaimers can be heard yelling ta-da-da-ta.

Seriously though, that's some dedication to get jabbed in the arm and it's certainly admirable even if it's a little foolish. I can't help but think though, this would all have been solved with a better distribution network. I'm not sure what the US is doing at this point, but it's not giving anywhere near the number of vaccines it has the capacity to give. Based on the information I learned today, we're hoping to have the capacity to vaccinate upwards of 10,000 people per day just at my organization alone. Now we likely won't hit that number but we're preparing for it in the hopes everything aligns and we can rapid-fire vaccines. We want to do a massive drive-through clinic too at the state fairgrounds where people could just drive up.

Unfortunately, we're still at the mercy of the governor, which one of my co-workers so eloquently put "of course Cox would make Utahns feel unsatisfied." I had to mute my Teams' call because I was laughing so hard.

 

[Danoff]

I was just reading an article on why the decline in COVID is happening in the US. Partly the article was saying that mobility data is showing that people are visiting each other less. And it was suggesting that mask wearing might finally be catching on. The next reason it gave is seasonality, which I find bogus. All of the analysis on seasonality was lined up to suggest we should be in the middle of a surge right now, rather than coming down from one.

But there was a tricky and interesting theory that showed up....

While the US may not be headed to herd immunity, it might just be headed for herd immunity among the population most likely to get the virus. My behavior has not changed, I'm still taking the precautions I was taking last april. If anything, I'm being even more careful (slightly). But barring an interesting statistical event, I'm not the demographic most likely to get the virus. The demographic most likely to get the virus is people who have been being less careful over the past year (for whatever reason, possibly because they have no choice). And that demo just had a bad Christmas. But that demo is also potentially approaching herd immunity.

If 70% of your population is taking great care, and 30% of your population is reckless (or otherwise unable to take care), when 70% of the 30% has gotten the virus, you should see cases drop off. Maybe that's what's happening across the country.

 

[Joey D]

While the US may not be headed to herd immunity, it might just be headed for herd immunity among the population most likely to get the virus.

This is exactly what our epidemiologists are saying and what they believe is the real reason, especially in Utah. Some others who sit on the various COVID committees I'm on also credit Biden for reducing the politicizing of the virus. While there are still politics involved, but the average person who's easily swayed sees the government pushing masks and other measures and just accepts it. No idea how relevant that is though.

 

[Touring Mars]

While the US may not be headed to herd immunity, it might just be headed for herd immunity among the population most likely to get the virus. My behavior has not changed, I'm still taking the precautions I was taking last april. If anything, I'm being even more careful (slightly). But barring an interesting statistical event, I'm not the demographic most likely to get the virus. The demographic most likely to get the virus is people who have been being less careful over the past year (for whatever reason, possibly because they have no choice). And that demo just had a bad Christmas. But that demo is also potentially approaching herd immunity.

If 70% of your population is taking great care, and 30% of your population is reckless (or otherwise unable to take care), when 70% of the 30% has gotten the virus, you should see cases drop off. Maybe that's what's happening across the country.

Add to this that there is likely innate immunity thanks to pre-existing coronaviruses/antibodies and other forms of immunity, and it wouldn't need to be as high as 70% of 30% (or 21%) to have an effect.

The sobering thought, though, is that while the infection figures in America may be high, they could have been a whole lot higher, so it's thanks to those people who have done their bit that healthcare providers were not completely overwhelmed.

The annoying thing is though that a high number of people who didn't bother and who have not been affected in any way will probably take this welcome trend as vindication of their stupidity, and only reinforce that attitude which is not great.

My biggest concern is that the majority of infections become asymptomatic cases and go unrecorded and unnoticed, but there could still be a sting in the tail because the long term impacts of infection and/or reinfection with a different variant are nowhere near understood. I would not bet against SARS-CoV-2 having the last laugh among a fair number of those who got away with it the first time around, though I hope that isn't the case.

I would love to have an antibody test to see if I have had the virus or not. First lockdown I was super-careful, and I have been very careful ever since, but the fact remains that I could have been infected (or even reinfected) and had no clue about it. If I were to test positive for antibodies, I would be very surprised and concerned that someone who has made such an effort can still get the virus; but then again, for all I know, that old man that was sitting next to us in the pub and coughing away back in Feb 2020 may have infected the whole lot of us for all we know.... I'm just glad that thus far none of my family has got sick with Covid, and only a handful of friends have.

 

[Blitz24]

Due to an upcoming storm, I got a text message stating my 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine will be administered this afternoon. Since I got no email and my vaccine card only lists tomorrow, I will let people know if I have any issues but I'm happy that there is some proactive planning in my state.

 

[UKMikey]

I just had my jab. It was Oxford/AstraZeneca.

My mum's octogenarian friend in upstate New York is having trouble getting vaccinated. She's thinking of driving to California to get it because she thinks the movie stars are hoarding the vaccine or something. Apparently it's all Biden's brother's fault or something. Personally I would've thought Trump would've had more to do with the disorganisation than a guy who's only been in office a few weeks.

 

[Joey D]

I just had my jab. It was Oxford/AstraZeneca.

My mum's octogenarian friend in upstate New York is having trouble getting vaccinated. She's thinking of driving to California to get it because she thinks the movie stars are hoarding the vaccine or something. Apparently it's all Biden's brother's fault or something. Personally I would've thought Trump would've had more to do with the disorganisation than a guy who's only been in office a few weeks.

Fun fact, pretty much every health department is limiting vaccine scheduling by zip code to prevent people from jumping areas to get the vaccine. Right now we limit it so much that we've even moved into the numbers after the dash on the zip code which limits things even more (for non-USians a standard zip code is 12345 and the more specific zip code is 12345-1234).

Also, upstate New York to California is a helluva drive. If she does drive, I really hope she knows how to puts chains on because she's going to need them traveling over the various western mountain ranges.

 

[Blitz24]

Fun fact, pretty much every health department is limiting vaccine scheduling by zip code to prevent people from jumping areas to get the vaccine. Right now we limit it so much that we've even moved into the numbers after the dash on the zip code which limits things even more (for non-USians a standard zip code is 12345 and the more specific zip code is 12345-1234).

Also, upstate New York to California is a helluva drive. If she does drive, I really hope she knows how to puts chains on because she's going to need them traveling over the various western mountain ranges.

This 100%.
I have a colleague in New York City who can't get the vaccine at all and is eligible (actually, multiple colleagues). Since all states are getting their own shipments, some states will be done significantly sooner than others. NJ I believe at least 1 million have received a first dose and I think they are trying to make sure they can get as many people with 2 doses as possible.

 

[TB]

Right now we limit it so much that we've even moved into the numbers after the dash on the zip code which limits things even more

The four after the dash is coupled with the address and gets generated automatically by systems that require it so I have a tendency to forget about it.

upstate New York to California is a helluva drive.

It's only 3,000 miles* through some of the worst weather some of the country has seen in recent years. She'll be fine.

*For reference, that's roughly the same distance as London to Amman, @Jordan, but all within the same country.

 

[Blitz24]

The four after the dash is coupled with the address and gets generated automatically by systems that require it so I have a tendency to forget about it.

It's only 3,000 miles* through some of the worst weather some of the country has seen in recent years. She'll be fine.

*For reference, that's roughly the same distance as London to Amman, @Jordan, but all within the same country.

When did boss man move to the Middle East/become a country?

 

[TB]

When did boss man move to the Middle East/become a country?

A long, long, LONG time ago. Surprised you didn't know.

 

[UKMikey]

The four after the dash is coupled with the address and gets generated automatically by systems that require it so I have a tendency to forget about it.

It's only 3,000 miles* through some of the worst weather some of the country has seen in recent years. She'll be fine.

*For reference, that's roughly the same distance as London to Amman, @Jordan, but all within the same country.

It sounds like she needs to rent out Santa's sleigh. They'll have to change the lyrics of the song to "Grandma ran me over with a reindeer".

When did boss man move to the Middle East/become a country?

@Jordan is a man, not Amman.

 

[Outspacer]

While the US may not be headed to herd immunity, it might just be headed for herd immunity among the population most likely to get the virus. My behavior has not changed, I'm still taking the precautions I was taking last april. If anything, I'm being even more careful (slightly). But barring an interesting statistical event, I'm not the demographic most likely to get the virus. The demographic most likely to get the virus is people who have been being less careful over the past year (for whatever reason, possibly because they have no choice). And that demo just had a bad Christmas. But that demo is also potentially approaching herd immunity.

If 70% of your population is taking great care, and 30% of your population is reckless (or otherwise unable to take care), when 70% of the 30% has gotten the virus, you should see cases drop off. Maybe that's what's happening across the country.

I don't know what the estimates are overall for people in the USA who have had it, but I suspect it isn't as much as the 20% or so needed for that theory to be the only explanation. It's doubtless a factor though. A study has estimated that 64% of the Haredi Jewish community in London have had it, compared to 7% nationally and 11% in London. To a lesser (and much less obvious) extent a similar thing has probably happened in various sub-populations, even if the only definition of that sub-pop is that their kids share a school, or they shop at the same supermarket, or whatever.

The really confusing thing is how US cases appear to be falling about as rapidly as UK cases, even though UK has a strict nationwide lockdown in place including 'closed' schools (still open for children of essential workers, which is somehow far more in this lockdown than the one in spring last year). Cases in both countries peaked on 8th/9th Jan. We obviously don't have Thanksgiving, and many of us weren't allowed to have Christmas. All I can think of is that by and large, despite the noisy factions, enough people are doing enough to stay safe when there's clear reason to, even when they aren't forced to.

 

[Danoff]

I don't know what the estimates are overall for people in the USA who have had it, but I suspect it isn't as much as the 20% or so needed for that theory to be the only explanation.

In terms of the actually verified/tested portion of the population that has had covid, it looks like we're sitting at 15% of adults. That would be 70% of 21%. So if 21% of our adult population is the likely portion to get covid, then we've already reached herd immunity (in that group) based on verified/tested cases.

 

[Brett]

I was able to get an appointment for next Friday!

Due to the weather being terrible, my appointment has been pushed back a week. I cannot say I am too upset over it though because I did not want to drive through potentially crap treated roads.

 

[UKMikey]

A few hours since my jab. I got chills, they're multiplying but I'm not losin' control. Slight dizziness and that's it.

(I better shape up...)

 

[Danoff]

A few hours since my jab. I got chills, they're multiplying but I'm not losin' control. Slight dizziness and that's it.

(I better shape up...)

Sounds like you understand

 

[Blitz24]

Currently waiting in observation for about 10 more minutes before I can go home. Very long (45 minute) wait prior to getting inside the building.

 

[UKMikey]

Sounds like you understand

Oh, yes indeed.

 

[DG_Silva]

A few hours since my jab. I got chills, they're multiplying but I'm not losin' control. Slight dizziness and that's it.

(I better shape up...)

If it starts getting worse, the other half found ibuprofen lysine worked extremely well against the side effects. Asda do it, as does Morrisons, Wilco, or Nurofen Express.

 

[UKMikey]

If it starts getting worse, the other half found ibuprofen lysine worked extremely well against the side effects. Asda do it, as does Morrisons, Wilco, or Nurofen Express.

Thanks @DG, a couple of paracetamol seem to have largely done the trick along with whacking the heating up in temperature.

 

[Joey D]

Per the Vital Statistics Surveillance Report released by the CDC, the average life expectancy in the US fell drastically in 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf

Excerpt from the report:

Provisional life expectancy at birth in the first half of 2020 was the lowest level since 2006 for both the total population (77.8 years) and for males (75.1), and was the lowest level since 2007 for females (80.5). Life expectancy for the non-Hispanic black population, 72.0, declined the most, and was the lowest estimate seen since 2001 (for the black population regardless of Hispanic origin). The Hispanic population experienced the second largest decline in life expectancy (79.9) reaching a level lower than what it was in 2006, the first year for which life expectancy estimates by Hispanic origin were produced (80.3). The levels observed for the non-Hispanic white population were last seen in 2005 for the white population.